IBF conference, 20-22 Amsterdam Nov/2013

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IBF conference, 20-22 Amsterdam Nov/2013

  1. 1. ly Chain Supp asting Forec anning & Pl fe r e n ce Con ing Tutorial casting & Plann cal Fore w / 1 - D a y S ta t i s t i Europe sterdam am t Hotel A m s t e r d a m A ir p o r , N e t h e r la n d s R a d is s o n B lu Amsterdam 2 0 - 2 2 November 2013 ird ly Bng Ear ici Pr 59 EUR/ € 10 SD ONLY ,299 U ister $1 you reg n e whe befor 13! r 20 tobe 25 oc Tel: +1.516.504.7576 | Fax: +1.516.498.2029 | Email: info@ibf.org | Web: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm
  2. 2. For IBF Members Only with your conference registration* *Fee for Tutorial Only Supply Chain Forecasting & Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm wednesDAY | 20 NOVEMBER 2013 | 09:00 – 16:00 1-DAY Statistical Forecasting & Planning Tutorial Forecasting is a key element of any supply chain or S&OP process. ”Getting the forecast right” at least gives you the opportunity to deliver real supply chain improvement. IBF’s Full-Day Tutorial will help you understand your forecasting process and software from the ground up. It will lead you through an understanding of common techniques found in your forecasting software and help you take advantage of its untapped potential. If you don’t have forecasting software, this tutorial will teach you what models and methods it should have and how to use them with MS-Excel. You have the option to bring your laptop to the event. Furthermore, we will discuss how to “cleanse” data and choose the right data for use with your models and systems. Greater forecasting performance can be achieved through better data management, which you will learn at the IBF Tutorial. Section 1 Section 4 INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS FORECASTING MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE • Types of forecasting methods a] Extrapolative (time series) methods b] Explanatory (cause-and-effect) methods c ] Judgmental methods • Data considerations (e.g., missing data, outliers, etc.) The measurement of forecast accuracy is essential in any forecasting process. • Goodness of fit vs. forecast accuracy • Within-sample vs. out-of sample tests • Rolling out of sample evaluations • hree important statistical measures of forecast accuracy: T MPE, MAPE, and WMAPE • Designing an out-of sample test Section 2 INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES: SIMPLE AVERAGES, MOVING AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Section 5 Among all models, time series models are the ones that are used most in business • Level Change • Percentage Change • eighted Average Percentage W Change • Moving Averages • Sales Ratio • xponential smoothing models E • lassical Decomposition C Model • utomatic model A selection Section 3 REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING AND QUANTIFYING RELATIONSHIPS WITH PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EVENTS “Putting it all Together” • Forecasting Best Practices Summary • Forecasting Processes • Data Collection Analysis • Methods Models • oftware Systems People S • The 3-C’s”…..Collaboration, Communication “ Commitment • The “Seven Pearls of Forecasting” Regression is the basic tool for measuring the relationship between variables. It is often used where some understanding of the underlying reasons for the forecasted values is needed. • Classical regression model • Simple regression • Multiple regression • Interpreting results • Regression coefficients • The R-squared statistic • t” ratios and statistical significance “ • Multicollinearity • Serial correlation • Dummy variables • Seasonality • Dynamic (lagged) term Sven F. Crone Deputy Director Lancaster Centre for Forecasting Ms-Excel will be Used for Demonstration Exercises. Bring Along Your Laptop (Optional) appropriate business solutions to different roles in this process. Join this session to learn how Nestle Global overcame obstacles and collaborated with internal and external stakeholders to improve planning and forecasting performance. Keynote presentation The Role of SOP in Driving New Product Growth You will learn: • The pivotal role of Demand Planning in FMCG companies • The distinction between forecasting and planning • How Nestlé provides appropriate business solutions to planners Victor Shevtsov VP Supply Chain and Operations Strategy PepsiCo Marcel Baumgartner Forecasting and Planning: No Compromises in the Business Solutions 1 Demand Planning is a key process within FMCG companies working in a make-to-stock environment. Only through reliable planning can we deliver high customer service AND optimized inventory levels. In this session, learn how Nestlé provides, through a careful distinction between forecasting and planning, the most 2 EMEA Network Planning Manager Nestlé Leveraging the Power of Integrated SOP Capabilities to Support Business Integration and Growth Strategy 2 The input will tell the story of the SOP journey we followed in
  3. 3. Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm order to enable and facilitate Syngenta integration and growth strategy. You will learn: • How to put SOP at the heart of a company strategy • How to manage different levels of maturity within one business • A few experiences highlighting the need for strong leadership to enable strong SOP • Key success factors and barriers for sustainable SOP process implementations • How to leverage reports and metrics to ensure continuous process improvement Thilo Lindner Senior Expert Planning Processes – Sales and Operations Planning GSB/BD BASF SE Fred Bourseul EAME Supply Planning Manager CPFR: How to Optimize the Use of an Advanced Planning System Syngenta Integrated Commercial Forecasting Planning 3 Many companies utilize several teams to prepare forecasts, plan resources and deliver customer commitments. These teams prepare the finance forecasts, marketing forecasts, demand forecasts, and supply forecast purchases. In the global market, new operating models have emerged with regional teams working with local teams. Teams need to meet the challenges of aligning the numbers, even at the volume level, and include revenue, gross profit, operating profit and cash flow predictions. Join this session to learn the important role of finance in SOP, about cash flow forecasting, consensus forecasting, and much more. Attend this session to: • How regional demand planning processes work to achieve a consensus forecast • How finance can take the volume and revenue forecast and estimate the profit outlook • How the business can use these numbers to arrive at an 18 month cash flow forecast Richard Loretto Former Executive Director, Commercial Operations 5 The implementation of an advanced demand planning tool is a first step in taking your Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) process to the next level. The next step is to optimize your processes. An important module of advanced planning tools is statistical forecasting, which is currently not used to its ultimate potential in most organizations. How can we set up our organizations in a way that allows us to reach this potential?Enabling customer collaboration via an advanced planning tool can help improve the efficiency of our supply chains. Increasing the amount of information sharing on sales, stocks, promotional plans, and forecasts will reduce the bullwhip effect.Join us in this session to learn how to CPFR work for you to improve customer service, minimize inventory, and improve your organizational performance. You will learn: • How to Implement an advanced planning system in a multinational organization • How to optimize statistical forecasting after implementation of an advanced planning system • How to make CPFR more successful and reduce the bull-whip effect by increasing customer collaboration via advanced planning systems Willian van Slooten Avon Demand Forecasting Lisanne van Diemen 4 Demand Forecasting The Day After – How to Ensure a Sustainable SOP Process Implementation DSM For two decades, BASF has been running SOP projects on a regional and global level. In most cases, the SOP processes, once implemented, deteriorated over time, were not sustainable or did not deliver the promised results. BASF has recently developed a new business process management concept that can truly make a difference and ensure sustainable SOP implementations. Please join BASF, the world’s leading chemical company, on this journey and learn how this new concept can lead to long lasting improvements in profits and working capital performance. New Product Forecasting Planning in the World of Fashion Sports You will learn: • How to implement a process management organization to continuously improve SOP process maturity 3 6 Asics is the leading brand for athletic footwear and apparel. Two times a year Asics renews its entire collection and product portfolio in an effort to improve company performance. We’ve learned that statistical forecasting based on time series analytics is not useful, simply because there is little or no history for new products. Asics designed a project with a fashion-forecasting specialist, to tackle this challenge. Join this session to learn how Asics met the challenge of continually and successful forecasting for new products.
  4. 4. Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm You will learn: • How Asics improves forecast accuracy for new products with no history • How to organize the forecast process for short life cycle products • The benefits Asics expects from the new forecast process Mike van Baaren Program Manager Supply Chain Fang Liao EMEA Demand Planning Manager Asics Europe BV How to Minimize Political Biases to Improve Forecasting and Increase the Effectiveness of SOP/IBP 7 You will learn: • How to define a business oriented ABC classification in a 4 steps approach • The methodology used to build XYZ segmentation • The benefits ABC-XYZ classification brings, and an example Pilot test Anne-Claire Aillet, CPF EU Demand Planning Manager SC Johnson Sarl Often times, efficiently reaching the agreed upon forecast without many arguments between stakeholders is a challenge. Each area of the organization has its own needs, which leads to bias and conflict. The innovative approach we will present in this conference session benefits from applying a simple and effective mathematical methodology that tackles common biases regularly found in the forecasting process. This new methodology also creates better conditions for enabling an improved effectiveness in the SOP/IBP process. In this session, you’ll hear our journey and lessons learned in this innovation pilot we implemented at one of Danone’s Country Business Unit that yielded excellent results. You will learn: • A way to effectively conduct and reach consensus at the Demand Review meeting • How an efficient Demand Review meeting can leverage the effectiveness of SOP/IBP • How to successfully approach a change in the Demand Planning process Sebastian Guerrero Sr. Demand Supply Planning Danone 8 How to Support Business Priorities with ABC-XYZ Segmentation at SC Johnson Europe to be faster and more flexible. Demand Planners can be overwhelmed by the volume of items and struggle to maintain focus on business priorities. To address this, SC Johnson began to work on ABC-XYZ segmentation to create specific forecasting profiles in order to help Demand Planners make the right choice at the right moment according to business priorities. Join us in this session to learn how this method is successfully used for demand behaviour of the products specific to SC Johnson Europe. In this forever-changing economy, Demand Planners must revise their approach to remain ahead of the game and leverage improvement opportunities. Market conditions require businesses Managing Demand Planning Processes with ABC-XYZ-Analysis – ACase Study at Beiersdorf Demand planners in the consumer goods (CPG/FMCG) industries face the challenge of forecasting a large number of heterogeneous products, with varying sales volumes, time series patterns, levels of being promoted,and different forecasting complexity. One the one hand, 1000s of SKUs require automatic forecasting of baseline sales, on the other hand the impact of sales and marketing promotions require well thought out adjustments in the SOP process. How do we manage and overcome this dilemma?In this session, you will be introduced to the concept of ABC-XYZanalysis to manage and prioritise the SOP-process for efficient and effective planning. ABC-XYZ combines the popular ABCclassification (on the relative importance of a product within the assortment) with a second XYZ- classification on the forecasting complexity. You will learn from a case study based on Beiersdorf, an international skin and beauty care FMCG manufacturer using SAP APO-DP. You will learn: • How ABC-XYZ-analysis helped to improve forecasting accuracy and inventory levels at Beiersdorf • How to analyse your own assortment using ABC-XYZ in a step-by-step guide • How to use ABC-XYZ to benchmark and track forecasting accuracy Kalle Rasmussens Demand Planning Project Manager Beiersdorf Sven Crone “ Top notch functional knowledge experts speaking in practical terms with fundamental application Frank Marottolo, COVIDIEN 4 ” 9 Director Lancaster Centre for Forecasting
  5. 5. Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm Driving Breakthrough SOP at Nissan Europe 10 Nissan is currently mid-way through an aggressive mid-term growth expansion plan. Nissan in Europe decided that to support the required growth and meet its committed targets it needed to strengthen its SOP process including investment in an SOP tool. This project includes the creation of a high granularity, a true unconstrained demand forecasting process, replacing the current low granularity, total industry volume, demand forecasting that is highly dictated by short-term company actions and incentives. A major focus of this session will be on Nissan’s progress towards improved Demand Forecasting Planning, a key to SOP success. You will learn: • Why the Nissan Group of Europe needed to reengineer its SOP process • The challenges faced in Automotive Demand Forecasting • How Nissan plans to mitigate these challenges Alexandre Balaton Distribution Strategy Development Officer Henry Zamora Production Planning, NISA Supply Chain Management Nissan Europe Demand Forecasting in Fashion Jewelry as an Integral Part of the Swarovski SOP Cycle 11 12 Gearing Your SOP Process to Support a Growth Strategy – Integrating the ‘New Stuff’ In this workshop we will explore the challenges of integrating ‘New Stuff’ into the ‘SOP/IBP’ process, share ways of creating a ‘growth mindset’ and develop the opportunities for your company to integrate growth into your ‘joined-up decision-making’ processes and behaviours. Through interactive working sessions, you will have the opportunity to assess the alignment between your companies ‘SOP/IBP’ process and growth objectives, and take back actions to improve ‘joined-up decision-making’ as an enabler for growth. You Will Learn: • Innovation Portfolio Management – How to Integrate the New Stuff necessary to accommodate growth • Balancing Control and Creativity - How to join-up the decisionmaking process, learn how to make seemingly opposing forces must come together • How to keep sight of the end-in-mind (profitable, sustainable growth) and the decisions required to integrate the portfolio of ‘new stuff’ into the business and deliver the intended business results Chris Turner Co-Founder StrataBridge The Art and Science of Forecasting: When to Use Judgment? 13 Many companies now use software that enables users to generate hundreds or thousands of time-series forecasts quickly. For some products, the statistical forecast may be the best; but for others, human judgment will always be better. And in many cases, combining the two can provide the best of both worlds. In this session, participants will learn when judgment can be expected to help or hurt the forecast and what parts will respond best to a statistical forecast. Albert Tösch Head of Business Intelligence Swarovski AG Frédéric Arenas Sr. Industry Consultant, Manufacturing Global Supply Chain Practice SAS 5 Attend this session to: • Learn Part Segmentation and use a “Forecastability Matrix” to guide statistical versus judgement inputs • Understand which parts may be due for an updated production strategy because of limitations on their forecastability • Track forecast accuracy and FVA (Forecast Value Add) analysis • Learn the shortcomings of judgement inputs and how to mitigate them Jonathon Karelse President Syncro Distribution, Inc.
  6. 6. Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm Boiling the Ocean - From Decentralized to Centralized Planning Forecasting 14 After conducting a SCOR audit of Al Nahdi Medical Co. supply chain, it became clear to management that a transformation of their supply chain was imperative. Pharmacies were ordering excess product to avoid running out of stock, creating artificial shortages in the supply network and building excess inventory. This presentation outlines the implementation of a Sales Operation Plan focused on changing the supply chain network to enhance the order fulfillment process. Join us to see how the transformation affected not only the supply chain, but created a consensus culture that nurtured a more profitable strategy moving forward. Plus, learn the common obstacles faced in the Middle East and how they were overcome. You Will Learn: • How to conduct a SCOR audit of supply chain planning • How to integrate data-mining into SOP • How to achieve sustainable growth through dynamic SOP Ahmed Abdul-hamed, ACPF Demand Inventory Manager Al Nahdi Medical Company Finding a Progressive and Self-Financing Approach to SOP 15 SOP seems to be the magic process that balances supply and demand yet some companies have been“improving” their SOP for years and are still struggling with long implementation cycles, or have paid a lot of money for failed software implementations? However, at Buckman, they implemented a strategyutilizing superior customer intimacy. Buckman Europe and later Buckman Global implemented SOP starting from the customer viewpoint. Instead of starting with a theoretical study drawing the ‘to be’ process, performing a gap analysis and then going for a big bang process/organization/tools implementation, Buckman found a progressive and self-financing approach to SOP that has brought them to higher level of SOP maturity. Join us in this session to learn how they did it and how it can be helpful in addressing your challenges. You will learn: • How to reach the next level of SOP without making new and significant investments • How to utilize a pragmatic scanning and project management method • How to leverage the strengths of the people and the team by standardizing processes Yves De Backer Supply Chain Operations Manager Buckman Europe Sacha De Backer Consultant Solventure Use of Leading Market Indicators for Demand Planning In today’s volatile market, a simple trend model is often insufficient. How can a forecaster predict future upturns or downturns in the market? The key is to develop a forecasting model that accounts for leading market indicators to predict demand development. This session presents an approach that allows companies to determine their significant market drivers and translate these into a regression forecast model. Join us to learn valuable forecasting techniques. You will learn: • How to evaluate market drivers based on fact • How to forecast upturns and downturns in your market • How to determine where trend models end, and how regression models add value Tony Tonnaer Manager Business Processes Customer Service Rockwool B.V. StijnRutjes Sr. Business Consultant EyeOn to developing complex and “From creating a simple demand plan,resource for anyasize company  robust SOP process IBF serves as a great ” James Gregorio, Executive Director Demand Planning, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment “Quality, quality and quality... for the speakers, the subjects and the conference in general. Kudos! ” Richard Groulx, Logistics Manager, Prevost (div. of Volvo Bus) 6 16
  7. 7. Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm FORECASTING PLANNING ROUND ROBIN, ROUND-TABLE DISCUSSIONS Increase your networking opportunities at IBF’s Amsterdam con­ ference by joining us at our very popular 1-hour Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up the most challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the field and hear and share best practices. Choose up to 3 of 5 timely and practical topics provided for your professional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you provide your customers, and increase your contact base in the planning forecasting community. All experience levels are invited and welcome. Plus, get a head start networking right before IBF’s Cocktail Reception! TOPICS: • emand Planning and Forecasting D ed Includ our ith Y nce W re Confe ration ist Reg Ownership • Collaboration Within and Outside the Organization: SOP and CPFR Respectively • Improving Forecast Accuracy Top-t ier sp onso r Exhibit Space is Available! What You Get: • rea for the exhibitor’s 10’ pop up booth, 6’ skirted table A and two chairs • Access for up to 2 people to man your booth • etworking opportunities with attendees during breaks N and all food functions • 1 complimentary registration pass for a client • /4 page BW ad in 1 issue of the Journal of Business 1 Forecasting • ONUS: Software Demo Opportunity/Company Overview B (Please note Limited Space) Exhibitor Fees: € 2430 EUR / $3000 USD For further information: Phone: +1.516.504.7576 | Email: smurray@ibf.org Hotel Information: Radisson Blu Amsterdam Airport Hotel Boeing Avenue 2 NL-1119 PB Schiphol-Rijk The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 655 3300 Email: Reservations.Amsterdam.Airport@Radissonblu.com Online Reservations: www.radissonblu.com/hotel-amsterdamairport Group Code: BUSFOR Special IBF Group Rate: € 174 EUR/night + tax (Breakfast Internet included) when you register before 20 October 2013. Reserve your room today! Become a Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF) Master Demand Planning, Forecasting, and SOP with IBF Certification Benefits of IBF Certification FOR EMPLOYEES: • ccelerate your career growth, leadership opportunities, A marketability, and job security • alidate your professional experience, knowledge, and V skill-sets in the field • uild confidence knowing that you’re prepared for today’s B rapidly changing marketplace • omplement your supply chain education certifications with IBF C • ecome more recognized at your company, as well as in the field B • aster demand planning, forecasting and SOP M FOR EMPLOYERS: • ave time and resources as IBF certified individuals are S pre-qualified, allowing you to quickly identify the right person for a forecasting/demand planning job • ain assurance that an IBF Certified individual has the background G to help improve forecasting performance and hit the ground running • ncrease the value of your forecasting and demand planning staff, I department, and company • ave time and resources in training — CPF or ACPF professionals S already have a verified body of knowledge Get Certified after the conference! Please visit www.ibf.org for additional exam dates and locations. Exam Date: 23 November 2013 Register on our website, www.ibf.org or call us @+1.516.504.7576 for more details. EARN 10 POINTS TOWARD RE-CERTIFICATION BY ATTENDING THIS CONFERENCE! 7
  8. 8. Victor Shevtsov, VP Supply Chain and Operations Strategy | PepsiCo Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org / 1311eu.cfm Victor Shevtsov is currently serving as Supply Chain and Operations Strategy Vice President for PepsiCo Europe. In this role, Victor is leading the transformation agenda for PepsiCo’s European Markets. Serving as VP Operations Russia and CIS Victor played the instrumental role in PepsiCo’s infrastructure development supporting rapid volume growth and tremendous portfolio expansion. Victor holds a Masters in Radio Engineering and MBA in Economics. Ahmed Abdul-hamed, ACPF, Demand Inventory Manager | Al Nahdi Medical Company Ahmed is a Certified Supply Chain Professional and IBF’s Advanced Certified Professional Forecaster (ACPF). He has diversified knowledge about retail, programming, supply chain, which has enabled him to play a vital role in improving company performance to meet organizational goals. He is responsible for the creation, development and maintenance of the reporting centralized replenishment function at the biggest retail pharmacy chain in the middle east, Nahdi Medical. Anne-Claire Aillet, CPF, EU Demand Planning Manager | SC Johnson Sarl Anne-Claire leads the European demand process and supports the implementation of new processes and improvements in the demand planning community. Before stepping into her current role, she was Category Demand Planner for Europe and Forecast and Inventory Manager for France. She holds an MS in Quality, an MS in Intelligence Marketing and earned her CPF from Institute of Business Forecasting. Ammar Aklan, Vice President-Supply Chain | Al-Nahdi Medical Company Ammar is on the team that is transforming Al-Nahdi from a traditional company to a fully integrated, automated company. He is also ensuring that the supply chain is upgraded in line with the new business model by redesigning the supply chain end to end and devising the five year supply chain road map. Ammar graduated from Sana’a University. Alexandre Balaton, Sales Planning Coordinator | Nissan Europe Marcel Baumgartner, EMEA Network Planning Manager | Nestlé Marcel Baumgartner leads the Demand Planning processes at Nestlé, the world’s leading Health, Nutrition and Wellness company. In his role, he helps Nestlé companies to take full advantage of modern business solutions and statistical forecasting methods, in order to achieve reliable Demand Plans, providing Nestlé’s customers with optimal stock levels. Marcel holds a Master in Statistics from Purdue University. Frederic Bourseul, EAME Supply Planning Head | Syngenta Fred leads the supply planning organization, which covers the supply chain management of integrated seeds and crop protection solutions. He also lead the implementation of an integrated SOP platform, and the development of functional excellence in the area of supply planning and SOP. Fred Bourseul, PhD has occupied different roles and functions ranging from Research Development to manufacturing and supply chain management, leading change to support and implement Syngenta strategies across organizations, processes and systems. Sven Crone, Director | Lancaster Research Centre for Forecasting Dr. Sven F. Crone is an expert in forecasting, with over 15 years of expertise in both its theory and practice. As an Assistant Professor and the director of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting (with 15 members the largest think tank dedicated to business forecasting) he has over 40 scientific publications with international awards for developing novel forecasting algorithms, trained over 500 demand planners, and consulted with industry leaders on improving forecasting methods, systems and processes. Sven is a regular speaker at IBF conferences, sharing insights from hands-on consultancy projects on SAP APO DP and the latest research in forecasting for FMCG/CPG, Call Centres and Energy Markets. Sacha De Backer, Consultant | Solventure Yves De Backer, Supply Chain Operations Manager | Buckman Europe 8
  9. 9. Sebastian Guerrero, Sr. Demand Supply Planning | Danone Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm Sebastián Guerrero is a Supply Chain professional with more than 13 years of experience working for multinational companies. He is currently EMEA Network Planning Manager at the Baby Nutrition Division of Danone, coming from the Waters Business in Argentina, his country of origin. Sebastian has sound knowledge of Supply Chain Planning processes, having implemented many improvement projects, including the implementation of IBP at two different Country Business Units of the company. He holds a degree in Industrial Engineering and is passionate about continuously generating, promoting and managing changes aimed at achieving world-class excellence. Martin Joseph, Managing Owner | Rivershill Consultancy Martin specialises in assessing and designing business forecasting, planning and decision-making business processes. He was formally Head of Information Management and Forecasting at AstraZeneca. In that role, Martin was responsible for the global forecasting business processes and systems. He was also responsible for the provision of the information required to support the AstraZeneca Global Supply Chain Teams. Martin is a regular speaker and has chaired a number of international cross-industry conferences on forecasting and supply chain planning. Martin is a past member of the Advisory Boards for the Institute of Business Forecasting and is an Associate of Nine-TZ Healthcare Ventures. Jonathon Karelse, President | Syncro Distribution, Inc. Following a successful tenure as Head of Yokohama Tire Canada’s Consumer Products division, Jonathon joined Wholesale Tire Distributors as VP - Strategic Planning and Corporate Development before founding his own distribution enterprise. He has developed forecasting and performance metrics for organizations such as American Express Bank of Canada, BMO Bank of Montreal, Future Shop/Best Buy and Yokohama Tire. Jonathon studied Economics at the University of Western Ontario before moving to Vancouver to study Law at the University of British Columbia. In 2008, he completed the MIT Sloan’s Executive program in Operations and Value Chain Management.Following a successful tenure as Head of Yokohama Tire Canada’s Consumer Products division, Jonathon joined Wholesale Tire Distributors as VP - Strategic Planning and Corporate Development before founding his own distribution enterprise. He has developed forecasting and performance metrics for organizations such as American Express Bank of Canada, BMO Bank of Montreal, Future Shop/Best Buy and Yokohama Tire. Jonathon studied Economics at the University of Western Ontario before moving to Vancouver to study Law at the University of British Columbia. In 2008, he completed the MIT Sloan’s Executive program in Operations and Value Chain Management. Fang Liao, EMEA Demand Planning Manager | ASICS Europe B.V. Fang has a bachelor degree in Computer Engineering and a MBA degree in International business. She worked in the Demand Supply planning field for eight years and joined ASICS in 2011, and is responsible for the end to end from demand to supply planning process of ASICS Europe. Thilo Lindner, Senior Expert Planning Processes–Sales and Operations Planning GSB/BD | BASF SE Thilo Lindner works as an Senior Expert in BASF’s Global Information Services Supply Chain Management division. He has been working for 10 years in the area of Supply Chain Management as Supply Chain Manager and as Global Project Manager for Sales and Operations Planning, Demand Planning and Supply Network Planning. He has run successfully global and regional projects to develop, customize and implement planning processes for the BASF group including the customizing of SAP APO and R/3 applications, training and change management. Thilo is APICS CPIM and CSCP certified and teaches APICS BSCM courses. He holds an Master Degree from Oregon State University, a High School Diploma from the University of Hamburg and an MBA from Steinbeis University of Berlin. Richard Loretto, Former Executive Director, Commercial Operations | Avon Loretto has 20 years of international performance improvement experience, most recently as executive director, commercial operations for Western Europe, Middle East, and Africa for Avon Cosmetics. He implemented an SOP process for Avon, significantly improving forecasting across markets, and enhancing cash-flow and gross margins. Previously, Loretto held positions with Proctor Gamble and was a principle consultant with Deloitte. He began his career with Unilever in the United Kingdom. He earned a master’s in economics from Cambridge University and is a Chartered Management Accountant. Ana-Maria Marinescu, Customer Development Business Forecast Manager | Mondel z International Ana-Maria has a passion for continuous improvement, driving results and enhancing efficiency by innovating ways of working, business processes and step-up customer collaboration. She has wide area of expertise in SOP, IBP, customer planning, inventory management, replenishment processes and performance metric development. Ana lead important company projects including customer baseline development and she re-designed SOP by incorporating customer bottom-up planning processes, IBP implementation, key subject matter expert in Navigator Project p romo planning system, redesigning trade marketing processes and improving planning process across the company. Kalle Rasmussens, Project Manager-Demand Planning | Beiersdorf Within Beiersdorf, the global skin care company, Kalle is responsible for continuous improvement projects for demand planning worldwide. Past and current projects vary from trade promotion planning and statistical modeling to Sales Operations Planning and the development of a Beiersdorf Supply Chain Planning Academy. Kalle holds a BSc in Business Administration and MSc in Supply Chain Management at the VU University Amsterdam. Stijn Rutjes, Sr. Business Consultant | EyeOn Stijn has broad experience in supply chain management in both the design and on operational tactical level. He has been involved in various Demand Supply Planning projects in the Process, High Tech and Food FMCG industry. Within Eyeon, Stijn is leading the Process Industry business team. Previously, he was responsible for the implementation of demand planning within various sales departments, European logistics managers and was responsible for the Sales Operations Planning process for one of the market segments. Stijn studied Industrial Engineering and Management Science at Eindhoven University of Technology, in the field of Logistic Control Systems. 9
  10. 10. Tony Tonnaer, Manager Business Processes Customer Service | Rockwool B.V. Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm Tony studied Business Economics at Tilburg University in the field of Logistics and Organization Science. He started at Rockwool BV twenty years ago and has been working in several areas of responsibility. Tony has built up a broad experience in organizational engineering, Logistical planning, Logistics concept redesign, customer service and pricing strategies. At the moment Tony is responsible for Customer service and Business Processes within the sales organization of Rockwool BV. Chris Turner, Co-founder | StrataBridge A highly respected facilitator, Chris has a unique ability to simplify and explain complex business models and has worked with management teams around the world. Chris’s long-term client relationships are built on his ability to balance the delivery of fast results with sustainability. Chris’s clients include Anheuser-Busch, AstraZeneca, Coca-Cola, Mars, SC Johnson, Shell. Mike van Baaren, Program Manager Supply Chain | ASICS Europe B.V. Mike started as manager customer service in 2006 and in 2011 became Program Manager Supply Chain. In that role he is responsible for the roll-out of the new forecasting process in all Asics Europe subsidiaries. Mike has a bachelor’s degree in Business administration. Lisanne van Diemen, Demand Forecast Analyst | DSM Lisanne is responsible for the forecast within the business unit Food Crop Protection and is team lead of the forecast analysts within DSM Food Specialties. She has significantly improved the forecast process when starting at Food Crop Protection by implementing a standardized forecast process (including an advanced planning tool) which provides vital information for the entire business unit. Lisanne holds a BSc in Business Administration and MSc in Supply Chain Management at the Rotterdam School of Management (Erasmus University Rotterdam). Willian van Slooten, Demand Forecast Analyst | DSM Willian is the Demand Forecast Analyst for Cultures and Dairy Enzymes, serving the Global Dairy market. He contributes to an advanced Sales and Operations Planning process, with a prominent role in the implementation of an advanced forecasting tool, which enables the use of statistical forecasting. Willian holds a BSc in Applied Mathematics and an MSc in Management of Technology, at Delft University of Technology. Henry Zamora, Production Planning, NISA Supply Chain Management | Nissan Europe Henry he is leading one of the main projects of the program which is the introduction of a Demand Forecasting process into the European Business. He has been working in projects related to the deployment of Demand Forecasting since the beginning of his career, he started by re-engineering the demand forecasting process in a food and beverage multinational, then he worked improving existing process at a pharmaceutical company. This experience has lead him to be a member of a breakthrough program which has the objective of transforming the current Nissan Europe Sales and Production Planning processes into an integrated SOP process. Henry holds a degree in Industrial Engineering and Master in International Business from Grenoble Ecole de Management. 10
  11. 11. w e d ne s d ay | 20 n o v ember 2013 Morning Refreshments REGISTRATION 09:00 – 16:30 Supply Chain Forecasting Planning Conference |  Europe | To Register, please call: +1 516 504 7576 or visit: www.ibf.org/1311eu.cfm 08:00 – 09:00 1-DAY FUNDAMENTALS OF DEMAND PLANNING FORECASTING TUTORIAL t h u r sd ay | 2 1 n o v ember 2013 07:00 – 08:00 Morning Refreshments REGISTRATION 08:00 – 08:15 Welcome OPENING REMARKS 08:20 – 09:20 1 Forecasting and Planning: No Compromises in the Business Solutions 2 Leveraging the Power of Integrated SOP Capabilities to Support Business Marcel Baumgartner 09:25 –10:25 Integration and Growth Strategy EMEA Network Planning Manager Nestlé Fred Bourseul 3 Integrated Commercial Forecasting Planning EAME Supply Planning Head Syngenta 4 The Day After - How to Ensure a Sustainable SOP Process Implementation Richard Loretto Thilo Lindner Former Executive Director Avon Senior Expert Planning Processes–Sales and Operations Planning GSB/BD BASF SE 10:25 –10:40 Mid-Morning Break | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS 10:40 –11:40 5 CPFR: How to Optimize the Use of an Advanced Planning System 6 New Product Forecasting Planning in the World of Fashion Sports Willian van Slooten, Demand Forecasting Lisanne van Diemen, Demand Forecasting Mike van Baaren Program Manager Supply Chain Fang Liao DSM EMEA Demand Planning Manager ASICS Europe B.V. 11:50 –12:30 lunch 12:30 –13:10 KEYNOTE PRESENTATION | The Role of SOP in Driving New Product Growth Victor Shevtsov VP Supply Chain and Operations Strategy PepsiCo 13:10 –13:40 MID-AFTERNOON BREAK | VISIT WITH EXHIBTORS 13:40 –14:40 7 How to Minimize Political Biases to Improve Forecasting and Increase 8 How to Support Business Priorities with ABC-XYZ the Effectiveness of SOP/IBP Anne-Claire Aillet, CPF Sr. Demand Supply Planning Danone 14:45 –15:45 Segmentation at SC Johnson Europe Sebastian Guerrero EU Demand Planning Manager SC Johnson Sarl 9 Managing Demand Planning Processes with ABC-XYZ-Analysis – ACase Study at Beiersdorf Kalle Rasmussens, Demand Planning Project Manager Beiersdorf Sven Crone, Director Lancaster Centre for Forecasting 15:45 –16:00 Distribution Strategy Development Officer Henry Zamora Production Planning, NISA Supply Chain Management Nissan Europe Round Robin Roundtable Discussion 17:05 –18:05 Alexandre Balaton Mid-afternoon Break | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS 16:00 –17:00 10 Driving Breakthrough SOP at Nissan Europe IBF Cocktail Reception f r i d ay | 22 n o v embe r 2013 07:00 – 08:00 Morning Refreshments REGISTRATION 08:00 – 09:00 11 Demand Forecasting in Fashion Jewelry as an Integral Part of the Swarovski SOP Cycle Albert Tösch, Head of Business Intelligence Swarovski AG Frédéric Arenas, Sr. Industry Consultant, Manufacturing Global Supply Chain Practice SAS 09:05 – 10:05 13 The Art and Science of Forecasting: When to Use Judgment? 12 Gearing Your SOP Process to Support a Growth Strategy – Integrating the ‘New Stuff’ Chris Turner Co-Founder StrataBridge 14 Boiling the Ocean – From Decentralized to Centralized Jonathon Karelse Planning Forecasting President Syncro Distribution, Inc. Ahmed Abdul-hamed, ACPF 10:05 – 10:20 Mid-Morning Break | VISIT WITH EXHIBITORS 10:20 – 11:20 15 Finding a Progressive and Self-Financing Approach to SOP Demand Inventory Manager Al Nahdi Medical Company 16 Use of Leading Market Indicators for Demand Planning Yves De Backer Manager Business Processes Customer Service Rockwool B.V. Sacha De Backer Stijn Rutjes Consultant Solventure 11:25 –12:25 Tony Tonnaer Supply Chain Operations Manager Buckman Sr. Business Consultant EyeOn SOP PANEL DISCUSSION Co n fe r en c e c o n c lU des saturday | 23 november 2013 | Exam Day 08:30 –16:30 | IBF Certification Day | CPF ACPF 11 GOOD LUCK!
  12. 12. pply Chain Su orecasting F lanning P o n fe r e n ce C d y Bir Earlicing R/ Pr 59 EU € 10 SD ONLY ,299 U ister $1 you reg n e whe befor 13! r 20 tobe 25 oc recasting Tutorial mand Planning Fo ls of De w/ 1-Day Fundamenta Europe amsterdam da m Ai rp or t Ho te l di ss on Bl u Am st er Am st er da m , Ne th er la nd s Ra 2 0 - 2 2 N o v e m b e r 20 13 Silver Package Gold Package Silver Group Package (2 Persons) Super Early Bird Pricing | Expires 13 September 2013 € 979 EUR  |  $1199 USD € 1139 EUR  |  $1399 USD € 1879 EUR  |  $2298 USD € 2199 EUR  |  $2698 USD Early Bird Pricing | Expires 25 October 2013 € 1059 EUR  |  $1299 USD € 1219 EUR  |  $1499 USD € 2039 EUR  |  $2498 USD € 2359 EUR  |  $2898 USD Regular Pricing € 1139 EUR  |  $1399 USD € 1299 EUR  |  $1599 USD € 2199 EUR  |  $2698 USD € 2519 EUR  |  $3098 USD Onsite Pricing € 1219 EUR  |  $1499 USD € 1379 EUR  |  $1699 USD € 2359 EUR  |  $2898 USD € 2679 EUR  |  $3298 USD IBF Membership Discount | $100(USD) OFF Eligible Included N /A Supply chain forecasting conference | 21-22 NOVEMBER 2013 REFRESHMENTS LUNCH ✔ ✔ ✔ IBF Membership (1 Year) Forecasting tutorial | 20 NOVEMBER 2013 (IBF Members ONLY) Registration Options COCKTAIL RECEPTION | 21 NOVEMBER 2013 Gold Group Package (2 Persons) Included + ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Certification Fee (optional) Non-Members: m $350 (USD) per exam IBF Members: m $300 (USD) per exam Please circle which Exam(s) you are interested in taking 1 2 3 4 5 Payment: Payment in full is required 15 days Please Register the following: (Photocopy if more than 1 Registrant) payment is received by that day, your registration Become an IBF Member prior to scheduled date of conference. Unless will be canceled. m $250 (USD) within USA m $300 (USD) outside USA Cancellations: Registrant may cancel without First Name Last Name / Surname penalty up to 15 days prior to the date of Job Title Company scheduled conference and receive a full refund. Address MS/Suite City State / Province / County Zip / Postal Code Telephone Fax Email Industry All cancellations must be submitted in writing. Cancellations received less than 15 days prior to (USD) scheduled conference are subject to a $195  service charge. No refunds will be given for Country cancellations made on the date and thereafter of scheduled conference. The Institute of Business Forecasting m Check m Payment Enclosed m Bill Company m Credit Card Visa / Mastercard / American Express / Discover Signature 12 Planning  IBF, reserves the right to substitute, –  Exp. Date eliminate, necessary. and/or reschedule speakers if

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