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Weekly Report on Bullions, Base Metals and Energy
1. 23 SEP – 27 SEP 2013
W E E K L Y
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
US gold recorded a decline amid strong trend in equities in Asia on Friday. The yellow
metal recorded a recovery from its recent bearish rally on Thursday and touched a
high of $1375.4 with a gain of $61.7 for December delivery on Globex platform of
Comex.
Gold futures for December delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading
with a loss of $4.5 at $1364.8 per troy ounce as of 10.16 IST on Friday. India gold
futures may continue with its negative trend during intra-day tracking a down trend
on Comex.
Gold futures for October delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was
seen trading down by 0.67% at Rs.30338 per 10 grams as of 10.27 IST on Friday. As of
now, INR is seen trading higher against USD. On Thursday, INR recorded a rise of 161
paise, to close at a more than one-month high. INR was seen touching 61.92 against
USD, an appreciation of 0.40% as of 10.36 IST on Friday. A list of positive data releases
from the United States released on Thursday may have pressured the yellow metal
movement in the global market on Friday.
The trend in crude oil futures for October delivery on India's Multi Commodity
Exchange (MCX) looks sideways to bearish for the day and intra-day traders are
advised to sell on rise. In the global market, WTI crude oil eased to $105.60 per barrel
while Brent Crude fell to $108.69 per barrel as Libyan production has rebounded and
Middle East tensions have eased. And market expects Oil prices will fall further next
week after a U.S.-Russian accord reduced the risk of an American attack on Syria.
Libyan production is expected to rise to 800,000 barrels per day after falling to
150,000 barrels per day earlier this month. It had hit a 2013 high of 1.4 mn barrels in
April, according to International Energy Agency report of September 12. Among other
factors that could push crude oil further into bearish zone is the rise in Saudi Arabian
production and consequent rise in OPEC shipments by 1.4%.
US working gas in storage was 3,299 Bcf as of Friday, September 13, 2013, according
to Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates. This represents a net increase
of 46 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 187 Bcf less than last year at this time
and 18 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,281 Bcf.
MCX Crude Oil
down tracking
NYMEX, Natural
Gas sideways to
bullish.
India Copper
futures sideways
to bullish, US
data eyed.
Comex copper edged up on Thursday and was seen trading positive supported by the
statement from the US federal Reserve that it would continue with its monetary
stimulus program till the economy backs to its solid growth path. Copper futures for
December delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading up by 1.83% at
$3.34 per pound as of 16.24 IST on Thursday. LME copper for delivery in three months
was seen trading up by 1.56% at $7317 per metric ton as of 15.05 IST on Thursday.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and a data on US Existing Home Sales are
scheduled to be released at 19.30 IST today and the copper prices may change their
direction after the data release. Also, a data on US Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing
Jobless Claims and an index on US Current Account are expected at 18.00 IST on
Thursday. A decline in copper stock-piles was also seen supporting the base metal
prices in the global market. Copper stockpiles at LME accredited warehouses declined
for the 10th straight session. The base metal stock-piles have fell 5.3 percent since
September 4. Copper stocks at ware houses monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange decreased 5,816 tons to 151,978 tons this week, as per weekly data
published.
US Gold slips
after recovery,
MCX Gold
bearish amid
firm Indian
Rupee.
3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Sep 23, 6:30pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.1
7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Sep 24, 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 12.5% 12.1%
6:30pm HPI m/m 0.9% 0.7%
7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 79.9 81.5
7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 17 14
10:30pm FOMC Member George Speaks
Sep 25, 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.1% -0.8%
6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.0% -7.4%
7:30pm
New Home Sales 422K 394K
8:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories -4.4M
Sep 26, 6:00pm
Unemployment Claims 319K 309K
6:00pm
Final GDP q/q 2.7% 2.5%
6:00pm
Final GDP Price Index q/q 0.8% 0.8%
7:30pm
Pending Home Sales m/m -0.9% -1.3%
7:40pm FOMC Member Stein Speaks
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 46B
Sep 27, 6:45am FOMC Member George Speaks
3:15pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks
6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.3% 0.1%
6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.5% 0.1%
7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 78.2 76.8
7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.2%
8:15pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks
11:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
29250 28175 27010 30700 31825 33000
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
48450 45800 43020 51800 54150 57100
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD on its daily charts traded
around 50.0% retracement and
consolidated near the trendline acting
as strong support and closed below it.
Now, if it sustain below 29950 then
next support is seen around 61.8%
retracement i.e. 28750. On higher side
30700 is seen as resistance for it above
which it may lead towards next
resistance level of 31150.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 29250 for the target of 28050
with stop loss of 30500.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week showed sideways
movement, and broke important
support of 49250 and strong pull back
took it towards 38.2% retracement due
to FOMC statement but it was unable to
sustain on higher side and closed on
lower note. Now if it able to sustain
below 49200 then it may test next
support level of 46750. On higher side
51800 will act as important resistance.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 48450 for
target of 45800, with stop loss of 51800.
5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6500 6150 5825 6875 7185 7415
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
459 446.50 432 472.10 482.30 494.30
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts broke
strong support of 50% retracement
but unable to sustain below it. On
higher side it found resistance around
38.2% retracement. Now, if it able to
give closing above resistance level of
472 then it may find next resistance
around 485. On lower side 460 is act
as support zone for it below it may
drag towards 61.8 % retracement.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6500 for the target of 6270 with stop
loss of 6810.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week showed downward
movements traded below 61.8%
retracement and also moved in
channel pattern on daily charts. Now, if
it trades below 6480 then it may test
lower band of channel pattren at
around 6270. On higher side 6810 will
act as important resistance above
which break out of channel pattern on
higher side is exepected.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 473, with stop loss of 458 for the
targets of 485.
PIVOT TABLE
