SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Crush and Contain
for Safer Reopening
The fight against COVID-19 will be long—
we are still in its early days
Source: BCG analysis.
1
Estimated timeframe for a safe and effective vaccine to be developed, manufactured, and delivered on a wide scale to minimize disease risk.
Economic
activity
Health care
system
capacity
Critical care
patients
Time
We are here
Flatten Fight Future
Re-start:
Mid-May/
late-June 2020
Disease risk
minimized:
Q1 2022 +/-
6 months1
Vaccine:
Late 2020/
Early 2021
Three patterns have emerged in governments’
COVID-19 response—crush and contain is the
most effective
Virus was crushed and contained Flattened but cases resurging Cases still rising or at high levels
Seven-dayrollingaverage
Jan 01 Oct 01Jul 01Apr 01 Jan 01 Oct 01Jul 01Apr 01 Jan 01 Oct 01Jul 01Apr 01
South Korea New Zealand Taiwan Spain France Germany United States Brazil India
Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our World in Data, BCG analysis.
Note: China excluded from crushed and contained graphic due to a much earlier outbreak than South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Many governments missed the
opportunity to crush and contain. They
should prepare now to make sure they
don’t miss that opportunity again.
When governments need to bring the virus under control,
they can crush it with short-term lockdown measures
Source: BCG analysis.
Limit interactions
• Trigger localized general lockdown
Ensure safer interactions
• Develop guidelines by industry
• Enforce mask wearing
Protect borders
• Prohibit traveling in and out
of region
Monitor the virus
• Build virus monitoring system
• Build testing and tracing capacity
and process
Amplify medical response
• Increase hospital capacity, supplies,
and PPE
• Develop system to track demand
and supply needs
Protect the vulnerable
• Make shelter-in-place more
sustainable
• Ensure vulnerable have income
and food security
Limit interactions
• Start opening low-risk activities
with high economic or social value
(e.g., restaurants with outdoor
seating, public transport), then
progressively open riskier activities
Ensure safer interactions
• Roll out activity-based guidelines
(e.g., no tables of >5 in restaurants,
continuous health screening when
entering hotels)
• Enforce mask wearing
• Ensure physical distancing (e.g., six
feet apart)
Protect borders
• Enforce mandatory quarantine
for new entrants (except from
green zones)
• Test and trace travelers
• Track itinerary and movement
of travelers
Monitor the virus
• Conduct and optimize effective
testing strategy (e.g., pooled testing,
individual testing)
• Implement full contact tracing using
test and location data to trace, treat,
and quarantine
Amplify medical response
• Effectively distribute medical
supplies, treatments, and PPE, and
ensure access for the most
vulnerable
Protect the vulnerable
• Distribute masks to vulnerable
• Prioritize testing for vulnerable
• Make shelter-in-place more sustainable
• Ensure vulnerable have income and
food security
• Enforce guidelines in congregate
living facilities
When cases are stable and manageable, governments
can contain the virus with these policies
Source: BCG analysis.
COVID-19 hits two groups of people especially hard
HEALTH VULNERABLE
UP TO
People older than 65 with underlying
health conditions (roughly 30% of
the US population)
Higher hospitalization rate
for those older than 65 with
preconditions versus healthy
adults under 65
EXPOSURE VULNERABLE
People living in dense settings or
unable to work from home, especially
in communities of color
30x Higher infection rate for persons
of color versus white Americans,
which explains nearly all of the
difference in fatality rates
~2-3x
Sources: CDC; BRFSS; COVID Tracking Project; BCG.
1
Governments can protect the vulnerable by
adopting six cost-efficient policies
Reduction in hospitalizations (%)
5
6
4
3
2
1
Ideal1
Effective1
Mandate wearing face coverings in public spaces
Provide high-quality masks to vulnerable people and ensure they are worn
Skew sentinel testing to the most health vulnerable people, those in close
contact with them, and communities of color
Support sheltering in place by providing food, counseling, and social connections
Accommodate vulnerable people who cannot work from home by enabling
employer innovation and supporting shelter-in-place for the most vulnerable
Enforce congregate living best practices and standards
Combined impact of all six policies
Sources: Ycharts Indicators; Gallup; PEW; NPR; BCG analysis.
1
Ideal represents 80% compliance of a given intervention for vulnerable people (50% for broader public), while effective represents 50%
compliance for vulnerable people (33% for broader public); studies suggest current compliance range of 33%-50% for mask wearing.
–47
–15
–27
–12
–10
–3
–3
–89
–40
–48
–25
–19
–10
–9
Policiestoprotect
thevulnerable
Broader
public
Protecting the vulnerable could reduce overall hospitalization
levels and enable widespread reopening
Source: BCG analysis.
1
Assumes that schools and businesses reopen but basic social distancing measures (for example, limiting interactions to less than pre-pandemic levels and banning mass gatherings) remain in place throughout the duration of pandemic; this is a US average.
2
At 50% compliance. Studies suggest that current compliance with mask wearing ranges from 33% to 50%.
Hospitalizations
Reopening
Full reopening
Including mass gatherings
Reopening1
schools and some
businesses; no mass gatherings
Five policies to protect
health-vulnerable2
While reopening schools and some
businesses; no mass gatherings
Five policies to protect vulnerable,
plus general face-covering mandates2
While reopening schools and some
businesses; no mass gatherings
ICU capacity
Reopening requires some
restrictions on general public
and high compliance levels
If governments commit to
this high-return strategy for a
safer reopening, they can contain
the virus without reverting
to lockdowns.

More Related Content

What's hot

COVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis Checklist
COVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis ChecklistCOVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis Checklist
COVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis Checklist
Boston Consulting Group
 
2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game
2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game
2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game
Boston Consulting Group
 
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accenture
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | AccentureRight Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accenture
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accenture
accenture
 
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability IndexBCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
Boston Consulting Group
 
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability IndexBCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
Boston Consulting Group
 
Digital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefits
Digital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefitsDigital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefits
Digital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefits
McKinsey & Company
 
Global Capital Confidence Barometer 21st edition
Global Capital Confidence Barometer 21st editionGlobal Capital Confidence Barometer 21st edition
Global Capital Confidence Barometer 21st edition
EY
 
What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?
What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?
What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?
Boston Consulting Group
 
Global Challengers 2018: Digital Leapfrogs
Global Challengers 2018: Digital LeapfrogsGlobal Challengers 2018: Digital Leapfrogs
Global Challengers 2018: Digital Leapfrogs
Boston Consulting Group
 
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...
PwC
 
COVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
COVID-19 Therapies and VaccinesCOVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
COVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
Denis Cohen-Tannoudji
 
Bain Covid 19 situation report & action agenda
Bain   Covid 19 situation report & action agendaBain   Covid 19 situation report & action agenda
Bain Covid 19 situation report & action agenda
Anne LEHMAN
 
Power transactions and trends Q2 2019
Power transactions and trends Q2 2019Power transactions and trends Q2 2019
Power transactions and trends Q2 2019
EY
 
Federal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | Accenture
Federal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | AccentureFederal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | Accenture
Federal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | Accenture
accenture
 
#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19
#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19
#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19
Bain & Company Brasil
 
EY Germany FinTech Landscape
EY Germany FinTech LandscapeEY Germany FinTech Landscape
EY Germany FinTech Landscape
EY
 
How Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at Home
How Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at HomeHow Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at Home
How Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at Home
Boston Consulting Group
 
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...
Boston Consulting Group
 
Overview of M&A, 2016
Overview of M&A, 2016Overview of M&A, 2016
Overview of M&A, 2016
McKinsey & Company
 
PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015
PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015
PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015
PwC
 

What's hot (20)

COVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis Checklist
COVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis ChecklistCOVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis Checklist
COVID-19 Rapid Response Crisis Checklist
 
2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game
2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game
2018 Local Dynamos: Emerging-Market Companies Up Their Game
 
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accenture
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | AccentureRight Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accenture
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accenture
 
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability IndexBCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
 
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability IndexBCG Telco Sustainability Index
BCG Telco Sustainability Index
 
Digital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefits
Digital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefitsDigital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefits
Digital Europe: Pushing the frontier, capturing the benefits
 
Global Capital Confidence Barometer 21st edition
Global Capital Confidence Barometer 21st editionGlobal Capital Confidence Barometer 21st edition
Global Capital Confidence Barometer 21st edition
 
What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?
What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?
What Does the Recovery of Demand for Urban Mobility Look Like Post-COVID-19?
 
Global Challengers 2018: Digital Leapfrogs
Global Challengers 2018: Digital LeapfrogsGlobal Challengers 2018: Digital Leapfrogs
Global Challengers 2018: Digital Leapfrogs
 
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...
 
COVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
COVID-19 Therapies and VaccinesCOVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
COVID-19 Therapies and Vaccines
 
Bain Covid 19 situation report & action agenda
Bain   Covid 19 situation report & action agendaBain   Covid 19 situation report & action agenda
Bain Covid 19 situation report & action agenda
 
Power transactions and trends Q2 2019
Power transactions and trends Q2 2019Power transactions and trends Q2 2019
Power transactions and trends Q2 2019
 
Federal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | Accenture
Federal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | AccentureFederal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | Accenture
Federal Technology Vision 2021: Full U.S. Federal Survey Findings | Accenture
 
#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19
#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19
#BainWebinar Next Generation Industrial Performance Post COVID-19
 
EY Germany FinTech Landscape
EY Germany FinTech LandscapeEY Germany FinTech Landscape
EY Germany FinTech Landscape
 
How Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at Home
How Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at HomeHow Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at Home
How Companies in Emerging Markets Are Winning at Home
 
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...
Chinese Internet Economy White Paper 2.0 - Decoding the Chinese Internet 2.0:...
 
Overview of M&A, 2016
Overview of M&A, 2016Overview of M&A, 2016
Overview of M&A, 2016
 
PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015
PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015
PwC's Global Technology IPO Review -- Q1 2015
 

Similar to Win The Fight: Crush and Contain for Safer Reopening

One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...
One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...
One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...
Tata Naipospos
 
Elimination and eradication of tetanus
Elimination and eradication of tetanusElimination and eradication of tetanus
Elimination and eradication of tetanus
ahmed sakandary
 
XNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study design
XNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study designXNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study design
XNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study design
ramseyr
 
prevNcontrol.pptx
prevNcontrol.pptxprevNcontrol.pptx
prevNcontrol.pptx
Khem21
 
3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...
3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...
3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...
JSI
 
field trials ppt.pptx
field trials ppt.pptxfield trials ppt.pptx
field trials ppt.pptx
KrishnaveniManubolu
 
HUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSURE
HUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSUREHUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSURE
HUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSURE
JAYA PRAKASH VELUCHURI
 
Com 01
Com 01Com 01
Com 01
Lama K Banna
 
Animal Disease Control
Animal Disease ControlAnimal Disease Control
Animal Disease Control
Perez Eric
 
Prevention Levels to Control Disease
Prevention Levels to Control DiseasePrevention Levels to Control Disease
Prevention Levels to Control Disease
Dr.Shahzad A. Daula
 
lect_2_fox_study_populations.pptx
lect_2_fox_study_populations.pptxlect_2_fox_study_populations.pptx
lect_2_fox_study_populations.pptx
AnandKumar459862
 
Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)
Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)
Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)
Dr. Abhishek Ashok Sharma
 
1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx
1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx
1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx
CharlesMwamba4
 
D.p.h. 01
D.p.h. 01D.p.h. 01
D.p.h. 01
Lama K Banna
 
Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08
Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08
Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08
Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics
 
Vaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderly
Vaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderlyVaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderly
Vaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderly
Marc Evans Abat
 
Modes of intervention_comm_med - abhijith
Modes of intervention_comm_med - abhijithModes of intervention_comm_med - abhijith
Modes of intervention_comm_med - abhijith
°ღ•ÁßℋℐĴℐŤℋ●•٠·˙ .B
 
2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care
2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care
2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care
Sri Lanka College of Sexual Health and HIV Medicine
 
One Health.pptx
One Health.pptxOne Health.pptx
One Health.pptx
SAU Tandojam
 
health maintenance
 health maintenance  health maintenance
health maintenance
Basma Mohamed Abd El Aziz
 

Similar to Win The Fight: Crush and Contain for Safer Reopening (20)

One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...
One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...
One Health: An Indonesian Perspective - DGLAHS-FAO, Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD),...
 
Elimination and eradication of tetanus
Elimination and eradication of tetanusElimination and eradication of tetanus
Elimination and eradication of tetanus
 
XNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study design
XNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study designXNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study design
XNN001 Introductory epidemiological concepts - Study design
 
prevNcontrol.pptx
prevNcontrol.pptxprevNcontrol.pptx
prevNcontrol.pptx
 
3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...
3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...
3 of 4: Reducing Neonatal Mortality - Prevention, Early Detection and Treatme...
 
field trials ppt.pptx
field trials ppt.pptxfield trials ppt.pptx
field trials ppt.pptx
 
HUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSURE
HUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSUREHUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSURE
HUMAN CHALLENGE STUDIES TO ACCELERATE CORONA VIRUS VACCINE LICENSURE
 
Com 01
Com 01Com 01
Com 01
 
Animal Disease Control
Animal Disease ControlAnimal Disease Control
Animal Disease Control
 
Prevention Levels to Control Disease
Prevention Levels to Control DiseasePrevention Levels to Control Disease
Prevention Levels to Control Disease
 
lect_2_fox_study_populations.pptx
lect_2_fox_study_populations.pptxlect_2_fox_study_populations.pptx
lect_2_fox_study_populations.pptx
 
Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)
Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)
Epidemiology of periodontal diseases By Dr. Abhishek Gaur (8741095005)
 
1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx
1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx
1. OUT BREAK INVESTIGATIONS.pptx
 
D.p.h. 01
D.p.h. 01D.p.h. 01
D.p.h. 01
 
Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08
Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08
Bioethical Determinants of Pandemic Vaccine Allocation Strategies 6.3.08
 
Vaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderly
Vaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderlyVaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderly
Vaccination as a health prevention strategy for elderly
 
Modes of intervention_comm_med - abhijith
Modes of intervention_comm_med - abhijithModes of intervention_comm_med - abhijith
Modes of intervention_comm_med - abhijith
 
2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care
2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care
2016 Sessions: Prevention strategies in STI care
 
One Health.pptx
One Health.pptxOne Health.pptx
One Health.pptx
 
health maintenance
 health maintenance  health maintenance
health maintenance
 

More from Boston Consulting Group

Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management
Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management
Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management
Boston Consulting Group
 
Green Venture Opportunities
Green Venture Opportunities Green Venture Opportunities
Green Venture Opportunities
Boston Consulting Group
 
Reinvent M
Reinvent MReinvent M
What’s Chipping Away at Automotive Production
What’s Chipping Away at Automotive ProductionWhat’s Chipping Away at Automotive Production
What’s Chipping Away at Automotive Production
Boston Consulting Group
 
Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19
Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19
Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19
Boston Consulting Group
 
Driving Change in Racial Equity
Driving Change in Racial Equity Driving Change in Racial Equity
Driving Change in Racial Equity
Boston Consulting Group
 
Unlocking the Hidden Value in Securities Services
Unlocking the Hidden Value in Securities ServicesUnlocking the Hidden Value in Securities Services
Unlocking the Hidden Value in Securities Services
Boston Consulting Group
 
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20 Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20
Boston Consulting Group
 
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1
Boston Consulting Group
 
Covid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital Transformation
Covid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital TransformationCovid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital Transformation
Covid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital Transformation
Boston Consulting Group
 
COVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for Nonprofits
COVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for NonprofitsCOVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for Nonprofits
COVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for Nonprofits
Boston Consulting Group
 
COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...
COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...
COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...
Boston Consulting Group
 
Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19
Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19
Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19
Boston Consulting Group
 
COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...
COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...
COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...
Boston Consulting Group
 
How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?
How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?
How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?
Boston Consulting Group
 
What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)
What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)
What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)
Boston Consulting Group
 
Decoding the Human
Decoding the HumanDecoding the Human
Decoding the Human
Boston Consulting Group
 
Retail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative Solutions
Retail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative SolutionsRetail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative Solutions
Retail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative Solutions
Boston Consulting Group
 
How digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compression
How digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compressionHow digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compression
How digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compression
Boston Consulting Group
 

More from Boston Consulting Group (19)

Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management
Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management
Sources of advantage in Regulatory Filing Management
 
Green Venture Opportunities
Green Venture Opportunities Green Venture Opportunities
Green Venture Opportunities
 
Reinvent M
Reinvent MReinvent M
Reinvent M
 
What’s Chipping Away at Automotive Production
What’s Chipping Away at Automotive ProductionWhat’s Chipping Away at Automotive Production
What’s Chipping Away at Automotive Production
 
Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19
Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19
Seismic shifts: Retail banking in the wake of COVID-19
 
Driving Change in Racial Equity
Driving Change in Racial Equity Driving Change in Racial Equity
Driving Change in Racial Equity
 
Unlocking the Hidden Value in Securities Services
Unlocking the Hidden Value in Securities ServicesUnlocking the Hidden Value in Securities Services
Unlocking the Hidden Value in Securities Services
 
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20 Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V2 - April 20
 
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1
Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis V1
 
Covid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital Transformation
Covid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital TransformationCovid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital Transformation
Covid-19 Is a Call for Retail Banks to Accelerate Digital Transformation
 
COVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for Nonprofits
COVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for NonprofitsCOVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for Nonprofits
COVID-19 Rapid Response Checklist for Nonprofits
 
COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...
COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...
COVID-19: Sustaining Liquidity/Funding Management and Treasury Operations in ...
 
Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19
Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19
Adapting Compliance Projects and Operating Models for COVID-19
 
COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...
COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...
COVID-19: Sustaining Business in All Scenarios: A New Lens on Bank Credit Ris...
 
How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?
How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?
How Should Financial Institutions Navigate the COVID-19 Crisis?
 
What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)
What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)
What's Keeping Women out of Data Science? (press deck)
 
Decoding the Human
Decoding the HumanDecoding the Human
Decoding the Human
 
Retail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative Solutions
Retail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative SolutionsRetail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative Solutions
Retail Banking Growth Challenges and Creative Solutions
 
How digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compression
How digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compressionHow digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compression
How digital mortgage solutions can help win the war against margin compression
 

Recently uploaded

Restaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel Hammamet
Restaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel HammametRestaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel Hammamet
Restaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel Hammamet
rihabkorbi24
 
California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024
California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024
California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024
Carpet America Recovery Effort
 
What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.
What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.
What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.
Doug Hall
 
Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...
Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...
Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...
margaretblush
 
TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...
TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...
TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...
kevinkariuki227
 
HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...
HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...
HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...
pranjalgarg474
 
AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...
AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...
AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...
Auxis Consulting & Outsourcing
 
A Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science Practitioners
A Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science PractitionersA Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science Practitioners
A Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science Practitioners
Tim Wilson
 
High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...
High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...
High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...
dimplekumaridk322
 
Path to the next normal collection McKinsey
Path to the next normal collection McKinseyPath to the next normal collection McKinsey
Path to the next normal collection McKinsey
MajIman2
 
United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...
United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...
United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...
Newman George Leech
 
Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........
Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........
Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........
anissageorge9890
 
Business Model Canvas for Successful Business
Business Model Canvas for Successful BusinessBusiness Model Canvas for Successful Business
Business Model Canvas for Successful Business
SuganthiPrakash1
 
A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024
A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024
A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024
Dubiz
 
2024 BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration
2024  BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration2024  BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration
2024 BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration
Denis Gagné
 
YouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdf
YouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdfYouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdf
YouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdf
grizzyhuncho
 
ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」
ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」
ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」
Katsuya Shiratori
 
Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...
Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...
Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...
grouphirani24
 
How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?
How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?
How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?
Texas Flange
 
Chief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 Report
Chief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 ReportChief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 Report
Chief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 Report
Compliance Vision
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Restaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel Hammamet
Restaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel HammametRestaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel Hammamet
Restaurant Chiraz Sindbad Hotel Hammamet
 
California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024
California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024
California Carpet Stewardship Program Q1 2024
 
What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.
What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.
What's your strategy? Getting tactical about being strategic.
 
Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...
Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...
Girls Call Andheri West 9910780858 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 ...
 
TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...
TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...
TEST BANK For Auditing & Assurance Services A Systematic Approach, 12th Editi...
 
HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...
HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...
HiFi Girls Call Surat 000XX00000 Provide Best And Top Girl Service And No1 in...
 
AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...
AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...
AI at Work​ The demystification of AI and real-world stories on how to apply ...
 
A Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science Practitioners
A Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science PractitionersA Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science Practitioners
A Playbook for Solo & Siloed Data Science Practitioners
 
High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...
High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...
High Profile Girls Call Bhubaneswar 🎈🔥000XX00000 🔥💋🎈 Provide Best And Top Gir...
 
Path to the next normal collection McKinsey
Path to the next normal collection McKinseyPath to the next normal collection McKinsey
Path to the next normal collection McKinsey
 
United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...
United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...
United Kingdom's Real Estate Mogul: Newman George Leech's Impact on the Swiss...
 
Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........
Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........
Qatar Airways Kuwait Office.pdf.........
 
Business Model Canvas for Successful Business
Business Model Canvas for Successful BusinessBusiness Model Canvas for Successful Business
Business Model Canvas for Successful Business
 
A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024
A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024
A Complete Guide of Dubai Freelance Visa and Permit in 2024
 
2024 BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration
2024  BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration2024  BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration
2024 BPMN MIWG Capability Demonstration
 
YouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdf
YouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdfYouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdf
YouTube Automation Step-by-step Guide.pdf
 
ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」
ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」
ハワイ大学留学プログラム最終プレゼン「ハワイ大学マノア校におけるシェアリングモビリティの提案」
 
Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...
Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...
Why is Structural Engineering Critical in Disaster Preparedness and Resilienc...
 
How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?
How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?
How Do Flange Adapters Work and Why Are They Essential?
 
Chief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 Report
Chief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 ReportChief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 Report
Chief Compliance Officer Leadership Vision 2024 Report
 

Win The Fight: Crush and Contain for Safer Reopening

  • 1. Crush and Contain for Safer Reopening
  • 2. The fight against COVID-19 will be long— we are still in its early days Source: BCG analysis. 1 Estimated timeframe for a safe and effective vaccine to be developed, manufactured, and delivered on a wide scale to minimize disease risk. Economic activity Health care system capacity Critical care patients Time We are here Flatten Fight Future Re-start: Mid-May/ late-June 2020 Disease risk minimized: Q1 2022 +/- 6 months1 Vaccine: Late 2020/ Early 2021
  • 3. Three patterns have emerged in governments’ COVID-19 response—crush and contain is the most effective Virus was crushed and contained Flattened but cases resurging Cases still rising or at high levels Seven-dayrollingaverage Jan 01 Oct 01Jul 01Apr 01 Jan 01 Oct 01Jul 01Apr 01 Jan 01 Oct 01Jul 01Apr 01 South Korea New Zealand Taiwan Spain France Germany United States Brazil India Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Our World in Data, BCG analysis. Note: China excluded from crushed and contained graphic due to a much earlier outbreak than South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
  • 4. Many governments missed the opportunity to crush and contain. They should prepare now to make sure they don’t miss that opportunity again.
  • 5. When governments need to bring the virus under control, they can crush it with short-term lockdown measures Source: BCG analysis. Limit interactions • Trigger localized general lockdown Ensure safer interactions • Develop guidelines by industry • Enforce mask wearing Protect borders • Prohibit traveling in and out of region Monitor the virus • Build virus monitoring system • Build testing and tracing capacity and process Amplify medical response • Increase hospital capacity, supplies, and PPE • Develop system to track demand and supply needs Protect the vulnerable • Make shelter-in-place more sustainable • Ensure vulnerable have income and food security
  • 6. Limit interactions • Start opening low-risk activities with high economic or social value (e.g., restaurants with outdoor seating, public transport), then progressively open riskier activities Ensure safer interactions • Roll out activity-based guidelines (e.g., no tables of >5 in restaurants, continuous health screening when entering hotels) • Enforce mask wearing • Ensure physical distancing (e.g., six feet apart) Protect borders • Enforce mandatory quarantine for new entrants (except from green zones) • Test and trace travelers • Track itinerary and movement of travelers Monitor the virus • Conduct and optimize effective testing strategy (e.g., pooled testing, individual testing) • Implement full contact tracing using test and location data to trace, treat, and quarantine Amplify medical response • Effectively distribute medical supplies, treatments, and PPE, and ensure access for the most vulnerable Protect the vulnerable • Distribute masks to vulnerable • Prioritize testing for vulnerable • Make shelter-in-place more sustainable • Ensure vulnerable have income and food security • Enforce guidelines in congregate living facilities When cases are stable and manageable, governments can contain the virus with these policies Source: BCG analysis.
  • 7. COVID-19 hits two groups of people especially hard HEALTH VULNERABLE UP TO People older than 65 with underlying health conditions (roughly 30% of the US population) Higher hospitalization rate for those older than 65 with preconditions versus healthy adults under 65 EXPOSURE VULNERABLE People living in dense settings or unable to work from home, especially in communities of color 30x Higher infection rate for persons of color versus white Americans, which explains nearly all of the difference in fatality rates ~2-3x Sources: CDC; BRFSS; COVID Tracking Project; BCG.
  • 8. 1 Governments can protect the vulnerable by adopting six cost-efficient policies Reduction in hospitalizations (%) 5 6 4 3 2 1 Ideal1 Effective1 Mandate wearing face coverings in public spaces Provide high-quality masks to vulnerable people and ensure they are worn Skew sentinel testing to the most health vulnerable people, those in close contact with them, and communities of color Support sheltering in place by providing food, counseling, and social connections Accommodate vulnerable people who cannot work from home by enabling employer innovation and supporting shelter-in-place for the most vulnerable Enforce congregate living best practices and standards Combined impact of all six policies Sources: Ycharts Indicators; Gallup; PEW; NPR; BCG analysis. 1 Ideal represents 80% compliance of a given intervention for vulnerable people (50% for broader public), while effective represents 50% compliance for vulnerable people (33% for broader public); studies suggest current compliance range of 33%-50% for mask wearing. –47 –15 –27 –12 –10 –3 –3 –89 –40 –48 –25 –19 –10 –9 Policiestoprotect thevulnerable Broader public
  • 9. Protecting the vulnerable could reduce overall hospitalization levels and enable widespread reopening Source: BCG analysis. 1 Assumes that schools and businesses reopen but basic social distancing measures (for example, limiting interactions to less than pre-pandemic levels and banning mass gatherings) remain in place throughout the duration of pandemic; this is a US average. 2 At 50% compliance. Studies suggest that current compliance with mask wearing ranges from 33% to 50%. Hospitalizations Reopening Full reopening Including mass gatherings Reopening1 schools and some businesses; no mass gatherings Five policies to protect health-vulnerable2 While reopening schools and some businesses; no mass gatherings Five policies to protect vulnerable, plus general face-covering mandates2 While reopening schools and some businesses; no mass gatherings ICU capacity Reopening requires some restrictions on general public and high compliance levels
  • 10. If governments commit to this high-return strategy for a safer reopening, they can contain the virus without reverting to lockdowns.