A half a year ago, the prospect of an LDP presidential election did not inspire flights of the imagination. After all, what could break the hammerlock the top three party factions – the Hosoda, the Aso and the Nikai – had upon the process of selecting the party leader? Who or what could outmaneuver the wily LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro, whom two prime ministers in a row found themselves powerless to budge from his post at the apex of the party’s secretariat? Over the summer of 2021, however, several factors became catalysts for changes in the party’s internal power structures. A presidential campaign like any other had unfolded, with the faction leaders and the party’s senior officials left gasping as erstwhile subordinates have run away with the narrative and the initiative. So many assumptions about how the LDP “works” have been challenged that the unprecedented situation of half of the candidates being women has been largely subsumed. What will we have learned from this election? Michael Cucek will offer his views, along with suggestions of avenues of future research into the contemporary LDP.

1. ICAS
Courtesy:
Institute for Contemporary Asian Studies
ICAS
Temple University, Japan Campus
The End of the LDP as We Know It
7 October 2021
Michael T. Cucek
Assistant Professor, Asian Studies

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• LDP Secretary-General as key power broker
• LDP Factions as peacemaking, spoils-sharing institutions
• Bias against rapid turnover in leaders
• Nikai Faction / Hosoda Faction encomium
Assumptions

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The Suga Tumble
Poli Sci / Asian Studies 2351
Japan in a Changing World Order
M. T. Cucek
NHK recorded Cabinet
Support ratings, first 18
months in office of last
last 11 prime ministers
37
23
20 20
23
34
33
34 34
33
34
38
48 48
44
53
48
51
39
33
17
28
22
28
24
17
22 22
15
9
7
81
85
77
72
74
75
71
77
79
53
51
45
43
39
42
45
55
64
65
59
48
51
41
44 44
50
37
38
29
34
58
54
51
43
41
38
35
21
26
30
33
20
48
46
49
25
20
18 18
30
35
29
21
23
72
70
65
56
52
47
38
32
61
39
41
65
48
31
25
29
21
27
28
25
16
18
60
53
45
37
30
31
33
30
29
27 27
28
31
26
23
64 64
66 66
65
62
57 57
59
58
60
50
54
52
51
52
56
52
62
55
56
42
40
38
40
44
35
37
33
29
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Obuchi
Mori
Koizumi
Abe 1
Fukuda
Aso
Hatoyama
Kan
Noda
Abe 2
Suga
Suga Yoshihide gives up
months

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The Late August gambits
Former Secretary-General
Nikai Toshihiro
Image courtesy: Nippon.com

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The Four Presidential Candidates
KISHIDA Fumio KONO Taro TAKAICHI Sanae NODA Seiko
Images courtesy: LDP home page

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The “Third Termers” Revolt
Image courtesy: Jiji Press
Number of LDP members of
House of Representatives
with their number of
elections to the Diet

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About that title…
Kono Ishida Takaichi Noda
Diet member votes
Party member votes
Total votes
First round of voting, LDP party presidential
election 29 September 2021
Image courtesy: IT Media

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The State of Play in the
members of the Diet as of
September 18
Kono
Ishida
Takaichi
Noda
Image courtesy: Nishinippon Shimbun

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Kono
Ishida
Takaichi
Noda
“Kishida has secured over 30%
support, Kono in the high 20s,
Takaichi is over 20%”
Mainichi Shimbun
September 18

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Maekawa Kihei
An “everything by Corona” (すべてコロナのおか
げである) a LDP leadership race.
- Tokyo Shimbun, October 3
Image courtesy: MHLW
Image courtesy: Nikkan Sports

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The KO-ISHI-KAWA
(⼩⽯河)
Triumvirate
ISHIBA
Shigeru
KOIZUMI
Shinjiro
Image Courtesy: Yomiuri Shimbun

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Takaichi’s provocative campaign
Takaichi with pro-democracy activists from Hong Kong, Tibet
and the Uighur Autonomous Region
Diet Office Building #1, 27 September 2021
Zoom call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen
20 September 2021

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Takaichi’s dogwhistle?
Takaichi Sanae’s bewildering
slogan
suko yukon = “sublime magnificence”
National Press Club
18 September 2021
“Warmth” “Seamless” “Love”
?
Image courtesy: Reuters

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To Own The Press
“Thanks to your efforts, my
fellow Diet members, we
have piled up a big vote
total. We have piled them
up so high we are going to
smack the predictions of
the mass media.”
Image courtesy: Nippon.com

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Obuchi
FATHER PM
Fukuda
FATHER
And
GRANDPA
PM
Image courtesy: LDP home page

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2nd
3rd
3rd
3rd 2nd
4th
Image courtesy: LDP home page

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Image Courtesy: Yomiuri Shimbun
Other media outlets
Asahi Shimbun
Mainichi Shimbun
Kyodo News
45%
49%
55%
Initial Cabinet Support Ratings

18. 18
For comment
Michael T. Cucek
Assistant Professor, Asian Studies
michael.cucek@tuj.temple.edu
The End of the LDP as We Know It