Tendencias en el sector artesanal 2010


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Presentación de la charla que, con motivo de la Inauguración del Centro de Diseno e Innovación Artesanal del Instituto de la Artesania Jalisciense se presentó en el Museo Nacional de la Cerámica de Tlaquepaque, Diciembre 2010.

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Tendencias en el sector artesanal 2010

  1. 1. Tendencias de diseño y aplicación al sector artesanalAlberto Rosa SierraCuerpo Académico 381_Innovación Tecnológica para el DiseñoCentro Universitario de Arte, Arquitectura y DiseñoUniversidad de Guadalajara
  2. 2. ¿Que es una tendencia?La moda (fashion-bussiness)ha fijado en la gente unaconcepción (errónea) deltérmino
  3. 3. TendenciasEl concepto de tendencia no es privativo de losmercados financieros. En un sentido general, es unpatrón de comportamiento de los elementos de unentorno particular durante un periodo de tiempo.En términos del análisis técnico, la tendencia essimplemente la dirección o rumbo del mercado...!
  4. 4. ¿De donde surgen las tendencias?
  5. 5. En el diseño de productos y servicios, las tendencias Tecnología dependen de tres factores que se mueven cada uno en su propia dirección.No es ninguno más importante Mercados Sociedad que los otros y están íntimamente inter-conectados.
  6. 6. Que pasa en la sociedad?Cambios demográficos a nivel mundial (migraciones)Población cada vez mas “anciana”Nuevas estructuras familiares, familias de monoparentales, mini-familias, hogares pequeños...Cambios en los valores de consumo, cambio constante de productos, renovación de menaje de casa...Cambio en el paradigma del trabajo, nuevas formas de empleo, inestabilidad laboral, incertidumbre...
  7. 7. Que pasa con los mercados?Mayor diferenciación de productos, personalización, individualizaciónFabricación selectiva o “bajo pedido”Importancia de la usabilidad y seguridadConciencia en los límites ambientales, ecología, eco-diseño
  8. 8. Que pasa con la tecnología?Microchips y nanotecnologíaNuevos materiales: Materiales inteligentes,fabricación de materiales “bajo pedido”,materiales de recicladoNuevos procesos productivos: Mas rápidos,mas baratos, mas “limpios”Logística “inteligente”, entrega a todo elmundoEl mundo supercomunicado, importanciade las redes sociales
  9. 9. TIME ZONES TRENDS & TECHNOLOGY TIMELINE 2010+ A roadmap for the exploration of current & future trends Personal responsibility People renting dreams Community theatre in the round takes Compulsory LEGEND off (again) paternity tests First child born in space Inheritance ZONE 1: 2010-2015 (+ some predictions to stir things up. More at nowandnext.com) Printable TV screens Invisibility cloaks Prison ships Children become luxury objects Turkey, Iran and Mexico Convergence of healthcare Contents of British Library available on a postage stamp-sized chip Letter writing First human clone e-voting in supermarkets Disintegration of EU become key powers and financial planning ZONE 2: 2015-2020 Digital cash Single global Digital cash widely embedded in clothing Hunger for shared experiences Folk-art revival Increased immigration to solve skills crisis Collapse of free trade Government PR budgets exceed military spending Pulse bombs widely e-currency Animals suing humans Baby licences Growth of ‘Tech-No’ movement Desire for control Culture of immediacy Cheques Resurgence of hobbies & craft 1/3 of all military vehicles Function based tariffs embedded in Widespread now unmanned outbreaks for electricity human body Growth of G2 Global population hits 9 billion Most people Online funerals Search for meaning Digital celebrities of panic Virtual protests Revival of far-right politics People able to record every ZONE 3: 2020-2025 Rising rage Expecting less have multiple (Mondays to Fridays only) Face recognition doors Widespread use of nano-materials event from birth to death Brain drain from hedge funds to scientific R&D (energy #1 priority) presences Pastism Nostalgia Bio-mimicry Airborne networks Wealth asylum seekers Shape shifting materials Molecular machines Fully sensory internet Increasing influence of Cosmetic brain Calorie taxes Food passports 10-mile diets oil states on US politics World’s first thorium reactor surgery Convenience Well-being Provenance Traceability Regionality Green politics ZONE 4: 2025-2035 opens in India Energy harvesting buildings Biotechnology Epidemic of new Indulgence Authenticity Growth of virtual communities Rise of N11 countries Middle Class unrest Open source intelligence gathering Virtual water Genetic prophesy at birth mental disorders Rising levels of autocracy linked to uncensored Whole life financial planning linked Globalisation unravelling Lunar dimming streetlights Intelligent vending machines use of digital devices Growth of Business sustainability to whole family model Government Growth of state control Carbon trading ZONE 5: 2035-2050 micro-insurance largest determinant of Robotics Local energy transmission networks e-services First Internet court stock price Power shift Emergence of Gross National Men behaving like women Artificial eyes Meltdown of global Emergence of Growth of bartering Eastwards Happiness metrics Shopping 2.0 financial system Online communities Genetically Gross National Ageing Customer service avatars Womb based therapy start physical enhanced pets Happiness Speech recognition communities RFID Small indulgences Third spaces become common place Redefinition of health to metricsNotes on time travel 75-year mortgages Pre-pay currency cards Last CD is Micro-finance Widespread cuts in Monolines EDLP Authenticity Carbon chaos Negawatts Clean coal Rare earths include happiness/well-being Shift to local FigurativeThis map is a broad representation of some of revolution in the published Paper statements & bills public services trade e-ink comes Face recognition Free-tailing Re-regulationthe trends and technologies currently visible. Retirement arts as neoclassicism of age Investment in renewable energy Half the world now living under double Increase in pigouvian taxes Brain gyms Growth of outsourcing Conspicuous non-consumption to AfricaImprovement works are carried out at weekends and returns Bionic Olympics A graphic novel Acute labour women behaving like men Mercantilism Increasing longevity digit inflationtravellers should check to see whether lines are still wins the Booker shortages in Prize aged-care sector Infrastructure under-investment Networked risk Broader definitions of healthoperable before commencing any journeys. Helpful Move to global pricing Synthetic biology Nuclear power renaissance Home-based health Peak landfill of consumer goods Just-in-time Seasonality Cities paintedsuggestions concerning new routes and excursions (driven by shopbots) shopping Too much choice Blurring of sectors Sensory experiences Life story labelling Urbanisation Medical tourism Obesity white to increase reflectivity Consumer e-health Pensions funding crisisare always welcome. Globalisation Declining fertility AnxietyIf you wish to travel outside of Zone 1 you are advised Disappearance Robocops in Local shopping Price polarisation (High / Low ) Urban/rural divide Loneliness Growth of privateto bring comfy shoes and a camera. Travellers are also of checkouts shopping malls Virtual libraries Device convergence Localism Micro-power generation currencies Plastic bridges Increasing interest ratesadvised to bring their own supplies of food and water Blurring of scientific disciplines Stored value cards Telemedicine Home as refuge iPills Metabolomics Peak Uraniumalthough weapons are unnecessary if you keep to well Pets outnumber people globally Malicious intent detectors Online micro-payments Domestic energy dashboards Modular spaces Identity theft Rising economc Driverless lorriestrodden paths. Also note that travel into Zone 5 is not Robot population Basic forms of AI Growth of security protectionism First moon hotelavailable for people aged over 75 years of age. surpasses human Digital mirrors algorithms Micro-finance Industries consolidating globally Debt Decline in real wages population High Street Internet addiction clinic Mind control toys Personalisation Use of fake information Depression Islamic finance Payments to as a weapon P2P lending Debt Stress Personal nooks enter most cities Pilotless airlinersA3 and A2 Prints of this map Average lifespan Unexpected increase Death of distance Health & safety hysteria Information pandemics Mobile payments Sense of entitlement Services outsourcing by private vehicle Peak copperFull colour prints of this map are available 100 years in fertility rates Home/work convergence Basic forms of AI Web 2.0 Volatility Healthcare rationing Simplicity Unsupervised adults Victim culture Shift to knowledge intensive industries Brain holidays Societal feminisation Large screensto anyone that asks nicely. A small charge is ‘Spinning disk’ Home swap holidays everywhere Fullylevied to cover print and postage costs only. Empathy memory devices Machines that can judge emotional state of user Cloud storage Home/street immersive Full concentration T.I.M Robotic surgery Data level domestic waste gaming Increasing regulationContact< richard@nowandnext.com >stating Devices re-programming themselves & compliance security Individualism Droughts Believers versus heretics processing 30% of all books All ads nowwhether you’d like A3 or A2 size and saying 25% of company HQs now virtual Widespread use of brain Single person households Tightening security in light of experience Contactless payments Flooding User filtering User generated content now digital personalised scans in job interviews Energy storagewhich country the map is to be delivered to. Online video Micro-blogging Digitalisation Binge drinking Bio-simulationsDelivery is available to anywhere in the world. Virtual currencies Growth of digital narcissism Shorter formats Real-time car insurance All televised sportAtternatively, just print this out yourself Physical newspapers Near extinction of quality journalism Digital diets Growth in passenger numbers Constant digital Prediction markets Telepresence Wilder weather Emergence of green nationalism now short format( A3 minimum recommended ) become luxury items spawns philanthropic funding Domestic tourism distraction Online medical records Green IT e-books Seabed mining Childcare robots Voluntourism Fuel-cell cars Face recognition rear view mirrors (linked to ignition) HypersonicSourced Face recognition doors Quiet paint 4 billion mobile phone subscribers Sustainability Gesture-based computing airlinersMaterial for this map has been soured from a Medical tourism Intelligent packaging Environmental 3-D teleconferences Collapse ofnumber of publications including Future Files Wireless re-charge Low-cost competition Fair trade Shifting centres of economic activity change Hybrid fuels Bio-fuel backlash Chinese banking Cyber-pet vets Video wallpaper Aged care robots Wind power Return of food inflation and food riots systemand What’s Next Holographic storage Outsourcing backlash Fractional ownership Space tourism Dining Rooms Modesty Green cities Consumer e-health Slow food Cautious optimism Urban car sharing Laboratory grown meat in supermarkets Robotic insects for crop pollination Companies re-think Mega trend Computers with Verbal search Increasing inflation 2-speed economies Increasing complexity Electricity shortages OHS&E CHIME liquidity after moving parts Green buildings Comfort foods Fragrance cartridges Ocean dead zones Affective computing Sustainable tourism Global hospital brands Lunar dimming streetlights in mobiles workplace stress claims Trend Ubiquitous computing Water labelling Nano-solar End of low-cost inputs All vehicles fitted with GPS Oil at $200 Eco-cynics Gen X start to outlive their offspring Fuel-cell phones Most people have 2+ careers Holidays at home packages 80% of global energy requirements still met by oil/coal/gas Facebook vacations (meet your online friends in person) a barrel Prediction Augmented reality Phone spam Human organ farms Skills shortages bite contact lenses Wearable computers Resources increasingly acquired on a no questions asked basis Solar energy generating windows DNA Global sensor network Urban (vertical) farming Male birth control pill Communication free resorts Augmented reality windscreens Sleep hotels Open source explodes with global standard for royalty payments Dangerous currents computing Focus on hardware reduces as Digital nomads Creative industries Rise of the vegetarians Industrial repatriation Generational conflict in the workplace Increasing automation www.futuretrendsbook.com services more distributed and interoperable Creation of new arable lands as planet Plastic bones Variable road-pricing dependent on time of day/traffic volume Water labelling become dominant contributors to Poor visibility Declining water quality warms up Artificial livers of all products Second asset Quantum computing bubble global GDP Hydrogen fuel stations Oceanic thermal converters No more anonymous email addresses Peak water Genetic diets www.nowandnext.com (one email address per person) Global migration drift to warming parts of Privacy All babies implanted with GPS & ID chips 80% of global population now obese Vehicles bought for technology upgrades rather than model changes High-speed link the northern hemisphere Fusion reactors Food allergies eliminated Average car now 50% of weight of 2010 model equivalentAcknowledgements Individual energy/carbon monitoring leads to allowances and/or tiered costing based on system akin to personal Micro-scale health-bots Cities laced with small vehicle lanes separate from road system Humility Partial ruin Space solar power Self-repairing roads Scarcity of hydrocarbon service First moon mineThis map was conceived and created by Richard Meditation/holistic services bundled with medical procedures Self-driving cars / fuel stationsWatson at Nowandnext.com with some help from Spray on surgical gloves Intimacy Creation of Department of alcohol, firearms, soft drinks and confectionary RussiaBenjamin Frazer at Snap. Also thanks to Oliver (mandatory health warnings on all alcohol, junk food and candy) (demographically) Optimism about the future DNA repair Bio-diversity Stringent laws requiring high levels of recyclability in all productsFreeman, Mike Jackson and Scott Martin. Global risks* Commodity price spikes Electricity shortages Green energy bubble US/China conflict Global pandemic Middle class revolution Major nano-tech accident Raw materials shortages Rapid increase in cyber crime Genetic terrorism Israel/Iran conflict Conflict with North Korea Collapse of China Space weather disruption to commsThis map is published under a creative Commons 2.5 * Low probability/high impact events thatShare-A-Like licence. This basically means that you can could derail any of the above trends and Mass migration of population Critical infrastructure attack Collapse of US dollar Bisphenol A link to cancer Political disintegration of Saudi Arabia Mobile phone link to cancer Aliens visit earth predictionsdo whatever you like with this map just so long as you Nuclear terrorism Rogue stakeholder Global supply chain disruption Geographical expansion of Russia Systemic failure of financial system Credit Default Swaps Return of the Messiahsay where it came from. Internet brownouts WMD Proliferation Terrorist attack on urban water supply Major earthquake in mega city Fundamentalist takeover in Pakistan Rogue asteroid People taking trend maps too seriously
  10. 10. ¿Y cómo trasladamostodo esto al mundo del Diseño? ...y la artesanía??
  11. 11. 10 aplicaciones detendencias de diseño2009+
  12. 12. “Simplexity”(Teoría emergente que propone la unión de complejo y simple)Facilidad en el uso de la tecnología, interfase “humana”
  13. 13. Personalización 14 USDPosibilidad de “hacer mío” el producto:Adaptación a gusto, personalidad, talla, etc. 65 USD
  14. 14. Diseño “rosa”El poder del “sexo débil” 8 USD
  15. 15. Imperfección en lamasificaciónPosibilidad de hacer los productos con “defectos humanos” 62 USD
  16. 16. GlobalizaciónPosibilidad de crear productos globales...yque nos lleguen productos de fuera India, China, Filipinas, Tailandia, Taiwan, Corea y Colombia India: Moradabad, Jaipur, Saharanpur, Narsapur...+ 1’000,000 empleos Mercados: 1. USA (154 mUSD) 2. EU (129 mUSD) 3. Latinoamérica (???)
  17. 17. OrnamentaciónTransición del minimalismo al barroco Inspiraciones étnicas Caricaturas, infantiles Antigüedades, “vintage”20 USD 35 USD 14 USD
  18. 18. Artesanía (hecho a mano)Revalorización del trabajo artesanal de diseño, “hand-made” 13 USD 120 USD 75 USD
  19. 19. Democratización del diseñoAmplia gama, desde la VIP hasta low-cost
  20. 20. Diseño con causaReducción de energía, residuos, etc. 27 USD
  21. 21. Materiales “desnudos”
  22. 22. Qué hacer?Cómo aplicar esto?
  23. 23. Leer (de todo), especialmente el periódicoConsultar los reportes de los que se dedican a esto (coolhunters)Analizar, observar los nuevos productos, la competenciaRacionalizar, conectar los sucesos aparentemente inconexos, aunque NO sean de mi área de actuaciónEstar al día en tecnología, procesos, materialesExperimentar, probar nuevos procesos, materiales, acabados, etc
  24. 24. Invitación El Polo i+d del CUAAD, cuenta con un observatorio de tendencias, quien desee, acérquese a nosotros para apoyarle en su búsqueda de aplicaciones de tendencias a productos específicos.
  25. 25. Centro Universitariode Arte,Arquitectura yDiseñoUniversidad deGuadalajara
  26. 26. Gracias por su atención...