The report discusses market trends from May 18-22, 2015, highlighting bullish movements in gold prices driven by weak U.S. economic data and expectations of a rise in interest rates. In contrast, crude oil prices have been bearish due to profit booking and increased supply concerns, while copper production in China has dropped to a one-year low. Key economic indicators are also noted, with upcoming forecasts on U.S. retail sales and production metrics that could impact market directions.

1. 18 MAY – 22 MAY 2015
W E E K L Y
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P
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
MCX Gold June future prices are trading bullish on negative economic data of US and
weak USD/INR. Prices may accelerate further on weak US and Chinese data forecast.
Comex Gold has been roar in previous session and sustain above crucial resistance of
$1200. Comex Gold prices likely to trade higher till $1230 in near term.
MCX Gold future prices likely to follow global trend and probable to trade higher till
28000. Support: 27200/27000 and resistance: 27800/28000. Gold rose two percent to
above $1,200 an ounce on Wednesday, heading for a second session of gains as the
hit a near three-month low after disappointing U.S. employment data.
U.S. retail sales were also unchanged in April as households cut back on purchases of
automobiles and other big-ticket items, suggesting the economy was struggling to
make a strong rebound after barely growing in the first quarter.
A top Fed official said he did not know when interest rates would rise, but tempered
that uncertainty by applauding an apparent consensus between markets and the U.S.
central bank that it would happen later this year.
MCX Crude Oil prices are trading bearish on profit booking seen by traders. Oil prices
were unable to sustain above resistance of $60 BPL. Nigerian Oil at Akwa has began
its production weigh on long bets by traders. PratikPatel, Research analyst at
Commodity Online, said overall prices for Oil are likely to correct on increasing
supply. MCX Crude Oil trading range: Support 3760/3720; resistance 3840/3880. On
Friday(11.53 am), MCX Crude Oil May contract has been trading 0.58 per cent to
3798 levels.
Trading was choppy on Thursday as market participants tried to square bullish
factors, including recent drops in U.S. inventories, spot demand for crude in Asia and
Middle East unrest, with basic supply fundamentals of historically high inventories
and ample production. China, the world's top energy consumer, lost more economic
steam in April despite easing monetary policy, while Europe's largest economy,
Germany, slowed in the first quarter. In the United States, retail sales were flat in
April, curbing hopes of a sharp rebound in growth in the second quarter. A surprise
increase in output in March from the No. 2 U.S. Oil producing state.
MCX Crude Oil
trading bearish on
profit booking.
Copper Output in
China Falls To One
Year Low.
The copper producers in China have finally realized that there over enthusiasm in
Copper will led them nowhere. Copper output is very likely to face tough times as
producers have slashed there capacities. The reflection of the same was seen in the
latest refined Copper production numbers from China. The production of Copper in
China marked the lowest levels witnessed since April 2014. The total Copper
production was 603498 tonnes in April 2015 compared to 636351 tonnes in March
2014. The data was released by National Bureau of Statistics, China. It has been noted
that the yearly numbers of refined Copper production was still higher. The April output
was 6.8 per cent up from a year ago. In the first 4 months of 2015, the production rose
11.9 per cent from a year ago to 2.44 million tonnes, the data showed.
It has also been noted that maintenance activity will start by Copper producers in
May-June months that can release Copper of the hook of bears. Meanwhile, prices
have been riding choppy in last one week due mixed set of news in the markets about
demand and supplies. Domestic Copper is failing to find its foot above Rs 420 at the
moment, and had slipped in the last trading session on the back of profit booking. On
the lower side, Copper is supported at Rs 405 per kg.
MCX Gold to
follow global
trend; may trade
higher till 28000.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
May 18 11:30am FOMC Member Evans Speaks
7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 57 56
May 19 6:00pm Building Permits 1.06M 1.04M
6:00pm Housing Starts 1.02M 0.93M
May 20 12:30pm
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
8:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories -2.2M
11:30pm FOMC Meeting Minutes
May 21 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 267K 264K
7:15pm
Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.6 54.1
7:30pm
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8.3 7.5
7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.23M 5.19M
7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.3% 0.2%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 111B
11:00pm FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
May 22 4:30am FOMC Member Williams Speaks
6:00pm CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
6:00pm
Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
27270 27000 26695 27600 27900 28250
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
39090 38250 37350 40600 41650 42750
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed bullish movement,
broke the resistance of 27000 and
closed around its important resistance
level of 27500. Now, if it is able to
maintain above 27600 then next major
resistance level is seen in the range of
28000-28250. On other hand
sustaining below 27000 bearish
movement may drag it towards the
support level of 26500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 27700 for the targets of 28200-
28500 with stop loss of 26900.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
upward movement and after giving the
breakout of trendline it tooks the
resistance of psychological level 40000.
Now, if it maintains above 40000-
40600 then next resistance is seen in
the range of 41500-42000. On lower
side sustaining below 39000 will again
drag it towards the support level of
37500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 40200 for
the target of 41500, with stop loss of
38400.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
3715 3570 3425 3870 4000 4140
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
406.20 397.50 387.65 417 426.70 435
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways movement and closed
around its important support level of
410. Now, if it maintains on higher
level then next important resistance is
seen around 421 above which next
resistance level is 430. On the other
hand if it sustain below the support
level of 410 then it will drag towards
the next support level of 400.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 3700 for the target of 3500,
with stop loss of 4000.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement but not able to
hold above 4000 and steep fall drag it
towards the support level of 3715.
Now, if it sustain below 3700 in coming
sessions then next important support
level is seen around 3570. On the other
hand 3850 will act as important
resistance level above which again it
will move towards the resistance level
of 4000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
on dips, with stop loss of 400 for the
targets of 424-432.
PIVOT TABLE

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