Innovative measurements in NHDRs: combining creativity with solid methodological ground Presentation delivered at “Making an Impact with National Human Development Reporting”, Training organized by HDRO and BRC, Almaty, 11-15 November 2013 This was a great event, which brought together many people professionally dealing with measuring unmeasurable. I was speaking about tough job of combining creativity with solid methodological ground. The presentation outlines main methodological questions, which forms the solid background for creative measurement of issues, related to sustainable human development. The presentation included practical examples from Kyrgyzstan Local HDI and Municipal Capacity Index ( see more http://undp.kg/en/resources/e-library/article/28-e-library/2489-nhdr-2012-2013 ), Social Exclusion Index used for countries in region ( see more http://europeandcis.undp.org/ourwork/poverty/show/42524883-F203-1EE9-B1013DC9E989F963 ) , Armenia Affordable Human Development Index proposal (see more http://goo.gl/0eFo0k and http://goo.gl/HG5yBL ) and 'Micronarratives' approach with examples from Montenegro ( see more http://goo.gl/Dj4mgM ).

1. Innovative measurements in
NHDRs: combining creativity with
solid methodological ground
“Making an Impact with National Human
Development Reporting”, Training organized by
HDRO and BRC, Almaty, 11-15 November 2013
Mihail Peleah, Human Development Programme and Research
Officer, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center

2. “In God we trust; all
others must bring
data.”

3. Action
opportunity costs
Evaluation
context and knowledge are important
Measurement
every indicator is a proxy
Phenomenon

4. Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Relevant
Time-bound

5. Data and indicators
• Data
– the status of phenomenon
– number
– meaningless out of context
• Indicator
– the status and tendency of phenomenon
– put data in a context  extracts meaning
– combination of two+ sets of data
– progress or regress vis-à-vis certain targets

6. To live "happily ever after."
• Ogre at swamp
• Princess in tower
• Helmet, sword
• Saved princess
• Positive feelings
Externalities?
• Love
• Transformation
• Reproduction
Sustainability?
• Shrek 2
• Shrek the Third

7. Indicators based monitoring chains
Intermediate
Final
Input
Output
Outcome
Financial,
physical
resources
Goods and
services
produced by
inputs
(classrooms
built,
textbooks
provided)
Access to, use
of, and
satisfaction with
services
(enrolment,
repetition,
dropout rates)
Impact
Effect on
dimension
of wellbeing
(literacy)
Plus sustainability and positive externalities

8. What exactly are we measuring?
• Status of phenomenon
– Stock
– Flow
– Input / Output / Outcome
• Sustainability of status
– Ability to sustain
– Efficiency / Effectiveness
• Process
– The way status was achieved
– Dynamics, trends

9. Measuring sustainable human
development
• Triple nature of Sustainable Human
Development
– Process: type of development, focused on people
(“development of people, for people, by the
people”)
– Status: achieved [average] level of human
development in country
– Sustainability: ability to sustain achieved status,
cost at which it is achieved

11. •
Kyrgyzstan: Why Local HDI and
Municipal Capacity Index?
To contrast human development
inputs and outcomes at the level of
municipality
– Municipal Capacity Index—what we have in
municipality?
– Local HDI—what we achieved?
• Clustering municipalities, not ranking
– Data limitations
– Avoiding rank run

12. Kyrgyzstan: Local Self-Governance

14. Social Exclusion Index:
Why the index?
• Objective and multidimensional
measure of social exclusion
• Measures status excluded or non-excluded, not
‘perception’ or ‘risk’
• Applicable for Europe and Central Asia region
• Useful for policymaking

15. Social Exclusion Chain
Individual characteristics
interact
with
Drivers of social exclusion
Structures and institutions; values and
behavior patterns; policies
Drivers are external factors, influenced by
legacies, that either speed up or slow
down the process of individual
vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion
(social exclusion risk factors),
like poor education, disability,
minority status
in context of
Specific local conditions
Predominant industry, single or multiple
employment opportunities, local
infrastructures, history of violent conflict
or environmental disaster
…and result in
Social exclusion status
of the individual in three dimensions—
exclusion from economic life, social
services, and civic and social
participation

16. Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and
local context results in different levels of social exclusion
If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face
high risk of exclusion
…and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions…
+
…while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference
+
…economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education)
+
+ + +
…and much more if you are educated
Source: RHDR ―Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies‖, 2011

17. Armenia AHDI: Why the index?
• Measure what
•
•
•
achieved and at what cost
Measure of development: level and ability to
sustain
Proposed for Armenia, currently tested for Europe
Still a proposal, with open questions:
– Sustainability indicators
– Ideal vs Available indicators
– Dynamics and Substitutions

18. AHDI Construction
Status
Affordability
Context
HDI
EHDI
AHDI

19. Armenia
Long and healthy life
1.000
0.716
0.733
0.571
22%
0.750
4
Development
Human Development Index
Extended Human Development Index
AHDI Affordable Human Development Index
% losses due to non-sustainability
0.500
5
0.250
6
Clean and balanced
environment
7
0.000
Knowledge
Extended Human Development
Index
AHDI Affordable Human
Development Index
Sustainability
A decent standard of living
Long and healthy life
Status
Life expectancy index
Life expectancy at birth
Knowledge
0.855
74.2
Education index
Mean Years of Schooling
Expected Years of Schooling
Affordability
Health Affordability
Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY),
per 1000 pers
0.931
32
Education Affordability
Persistence to last grade of primary,
total (% of cohort)
A decent standard of living
0.758
10.8
GNI index
GNI per capita (USD PPP)
Clean and balanced environment
0.566
5,188
12
0.924
97.7
Standards of living
Sustainability
0.790
General government gross debt (% of
GDP)
35.1
Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per
$1,000 GDP (constant 2005 PPP)
175
Environment Index
Improved water source (% of
population with access)
Air pollution PM10 (micrograms per
cubic meter)
Natural resources depletion (% of
GNI)
Forest area (% of base year, 1990)
Waste management, Improved
sanitation facilities (% of population
with access)
Environmental Affordability
Water withdrawal - Annual
freshwater withdrawals, total (% of
internal resources)
Terrestrial and marine protected
areas (% of total territorial area)
Share of energy from renewable
sources
0.786
98.6
56.2
0.9
75.0
90.2
0.544
36.4
8.0
35.7
Context
Health expenditure, private (% of GDP)
2.6
Health expenditure, public (% of GDP)
2.0
Health expenditure, total (% of GDP)
4.4
Public spending on education, total (%
of GDP)
HDI Loss due to inequality in education
(%)
PISA Score on Mathematics
HDI Loss due to inequality in income (%)
10.8
6.5
GINI index
30.9
..
HDI Loss due to inequality in life
expectancy (%)
Physicians (per 1,000 people)
14.9
3.8
Pupil-teacher ratio, secondary
6.7
Nurses and midwives (per 1,000
people)
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)
4.8
Fixed broadband Internet subscribers
(per 100 people)
Internet users (per 100 people)
2.8
Improved water source (% of population
with access)
Improved sanitation facilities (% of
population with access)
3.7
98.6
90.2
Pupil-teacher ratio, primary
3.2
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100
people)
Firms offering formal training (% of
firms)
19.3
44.0
125.0
30.4
Multidimensional poverty index (%)
National Council on Sustainable
Development
Total Ecological Footprint (global ha
per capita)
Total biocapacity (global ha per capita)
Current
-1.0
14.9
Biocapacity (Deficit) or Reserve (global
ha per capita)
Bird species, threatened
12.0
16.0
Mammal species, threatened
9.0
28.6
Plant species (higher), threatened
1.0
0.0
Final consumption expenditure, etc. (%
of GDP)
Electric power transmission and
distribution losses (% of output)
Informal payments to public officials (%
of firms)
Unemployment, total (% of total labor
force)
Unemployment, youth total (% of total
labor force ages 15-24)
90.8
CO2 emissions (metric tons per
capita)
1.585
45.5
1.7
0.7

21. Why the ‘micronarratives’?
• QxQ—combine the best from Qualitative and
Quantitative research
• Zoom in and Zoom out—see the pattern and
investigate a case study
• Suitable for all stage of policy process:
–
–
–
–
Understanding
Planning
Implementation
Monitoring and Evaluation
• Could be a tool of empowerment and trust
building

22. How it works?
Vestibulum nec libero at
libero condimentum
condimentum ut at
neque.
Past
Maecenas
pellentesque porttitor
lacus, eget venenatis
ipsum eleifend sit
amet.
Present
People tell stories
about the topic and tag
them against some
questions
Future
When we get more and more
stories patterns start
emerge
• easy to catch by human eye, hard
to compute
• less sensitive to number of
stories, more sensitive to topic
Patterns and stories help
identify issues, solutions
and actions
and create feedback
loops, involving people in
solutions and monitoring

23. Where we implement it?
•
•
•
•
Montenegro — Environmentally protected areas
Montenegro — Civil service and civilians
Serbia — Roma people
Belarus, Russia, Ukraine — Chernobyl-affected
areas
• Belarus — people with disabilities
• Georgia, Kyrgyzstan — youth perception of
development
• UNDP — internal business processes

24. Thanks to Borko Vulikic borko.vulikic@undp.org for this case

25. Example: Montenegro
Environmetally Protected Areas
• Cluster of stories re:
–
–
–
–
Communities
Revenues
Source of incomes
Limitations of income or business activities
• Dig into the stories
–
–
–
–
Jeep tours were organized to protected areas
…but they raise dust clouds
…which spoil milk, the raw material for cheese
…cheese is major local commodity and source of incomes
• Solution
– Move jeep trail 500 m from village
Thanks to Borko Vulikic borko.vulikic@undp.org for this case

26. Teamworks:
https://undp.unteamworks.org/node/66611
Www:
http://hdr.undp.org/
http://europeandcis.undp.org/data/
Blogs:
http://europeandcis.undp.org/blog/
Email:
mihail.peleah@undp.org