1. 2 SEPT – 2 SEPT 2013
W E E K L Y
R
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P
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T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold futures in the global market edged down on Friday amid some positive economic
data releases from around the globe and concerns that whether US Central Bank
continue with its monetary stimulus or not. Earlier, the yellow metal has broken an
important support level of 32800. MCX gold futures for October delivery was seen
trading down by 3% at Rs. 32639 per 10 grams as of 03.25 PM IST on Friday.
Appreciation of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar is expected to pressurize the
yellow metal prices to certain extent on MCX. INR was seen touching 66.03 against
USD, an appreciation of 2.02% as of 03.39 PM IST on Friday. In August the Economic
Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased sharply by 2.7 points in the euro area (to 95.2) and
3.1 points in the EU (to 98.1). The indicator rose for the fourth successive month in
both regions, marking a two-year high in the EU, according to the data released by the
European Commission on Friday. Real gross domestic product the output of goods and
services produced by labor and property located in the United States increased at an
annual rate of 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2013, according to the second
estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP
increased 1.1 percent.
US natural gas futures edged up on Friday and was seen trading positive for a fifth
consecutive day supported by the speculation that above normal weather may raise
demand for natural gas in the United States. NYMEX natural gas futures for October
delivery was seen trading with a gain of 0.012 at $3.631 per mmBtu as of 02.36 PM
IST on Friday. Above normal temperature forecasted across the United States over
next five days would hover over Texas, the Northeast and other parts of the Midwest
through September 07, as per weather reports.
A rise in US natural gas inventories is seen putting pressure on the natural gas prices
to certain extent in both domestic and international market. A weekly US natural gas
stocks-piles data by Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday showed a
rise in natural gas inventories when compared to the last week. In the United States,
working gas in storage was 3,130 Bcf as of Friday, August 23, 2013, according to EIA
estimates. This represents a net increase of 67 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks
were 235 Bcf less than last year at this time and 45 Bcf above the 5-year average of
3,085 Bcf.
US Natural Gas
rises amid weather
concerns; MCX
Natural Gas
sideways to
bullish.
MCX Nickel,
Copper, Lead,
Zinc tumble on
positive UK data,
strong Rupee.
With the UK House Price Index meeting the estimated figures of 0.6%, the base metals
futures on the London Metal Exchange tumbled as Pound strengthened.
As of 12.13 PM IST: MCX Aluminium September contract is down by 2.20% at
Rs.120.60/kg. MCX Copper November contract down by 1.8% at Rs.488.70/kg . MCX
Lead September contract down by 2.25% at Rs. 144.9/kg . MCX Zinc September
contract down by 2.3% at Rs.125.95/kg .
Profit booking and strengthening of Indian Rupee have also added to the slide. The
base metals had climbed in the previous days on back of weakening Rupee. As of 12.20
PM IST, Indian Rupee was spotted trading at 66.5 against USD as RBI measures lifted
the currency up.
The House Price Index is a measure of change in the selling price of homes backed by
mortgages in UK. The data provides indication as to where UK's housing inflation
stands. Indian GDP data expected by around 05.30 PM IST is also expected to impact
base metal prices in the evening session.
COMEX, MCX
Gold bearish
amid positive
data releases.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Sep 02, All Day Bank Holiday
Sep 03, 6:30pm Final Manufacturing PMI 53.9 53.9
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 55.4
7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.3% -0.6%
7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.2 45.1
7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 51.6 49.0
Sep 04, 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 2.3%
6:00pm Trade Balance -38.6B -34.2B
All Day
Total Vehicle Sales 15.8B 15.7M
11:30pm
Beige Book
Sep 05, 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 200K
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 330K 331K
6:00pm Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.5% 0.9%
6:00pm Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 1.0% 1.4%
7:30pm ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.2 56.0
7:30pm Factory Orders m/m -3.2% 1.5%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 67B
8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories 3.0M
Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings
Sep 06, 5:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks
6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 181K 162K
6:00pm Unemployment Rate 7.4% 7.4%
6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% -0.1%
Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings
11:00pm FOMC Member George Speaks

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
32450 31440 30240 33650 35075 35600
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
53250 49900 46250 58200 61200 64300
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week made all time
high and test psychological level of
35075 due to weakness in Rupee but
unable to sustain on high level and
drag to 23.6% retracement. Now if it
trades below 32650 then it may test
38.2% retracement near support level
of 31160. On higher side if this bull
rally continues then 34000 will act as
important resistance for it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy
above 33650 for the target of 35000
with stop loss of 32400.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER (DEC.) last week showed
bullish movement, took resistance
around upper band of channel and
lower band of triangle on weekly chart,
also made reversal pattern shooting
star. Now, if it able to sustain below this
then it may find support of 52100. On
contrary if it breaks resistance of 58200
then next resistance is seen around
upper band of channel.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 54350 for
target of 50600, with stop loss of 58200.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
7000 6630 6175 7515 7800 8000
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
473 459.50 440 500 515 530
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week made new life
time high and sharp correction seen in
it. Now, 38.2% retracement i.e. 481.50
is act as immediate suport for it below
which it may drag towards next
important support of 50% retracement
i.e. 469. On higher side if it able to
maintain its bull rally then 497 is act as
resistance for it which is its 23.6%
retracement.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 7150 for the targets of 7000-6900
with stop loss of 7355.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week showed bullish
movement and made new all time high
but unable to suatain on higher levels
and took support of 38.2%
retracement. Now if it holds below this
then 6990 will act as major support.
And on contrary 23.6% retracement
i.e. 7420 will act as near resistance for
it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 479, with stop loss of 500 for the
targets of 468-459.
PIVOT TABLE

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