SlideShare a Scribd company logo
b
Work in progress and the state
of affairs*
Matti Heino
http://mattiheino.com
* adapted from a talk in the 2016
Dynamic Systems Modeling expert meeting
b
● A school-based multilevel intervention to increase physical activity and
decrease sitting among youth
● Ongoing since 2012
● RCT phase from 2015 to 2017
● Ca. 16–19 year-old vocational school students
● Waist-worn accelerometers, body composition, surveys
”Let’s Move It”
b
Study protocol @ BMC Public Health
b
The aim, in a nutshell:
To evaluate…
• the effectiveness
• processes/mechanisms of change
• cost-effectiveness
… of a school-based, multi-level intervention, on physical activity
and sedentary behavior
b
Theoretical framework
● Self-determination theory
● Control and self-regulation theories
● Reasoned action approach
● Habit theory
(Hankonen et al. 2016, BMC Public Health)
b
The data (2017)
Final n ≈ 1000
Measurements at four time points:
T1 (baseline)
T2 (mid-intervention)
T3 (2-month follow-up)
T4 (12-month follow-up)
b
T1-T4 measures of the following constructs (related to PA):
• Behavioral predictors according to Self-Determination
Theory
• autonomous and controlled motivation (motivational regulations)
• Behavioral predictors according to Reasoned Action
Approach
• outcome expectations, descriptive and injunctive norms, intention,
self-efficacy/perceived behavioural control
• In addition, behavior change technique (BCT) use, self-
reported PA, injuries/illness
The data (2017)
b
Network Analysis?
- Compare longitudinal, within-individual networks
of those who change and those who don’t?
b
My upcoming PhD project
… On taking control of one’s own
motivation
b
My PhD project (fall 2016-2020)
• Inspecting within-individual motivational
fluctuations and their effect on physical
activity
• Data collection using a mobile app: physical activity,
behaviour change techniques, psychosocial stuff (e.g.
motivation)
b
The very preliminary idea
• First: gather a catalogue of techniques
individuals use to manage their motivation
• Second: see how people use the motivation
management techniques in day-to-day life
• Third: teach employees to manage their exercise
motivation and see if affects occupational health
b
Some open questions
• Extend network approach: N-of-1 networks?
• How to use what we know about dynamical
systems, complexity?
• Potential pitfalls?
b
Andrew Gelman on ”piss-poor omnicausal
social science”:
”[…] toxic combination of open-ended theories, noisy data, and
huge incentives to obtain ‘p less than .05’” (source)
• … My nightmare is ending up as a link in this chain
b
Sir Ronald Fisher (1938):
“To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often
merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can
perhaps say what the experiment died of.”
… so I’m calling out to all the savvy folks with methods
superpowers – you can make the world a better place!
b
Get in touch!
Questions?
Comments?
Ideas?
@heinonmatti
mattiheino.wordpress.com

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Work in progress and the state of affairs

  • 1. b Work in progress and the state of affairs* Matti Heino http://mattiheino.com * adapted from a talk in the 2016 Dynamic Systems Modeling expert meeting
  • 2. b ● A school-based multilevel intervention to increase physical activity and decrease sitting among youth ● Ongoing since 2012 ● RCT phase from 2015 to 2017 ● Ca. 16–19 year-old vocational school students ● Waist-worn accelerometers, body composition, surveys ”Let’s Move It”
  • 3. b Study protocol @ BMC Public Health
  • 4. b The aim, in a nutshell: To evaluate… • the effectiveness • processes/mechanisms of change • cost-effectiveness … of a school-based, multi-level intervention, on physical activity and sedentary behavior
  • 5. b Theoretical framework ● Self-determination theory ● Control and self-regulation theories ● Reasoned action approach ● Habit theory (Hankonen et al. 2016, BMC Public Health)
  • 6. b The data (2017) Final n ≈ 1000 Measurements at four time points: T1 (baseline) T2 (mid-intervention) T3 (2-month follow-up) T4 (12-month follow-up)
  • 7. b T1-T4 measures of the following constructs (related to PA): • Behavioral predictors according to Self-Determination Theory • autonomous and controlled motivation (motivational regulations) • Behavioral predictors according to Reasoned Action Approach • outcome expectations, descriptive and injunctive norms, intention, self-efficacy/perceived behavioural control • In addition, behavior change technique (BCT) use, self- reported PA, injuries/illness The data (2017)
  • 8. b Network Analysis? - Compare longitudinal, within-individual networks of those who change and those who don’t?
  • 9. b My upcoming PhD project … On taking control of one’s own motivation
  • 10. b My PhD project (fall 2016-2020) • Inspecting within-individual motivational fluctuations and their effect on physical activity • Data collection using a mobile app: physical activity, behaviour change techniques, psychosocial stuff (e.g. motivation)
  • 11. b The very preliminary idea • First: gather a catalogue of techniques individuals use to manage their motivation • Second: see how people use the motivation management techniques in day-to-day life • Third: teach employees to manage their exercise motivation and see if affects occupational health
  • 12. b Some open questions • Extend network approach: N-of-1 networks? • How to use what we know about dynamical systems, complexity? • Potential pitfalls?
  • 13. b Andrew Gelman on ”piss-poor omnicausal social science”: ”[…] toxic combination of open-ended theories, noisy data, and huge incentives to obtain ‘p less than .05’” (source) • … My nightmare is ending up as a link in this chain
  • 14. b Sir Ronald Fisher (1938): “To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of.” … so I’m calling out to all the savvy folks with methods superpowers – you can make the world a better place!