1. 01 JUNE – 05 JUNE 2015
W E E K L Y
R
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P
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
2. MAJOR EVENTS
MCX Gold is trading flat as the expiry of the near month June series is capping
anymajor gains in the counter. COMEX Gold remains under stress after the recent
drop under$1200 with traders eying the FOMC interest rate decision and feeble
sentiments inequities. Stocks extended a worn out momentum yesterday amid
worries about the timing ofthe first Federal Reserve rate. Asian equities are still
witnessing mixed to bearish movesand COMEX Gold is quoting at $1191 per ounce, up
0.20% on the day as a mild recovery fromthree week lows continued. The MCX Gold
futures for August are trading at Rs 27108 per 10grams, almost unchanged on the day.
However, modest gains have emerged in silver. MCXSilver futures are trading at Rs
38390 per kg, up 0.25% on the day. The Euro is quoting just off its one month low
against the US dollar. Data out yesterday showed that the Eurozone economic
sentiment index held steady at 103.8 in May,while it was forecast to fall to 103.5,
survey results from the European Commissionshowed. The April figure was revised up
from 103.7. The industrial confidence index camein at -3 versus -3.2 a month ago.
European Central Bank will not break rules to provideany short-term financing for
Greece, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said onThursday.
Sound German economic data kept oil supported in afternoon. The counter has
elevated onfalling US crude inventories after the commodity tested its one month
low in last session.The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly
petroleum status reportThursday, a day later than usual due to the Memorial Day
holiday. US commercial crudeinventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels last week,
maintaining a total US commercialcrude inventory of 479.4 million barrels. This data
supported the counter even as the USequities eased. The WTI Crude currently quotes
at $58.32 per barrel, up 0.1.10% on theday. MCX Crude oil futures are trading at Rs
3736 per barrel, up 1.85% on the day. MCX Natural gas futures are trading at Rs
173.40 per mmbtu, down 0.29% on the day. Crude is expected to find a decent
support after recent declines following the slow butsteady deterioration in US
commercial inventories. Falling gasoline inventories are alsoauguring positive for oil
prices. Heading into the summer peak driving season, totalgasoline inventories
decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week, according to the EIA, butremain near the
upper limit of the five-year average range.
WTI Oil Holds
Above $58 After
Recent Pullback.
Copper Faces
Worst Monthly
Drop Since January
2015.
Copper prices declined yet again in International markets making it the worst monthly
performer since January 2015. However prices were keeping a cautious tone on the
back of expectations of Chinese stimulus measures. A weaker dollar offered some
support to metals as prospects for a Greece debt deal buoyed the Euro.
In Japan, among a slew of data industrial output rose 1.0% provisionally month-on-
month, better than the 0.8% gain seen and the first gain in three months. Household
spending however fell 5.5% month-on-month in April, while national core CPI gained
0.3% year-on-year, painting a mixed picture on spending and prices. The CPI data
comes as the Bank of Japan has reset efforts to boost inflation to sustained 2% from
around zero by 2016. Elsewhere, there were little developments in Brussels where
Greek officials continued to meet with representatives from the International
Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission in an effort to
reach an agreement on a bailout that could unlock critical aid the beleaguered nation
may require to stave off bankruptcy. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 390.5 per kg when
last checked. The prices tested a high of Rs 393.95 per kg and Rs 389.4 per kg.
MCX Gold
Witnesses Flat
Trades, Silver
Rises.
3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
June 1 6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.2% 0.4%
6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.0%
7:00pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53.8
7:30pm
ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.5
7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.7% -0.6%
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 43.0 40.5
June 2 7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -0.0% 2.1%
7:30pm
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.8 49.7
All Day
Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 16.5M
June 3 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 169K
6:00pm Trade Balance -44.2B -51.4B
7:15pm
Final Services PMI 56.5 56.4
7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.8
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.8M
11:30pm Beige Book
June 4 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 52.8%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 277K 282K
6:00pm Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q -2.8% -1.9%
6:00pm Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 5.8% 5.0%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 112B
9:30pm
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
June 5
All Day ALL
OPEC Meetings
6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 226K 223K
6:00pm Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.4%
6:00pm
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1%
10:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
June 6 12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 16.5B 20.5B
4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26700 26385 26080 27055 27365 27685
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
37900 36950 36000 38950 39775 40600
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed bearish movement,
and gave breakout of rising wedge
pattern on lower side and took the
support of 26700. Now, if it is able to
sustain below 26700 then next major
support level is seen in the range of
26500-26400. On other hand
maintaining above 27000 bullish
movement may move it towards the
resistance range of 27250-27500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 26700 for the target of 26400
with stop loss of 27250.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
downward movement and gave the
breakout of 38850 and drag towards
the next support level of 38000 and
closed above it. Now, if it sustain
below 38000 then next support range
may seen at 37500-37000. On higher
side maintaing above 39100 will again
pull it towards the resistance level of
40600.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 38000 for
the target of 37000, with stop loss of
39200.
5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
3715 3570 3425 3910 4060 4235
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
393.40 376.30 367.80 394.50 404.35 415
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
downward movement and gave
breakout of its important support level
of 395 and found the support of
trendline and closed at support level
of 385. Now, if it sustain below 385 on
lower side then next important
support level is seen around 370. On
the other hand if some corrrection
happens then 400 will act as
important resistance level.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
buy above 3900 for the target of 4150,
with stop loss of 3650.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
bearish movement but not able to
sustain below 3715 and gave strong
pullback on last trading session and
closed near to its resistance level of
3890. Now, if it maintains above 3900
in coming sessions then next
important resistance level is seen
around 4000. On the other hand 3715
again will act as important support
level below which drag towards 3575.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 383, with stop loss of 400 for the
target of 370.
PIVOT TABLE
