The document analyzes economic developments in the UK including growth, inflation, output gap, unemployment, aggregate demand, housing market, consumer spending, investment, employment trends, and monetary policy. It finds that real GDP growth has been slow since the recession, inflation is low, unemployment remains above pre-recession levels, and the Bank of England has kept interest rates low through its new policy of forward guidance.
The United Kingdom is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), ninth-largest in the world measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), and nineteenth-largest in the world measured by GDP per capita, comprising 4% of world GDP. It is the second-largest economy in the European Union by both metrics. In 2016, the UK was 19/28 for GDP growth in Europe, with the third lowest unemployment rate.
This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
Labour market performance remains strong
But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
2018 has been a year dominated by increased uncertainty over the possibility of the UK making a disorderly exit from the European Union and, given the instability of domestic politics at the moment, it would be a surprise if 2019 panned out differently. According to research from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, If the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales or the output of the financial services industry in London. This is equivalent to a loss of 3 per cent in GDP per head, worth around £1,000 per person per annum to people in the UK.
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
The United Kingdom is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), ninth-largest in the world measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), and nineteenth-largest in the world measured by GDP per capita, comprising 4% of world GDP. It is the second-largest economy in the European Union by both metrics. In 2016, the UK was 19/28 for GDP growth in Europe, with the third lowest unemployment rate.
This is a revision presentation on the state of the UK economy five months on from the June 23rd Brexit vote.
Overview:
Post-Brexit impact yet to fully materialize in the macro data
Inflation is back with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency since June 2016
Labour market performance remains strong
But scale of UK current account deficit is a problem
Structural weaknesses on the UK supply-side are unlikely to be resolved soon despite renewed focus on infrastructure and industrial policy in the new May/Hammond government
Productivity and skills gaps hurt UK competitiveness
Risk is that Brexit will lower the UK’s trend growth rate if the economy is not “match-fit” post 2019
Lots of external uncertainties as we head into 2017
2018 has been a year dominated by increased uncertainty over the possibility of the UK making a disorderly exit from the European Union and, given the instability of domestic politics at the moment, it would be a surprise if 2019 panned out differently. According to research from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, If the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales or the output of the financial services industry in London. This is equivalent to a loss of 3 per cent in GDP per head, worth around £1,000 per person per annum to people in the UK.
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
The slides comprehends a firm understanding of the formation and functioning of British Economy
Highlights:
Foundation of British Economy
Nature of The Economy
Britain’s Current Economic Scenario ¡ London Stock Exchange
London vs. Economy
Role of The Government
Involvement in International Trade
Forecast on British Economy
The official name of UK is “United kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland”
United kingdom began in 1707 with political union of the kingdom of England and Scotland
The economy of UK is highly developed & market oriented
It has made significant contribution in technology & industry to the world economy.
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
Components of Aggregate Demand in recent years
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
UK Bond Yields during 2016
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
A detailed analysis of the prospects for the UK economy in 2012 from Geoff Riley at tutor2u. Among the key themes explored by Geoff are:
Are we already back in recession?
A damaging legacy from the slump
Have policies lost their effectiveness?
Macro fragility in a world of external shocks
In this short revision video, we look at the substantial productivity gap between the UK and many of the UK’s major competitor countries.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist said twenty fives years ago that “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything,”
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook June 2016John Ashcroft
Growth in 2015 was 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2014. We now expect growth of 2.2% in 2016 … following the disappointing performance of manufacturing and construction in the first quarter.
The inflation outlook is still muted, with the fall in world oil, energy, food and commodity prices continuing to dominate headline inflation.
The UK economy grew by 2.0% in the first quarter, revisions to construction and manufacturing growth pulling total output lower. The service sector continues to drive growth.
In this June economics update we forecast world growth of 3.2% in 2016 up from 3.1% in 2015. UK Inflation will average just 0.3%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year 2016. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output falls slightly.
We are forecasting a modest fall in manufacturing of around 0.2% in 2016 with a 0.9% fall in construction activity based on the latest data. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a further £2 billion oil dividend, despite a moderate oil price recovery. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term.
Our forecast is based on a "remain" referendum outcome! .
Falling unemployment, declining inflation and stronger growth – a better picture for the UK in 2014? But can it last?
After several years of weak expansion, the UK economy is enjoying a relatively strong cyclical recovery
Can the UK continued to experience a recovery in output, jobs and investment?
Will the recovery be balanced and sustainable?
How resilient is the UK? What are some of the major threats to growth in 2014 and beyond?
The slides comprehends a firm understanding of the formation and functioning of British Economy
Highlights:
Foundation of British Economy
Nature of The Economy
Britain’s Current Economic Scenario ¡ London Stock Exchange
London vs. Economy
Role of The Government
Involvement in International Trade
Forecast on British Economy
The official name of UK is “United kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland”
United kingdom began in 1707 with political union of the kingdom of England and Scotland
The economy of UK is highly developed & market oriented
It has made significant contribution in technology & industry to the world economy.
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
Components of Aggregate Demand in recent years
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
UK Bond Yields during 2016
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
A detailed analysis of the prospects for the UK economy in 2012 from Geoff Riley at tutor2u. Among the key themes explored by Geoff are:
Are we already back in recession?
A damaging legacy from the slump
Have policies lost their effectiveness?
Macro fragility in a world of external shocks
In this short revision video, we look at the substantial productivity gap between the UK and many of the UK’s major competitor countries.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist said twenty fives years ago that “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything,”
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union.
Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote
A few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister.
The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU remain uncertain.
Hard Brexit
Means that the United Kingdom leaves the EU Single Market and trades under World Trade Organization rules
Under WTO rules, each member must grant the same market access—including charging the same tariffs—to all other members as the most favoured nation
Soft Brexit
Involves the option of staying in the Single Market (like Norway)
As a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), Norway has a free trade agreement with the European Union, which means that there are no tariffs on trade between the two
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook June 2016John Ashcroft
Growth in 2015 was 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2014. We now expect growth of 2.2% in 2016 … following the disappointing performance of manufacturing and construction in the first quarter.
The inflation outlook is still muted, with the fall in world oil, energy, food and commodity prices continuing to dominate headline inflation.
The UK economy grew by 2.0% in the first quarter, revisions to construction and manufacturing growth pulling total output lower. The service sector continues to drive growth.
In this June economics update we forecast world growth of 3.2% in 2016 up from 3.1% in 2015. UK Inflation will average just 0.3%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year 2016. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output falls slightly.
We are forecasting a modest fall in manufacturing of around 0.2% in 2016 with a 0.9% fall in construction activity based on the latest data. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a further £2 billion oil dividend, despite a moderate oil price recovery. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term.
Our forecast is based on a "remain" referendum outcome! .
Falling unemployment, declining inflation and stronger growth – a better picture for the UK in 2014? But can it last?
After several years of weak expansion, the UK economy is enjoying a relatively strong cyclical recovery
Can the UK continued to experience a recovery in output, jobs and investment?
Will the recovery be balanced and sustainable?
How resilient is the UK? What are some of the major threats to growth in 2014 and beyond?
This is a presentation on aspects of the recent performance of the UK economy. All students are expected to have a good contextual knowledge of recent trends in indicators such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment, the trade balance, interest rates and government borrowing.
Inspirational presentation from Nick Parsons,Head of Research, UK and Europe and Global Head FX Strategy | Wholesale Banking | National Australia Bank Limited
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
There are multiple factors behind Sterling’s collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterling’s demise, in my view, is not the UK’s large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterling’s greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of “Hard Brexit”, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party – which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU – and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
This is a video recording of a live AS macro revision webinar that looked at some examples of external demand and supply-side shocks that can affect countries such as the UK. In the video I explained six key "shock absorbers" - ways in which a country might be better placed to cope with the impact of world demand, supply and financial shocks to their economic systems.
Lessons for Inclusive Growth from the US & the World - by Jason FurmanWB_Research
Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu discussed growth strategy on July 21, 2014 at World Bank HQ.
In this revision presentation we look at recent trends in UK trade union membership, consider how trade unions can affect both pay and employment and challenge the textbook view that union-negotiated pay increases inevitably have negative consequences for employment.
In this revision presentation we cover key examples of pure and quasi public goods and consider the arguments for and against an increase in government spending on public goods.
Poverty Reduction Policies in Low Income Countriestutor2u
This revision presentation covers some of the main causes of continued high levels of extreme poverty in low and middle income countries and considers a range of pro-poor government interventions designed to increase productivity and regular employment and waged income in formal labour markets.
Microeconomics - Great Applied Examples for Examstutor2u
In this presentation, I have chosen loads of current examples that you might want to use as context in your microeconomics exams. We look at examples from different market structures, recent mergers and takeovers, the world's most valuable companies, the largest employer, unicorn business, de-mergers, the biggest initial public offerings (IPOs) and much else. Hopefully a useful video to go through to add some super examples into your revision notes.
This revision presentation considers the variety of stakeholders impacted by business activity. How will a change in objectives, such as a move from profit maximisation to revenue maximisation have an effect on different stakeholders?
This revision presentation looks at profit satisficing as an alternative objective for businesses. Why might firms satisfice? What are some of the possible consequences for economic welfare and efficiency?
In this presentation we consider the theory of wage-setting with a monopsony employer and the possible impact that a trade union might have on wages and employment. We also look at efficiency wage theory and mutual gains from pay bargaining between stakeholders.
For many economists, the labour market is the most important market of all to study, analyse and evaluate. Like product markets for goods and services, labour markets can also fail. The main types of labour market failure are labour immobility including skills gaps, inequality, disincentives to be economically active, labour market discrimination and the effects of monopsony power of employers.
Updated revision presentation on aspects of behavioural economics and topical issues where behavioural nudges are being used to change the choices of consumers and businesses.
Using the data, explain two likely causes of the forecast of slower growth for the UK economy
Examine two difficulties facing economists when forecasting economic growth
In this revision video we consider some of the strategies that might be effective in controlling the monopsony power of businesses such as multinational coffee roasters and giant retailers including Amazon and the major supermarkets.
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
What is Enterprise Excellence?
Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
What might I learn?
A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
Who might benefit? Anyone and everyone leading folks from the shop floor to top floor.
Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
Know more: https://www.synapseindia.com/technology/mean-stack-development-company.html
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
Skye Residences | Extended Stay Residences Near Toronto Airportmarketingjdass
Experience unparalleled EXTENDED STAY and comfort at Skye Residences located just minutes from Toronto Airport. Discover sophisticated accommodations tailored for discerning travelers.
Website Link :
https://skyeresidences.com/
https://skyeresidences.com/about-us/
https://skyeresidences.com/gallery/
https://skyeresidences.com/rooms/
https://skyeresidences.com/near-by-attractions/
https://skyeresidences.com/commute/
https://skyeresidences.com/contact/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-and-balcony/
https://skyeresidences.com/queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-king-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed/
https://skyeresidences.com/2-bedroom-deluxe-queen-suite-with-sofa-bed-accessible/
#Skye Residences Etobicoke, #Skye Residences Near Toronto Airport, #Skye Residences Toronto, #Skye Hotel Toronto, #Skye Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Airport, #Near Toronto Airport Accommodation, #Suites Near Toronto Airport, #Etobicoke Suites Near Airport, #Hotel Near Toronto Pearson International Airport, #Toronto Airport Suite Rentals, #Pearson Airport Hotel Suites
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
As a business owner in Delaware, staying on top of your tax obligations is paramount, especially with the annual deadline for Delaware Franchise Tax looming on March 1. One such obligation is the annual Delaware Franchise Tax, which serves as a crucial requirement for maintaining your company’s legal standing within the state. While the prospect of handling tax matters may seem daunting, rest assured that the process can be straightforward with the right guidance. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll walk you through the steps of filing your Delaware Franchise Tax and provide insights to help you navigate the process effectively.
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviewsusawebmarket
Buy Verified PayPal Account
Looking to buy verified PayPal accounts? Discover 7 expert tips for safely purchasing a verified PayPal account in 2024. Ensure security and reliability for your transactions.
PayPal Services Features-
🟢 Email Access
🟢 Bank Added
🟢 Card Verified
🟢 Full SSN Provided
🟢 Phone Number Access
🟢 Driving License Copy
🟢 Fasted Delivery
Client Satisfaction is Our First priority. Our services is very appropriate to buy. We assume that the first-rate way to purchase our offerings is to order on the website. If you have any worry in our cooperation usually You can order us on Skype or Telegram.
24/7 Hours Reply/Please Contact
usawebmarketEmail: support@usawebmarket.com
Skype: usawebmarket
Telegram: @usawebmarket
WhatsApp: +1(218) 203-5951
USA WEB MARKET is the Best Verified PayPal, Payoneer, Cash App, Skrill, Neteller, Stripe Account and SEO, SMM Service provider.100%Satisfection granted.100% replacement Granted.
What are the main advantages of using HR recruiter services.pdfHumanResourceDimensi1
HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
3. Real GDP for the UKQuarterly value of real GDP (at constant prices, value added measure)
Source: Office of National Statistics
£(billions)
£(billions)
4. Growth and the Output GapTop pane: Real GDP Bottom Pane: Output Gap measured as a % of potential GDP source: OECD
UK Real GDP and Output Gap
Source: Reuters EcoWin
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
PercentageofpotentialGDP
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
thousandbillions
1.350
1.375
1.400
1.425
1.450
1.475
1.500
atconstantprices(thousandbillions)
1.350
1.375
1.400
1.425
1.450
1.475
1.500
PLOG ‐ a persistent large
output gap
5. Output gap and unemploymentOutput Gap (% of potential GDP), Unemployment - Labour Force Survey measure
The Output Gap and Unemployment in the UK
Source: Reuters EcoWin
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Percent
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Unemployment rate (LFS measure)
Output gap (% of potential GDP)
6. Aggregate Demand (AD)£bn per year at constant 2003 prices
The Components of Aggregate Demand
Consumer spending
Capital investment
Government consumption
Imports
Exports
Source: UK Statistics Commission
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
thousandbillions
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
GBP(thousandbillions)
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
8. Another look at the cycleAnnual percentage change in real GDP measured at constant prices
Growth in UK Real National Output
Source: UK Statistics Commission
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Percent
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Percent
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
New normal growth rate
likely to be slow .............
9. Tracking output by sectorIndex of Output (Value Added) at Constant Prices, Seasonally Adjusted, Index, 2009=100
Manufacturing Construction UK Real GDP Finance and Insurance
Source: Office for National Statistics
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Indexofoutput2009=100
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Indexofoutput2009=100
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
13. % annual change in household spending and GDP at constant 2000 prices
Source: Office of National Statistics
Annual%change
Annual%change
Real GDP
Consumer spending
Household demand is main
short term driver of AD
18. Real House PricesReal, house prices, Percentage change from previous year
Asset Price Deflation - Real Property Prices in Selected Countries
United Kingdom Spain Greece Ireland Germany
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Percent
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Percent
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
19. Consumer confidence remains weakExpectations over next 12 months, % balance of optimists over pessimists
Source: Reuters EcoWin
PercentageBalanceofrespondents
State of the economy
Likely to make major purchases
People's Own Financial Situation
20. State of the EconomyPer cent of respondents
Survey about the State of the UK Economy
UK Current Economic Situation, Bad
UK Current Economic Situation, Don't know
UK Current Economic Situation, Good
UK Current Economic Situation, Normal
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Percent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
21. Low wage growth and the squeeze on real
incomes continues
Annual growth of regular weekly pay, consumer price inflation (%)
Annual Change in Weekly Regular Pay and CPI Inflation
Average Weekly Pay, 3 month average, seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (All Items)
Source: Office of National Statistics
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Percent
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Percent
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Regular Weekly Pay (% annual change)
23. Total Real Capital Investment Spending UK
United Kingdom, Short-term interest rate
Source: UK Statistics Commission
percent
billions
£(billions)
24. Jobs and prices
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Percent
UK Unemployment Rate (Labour Force Survey, % of labour force)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual % change)
25. Oil prices affect AD and SRAS
Source: Reuters EcoWin
USdollarsperbarrel
The external
environment
matters a lot
for the UK
economy
World oil price seems to
have stabilised around
$100 a barrel................
26. Annual % change in UK GDP at constant prices,% of labour force unemployed
Source: UK Statistics Commission
Percentofthelabourforce
PercentagegrowthofGDP
Real GDP (Annual % Change) LHS
Unemployment (% of the labour force) RHS
Deep recession (> 6% fall in
output) and weak recovery
(GDP grew only 0.7% in 2011)
Economy needs
to grow at least
2% for
unemployment
to start falling
28. Monthly level of redundanciesMonthly total
Redundancies in the UK Economy
Source: Reuters EcoWin
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
300000
325000
redundancies
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
300000
325000
29. Regional Unemployment RatesA selection of regional unemployment rates, per cent of the labour force, LFS measure
London
North East
Northern Ireland
Scotland
South East
Yorks and Humber
UK
Source: UK Labour Market Statistics
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
GBP
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
30. Employment in two key industriesQuarterly level of employment, seasonally adjusted, million
Employment in UK Manufacturing and Construction Industries
Construction Industry Employment Manufacturing Industry Employment
Source: UK Office of National Statistics
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Personsemployed(millions)
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
Personsemployed(millions)
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.25
Manufacturing
Construction
33. Long term youth unemploymentThousands, people out of work for at least a year
Long Term Unemployment for people Aged 18-24
Source: Reuters EcoWin
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
34. Unemployment and Trend Growth (UK)Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Unemployment rate (%)
Estimated UK Trend Growth Rate
35. Euro Zone Jobs Crisis
Unemployment Employment Labour force
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
millions
135.0
137.5
140.0
142.5
145.0
147.5
150.0
152.5
155.0
157.5
160.0
Person(millions)
135.0
137.5
140.0
142.5
145.0
147.5
150.0
152.5
155.0
157.5
160.0
Total Employment
Size of Labour Force
millions
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Person(millions)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Total Unemployment in the Euro Area
38. The Cost of Credit
Personal Lending Rates, Bank and Building Society, Average Credit Card Rate
Average Overdraft Interest Rate
Bank Rate (Policy Rate) Set by Bank of England MPC
Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate, average
Source: Bank of England
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Percentinterestonloans
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Percentinterestonloans
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Mortgage rates
Base Interest Rates (set by Bank of England)
Overdrafts
Credit cards Official interest rates are about as low as
they can go and government bond yields
are at record lows. Yet regular borrowers
are paying well above these rates
39. Bank lending
M4 lending, Chg Y/Y M4 Lending, 3 month M4 Lending, 6 month
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Percent
QE started in March 2009
40. Mortgage approvalsMonthly figure, seasonally adjusted
Number of loans approved for UK house purchase
Source: Council for Mortgage Lenders
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Numberof
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
42. Top pane: Effective exchange rate index, Bottom pane: Trade balance in goods and services
Effective Exchange Rate Index, annual average value
Trade balance in Goods & Services, annual balance £bn
Source: IMF, UK Balance of Trade Statistics
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
billions
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Tradebalance(billions)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
70
80
90
100
110
ExchangeRateIndex
70
80
90
100
110
Trade balance has been
negative since 1997, mainly as
the result of a chronic deficit
in goods trade
Depreciation of
sterling from 2007
to 2009
43. Current Account
Services
Net Investment Income
Transfers Balance
Goods
Source: Statistics Commission BoP Statistics
£(billions)
£(billions)
Trade in Goods Current account
Transfers
Investment income
Trade in Services
High trade surplus in services
Trade deficit in goods now over £100bn
44. Seasonally adjusted, quarterly trade balance, £ billion
Source: Reuters EcoWin
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
billions
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sterling(£)(billions)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Trade in services
Trade in goods
Key services:
Business services
Financial services
Transport and tourism
Education and Health
Creative industries
Research and development
Key goods:
Manufactured goods
Oil / gas / minerals
Food and drink
Components
Services
UK is the largest service
exporter in the EU
45. UK Balance of Trade in OilTrade Balance £bn and Brent Crude ($s per barrel)
UK Trade in Oil and Brent Crude Oil Price
Source: Reuters EcoWin
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
USD/Barrel
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Annual average price for Brent crude oil
billions
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
GBP(billions)
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Annual UK balance of trade in oil
46. Trade Balance in Gas£ billion - annual value of exports and imports at constant 2006 prices
Source: UK Trade Statistics
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
billions
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
£(billions)
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
Exports of Gas from the UK
Imports of Gas into the UK
47. Trade balance in finished manufacturedTrade balance (Exports - Imports) £ billion per quarter, source: ONS
UK Trade Balance in Finished Manufactured Goods
Source: Reuters EcoWin
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
billions
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
GBP(billions)
-17.5
-15.0
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
The structural trade deficit in
manufactured goods seems to
have stabilised but why is the UK
such a large net importer of
manufactured products?
48. UK – EU27 Trade BalanceMonthly balance of trade in goods and services, £ billion, seasonally adjusted
United Kingdom Trade Balance with EU27
Source: Reuters EcoWin
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
billions
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
GBP(billions)
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
49. UK – India TradeAnnual data, £ billion
Source: Reuters EcoWin
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
billions
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
GBP(billions)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exports to India
Imports from India
Annual Balance of Trade
50. UK China Trade£ billion per month, trade in goods and services
UK, Exports to and Imports from China
Source: Reuters EcoWin
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
billions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
GBP(billions)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Exports to China
Imports from China
51. Exports and Imports as Share of GDPAnnual value of UK exports as a percentage of GDP
UK- Exports and Imports of Goods and Services as % of GDP
Exports of goods & services, % Imports of goods & services, %
Source: Euro Stat
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
%ofGDP
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
%ofGDP
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
52. FDI into the UK EconomyValue of external liabilities - direct and portfolio investment
Foreign Investment in the UK Economy
Source: Reuters EcoWin
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
thousandbillions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
£(thousandbillions)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Portfolio investment
Direct investment
53. Fiscal PolicyMeasured as a % of national income, data for 2013-14 is a forecast
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
PercentofGDP
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
Tax Revenue (% of GDP)
Government Spending (% of GDP)
The big issue in fiscal
policy is fiscal austerity –
i.e. Cutting the budget
deficit through spending
cuts and tax rises G>T =
budget
deficit
54. How much borrowing can the UK take?
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
%ofGDP
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Annual government budget balance
Budget deficit
Budget surplus
20
40
60
80
%ofGDP
20
40
60
80
Net Government Debt (% of GDP)
Fiscal austerity as Coalition aims to cut the
size of the budget deficit over the next five
years – will the pain work?
55. monthly average 10 year bond yield, per cent, source: IMF
Greece Ireland UK Spain Italy
Source: IMF
08 09 10 11 12 13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
The UK government can borrow money for
10 years at cheap interest rates (around
2%) – whereas the cost of borrowing for
other countries is significantly higher – this
gives the UK an advantage – has it been
used well?
56. Interest on UK Government Debt£ billion at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted
Interest Payable on United Kingdom Government Debt
Source: Reuters EcoWin
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
£(billions)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
£(billions)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
57. Government spendingAnnual % change in government spending at constant prices, 2013 and 2014 is a forecast
UK Government Spending and the Economic Cycle
Real government spending Real GDP [ar 1 year]
Source: OECD World Economic Outlook
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Percent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Growth of Real GDP
Growth of Govt Spending
Govt spending chart does not include capital spending
58. The squeeze on public sector jobsPer cent, seasonally adjusted
UK Public Sector Employment as % of Total Employment
Source: Reuters EcoWin
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
millions
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
GBP(millions)
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
61. Productivity in the UKIndex of output per hour worked, whole economy, seasonally adjusted
Source: Reuters EcoWin
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
87.5
90.0
92.5
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
Index
87.5
90.0
92.5
95.0
97.5
100.0
102.5
105.0
One of the puzzles of the
period since the recession
came to an end – why has
labour productivity grown so
slowly?