How/when does your company measure forecast accuracy and discuss tips to improve. Review mix management and product variance. Presented by Linda Szymanski (Customer Experience Consultant, SPI) at the 2016 SPI Conference.

1. Forecasting
Essentials
LINDA SZYMANSKI

2. Forecasting
• Understand Forecast Accuracy
• Forecast Versioning
• Mix Management
• Product Variance
• Managing Product Level Forecasting

3. Forecast Accuracy
• Fillrate – Initial / Final
• Variance / MAPE
• Backorder
Metrics to Measure
• Year or Season
• Offer
• Points in Time – Plan / X Weeks Out / Mail Date
When / Frequency
• Category, Key Items, Responsibility/Ownership
• Key Items, Front / Back Covers
• Key Inventory Investments / Strategy Changes
What

4. Reports - Snapshots
Dynamic Reports
• Offer Product
• Offer Product
SKU
• Select Version

5. Reports
Version Variance
Reports

6. Reports
Fillrate

7. Product Variance
• The variance between the forecast and the projection is beyond what
is set in the Variance Percentage
Why on the list?
• Quick Read – Flyers / Dyers
• Prioritize
Benefits
• Daily
• while offers are within the percentage done range set
Frequency to Review

8. Product Variance
• Listing of
Products
which met job
criteria
• Forecast
demand
versus
Projected
demand

9. Product Variance - Submit Job
• Run Daily Script
• Manual Submit Job
Click
Submit
Job
1) How soon do you want
to review exceptions?
2) How late into the offer
do you want to review
exceptions?
3) What is not acceptable
as an incorrect
forecast?

10. Product Variance – Details
• Right click or double-click to access Product Level
Forecasting
• Right click to assign projections as forecasts
(may multi-select)

11. Direct Links to PLF
• Product Variance
• Single and Multi-Offer Forecast
• MAPS Planning Grid
• Materials Planning
• DRS Reports
• Dashboard Quick Launch
• Previous and Next Buttons
Product Level Forecasting (PLF)

12. View every offer in which a product is assorted
Customize the screen view/Filter offers shown
Like Products
View a graph of various metrics
Search capability of the screen
Grid and Toolbar Components
Product Level Forecasting (PLF)

13. Product Level Forecasting (PLF)
Active Offers
Grid
History Grid
Sort
Columns
Review Active Offer Forecasts to Historical Sales

14. PLF - Screen Components
• Offer Type
• Seasonal
• Catalog
• Internet
• Offer Versions
• Summary Rows

15. PLF - Screen Components
• Customize Screen
• Hide/Show
• Add/Remove Columns
• Set Column Display
Order
• Save the Screen View

16. PLF - Screen Components
• Offer criteria
• Examples - Filter by Year /
Channel / Seasonal Offers
• Save Criteria
• Set as Default Filter

17. PLF - Like Products

18. PLF - Like Products

19. PLF - Like Products

20. Offers
listed
Select
one of
19
Metrics
to
display
PLF - Graphing

21. PLF - Search Options
• Product
• Offer
• SKU

22. PLF - Search Results
Enter Search criteria
Results list returned
Double-click on Product
Work Through the List
Print the Search results List

23. PLF - Previous and Next Buttons
Use the Next Button
to review products
from a linked list.
Allows you to
review products in
sequence.

24. PLF - Grid Components
Curve Analysis
Product Image
Offer Comments
Offer-Product Comments
Change History
Mix Percentage
Select/Deselect All

25. PLF - Mix Percentages

26. Product Wizard
Materials Planning
Demand by Week
History/Forecast Graph
Real Time Publish
PLF – Toolbar Components

27. Demand By Week

28. View
Forecast
and
Inventory
Levels
History/Forecast Graph

29. View
Sales
Trends
History/Forecast Graph

30. Real Time Publish

31. Questions

32. Contact Me
•Linda Szymanski
Email: linda.szymanski@spi.com
Phone: 612.600.4511