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Social Lending:
Where did it come
from, where is it
going?
James Alexander
Friday 30th November 2007
Consumers are changing



“… The consumer
  revolution of the last 30
  years is giving way to the
  Freeform Revolution of
  the next 30 …”
We have been here before
                                                                                              Turning
                                                       INSTALLATION                                          DEPLOYMENT
                                                                                               Point
         TECHNOLOGY
         REVOLUTION                             ERUPTION                         FRENZY                  GOLDEN AGE          MATURITY
1st      ‘Industrial                                                                 Panic
                                                                                                                                    1825
                                                                           Canal
         Revolution’                                                                 1797
                                      1771                                 mania                                          1819
                                                                           1793                                    1810


2nd                                                                              Panic
         Age of Steam
                                                                         Railway 1847                                                   1873
                                                                                                                             1866
         & Railways                                                  1836 mania                                       1857
                                       1829
                                                                            Revolutions1848

                                                                             1890
3rd      Age of Steel, Electricity                                                                         1903
                                                                            Argentina
         & Heavy Engineering                            The “Great                                                                     1920
                                                                                                           USA        1907
                                       1875                                  (Baring)
                                                        Depression”                                     “Rich man’s
                                                                                        USA
                                                                                                           panic”
                                                                                      1893


4th      Age of Oil, Automobiles                                                   1929        1930s
         & Mass Production                                                                                                               1974
                                                                  1920*          USA stock                            1960
                                                                                                and
                                       1908                                                                                         “Oil crisis”
                                                                                  mania
                                                                                                WWII



5th                                                                 1987            1997
         Age of Information
                                                                                     Asia                  2005
                                                                                                 ?
         & Telecommunications                      1974*                  1989                                      20??
                                       1971                                                                 eBay
                                                                                2000
                                                   “Oil crisis”      Collapse
                                                                     2nd World NASDAQ



Source: Carlota Perez ‘Technological Revolutions and Financial
Capital – the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages’
Freeform companies, enabled by
                        technology are transforming industries
                                                                                 Turning
                                                  INSTALLATION                               DEPLOYMENT
                                                                                  Point
          TECHNOLOGY
          REVOLUTION                         ERUPTION                 FRENZY               GOLDEN AGE      MATURITY
  5th                                                        1987       1997
          Age of Information
                                                                        Asia                2005
                                                                                    ?
          & Telecommunications                1974*            1989                                 20??
                                   1971                                                      eBay
                                                                         2000
                                              “Oil crisis”    Collapse
                                                              2nd World NASDAQ



               2000                                                                                                   2010
                                                                    2005



                                                                                                                ?
                                                                                                    ?
                                                              P2P Video
P2P Payments                     P2P Voice



                                                                               Social Networks
                                                                                                                      ?
                                                                                                            ?
P2P Trading                               P2P Social


Personalised
                                                                                             P2P Lending
   Search                                    P2P Photos
                  P2P Info


                                                 iTunes for music … Zopa for money
   eBay for things …
The online marketplace where people
                   meet to lend and borrow money
                   With no bank in the middle, both parties get better rates



Borrowers                                                                          Lenders
• Low, low rates                                                                   • Great Returns

• No banks                                                                         • It’s human

• It’s fair                                                                        • It’s safe

                                                                                   • You’re in control



Lenders receiving a c.30% better return than base rate; Borrowers borrowing c.30% below the market
Financial return and social reward
                Working, differentiated, compelling



    Launched in the UK March 2005
•

    >180,000 members
•

    Borrowers getting the cheapest
•
    loans in the country

    Lender returns 7-11%
•

    <0.2% defaults
•

    Just launched in Italy
•

    Imminent launch in US
•
Control, community, transparency and
               ethicality key for value and trust

Openness
             “No other financial site that I have visited
 is highly
             has the guts to run a discussion board
  valued
             and take it on the chin.

             That makes me feel like I am part of a
Users feel   community and seems to trigger a sense of
  valued     belonging. With belonging comes pride and
   and       passion.
committed

             When I tell my friends about Zopa I feel hurt
  Users      by any negative comments they make as
 become      though the site was my own, and for that
champions    reason it gets me all wound up when I see
 of Zopa     even the tiniest glitches on the site”

              Mosshill, Zopa lender (Oct 18 2006, 09:17 AM)
An evolving model
More involving, more viral
Social Lending is already global
Expect proliferation, niches developing, consolidation
Parting challenges


    What new opportunities can you
•
    see to serve Freeformers?

    How will you provide an experience
•
    that embraces
     • Community?
     • Transparency?
     • Control?
     • Ethicality?

    How will you take your brand into a
•
    consumers life and give up
    demanding they hold a relationship
    with you?

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Zopa

  • 1. Social Lending: Where did it come from, where is it going? James Alexander Friday 30th November 2007
  • 2. Consumers are changing “… The consumer revolution of the last 30 years is giving way to the Freeform Revolution of the next 30 …”
  • 3. We have been here before Turning INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT Point TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION ERUPTION FRENZY GOLDEN AGE MATURITY 1st ‘Industrial Panic 1825 Canal Revolution’ 1797 1771 mania 1819 1793 1810 2nd Panic Age of Steam Railway 1847 1873 1866 & Railways 1836 mania 1857 1829 Revolutions1848 1890 3rd Age of Steel, Electricity 1903 Argentina & Heavy Engineering The “Great 1920 USA 1907 1875 (Baring) Depression” “Rich man’s USA panic” 1893 4th Age of Oil, Automobiles 1929 1930s & Mass Production 1974 1920* USA stock 1960 and 1908 “Oil crisis” mania WWII 5th 1987 1997 Age of Information Asia 2005 ? & Telecommunications 1974* 1989 20?? 1971 eBay 2000 “Oil crisis” Collapse 2nd World NASDAQ Source: Carlota Perez ‘Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital – the Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages’
  • 4. Freeform companies, enabled by technology are transforming industries Turning INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT Point TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION ERUPTION FRENZY GOLDEN AGE MATURITY 5th 1987 1997 Age of Information Asia 2005 ? & Telecommunications 1974* 1989 20?? 1971 eBay 2000 “Oil crisis” Collapse 2nd World NASDAQ 2000 2010 2005 ? ? P2P Video P2P Payments P2P Voice Social Networks ? ? P2P Trading P2P Social Personalised P2P Lending Search P2P Photos P2P Info iTunes for music … Zopa for money eBay for things …
  • 5. The online marketplace where people meet to lend and borrow money With no bank in the middle, both parties get better rates Borrowers Lenders • Low, low rates • Great Returns • No banks • It’s human • It’s fair • It’s safe • You’re in control Lenders receiving a c.30% better return than base rate; Borrowers borrowing c.30% below the market
  • 6. Financial return and social reward Working, differentiated, compelling Launched in the UK March 2005 • >180,000 members • Borrowers getting the cheapest • loans in the country Lender returns 7-11% • <0.2% defaults • Just launched in Italy • Imminent launch in US •
  • 7. Control, community, transparency and ethicality key for value and trust Openness “No other financial site that I have visited is highly has the guts to run a discussion board valued and take it on the chin. That makes me feel like I am part of a Users feel community and seems to trigger a sense of valued belonging. With belonging comes pride and and passion. committed When I tell my friends about Zopa I feel hurt Users by any negative comments they make as become though the site was my own, and for that champions reason it gets me all wound up when I see of Zopa even the tiniest glitches on the site” Mosshill, Zopa lender (Oct 18 2006, 09:17 AM)
  • 8. An evolving model More involving, more viral
  • 9. Social Lending is already global Expect proliferation, niches developing, consolidation
  • 10. Parting challenges What new opportunities can you • see to serve Freeformers? How will you provide an experience • that embraces • Community? • Transparency? • Control? • Ethicality? How will you take your brand into a • consumers life and give up demanding they hold a relationship with you?