1. A PLANET AT RISK MARGINAL MAINSTREAMS PARTICIPATORY CULTURE NEW COMMONS Molecular vision Looking long
HOW TO USE THIS MAP As climate change, deterioration of the global food chain,
uncertain energy supplies, and environmental health issues
Marginalized populations—whether they are slum dwellers or
citizens of economically disadvantaged countries or people with
Taking advantage of lightweight infrastructures—for everything
from media to energy and fabrication—many more people will
Even as the Earth’s natural commons are increasingly at risk,
humans are creating new kinds of commons that can generate new
Human ability to engineer at the molecular level, whether through
biological, chemical, or electro-mechanical means, will grow
The 21st century will test our abilities to grasp the future impacts
of present choices, but even as we struggle to incorporate future
Foresight to Insight to Action loom, ecological indicators will become key measures that disabilities—will grow in number and influence over the next participate in the creation of the cultural fabric that defines who wealth and sustain health and well-being in the face of these risks. over the next decade, changing not only the way we manage the knowledge into our day-to-day decisions, we’re tuning up our
6
organizations—and society as a whole—need to steer a strategic ten years, remaking mainstream culture as they work around we are and how we will manage the dilemmas that face the world From the Internet to bio-commons, they will provide new world but actually transforming it to create new kinds of built bodies and minds and even our cultural frameworks for a much
course through in the next decade. apparent limits. in the coming decade. lessons in human social organization. environments—and new ways of living in them. longer viewaging in U.S. population
Three views of of our personal and collective worlds.
The 2007 Map of the Decade is the first step in a process 6 Distribution of Sustainable Citizens
of using foresight to reveal insights that can lead to more
n n o vat o r s 2 Distribution of Smart Networkers who are smart networkers? 4 Distribution of Personal Care Scores
effective action in the present. You can use it as a simple road sustainability behaviors tie s as i smart networking sel tive good
3 Distribution of Scores for Collective Behavior extended-self Getting younger
sa bili • Youth 4 Distribution of Scores for Literacy of the Commons
f-in llec Transhumanist attitudes—the desire to
map, pointing to signposts in a landscape that you can’t afford Number of people
people with di
Number of people
• Group participation • Slightly more men terest PLUS co Number of people Years
• Community health be “better than human”—are normally 65
to overlook. But you can also tap it much more deeply, using • More people survive with birth defects 150
• Collective behavior • Slightly better educated LITERACY OF THE COMMONS A NEW SOCIABILITY Median age
Life expectancy + median
125
• Personal care 200 distributed in U.S. population
group processes to discover how your own organization— • More chronic disease: from 43% of global • Online lifestyle • No correlation to income 55
Life expectancy at median age age yields a declining
Number of people Number of people Standardized median age
100 disease burden to 60% by 2020 • Mobile communication standardized “real age”
your strategies and your goals—will be shaped by the CITIZENS OF 100
• Locative activity 1,250 150
l i f e s pa n s 45
passage of the next ten years. 75
SUSTAINABILITY s l u m s a s i n c u b at o r ed
rs f • Computer connectivity New commons ee
50 Personal self-interest o r i n n o vat i o n 1,000 300 100 in De Grey’s SENS: 35
will focus sustainability
50
• Maintaining
behaviors, ng • Cell therapy
correlated with • Social-
e
ance
25 750 25
efforts on local tters as lead us the commons • Somatic gene therapy
fin a youth, may network
Take a Foresight Tour urban squ
50 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
communities ers 200
0
ic 0
DIGITAL NATIVES, • Personal represent lead development • Somatic protein therapy
This map organizes IFTF’s research findings from the last year into
0 10.0 20.0 30.0
am • Alternative instruments
25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0
expression 500
six columns—six big shifts that seem to encapsulate everything else.
Sustainability Citizen Index
sl • Von Hippel: Lead users Smart Networking Index CIVIC SPACES users—watch for • Social-identity 0 EXTREME
for Muslim and non- face needs that will become the curve to grow creation
i
on
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
100 LONGEVITY
stricti
Youth media literacy 250
nda rds Muslim populations mainstream eventually Source: Institute for the Future, American Lifestyles Survey, 2006. more mainstream X-People Index 1 Distribution of Scores for Self-Organizing Do-It-Yourselfers
ric re
l s ta to - pat i e n t d nt will create a new civic • Self-organized lifestyle calo Surprise—the
Crossing these columns, you’ll find ten key perspectives—the fue ecoservic
ient- isease manageme
wa b l e -
Source: Institute for the Future, American Lifestyles Survey, 2006.
es o culture Source: SandersonReduction of 20% takes
• and Scherbov, Nature, 2005. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/
pat
0 population is getting
big forecasts from this year’s Ten-Year Forecast. These are the rene ptimi • Online sociability
icrofinance
1.0 2.0 3.0 0 v435/n7043/abs/nature03593.html age of heart
15 years off
focal focal points of the map, the big stories that will give the decade • 20% of energy portfolio in 20
za tion m • Co-creation of health management Literacy of Commons Index 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Source: Institute for the Future, 2006. younger!
3D pro • Caloric-restriction mimetic drugs
ubiquitous envir for chronic disease
points its distinctive form. Many of these have indexes, drawn from factor DIY
states is renewable by 2020 • Muhammad Yunus: youth me
Collective Behavior Index tot yping
Number of people
analysis of survey data, that show how deeply the stories penetrate onm “End of poverty by 2030” dia
e n ta l l a b e l i n g pro Source: Institute for the Future, American Lifestyles Survey, 2006. • Inkjet printing 100
the culture today and where the cutting edge lies. duction peer-to-p
py
f e d e r a l wat e r - • Half of teens have
p h i l a n t h r o Source: Institute for the Future,e e r d e s i g n Survey, 2006. • Laser sintering
re t i c i pat o r y
American Lifestyles
pol ge produced online media pa r
lutio chinese BBS human–future
75
Waving across the map are dozens of smaller signal banners: n trading FINANCIAL ne shifting ba DESIGN-BASED
indexes i n ta n g i b l e w e a lt r at sis o • Online sharing of DIY interaction
the details that add up to the big stories in our forecasts. These are
h REFORM ive f aut • 43% of Chinese Internet users open-sour MANUFACTURING
indicators, innovations, memes—they can link directly to some part g e n e r at i o n comm hority ce lic designs for 3D objects 50 A pattern language for:
New financial instruments use BBS on a regular basis ensing e fa c t o r 3D printers + computerized
of your strategy. Track several of them across the map to see what Investors get serious ence of c erce CONSUMER xibl
will emerge to manage urg las • From expert authority e ies design will trigger • Design tools and
res Fl
about alternative capitals: • Public domain license
kind of story they tell together. Share the story with a colleague, a ecologies of risk s • Brazil: Viva Favela to distributed trust COLLECTIVES transformation of factories— 25 media formats
team, your whole organization. • Creative Commons attribution license • From rapid prototyping
signal • Intellectual captial • Class distinctions grow—and • India: FOOD In China, online groups and maybe desktops • Strategic needs of users
• General public license a to rapid fabrication
banners • Social capital even gain favor—as people in will redefine harm
a lt h l i t e r a c y
• Argentina: iPeople
al p 0 • Goals and insights of
• Natural capital
l-he
growing economies express their
• Mexico: Bioplaneta tuangou purchasing power • Copyleft license virtu 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 forecasters
Build your own foresight ecologica newfound wealth
Chinese shopping collectives: • Open-source biotech DIY Index
Two knowledge-based drivers: bio-teaming
personal carbo dagogy
No map is ever complete. So add to it. The easiest way is to add signals. In n footprints • Employer-sponsored groups ry pe
• Holistic models of health at o mmons • Beyond project management: cking exabytes of da
a group or individually, use the columns and forecasts to organize your own global population distribution • Gated-community collectives i cip OPEN ECONOMY
-co bio-ha ta
al carbon cred • DNA links to environmental BRIC: rt bio-processes as guidelines, models
son p e r s o n a l i z e d , pa
intelligence about the future. Where do your most important internal forecasts mobile learn i o • Biobricks Foundation:
r i ts impacts on health 8 zones of instability • Ad hoc rural collectives ing ne EDUCATION b Source: IFTF DIY molecular Survey, 2006.
• American Lifestyles biology SCIENCE
fit in this bigger picture? What signals do they amplify? pe tworks All standard DNA parts that
n at u r e a s c o d e • One exabyte = half of all the
• Retail service groups • New learning agents
Open-source and information generated in 1999 REVOLUTION
• Environment es
b iliti proliferate
• Kenya: EPROM’s mobile cooperative strategies will encode biological functions Biomimetics at three levels:
• Number of exabytes of data Uncertainty will
Capture insights • Infrastructure
mo phone programming transform public education • Julian Vincent’s database • Materials in one year of phone calls drive a new era
w
al burden of disease • Employment
ne
• India: MSSRF’s volunteer radio of organic designs of post-normal
glob
Insight often emerges from juxtaposition. Circle three of the most important Driving innovation and • Structures worldwide: 17,000
• Health u re science
signals (or forecasts) on the map. What makes them important—especially regional growth: s n architect • Processes
when you put them together? The answer to this question is an insight. Leading causes: • The Generations ld gree
• Physical al wor ogical reso
Capture as many of them as you can. ECOSCIENCE + • Malnutrition • Property at e d v i r t u biol u rce management erse
• Residential reciprocal ac cre univ
ECONOMICS • Poor water and sanitation • Morality
cou us er- • Eastgate Centre: ventilation