The document discusses the enduring relevance of neutrality in international relations, arguing that neutrality is a response to conflict that persists despite criticisms and changing global conditions. It highlights historical examples of neutrality arising from various conflicts, positing that new forms of neutrality will develop in response to contemporary issues. The conclusion suggests that as global power dynamics shift, more nations may adopt neutral policies tailored to their unique situations.

1. Neutrality in the
New Cold War
ICAS @ TUJ
(13.6.2023)
Pascal Lottaz, PhD
Associate Professor, Kyoto University
Faculty of Law | Hakubi Center
pascal.lottaz@neutralitystudies.com

2. Outline
1. A Theoretical Framework
2. Case Studies
3. Conclusion
Neutrality
in International Relations
Pascal Lottaz

3. 07.06.23, 08:16
Neutrality and Nonalignment Are Signs of Strength
Page 1 of 5
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/06/ukraine-russia-war-neutrality-nonalignment/
ARGUMENT
An expert's point of view on a current event.
In Defense of Neutrals
Why they’re more than just fence sitters.
By Pascal Lottaz, an associate professor for neutrality studies at Kyoto University, and Heinz Gärtner, a professor at the Department of
Political Science at the University of Vienna.
JUNE 6, 2023, 3:36 PM
The demise of neutrality has been much exaggerated. Finnish membership and Sweden’s
accession application to NATO have been interpreted in some corners as evidence of its decline.
In wars of aggression, refusing to pick sides is untenable, some hold, as they berate those who still
do not send weapons to Ukraine or sanction Russia.
Yet whether critics like it or not, neutrality isn’t going anywhere. Principled stances of neutrality,
always and everywhere, are reactions to conflict. So long as conflict exist, so too will neutrals. Not
even the two World Wars, the 40 years of the Cold War, or 30 years of U.S. unipolarity could get rid
of the so-called fence-sitters—a pejorative to discredit the nonparticipation of third parties to
conflicts. The argument is always the same: Not helping the good side of an epic struggle between
good and evil is equal to doing evil yourself. Yet the very logic of war and conflict ensures neutrals
don’t go away.
That’s because although wars usually devour some neutrals, they always breed new ones: The
Napoleonic wars created Switzerland’s permanent neutrality, and the Belgian revolution against
the Dutch brought about Brussels’s version of the same. The First World War destroyed the latter
but, in turn, inspired Danish and Norwegian neutrality. The Second World War ruined those (and
many more) but birthed Irish, Spanish, Portuguese, and Turkish neutrality. The Cold War did
away with the last three, but gave rise to the neutrality of Austria, Finland, and Yugoslavia—and
the entire nonaligned movement, too. The current war over Ukraine is no exception; it has given
rise to neutral policies in roughly two-thirds of the world. Nonaligned behavior of third states is a
fact of international life and will remain one.
Task
NEUTRAL STATES AND THE POST-COLD
WAR INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
NEUTRAL BEYOND
THE COLD
Edited by
Pascal Lottaz,
Heinz Gärtner,
and Herbert R. Reginbogin
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Neutrality doesn’t go away,
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Neutrality is anywhere and
everywhere a reaction to
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The nature of the conflicts of
the 21st century will define
the nature of its neutralities.
Give a useful way to think about “neutrals” in (current) world politics

4. Argument 1
Neutrality doesn’t go away, but it chages.
1953 1997 2023

5. Argument 1
Neutrality doesn’t go away, but it chages.
Napolenoic Wars: Swiss Neutrality
Belgian Revolution: Belgian Neutrality
WWI: Danish and Norwegian Neutrality
WWII: Irish, Spanish, Portuguese, and Turkish Neutrality
Cold War: Austrian, Finnish, and Yugoslav Neutrality/Nonalignment

6. What Neutrality?
Neutral Countries
Official Policy
Neutrality in
Const. or FP.
FP of Non-
alignment
Analytical Category
Neutralist
Strategies
Neutrality
Discourse
Non-State
Neutral Actors

7. #NotMyWar
B1 B2
A
N
Conflict Constellation
Neutrality in International Relations
(Occasional Neutrality)

8. “Friend to all,
and foe to neither.”
Thucydides

9. Case Study: Oman
“Friend to all,
and foe to
neither.”

10. “Friend to all,
and foe to
neither.”

11. “Friend to all,
and foe to
neither.”

12. “Friend to all,
and foe to
neither.”

13. #NotMyWar
B1 B2
A
N
Conflict Constellation
Neutrality in International Relations
(Occasional Neutrality)

14. Neutrality in International Relations
B6
B5
B3
B4
A
B2
B1
N
N
N
N
N
N
Potential Conflict Constellation
(Permanent Neutrality)

15. Argument 2
Two Paradigms of War
Just War - Paradigm Clausewitzian - Paradigm
Neutrality is anywhere and everywhere a reaction to conflict.

16. Argument 3
The nature of conflicts determines the nature of neutrality

17. Neutrality Today
Post-Cold War (pre-2022)
NEUTRAL STATES AND THE POST-COLD
WAR INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
NEUTRAL BEYOND
THE COLD
Edited by
Pascal Lottaz,
Heinz Gärtner,
and Herbert R. Reginbogin

18. Neutrality Today
Post-Cold War (pre-2022)

19. Neutrality Today
Post-2022

20. Neutrality Today
Post-2022

21. Case Study: India

22. Neutrality Today
Post-2022
https://youtu.be/2R1z5_KBHw4 (min. 20:00 - 23:08)

23. Neutrality Today
Post-2022
https://youtu.be/xsNJQYsqYNk (min 0:00 - 0:12)

24. Case Study: Switzerland

25. The Federal Council Position
Legal neutrality
in the hot
shooting war
Moral / Political
neutrality
Economic
impartiality
(sanctions)

26. Neutrality
Referendeum

27. Conclusion
• Neutrality is moving out of Europe, into other parts of the world
• Countries with ”hard” neutrality laws keep the foreign policy
more readily than those without.
• Most developing nations are trying to maintain multi-directional
foreign policies.
• In the coming multi-polar system we should probably expect
more neutrality policies, not less, but adapted to the conflicts
they will be directed toward.

28. Neutrality in the
New Cold War
ICAS @ TUJ
(13.6.2023)
Pascal Lottaz, PhD
Associate Professor, Kyoto University
Faculty of Law | Hakubi Center
pascal.lottaz@neutralitystudies.com