Spohrer aaas reality2 20160214 v3
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Spohrer aaas reality2 20160214 v3
- 1. Reality 2.0: Much Smarter Service Systems Coming Soon… Jim Spohrer (IBM) Marriott Center, Washington, DC USA, Sunday February 14th, 2016 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-aaas-reality2-20160214-v3 2/14/2016 1
- 2. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 2/14/2016 2 2035 2055
- 3. 2/14/2016 3 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
- 4. 2/14/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 4
- 5. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching? 2/14/2016 5 What might it look like?
- 6. 2/14/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 6 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
- 7. Courses 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week 2035 – “How to use your cognitive assistant to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of cognitive assistants.” – Most people have 100 cognitive assistants working for them. 2/14/2016 7
- 8. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers will with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 2/14/2016 8 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
- 9. Learning to program: My first program 2/14/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
- 10. 2/14/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
- 11. 2/14/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11
- 12. In Summary 2/14/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
- 13. Reality 2.0 Service Platform 2/14/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 13 Service Platform CM1 P2 CM1 P1 100x 100x 100x
- 14. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
- 15. 2/14/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 15
Editor's Notes
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Panel Discussion: Reality 2.0: Much smarter service systems coming soon. AAAS Washington DC, USA. Sunday February 14, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-aaas-reality2-20160214-v3
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
- Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era: (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy; - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope") - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power) (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc. (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook.... http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
- Source: http://tsummit.org
- In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
- Bluemix free access – http://www.ibm.com/university – see academic intiatives
- Interested faculty, students, really anyone with a credit card can get 750 GB-Hours a month free http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/developercloud/services-catalog.html