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Human-Computer Interaction, Universität Hamburg
Prof. Dr. Frank Steinicke
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Elephants do not eat mice, but cheetahs eat gnus
It's not the BIG …
… that eats the SMALL,
… but it's the FAST
that eats the SLOW!
censored
Speed of Innovation?
~20 years
~5050 days
~250 month
„Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.“
Frederick Phillips Brooks, Jr.
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Apple Computer, Inc., 1984
Xerox PARC, Xerox Palo, 1973
William English & Douglas C. Engelbart, 1968
Rainer Mallebrein (Telefunken): Rollkugel , 1968
12
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Time
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Long Nose
13
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Time
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Growthofanidea
Long Nose
14
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Long Nose
16
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Incremental Innovation
Incremental Innovation
15-25 years of incremental improvements
Long Nose
18
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Incremental Innovation
?
Ambalappuzha Sri Krishna Temple
Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam
Legend of Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam
32 64 128
32 64 128
256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 32868
64K 128K 256K 512K 1M
32 64 128
256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 32868
64K 128K 256K 512K 1M 2M 4M 8M
16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1G 2G
4G 8G 16G 32G 64G 128G 256G 512G
1T 2T 4T 8T 16T 32T 64T 128T
256T 512T 1P 2P 4P 8P 16P 32P
64P 128P 256P 512P 1E 2E 4E 8E
Legend of Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam
Exponential Growth
Example
26W.A. Wagenaar, S.D. Sagaria: Misperception of exponential growth, Perception & Psychophysics, 1975
Year # index
1971 2,300
1972 3,500
1974 4,500
1976 8,500
1978 29,000
• Group 1: How large will the index be in 1989?
• Group 2: In which year will the index surpass 275,000?
27
Gordon E. Moore
“With unit cost falling as the
number of components per
circuit rises, by 1975
economics may dictate
squeezing as many as
65,000 components on a
single silicon chip.”
Reliability
28
TIME: The Year Man Becomes Immortal, 2011
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Radar
Stock chart: Eastman Kodak Company
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Steven J. Sasson: Portable all electronic still camera, 1975
Digital Images
Implications
35
photo
scanner printer
photo copies
Digital Images
Implications
36
Digital Music
Implications
37
audio CD
CD reader CD writer
CD copies
Digital Music
Implications
38
Digital Fabrication
Implications
39
physical objects
3D scanner 3D printer
physical copies
Digital Fabrication
Implications
40
Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation
Disruptive Innovation
Result of ~20 years of Incremental Innovation
43
Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction
Growthofanidea
Time
Radar
W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008
15-25 years
Incremental Innovation
DisruptiveInnovation
Exponential Innovation
Exponential Innovation
To avoid death, we should focus on
incremental innovation by refining existing
technologies, as much as on disruptive
innovation by novel creation and research.
This ability is at the heart of exponential
innovation.
44
Human-Computer Interaction
Universität Hamburg
informatik
die zukunft
Human-Computer Interaction
Universität Hamburg
Thanks!
Human-Computer Interaction
Universität Hamburg
Questions?
Discussion!

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