1. 05 AUG – 10 AUG 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTS
With the US Dollar gaining strength, the futures of gold on the Comex dropped by
1.93% and was seen trading at $1285.55 in December contract. Gold on the MCX for
delivery on October was seen trading at Rs.27419/ ten grams, a loss of 1.82% as of
12.38 PM IST. The US Dollar index gained 0.03% and was at 82.45 as of 12.39 PM IST.
The weakness in Indian Rupee is capping the losses in the commodity to a major
extent. The Indian Rupee was seen trading at 60.831, a gain of 0.265 or 0.44% as of
12.48 PM IST. The US Non farm pay rolls data scheduled this evening at 06:00 PM may
turn out to be positive for Bullion commodities.
US unemployment rate data is scheduled for 06.00 PM IST as well. The data is forecast
to give a reading of 7.5% for July. June data had said that US unemployment
accelerated by 7.6%. The US Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing measures has been
tethered to job market recovery in US as well as to moderate inflation. A positive job
data picture would make the US Federal Reserve taper on stimulus measures, markets
believe. This can have detrimental effect on gold futures with risks skewed heavily to
the downside.
The trend in crude oil futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity
Exchange (MCX) looks sideways to bullish. Crude oil prices in the global market were
seen trading positive on strong manufacturing data from Europe, the United States
and China. Also, Middle East tensions, disruption to crude oil production in Africa and
and maintenance activity in the North Sea were seen supporting the crude oil prices
to certain extent. Concerns over supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria were
also supported the prices.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production
averaged 30.25 mn barrels per day (bpd) in July, down from 30.38 mn bpd in June, as
per a Reuters survey published on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, The UK Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the
construction sector offers new hope that the UK economy is improving. UK recorded
a strongest construction output growth since June 2010, led by surge in housing
activity.
MCX Crude Oil
sideways to
bullish on firm
global cues.
MCX Lead, Nickel
bullish; US
unemployment
declines to 7.4%
in July.
The trend in lead futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange
(MCX) is bullish and is expected to continue with the trend for the day.
MCX lead for August delivery was seen trading up by 1.33% at Rs.129.85 per kilogram
as of 05.58 PM IST on Friday.
MCX nickel for August delivery was seen trading up by 0.70% at Rs.852 per kilogram as
of 06.01 PM IST on Friday. US Census Bureau is scheduled to release its data on factory
orders at 07.30 PM IST today. MCX base metals were seen trading bullish on strong
manufacturing data from Europe, the United States and China.In the United States,
total non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and the
unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported on Friday. Employment rose in retail trade, food services and drinking places,
financial activities, and wholesale trade.
Meanwhile, US personal income increased $45.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable
personal income (DPI) increased $33.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in June, according to the
Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Crash in Comex,
MCX Gold
futures as Dollar
index climbs.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Aug 05, 7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.2 52.2
Aug 06, 6:00pm Trade Balance -43.1B -45.0B
7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.83M
7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.9 47.1
10:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Aug 07, 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M
10:30pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.67I2.6
Aug 08, 12:30am 10-y Bond Auction 15.3B 19.6B
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 336K 326K
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 59B
10:30pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.66I2.3
Aug 09, 7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% -0.5%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
27385 26630 25710 28300 29010 29751
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
40440 39500 38500 42700 44250 45850
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed bullish movements
in first two trading session of last week
and after that took correction on lower
side and it also took resistance of 50%
retracement but unable to close above
it. Now, 27600 will act as strong
support for it, closing below this it may
drag to next support of 27000. On
higher side if it sustains above 38.2%
retracement then 28650 will act as
important resistance.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 27350 for the target of 26700-
26500 with stop loss of 28200.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on weekly charts made
higher highs but unable to sustain on
higher levels and also made bullish
rising wedge pattern. According to daily
chart 42600-43500 is seen as important
resistance range sustaining above which
it may result in bull rally. On lower side
if it gives closing below lower band of
wedge pattern then 40400 will act as
major support.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 40400 for
targets of 39500-39000, with stop loss of
41600.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6400 6150 5940 6640 6750 6900
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
420 406.40 393.30 432.30 440 450
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week broke trendline
on daily charts and closed above it and
also took important resistance i.e.
432.30. Now, if it maintain above 433
then 438 will act as important
resistance for it. On other hand if it is
not able to break the level of 433 then
again bears may gain momentum and
it may drag towards 420.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 6640 for the targets of 6800 with
stop loss of 6470.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week found important
support around 23.6% retracement i.e.
6170 and strong pullback carried it
towards new life time high. On last
trading session it made a reversal
pattern due to US data. Now, if it take
some correction then important
support is seen around 6400. On
higher side if it able to sustain above
6640 then new highs is expected.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell
on highs, with stop loss of 435 for the
targets of 420.
PIVOT TABLE

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