The document discusses the impacts of climate change on manure storage in the Northeast U.S., highlighting the need for updated management practices and storage designs due to increasing precipitation and storm intensity. It presents data on rainfall patterns and projections, emphasizing the necessity for larger storage capacities and adaptations to address the changed climate. Recommendations include assistance from NRCS for risk management and modifications in storage practices to accommodate anticipated changes in manure production and environmental conditions.

1. Impacts of Changing Climate
in the Northeast on Manure
Storages
Peter Wright, State Conservation Engineer
NRCS Syracuse NY
Jessica Rennells, Climatologist
Arthur DeGaetano, Director
Northeast Regional Climate Center
Curt Gooch, PRO-Dairy
Cornell University

3. Storage Issues
• Management
• Design
• Climate Change
Slide 3

4. Ideal Management
• Sized correctly based on CNMP
• Emptied according to plan
• Solids controlled
• Drainage area controlled
• Manure production stays same

7. Slide 7

8. Actual Management
• Sized based on affordability
• May not be emptied according to plan
• Solids build up (or pump out limited)
• Drainage area increased
• Manure production increases
– More cows
– More production

9. 007-23

10. Slide 10

11. Slide 11

12. Slide 12

16. Design Adaptations
• Extra months of storage
• 2 x the 24 hr.- 25 yr. storm
• 10% production increase
Slide 16

17. Impacts of Climate Change?
• Severe storms
• More total precipitation
Slide 17

18. 18
Results: Albany, New York
TP-40 NRCC
Rainfall Data 4.5 in 3.71 in
Rainfall
Distribution Type
Type II WinTR-20
Runoff Volume
10Yr-24-hr
53.26 cfs 34.54 cfs
Runoff Volume 2.292 in 1.656 in

22. Distribution
Differences:
Site specific
Storm specific
Dependent on:
Time of
Concentration

26. Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and
Adaptation
• Observed linear 20th century (1901-2006) precipitation trends for North
America. Data source: University of Delaware, Matsuura and Willmott
2009.

27. Projected percent change in seasonal
precipitation for 2070-2099
(compared to the period 1901-1960)
under an emissions scenario that
assumes continued increases in
emissions (A2). Teal indicates
precipitation increases, and brown,
decreases. Hatched areas indicate
confidence that the projected changes are
large and are consistently wetter or drier.
White areas indicate confidence that the
changes are small. Wet regions tend to
become wetter while dry regions become
drier. In general, the northern part of the
U.S. is projected to see more winter and
spring precipitation, while the Southwest
is projected to experience less
precipitation in the spring. (Figure source:
NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC. Data from
CMIP3; analyzed by Michael Wehner,
LBNL.) (note: to be redone with base
period 1971-2000)

28. Winter 2080 MultiModel

29. Winter 2040 MultiModel

31. Projected changes in duration of dry spells (consecutive number of
days with less than 2 mm of precipitation) across the United States
projected for the high emissions scenario by the end of the 21st
Century Data Source: CMIP-3. century.

33. Table 10C–1 Adjusted approximate mean monthly free water surface evaporation for selected
stations
Station name - —————————————— Percent of annual —————————
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sacramento, CA 2 3 6 8 12 15 16 15 11 7 3 2
Aurora Res Fin, NY 13 15 17 14 10 7
Wooster Exp Sta, OH 9 13 15 15 14 10 7
Source: Adapted from Evaporation Atlas for the Contiguous 48 United States, NOAA Technical Report NWS
33, Table 3-Adjusted mean monthly
Class A pan evaporation for selected stations, 1956-70.

34. WETS Station : DECORAH, 192110
Start yr. - 1961 End yr. - 1990
Temperature: 30 years used out of 30 requested in this analysis
Precipitation: 30 years used out of 30 requested in this analysis
| Temperature | Precipitation
3 yrs in 10 will have
Month | avg | avg | avg | avg less than more than
|daily|daily| |
| max | min | (in.) (in.) (in.)
January | 23.7| 5.3 | 14.5| 0.74 0.37 0.96
February | 29.6| 10.7| 20.1 0.82 0.44 1.07
March | 42.0| 23.6| 32.8| 1.89 1.28 2.42
April | 58.2| 36.3| 47.2| 3.42 2.36 4.45
May |70.8| 47.7| 59.2| 3.82 2.96 4.96
June | 79.7| 56.7| 68.2| 4.20 2.80 5.46
July | 83.7| 61.4| 72.6| 3.99 2.75 5.19
August | 81.5| 59.0| 70.3| 4.03 2.55 5.23
September | 72.7| 50.7| 61.7| 3.93 2.07 5.11
October | 61.0| 39.9| 50.5| 2.27 1.37 2.95
November | 43.8| 27.0| 35.4| 1.68 0.89 2.18
December | 28.3| 12.1| 20.2| 1.21 0.78 1.57
Yearly : Average | 56.3| 35.9| 46.1
Total 32.01 28.58 41.55

35. Precipitation Ithaca NY
Long term record
Annual, 6 months and 8 months
winter precipitation increasing

36. Precipitation Ithaca NY
Prior to 1950
Annual Increasing
6 months and 8 months winter
precipitation little change

37. Precipitation Ithaca NY
1950-1980
Annual increasing
6 months winter decreasing slightly
8 months winter increasing slightly

38. Precipitation Ithaca NY
Recent Period
Annual Precipitation Increasing
Winter Precipitation Increasing

42. Changes Ithaca Structure
– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons
wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding
Slide 42
Months
Storage
Precipitation
Inches
Slope Precipitation
Volume ft3
Storage
difference
Cost
difference
6 Months 14.7 Average 0 8,318
6 Months 19 90% 0 8,816 498 $981
8 Months 21.3 Average 0 12,350
8 Months 28 90% 0 19,019 6,669 $13,138

43. Changes Jefferson Structure
– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons
wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding
Slide 43
Months
Storage
Precipitation
Inches
Slope Precipitation
Volume ft3
Storage
difference
Cost
difference
6 Months 19.6 Average 0 10,944
6 Months 27 90% 0 13,463 2,519 $4,962
8 Months 26.5 Average 0 20,651
8 Months 37 90% 0 27,452 6,801 $13,398

44. Changes Ithaca Earthen Storage
– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons
wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding
Slide 44
Months
Storage
Precipitation
Inches
Slope Precipitation
Volume ft3
Storage
difference
Cost
difference
6 Months 14.7 Average 2.5 19,332
6 Months 19 90% 2.5 20,586 1,254 $351
8 Months 21.3 Average 2.5 29,840
8 Months 28 90% 2.5 42,858 13,018 $3,645

45. Jefferson Earthen Storage
– Assumptions 500 milkers, 100 dry, 1,500 gallons
wash water, 1,200 lbs. sawdust bedding
Slide 45
Months
Storage
Precipitation
Inches
Slope Precipitation
Volume ft3
Storage
difference
Cost
difference
6 Months 19.6 Average 2.5 26,009
6 Months 27 90% 2.5 32,790 6,781 $1,899
8 Months 26.5 Average 2.5 46,962
8 Months 37 90% 2.5 65,782 18,820 $5,270

46. Conclusions
• Climate Changing
• Manure storage in Northeast need to
change
• NRCS should help farms with risk
management
• Storage size and Cost will increase
• Consider Storage Cover Slide 46

47. Slide 47
"The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination
in all of its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national
origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status,
familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political
beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or part of an
individual's income is derived from any public assistance program.
(Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with
disabilities who require alternative means for communication of
program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should
contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and
TDD).“
To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant
Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil
Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington,
DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800)
877-8339 (TDD) or (866) 377-8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800)
845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity
provider and employer.

48. QUESTIONS?
Pete Wright peter.wright@ny.usda.gov
Slide 48