1. Weekly Commodity tips
Commodity Weekly Report for 11/Mar./2013 – 16/Mar./2013
Gold falls as strong U.S. jobs figures hint at recovery
Gold fell 1 percent in earlier trade, stocks markets rose and the dollar leapt after data showed
U.S. employers added 236,000 jobs last month, well above an expected 160,000, pushing the
unemployment rate to a four year-low. If the unemployment rate does come down and register a
figure below the current estimate of 7.9%, there are apprehensions that the Fed may take it as a
signal to phase out the QE measures. This can sap the liquidity and thereby snap the potential
bull runs in commodities.
Upbeat U.S. data has fuelled appetite for riskier assets such as stocks at gold’s expense and
raised speculation the Fed may consider reining in its ultra-loose monetary policy. That has
supported gold’s recent rally, by pressuring long-term interest rates and stoking inflation
concerns. “The fact that the strongest economic data in a while failed to trigger a break below the
recent low (has given) the market a bit of confidence, so we are seeing a classic Friday short
covering exercise,”. But the pace of gains is still below the roughly 250,000 jobs per month that
economists say is needed to significantly reduce unemployment, as the Federal Reserve hopes to
achieve with its very accommodative policy.
China Crude Oil import down 9% y/y to 5.43 mb/d in Feb 2013.
Crude oil imports of china pulled back 17% m/m, to 5.43 mb/d (down 9% y/y), and imports in
the first two months of the year averaged 5.7 mb/d, down 1% from last year’s highs, when China
was filling the SPR, according to Barclays report. Refiners may also be taking a breather from
months of strong imports ahead of the spring maintenance season.
Product imports of the country were flat at 890 kb/d, while exports also held at 570 kb/d, keeping
net imports steady at 280 kb/d. Chinese refiners likely continued to export gasoline and diesel as
the fuel market remained well supplied during the holiday season, but product stocks are now
back at seasonal levels.
Meanwhile, China’s total exports rose by 21.8 percent year-on-year in February exceeding
economists’ forecasts and imports of the country declined more than expected during the month,
falling 15.2 percent, according to General Administration of Customs data. It had been expected
that the exports will rise by 8.1 percent and imports will fall by 8.5 percent.
Slow demand from China; MCX Copper bearish.
Slow demand from Chinese manufacturing industries has impacted Base metal prices. China’s
latest property market curbs have stirred heated discussion, with experts close to policymakers
saying China will try to control the side effects of the measures.
Copper prices at LME markets declined to $7699 levels yesterday. U.S jobless claims release is
likely to be announced in later session may impact the metal prices. Weakness in Dollar Index
may reflect current prices.

2. Decline in LME markets and weak dollar index has impacted prices. U.S and Euro zone
manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) is likely to be announced in later session
may pressurize the base metal pack.
Outlook on U.S unemployment rate and LME markets may reflect Copper prices. Selling
pressure and moderate volumes may impact the markets in later session
MCX GOLD Technical Trend
MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement and found strong support of 29100 but
unable to sustain around this level. Now if it able to break this support then next support is seen
around 28750. On higher side 29780 will act as resistance for it, only above this strength may be
seen towards the next resistance of 30150.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 29100 for the targets of 28750-28500 with stop
loss of 29575.
MCX SILVER Technical Trend
MCX SILVER last week showed choppy movement and found previous support of 53800. Now
on lower side if it is able to break 53800 then only selling pressure drag it towards the next
support level of 52700. On higher side 55550 will act as strong resistance for it above this it may
test next resistance i.e. 56700.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 56100 for the target of
57500, with stop loss of 54500.
MCX CRUDEOIL Technical Trend
Crude oil last week followed sideways movements and found support of 50% retracement i.e.
around 4970 and move in the range of 5010-4925 while closing above 4970 indicates buying
streangth seen above 5010. On lower side 4925 will act as strong support for it.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 5050 for the target of 5130-5170 with stop
loss of 4925.
MCX COPPER Technical Trend

3. MCX Copper still moved in consolidation range near its strong support i.e. 423.95. Now if it
breaks this strong support with high volume then it may drag towards next support level i.e. 418.
On higher side if it sustain above 428.50 then it may face next resistance around 434.
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell below 423.95, with stop loss of 434 for the targets
of 418-414.
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