1. 16 SEP – 21 SEP 2013
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold prices continued their bearish trend on Friday on concerns that US Central Bank
end its monetary stimulus later this year. The yellow metal is expected to end this
week on a bearish note on Comex. Gold futures for December delivery on Globex
platform of Comex was seen trading down by 1.51% at $1309.9 per troy ounce as of
14.27 IST on Friday.
Depreciation of Indian Rupee (INR) against US Dollar (USD) is expected support the
commodity prices to certain extent during intra-day trade. INR was seen touching
63.74 against USD, a depreciation of 0.44% as of 15.40 IST on Friday. This week, gold
prices in the global market remained under pressure on concerns that US Federal
Reserve may start curbing its monetary stimulus later this year on improving
economic condition in the United States and around the globe. In the early Asian
trading hours the yellow metal prices edged up on slightly on Physical demand.
Meanwhile, the number of persons employed decreased by 0.1% in the Euro area
(EA17) and remained stable in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2013 compared with
the previous quarter, according to national accounts estimates published by Eurostat,
the statistical office of the European Union on Friday.
US crude oil declined on Friday and continued its downward movement. The
commodity was seen trading bearish amid Russia and the United States started to
find a diplomatic solution to persisting Syrian issue. Earlier in the last week, crude oil
prices recorded a significant up-tick supported by the concerns that crude oil supply
may get disrupted, if the United States start a military action against Syrian forces in
response to alleged chemical weapons attack on Syrians by Syrian forces.
Demand for crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
in 2014 would be 29.2 million barrels per day (mb/d). The figure is 1.3 million lower
than current production by OPEC, as per the estimates by International Energy
Agency (IEA). Global crude oil supply is estimated to have fallen by 770 kb/d in August
to 91.59 mb/d, with both non‐OPEC and OPEC registering monthly declines. For the
full third quarter, non‐OPEC production is expected to rise by 520 kb/d quarter-on-
quarter as a seasonal decline in the North Sea is more than made up for by North
American growth and steady production elsewhere, as per IEA estimates.
NYMEX Crude Oil
bearish, MCX
Crude Oil may
decline till 6800.
US initial jobless
claims drop; MCX
Lead bearish,
Nickel sideways.
India lead futures are continuing its downward trend on Thursday and are expected to
continue with the trend for the day. Lead witnessed a sharp decline on London Metal
Exchange (LME) on Thursday. However, depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar
(USD) limited further decline in the base metal prices to certain extent in Indian
futures market.
MCX nickel prices are likely to trade in a narrow range and further selling pressure is
expected only below the support level of 867. On upper side, sustaining above 885
level may push the prices till 895 level.
MCX lead for September delivery was seen trading up by 0.33% at Rs.876 per kilogram
as of 18.10 IST on Thursday.
In the United States, in the week ending September 7, the advance figure for
seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims were 292,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the
previous week's unrevised figure of 323,000. The 4-week moving average was
321,250, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average of 328,750,
according to the data released by the Department of Labor.
US stimulus
concerns hit
Gold prices;
COMEX, MCX
Gold bearish.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Sep 16, 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.2 8.2
6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate 77.8% 77.6%
6:45pm Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.0%
Sep 17, 5:45pm Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
6:00pm CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases -45.3B -66.9B
7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 59 59
Sep 18, 6:00pm Building Permits 0.95M 0.95M
6:00pm Housing Starts 0.93M 0.90M
8:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories -0.2M
11:30pm
FOMC Economic Projections
11:30pm
FOMC Statement
11:30pm
Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
Sep 19, 12:00am FOMC Press Conference
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 323K 292K
6:00pm Current Account -96B -106B
7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.27M 5.39M
7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10.5 9.3
7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.6%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 65B
Sep 19, 10:00pm FOMC Member George Speaks
10:10pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
10:25pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
29333 28175 27010 30680 31970 33200
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
49000 46700 44100 51800 54510 57300
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD on its daily charts found
important support of trend line and
closed near to 50.0% retracement.
Now, immediate support is seen near
29500 sustaining below which it may
find next support around 61.8%
retracement i.e. 28750. On higher side
31150 is seen as resistance for it above
which it may lead towards next
resistance level of 32000.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 29500 for the target of 28750
with stop loss of 30700.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week showed bearish
movement, and broke important
support of 53100 and took support of
50% retracement. Now if it able to
sustain below 49150 then it may test
next support level of 46750. On other
hand if it able to sustain on higher level
then it may find resistance of 51750
above which bulls can become active.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 49100 for
target of 46800, with stop loss of 51800.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6775 6565 6400 7000 7180 7380
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
451.50 437.30 421.50 466.50 482.50 497
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts broke
strong support of 472 and closed
around 50% retracement. If it able to
sustain below this then next support is
seen around 61.8% retracement i.e.
447. On higher side 468 is seen as
resistance for it closing above it shows
strength in it towards next resistance
level of 472 and bulls can become
active.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
above 7040 for the targets of 7270 with
stop loss of 6770.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week showed downward
movements found support around
61.8% retracement and also moved in
channel pattern on daily charts. Now, if
it trades below 6775 then it may test
lower band of channel pattren at
around 6600. On higher side 7040 will
act as important resistance above
which break out of channel pattern on
higher side is exepected.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 454, with stop loss of 473 for the
targets of 441.
PIVOT TABLE

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