1. 01 JULY – 06 JULY 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1, 180.35 a troy ounce, the earlier low,
and resistance at USD1, 300.55, Monday's high. Uncertainty as to when the Federal
Reserve begins to taper monetary stimulus measures has repelled investors away
from the precious metal, which benefits when monetary policy is loose due to its role
as a hedge to a weakening dollar.
Elsewhere, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
rose to 84.1 for a final reading in June, up from a 82.7 reading the previous month and
also above expectations for a 82.8 reading. The upbeat numbers came in wake of a
report that revealed that the Chicago purchasing managers' index fell to 51.6 this
month from 58.7 in May, exceeding expectations for a decline to 56.0.Any reading
over 50 signifies expansion, which left investors at ease to seek out dollar positions.
Also in the U.S., Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein suggested earlier Friday that
asset purchases may begin to taper in September provided the economy improves,
which further boosted the dollar though gold erased earlier losses and rose on Friday.
In the global market, Brent crude oil prices rose above $103 a barrel on Friday after
US Federal Reserve Governors hinted that the Central Bank is not in a hurry to stop
economic stimulus. Persisting political tensions in the Middle East have been
supporting the commodity movement to certain extent.
On Thursday, the data released by the US Commerce Department showed that
consumer spending in the US rebounded in May showing an increase of 0.3% after a
0.3 % drop in April.
The consumer spending in the US accounts for 70% of the US economic activity.
Though the pace of spending has slowed from the 2.6% annual rate notched in the
first three months of the year, consumers will likely continue to drive growth in the
second quarter.
Also, US jobless claims for unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted
346,000.
MCX Crude Oil
positive;
Persisting
political tensions
in the Middle
East.
MCX Copper
negative on weak
global cues.
Copper prices in the international market remained negative on concerns over
economic recovery in China and recent indication that the US Federal Reserve may
end its monetary stimulus on improving economic conditions in the United States.
On Thursday, the data released by the US Commerce Department showed that
consumer spending in the US rebounded in May showing an increase of 0.3% after a
0.3 % drop in April.
The consumer spending in the US accounts for 70% of the US economic activity.
Though the pace of spending has slowed from the 2.6% annual rate notched in the
first three months of the year, consumers will likely continue to drive growth in the
second quarter.
Copper futures for September delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading
slightly up by 0.45% at $3.073 per pound as of 04.02 PM IST on Friday.
Also, US jobless claims for unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted
346,000.
Gold shoots up
in short covering
on last trading
day of quarter.
3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Jul 1, 5:00am Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
6:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 52.4 52.2
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.6 49.0
7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.6% 0.4%
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 50.5 49.5
Jul 2, 7:30pm Factory Orders m/m 2.1% 1.0%
7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.3 49.0
All Day Total Vehicle Sales 15.3M 15.3M
Jul 3, 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -41.2%
5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 161K 135K
6:00pm Trade Balance -40.3B -40.3B
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 345K 346K
7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.3 53.7
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 0.0M
8:30pm Natural Gas Storage 95B
Jul 4, All Day Bank Holiday
Jul 5, 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 165K 175K
6:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.5% 7.6%
6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.0%
4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
25100 24600 24000 26020 26775 27565
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
39500 37800 36000 41650 43800 45850
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed
downward movement, closed on a
positive note on last session and gave
closing above trend line on daily
charts. Now, if this positive movement
continuous then 26300 will act as
resistance for it. On lower side 25250
will act as strong support for it, if it
gives closing below this then it may
find next support near 24800.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 25750 for the targets of 26250-
26800 with stop loss of 24990.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on its daily charts form
descending broadening wedges pattern,
found support on lower band and gave
strong pull back from it. Now, if it
breaks resistance of 41000 then it may
find next resistance around 44000.
Bearish movement is expected if it
breaks 39700 towards the next support
level of 38500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 41000 for
targets of 42500-44000, with stop loss of
38800.
5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5720 5570 5430 5900 6025 6200
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
402.30 393.50 385.90 414.60 422.50 432
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
bearish to sideways movement broke
downward channel pattern on lower
side but unable to close below lower
band of channel. Now, if it breaks 415
on higher side then breakout of
channel pattern is expected and may
find next resistance around 422. On
lower side if it gives closing below
psychological level of 400 then next
support is seen near 390.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 5870 for the targets of 5970-6100
with stop loss of 5725.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil on daily charts still moves in
an upward channel pattern found
support of 23.6% retracement and pull
back towards the upper band of
channel. Now, if this bull rally
continues then it may find resistance
near 5900. On southward movement it
find strong support in zone of 5580-
5500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be
buy above 415, with stop loss of 405 for
the targets of 422-432.
PIVOT TABLE
