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MARCH 2020
2019 Growth Leaders
US CPG Growth Leaders:
Who they are and why
they win
2
Executive Summary
Growth in the US CPG industry accelerated slightly in 2019, reaching 2.2% in measured channels, vs. 2.0% in 2018
Pricing/mix drove growth (+2.5% YoY) for third straight year in measured channels; volume declined (0.3%) for first time in seven years…
• Growth yet again propelled by small CPGs (<$1B revenue) & Private Label, taking $19B in value from medium/large players since 2014
– However, PL growth and share gain both decelerated in 2019 (3.9% growth vs. 5.4% in 2018)
• Mid-sized & large companies grew at a slower rate, but accelerated slightly (1% YoY growth vs. 0.8% in 2018)
…with continued movement towards unmeasured channels, including eCommerce, store pickup, mom and pops, and Club
Growth Leaders index highlights winning small, medium, and large companies leading their peers in share and $ / volume growth
9 of top 10 large Growth Leaders have previously been on the list – while small & medium sized leaderboards saw new top entrants
• Large ($5.5B+): Constellation Brands topped list for third year in a row, with Modelo and Corona growing ~$500M
• Medium ($1B-5.5B): Mark Anthony Brands, new to the list, ranked 3rd, driven by White Claw Hard Seltzer (+300% YoY)
• Small (<$1B): E-cigarette company NJOY, also new to the list, was fastest growing small company declining tobacco category
Given low growth environment, top 10 large Growth Leaders collectively saw volume declines for first time (-0.6% YoY growth contribution)
• However, large Growth Leaders outperformed other large peers, which declined 2.8% in volume growth contribution YoY
Growth Leaders have consistently driven performance using four levers: Innovation, Pricing, eCommerce & addressing consumer trends
• Innovation: Supplementing acquisition with core innovation across both acquired & owned brands (e.g., Tyson Hillshire snacking)
• Pricing: Increasing price surgically by sub-category to counter higher COGS and lower sales volumes (e.g., P&G in paper towels)
• eCommerce: Driving increased eComm penetration by deploying consistent approach to win on digital shelf (including click & collect)
• Consumer trends: Tapping in to evolving trends, e.g., protein on-the-go, premium and natural self care, Hispanic, etc
Small, medium & large companies that proactively address these trends will be better positioned to capture growth in years to come
3
2014-
2018
CAGR
2018 %
Chg.
versus YA
2019 %
Chg.
versus YA
Private
Label 3.2% 5.4% 3.9%
Extra
Small 3.3% 3.0% 3.9%
Small 3.0% 3.0% 2.7%
Mid-Size 2.1% 1.5% 3.0%
Large 1.1% 0.8% 1.0%
Private Label (PL) and extra small (<$100M)
companies continue to drive growth
48.7% 47.1% 46.6%
16.0% 15.9% 16.0%
11.5% 12.1% 12.1%
9.1% 9.5% 9.7%
14.7% 15.3% 15.6%
20192014
$757B
2018
$836B$818B
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B mid-size = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C).
IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
+0.5
+0.5
-0.1
-1.5
+0.2
+0.1
+0.1
-0.6
+0.6 +0.3
$19B in industry
sales have shifted
from large and mid-
sized to private
label since 2014…
… however, PL
decelerating vs.
2018 growth, while
mid size / large
accelerating
% Value Share by Manufacturer Size
4
0.1%
1.4%
2.9%
2012
2.3%
1.9%
0.8%
2013
2.0%
1.6%
0.2%
3.0%
0.1%
2014
0.7%2.4%
0.1%
0.6%
2015 2016
1.4%
0.0%
2.5%
2017 2018
2.5%
3.0%
-0.3%
2019
1.7%
1.5%
2.2%
2019 IRI U.S. CPG: Price/Mix carrying
growth despite volume declines
1. eCommerce not included in MULOC – select click & collect in coverage including Walmart, Kroger, and Target.
Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.
MULOC includes Food, Drug, Mass, WM, Dollar, Club xCostco, and DeCA
Price/mix accelerating and
continuing to drive growth
Year-on-year volume
decline
Continued growth in e-
commerce, including store
pick-up, delivery and
shipment1
Observations
Channel growth
Price/mix
Volume
Change $ sales vs. prior year (%)
5
2019 Growth Leaders
Which CPG companies are
winning in the US and why?
Eighth annual report
First to compare public and private
CPG company performance
430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100M
sales in measured channels1
Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales
Top 15 midsize: $1.0—$5.5B sales
Top 15 small: $100M—$1B sales
Three distinct sets of top CPG
winning companies:
Disaggregation of the companies’
underlying performance
1. Multi-outlet and convenience (MULOC) retailers are defined as food, drug,
mass, Walmart, club (excluding Costco), dollar, military, and convenience
6Source: IRI and BCG analysis
DisaggregationThree Growth metrics
Dollar sales % change
Growth contribution due to distribution versus
productivity
Volume sales % change
Growth due to volume versus pricing
Price increases analyzed by true price versus mix shift
Dollar share point
change
Percent portfolio gaining, holding and losing share
Category dynamics (e.g., category trends, portfolio
concentration)
1
2
3
We use a composite growth index to understand who is winning
7
2019 CPG Growth Leaders
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B
Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
6 66
7 77
8 88
9 99
10 1010
11 1 11 11
22 2 12 12
33 3 13 13
44 4 14 14
55 5 15 15
Large Companies
Double click on next page
Mid-Size Companies Small Companies
New to list versus 2018 New to list versus 2012-182018 Growth Leader
*
Fairlife acquisition by
Coca-Cola completed in
Jan 2020
8
#1 growth
category Brand 1 ($M) Brand 2 ($M) Brand 3 ($M)
Top 3 Sales
Combined Contribution %
Top 3 Growth
Combined Contribution %
Beer +$380 +$118 +$22 71% 108%
Skincare +$90 +$86 +$51 42% 64%
Breakfast-frozen &
meat
+$166 +$108 +$24 52% 127%
Pet Food & Treats +$335 +37 +$29 13% 117%
OTC medication +$125 +$118 +$100 22% 30%
Chocolate Candy +$176 +$34 +$30 30% 110%
Cookies +$92 +$63 +$47 40% 128%
Gum +$97 +$65 +$50 29% 56%
Salty Snacks +$148 +$83 +$33 35% 178%
Cream/Creamers +$48 +$30 +$27 31% 139%
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
Note: 2019 year-over-year sales growth in US$
1. Coffee creamer contributed ~70% of growth.
Large Growth Leaders: Brands that drove sales growth
Double
click on
next pg
Indicates top 3
brands growth
exceeded
overall company
sales growth
1
9
• Model Especial contributed ~90% of Modelo brand
growth (+$330M in sales and +31M in volume)
with more focused strategy
Constellation Brands is #1 large Growth Leader for 3rd consecutive
year, driven by Mexican beer - primarily Modelo
 Expanded key distribution channels: on-
premise and mom & pop store presence1
 Targeted specific geographies and MSAs—
became #1 beer in Southern California
 Focused on advantaged price point,
benefiting from shift to premium products
 Pursued core Hispanic consumer e.g.,
Brian Ortega UFC commercial
1. Unmeasured IRI channels
Source: Industry Week, BCG analysis; Note: Constellation was previously on mid-size Growth Leader company list
• New products drove combined ~$100M sales
growth for Corona brand, including Premier,
Familiar and Refresca
 Successful product innovations extended
portfolio beyond Corona Extra
 Corona Premier and Refresca enabled brand
to defend against impact of hard seltzers
 Built innovative marketing platform for
Premier based on golf and the US Open
sponsorship
 Will launch own seltzer product in Spring
2020
10
eCommerce as a
growth engine
Focused on
emerging trends
Surgical pricing
across portfolio
Acquisitions
supplemented by
innovation
1 2 3 4
2019's large Growth Leaders have driven sustained growth since
2014, leveraging several common drivers
2014-2019
Revenue CAGR
Growth for Large
Companies
Top 10
Growth
Leaders
Others
1.7%
0.5%
3+x
Key growth drivers – deep dives on coming pages
11
Acquisitions an important driver of growth for several large leaders
Over last 5 years, mix of acquisitions and portfolio shaping (incl. innovation) have driven growth
2019 Growth $M vs. YA
(Acquired in last 5 years vs. Legacy)
Acquisition in last
5 years as %
of portfolio
Acquisition in last 5
years % of total
growth Leading acquisitions from last 5 eyars
3% 1%
9% 19%
53% 85%
8% 100%
0% 1%
7% 15%
2% 12%
5% -2%
3% 7%
54% >100%
Note: Based on acquisitions made in last five years (since 2014)
Source: IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
3
10
261
51
19
287
1 342
1,133 15
184 33
75
358-7
138
-14 89
480
323
337
343
1,148
217
157
148
63
477
138
351
Acquired in last 5 years Legacy Declining Acqusition
1 Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
12
Growth Leaders continued to drive innovation with acquired and
owned brands
Acquired growth: Driving new category
innovation from acquired brands
Organic growth: Growing through
innovation with established brands
Note: IRI sales data for first 52 weeks of 2019 and 2018
Source: IRI New Product Pacesetters (2019)
Hillshire Snacking was introduced post-
Tyson acquisition, marketed as a
“perfectly portioned protein snack for an
on-the-go experience”, capturing
momentum from protein trend
Activia Probiotics Dailies delivered
occasion-focused innovation through a
smaller, on-the-go format (3.1 fluid oz),
promoting the ease of working
probiotics into a healthy and active
routine
+$33M
+$17M
'18-19 YoY Product Sales
Danone Baileys Coffee Cream was
launched after Danone’s acquisition of
Whitewave and International Delight
leveraging the expertise acquired via
acquisition to build a new licensee-based
expansion in the coffee creamer category+$22.5M
The Blend, a pattie with beef and plant-
based protein was introduced as part of
Tyson's new "Raised & Rooted" brand to
capitalize on the growth of plant-based
protein while leveraging Tyson's historic
strength in animal protein
1 Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
13Source: BCG and IRI Consulting Analysis, Merger Market segments Consumer Database
Small Growth Leaders Acquired Since 2012
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year of
Acquisition
Acquired Investment/JV
Acceleration in acquisition and investment in small Growth Leaders
1 Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
14
Top 10 large Growth Leaders decreased in volume overall (vs. prior
years where volume increased)
Large Companies
Volume and Price Contribution
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B
Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
2 Surgical pricing across portfolio
5.4
3.3
2.3
-4.6
-0.6
-0.2
-2.1
-0.6
-0.7
1.9
3.7
0.5
8.5
3.1
2.2
5.1
2.4
2.0
2.5
0.8
2.1
4.5
7.3
3.4
2.7
3.9
3.0
1.7
1.3
Volume % Chg vs. YA Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA
Double click on next pg
Top 10 Large Growth Leaders
Only top 4 increased volume
-2.8
4.0
2.9All Others
Top 10 3.3
0.1
-0.6
Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA
Volume % Chg vs. YA
2.9%
Top 4
vol.
growth
-2.5%
6-10
vol.
decline
15
Top categories by sales growth and
corresponding ASP increase1 Examples of ASP Changes at SKU Level
P&G executed
surgical pricing increases
across portfolio to drive value
• Driven by consumer insight
and competitive landscape
• ASP increase differed by
category; 38 of 56
categories saw an ASP
increase relative to prior
year
1. Same SKUs with volume above 10k both 2019 and 2018. Excludes new and discontinued SKUs 2. Sales growth for Bounty
Select a Size 12-roll SKU exceeded overall Bounty brand growth due to partial cannibalization for smaller pack sizes.
Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.
Surgical pricing across portfolio
4.2%
4.1%
7.1%
4.6%
Baby Wipes
Toilet Tissue
Paper Towels
0.5%
0.5%
Diapers
Laundry Care 2.8%
Deodorant
Air Fresheners
Cold/Allergy/Sinus Liquids
0.6%
2.3%Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets
3.0%Gastrointestinal - Liquid
2018
ASP
$18.02
2019
ASP
$18.84
YoY Sales
Growth
+$128M2
SKU
12 roll
$13.41 $13.55 +$36M
30 oz
$804 M
$614 M
$544 M
$193 M
$58 M
$29 M
$28 M
$26 M
$24 M
$21 M
Sales Growth ASP Growth
"We’re looking, as we innovate, to
be able to modestly [increase] price
and still build value
-Jon Moeller, Vice Chairman, COO, CFO
Q4 Earnings call
2
16
3 eCommerce as a growth engine
eCommerce
growing in
significance –
estimated to be
~10% of CPG
portfolio by 2022
20222019
~4-5%
~10%
Digital shelf Growth Leader winners
deploy a consistent approach
Investing in a digital commerce organization
(CoE or dedicated digital teams)
4
Leveraging investment in trade marketing in an
eCommerce setting (e.g., banner ads on amazon)
3
Restructuring channel operations and
merchandising to ensure right SKUs are available
1
2 Optimizing digital shelf / marketing for pre-
purchased in store pick ups at key retailers
5 Having a dedicated brand store optimized for
user experience (DTC considerations)
eComm penetration as % of CPG sales
GL DTC Store Examples
Note: eCommerce includes all forms of online shopping (including click & collect)
Source: IRI Ecommerce Trends
17Source: IRI Data for MULOC (multi-outlet and convenience), IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
Winning manufacturers and brands are tapping into evolving
consumer trends
Protein On-the-Go
Quicker and easier options to meet daily
protein needs
Better-for-You Snacking
Healthier versions of traditional snacks
Simple & Transparent
Natural, organic, minimal ingredients
Hispanic focused
Geared toward growing Hispanic population
emphasizing heritage
Multi-Functional Beverages
Beverages offering superior hydration or
energy through simpler and cleaner
ingredients
Premium/Natural Self Care
Willingness to pay a premium to take care of
body and/or household
Deep dive in subsequent pages
New in 2019
4 Focused against consumer trends
18
Multi-functional beverages are outpacing traditional sugary
alternatives
Growth leader examples: Multi-functional beverages
provide consumers with many nutritional benefits
Energy
Hard Seltzer
Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
Double click follows
11%
6%
6%
17%
11%
6%
2%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
Refrigerated Teas
232%Hard Seltzer
Sports Drinks
Refrigerated Coffee
Seltzer/Sparkling/Mineral
Energy Drinks
Iced Coffee
Regular Soft Drinks
Rfg Juices/Drinks
Drink Mixes
Canned And Bottled Tea
Bottled Juices
2019 YOY growth (%)
Hard Seltzer
Energy
Sugary Alternatives
4 Focused against consumer trends
Hydration
Hydration
19
2014 201920182015 2016
$1,138
$2
2017
$1 $7 $32
$308
Bang energy growth trajectory
2014-2019 retail sales, $M
Bang's path to growth had several key elements
• Identified and solved consumer friction point for energy drinks with
sports and performance benefits
• Ritualized usage on back of new need created (e.g. drink a Bang
Energy Drink before workouts)
• Targeted distribution (e.g. gyms) to reach intended audience, coupled
with effective digital marketing (e.g., Instagram / influencers)
• Disrupted "better-for-me" with primarily sugar-free formulas
Source: IRI MULOC; desk research; industry publications; BCG analysis
Year 5
Bang Energy
3x growth now
exceeding $1B by
addressing unmet need
at intersection of
energy / sports
4 Focused against consumer trends
20
White Claw
Convenient,
personalized, and
better for you, driving
300%+ YoY growth
Source: IRI MULOC; BCG and IRI Consulting analysis
Multifunctional convenience
Easily transportable product (slim, 12 oz. can) with advertising
campaigns that highlight consumption in a variety of occasions
Personalized flavor
Flavored with clean and simple fruit based flavors, available in variety
packs to appeal to varied tastes and occasions
Better-for-you
Won drinkers from other alcohol categories with light, healthier
alternative (100 calories only relative to beer); significant growth also
coming from wine & spirits drinkers
57
20172016 2018 2019
10
194
834
+449%
+241%
+330%
Distribution1
Velocity2
35
$31
45
$113
60
$277
76
$804
1 – Max ACV Wtd Distribution, 2 – Dollars per $MM ACV
4 Focused against consumer trends
White Claw growth trajectory
2014-2019 retail sales, $M
21
Protein on-the-go: Ready-to-eat and convenient offerings driving
market growth
6%
5%
5%
7%
2%
Nutritional Health Bars
Frozen Breakfast Entrees
Dried Meat Snacks
Refrigerated Meat / Cheese / Snack
Frozen Breakfast Handheld
2019 YOY growth (%)
Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
Growth leader examples:
4 Focused against consumer trends
Exemplar set of growth driving brands by sub-category
Snacking
Breakfast
Old
trapper
Growth Leader Brand
YoY Growth %
Hillshire
snacking
One
Brands
Jimmy Dean
Delights
Jimmy Dean
Delights
+24%
+25%
+57%
+25%
+27%
Jimmy Dean +7%
Jimmy Dean +4%
Sub-category
growth
22
Premium on-the-go
Protein rich breakfast
experience driving 8%
YoY growth
Growth trajectory (2014-2019)
Targeted Marketing
Targeting a younger
audience more flexible
in their eating patterns
with a "breakfast all
day" campaign
Innovative Product
Product development
fueled by "consumer
pursuit of heartier
breakfast solutions" that
can be taken on the go
Biscuit roll-ups:
Eggs, meat, and
cheese in "roll-up"
Morning combos:
pancakes and
muffins in on-
the-go bites
868 948
152Jimmy Dean Delights
2016
166
1,023
2017
174
2018
207
1,284
1,076
2019
Jimmy Dean
1,020 1,114 1,197
+8%
$M Retail Sales
4 Focused against consumer trends
11.0%
7.4%
$ CAGR
Better For You
Increased breakfast
offerings in the "better
for you" segment while
still maintaining high
protein
23
Summary:
Key
takeaways
2.2% growth for CPGs in 2019 (slight acceleration vs.
2018) driven by
• Price and mix: Volume declined for the first year (-
0.3% growth) even among large growth leaders
• Smaller companies (<$1B) and Private Label: These
players are growing at 3-4% and have taken $19B in
sales from larger and midsized companies since '14
Four drivers of Growth Leaders success
• Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
• Surgical pricing across portfolio
• eCommerce as a growth engine
• Focused against emerging trends
1
2
3
4
Please reach out to discuss how these opportunities may apply
24
Reach out for more information
Peri Edelstein Aman Gupta Jeremy Kuriloff Dr. Krishnakumar
(KK) Davey
Managing Director
and Partner, BCG
Managing Director
and Partner, BCG
Principal, BCG President, Strategic
Analytics, IRI
Kuriloff.Jeremy@bcg.comGupta.Aman@bcg.comEdelstein.Peri@bcg.com Krishnakumar.Davey@iriworldwide.com
25
Appendix
26
Large winning companies switch positions, but several players are
frequently in the top 10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Large
2019
*Constellation Brands appears in mid-sized players prior to 2017
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B
Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
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Large Growth Leaders – Historical Positioning
#of
times
on list
6*
6
3
2
5
6
4
6
1
3
27
Spectrum
Many Mid-Sized Players also Consistently in the Top
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mid-Sized
2019
Mid-sized Growth Leaders – Historical Positioning
1
3*
1
1
2
5
6
1
4
4
2
2
2
1
1
#of
times
on list
*Juul appears in small-sized players for 2017
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B
Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
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Few Small Companies Have Consistently Led
Small Growth Leaders – Historical Positioning
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Small
2019
Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B
Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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1 Kind
Kind
All Market All Market
Kind Kiss Kiss
All Market
Roll Kiss
Completely
Fresh Foods
Icelandic Milk
& Skyr Corp.
Kiss
2
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#of
times
on list
0
29
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2019 CPG Growth Leaders Report

  • 1. MARCH 2020 2019 Growth Leaders US CPG Growth Leaders: Who they are and why they win
  • 2. 2 Executive Summary Growth in the US CPG industry accelerated slightly in 2019, reaching 2.2% in measured channels, vs. 2.0% in 2018 Pricing/mix drove growth (+2.5% YoY) for third straight year in measured channels; volume declined (0.3%) for first time in seven years… • Growth yet again propelled by small CPGs (<$1B revenue) & Private Label, taking $19B in value from medium/large players since 2014 – However, PL growth and share gain both decelerated in 2019 (3.9% growth vs. 5.4% in 2018) • Mid-sized & large companies grew at a slower rate, but accelerated slightly (1% YoY growth vs. 0.8% in 2018) …with continued movement towards unmeasured channels, including eCommerce, store pickup, mom and pops, and Club Growth Leaders index highlights winning small, medium, and large companies leading their peers in share and $ / volume growth 9 of top 10 large Growth Leaders have previously been on the list – while small & medium sized leaderboards saw new top entrants • Large ($5.5B+): Constellation Brands topped list for third year in a row, with Modelo and Corona growing ~$500M • Medium ($1B-5.5B): Mark Anthony Brands, new to the list, ranked 3rd, driven by White Claw Hard Seltzer (+300% YoY) • Small (<$1B): E-cigarette company NJOY, also new to the list, was fastest growing small company declining tobacco category Given low growth environment, top 10 large Growth Leaders collectively saw volume declines for first time (-0.6% YoY growth contribution) • However, large Growth Leaders outperformed other large peers, which declined 2.8% in volume growth contribution YoY Growth Leaders have consistently driven performance using four levers: Innovation, Pricing, eCommerce & addressing consumer trends • Innovation: Supplementing acquisition with core innovation across both acquired & owned brands (e.g., Tyson Hillshire snacking) • Pricing: Increasing price surgically by sub-category to counter higher COGS and lower sales volumes (e.g., P&G in paper towels) • eCommerce: Driving increased eComm penetration by deploying consistent approach to win on digital shelf (including click & collect) • Consumer trends: Tapping in to evolving trends, e.g., protein on-the-go, premium and natural self care, Hispanic, etc Small, medium & large companies that proactively address these trends will be better positioned to capture growth in years to come
  • 3. 3 2014- 2018 CAGR 2018 % Chg. versus YA 2019 % Chg. versus YA Private Label 3.2% 5.4% 3.9% Extra Small 3.3% 3.0% 3.9% Small 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% Mid-Size 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% Large 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% Private Label (PL) and extra small (<$100M) companies continue to drive growth 48.7% 47.1% 46.6% 16.0% 15.9% 16.0% 11.5% 12.1% 12.1% 9.1% 9.5% 9.7% 14.7% 15.3% 15.6% 20192014 $757B 2018 $836B$818B Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B mid-size = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis. +0.5 +0.5 -0.1 -1.5 +0.2 +0.1 +0.1 -0.6 +0.6 +0.3 $19B in industry sales have shifted from large and mid- sized to private label since 2014… … however, PL decelerating vs. 2018 growth, while mid size / large accelerating % Value Share by Manufacturer Size
  • 4. 4 0.1% 1.4% 2.9% 2012 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 2013 2.0% 1.6% 0.2% 3.0% 0.1% 2014 0.7%2.4% 0.1% 0.6% 2015 2016 1.4% 0.0% 2.5% 2017 2018 2.5% 3.0% -0.3% 2019 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% 2019 IRI U.S. CPG: Price/Mix carrying growth despite volume declines 1. eCommerce not included in MULOC – select click & collect in coverage including Walmart, Kroger, and Target. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis. MULOC includes Food, Drug, Mass, WM, Dollar, Club xCostco, and DeCA Price/mix accelerating and continuing to drive growth Year-on-year volume decline Continued growth in e- commerce, including store pick-up, delivery and shipment1 Observations Channel growth Price/mix Volume Change $ sales vs. prior year (%)
  • 5. 5 2019 Growth Leaders Which CPG companies are winning in the US and why? Eighth annual report First to compare public and private CPG company performance 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100M sales in measured channels1 Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales Top 15 midsize: $1.0—$5.5B sales Top 15 small: $100M—$1B sales Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: Disaggregation of the companies’ underlying performance 1. Multi-outlet and convenience (MULOC) retailers are defined as food, drug, mass, Walmart, club (excluding Costco), dollar, military, and convenience
  • 6. 6Source: IRI and BCG analysis DisaggregationThree Growth metrics Dollar sales % change Growth contribution due to distribution versus productivity Volume sales % change Growth due to volume versus pricing Price increases analyzed by true price versus mix shift Dollar share point change Percent portfolio gaining, holding and losing share Category dynamics (e.g., category trends, portfolio concentration) 1 2 3 We use a composite growth index to understand who is winning
  • 7. 7 2019 CPG Growth Leaders Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting and BCG analysis 6 66 7 77 8 88 9 99 10 1010 11 1 11 11 22 2 12 12 33 3 13 13 44 4 14 14 55 5 15 15 Large Companies Double click on next page Mid-Size Companies Small Companies New to list versus 2018 New to list versus 2012-182018 Growth Leader * Fairlife acquisition by Coca-Cola completed in Jan 2020
  • 8. 8 #1 growth category Brand 1 ($M) Brand 2 ($M) Brand 3 ($M) Top 3 Sales Combined Contribution % Top 3 Growth Combined Contribution % Beer +$380 +$118 +$22 71% 108% Skincare +$90 +$86 +$51 42% 64% Breakfast-frozen & meat +$166 +$108 +$24 52% 127% Pet Food & Treats +$335 +37 +$29 13% 117% OTC medication +$125 +$118 +$100 22% 30% Chocolate Candy +$176 +$34 +$30 30% 110% Cookies +$92 +$63 +$47 40% 128% Gum +$97 +$65 +$50 29% 56% Salty Snacks +$148 +$83 +$33 35% 178% Cream/Creamers +$48 +$30 +$27 31% 139% 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 Note: 2019 year-over-year sales growth in US$ 1. Coffee creamer contributed ~70% of growth. Large Growth Leaders: Brands that drove sales growth Double click on next pg Indicates top 3 brands growth exceeded overall company sales growth 1
  • 9. 9 • Model Especial contributed ~90% of Modelo brand growth (+$330M in sales and +31M in volume) with more focused strategy Constellation Brands is #1 large Growth Leader for 3rd consecutive year, driven by Mexican beer - primarily Modelo  Expanded key distribution channels: on- premise and mom & pop store presence1  Targeted specific geographies and MSAs— became #1 beer in Southern California  Focused on advantaged price point, benefiting from shift to premium products  Pursued core Hispanic consumer e.g., Brian Ortega UFC commercial 1. Unmeasured IRI channels Source: Industry Week, BCG analysis; Note: Constellation was previously on mid-size Growth Leader company list • New products drove combined ~$100M sales growth for Corona brand, including Premier, Familiar and Refresca  Successful product innovations extended portfolio beyond Corona Extra  Corona Premier and Refresca enabled brand to defend against impact of hard seltzers  Built innovative marketing platform for Premier based on golf and the US Open sponsorship  Will launch own seltzer product in Spring 2020
  • 10. 10 eCommerce as a growth engine Focused on emerging trends Surgical pricing across portfolio Acquisitions supplemented by innovation 1 2 3 4 2019's large Growth Leaders have driven sustained growth since 2014, leveraging several common drivers 2014-2019 Revenue CAGR Growth for Large Companies Top 10 Growth Leaders Others 1.7% 0.5% 3+x Key growth drivers – deep dives on coming pages
  • 11. 11 Acquisitions an important driver of growth for several large leaders Over last 5 years, mix of acquisitions and portfolio shaping (incl. innovation) have driven growth 2019 Growth $M vs. YA (Acquired in last 5 years vs. Legacy) Acquisition in last 5 years as % of portfolio Acquisition in last 5 years % of total growth Leading acquisitions from last 5 eyars 3% 1% 9% 19% 53% 85% 8% 100% 0% 1% 7% 15% 2% 12% 5% -2% 3% 7% 54% >100% Note: Based on acquisitions made in last five years (since 2014) Source: IRI Consulting and BCG analysis 3 10 261 51 19 287 1 342 1,133 15 184 33 75 358-7 138 -14 89 480 323 337 343 1,148 217 157 148 63 477 138 351 Acquired in last 5 years Legacy Declining Acqusition 1 Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
  • 12. 12 Growth Leaders continued to drive innovation with acquired and owned brands Acquired growth: Driving new category innovation from acquired brands Organic growth: Growing through innovation with established brands Note: IRI sales data for first 52 weeks of 2019 and 2018 Source: IRI New Product Pacesetters (2019) Hillshire Snacking was introduced post- Tyson acquisition, marketed as a “perfectly portioned protein snack for an on-the-go experience”, capturing momentum from protein trend Activia Probiotics Dailies delivered occasion-focused innovation through a smaller, on-the-go format (3.1 fluid oz), promoting the ease of working probiotics into a healthy and active routine +$33M +$17M '18-19 YoY Product Sales Danone Baileys Coffee Cream was launched after Danone’s acquisition of Whitewave and International Delight leveraging the expertise acquired via acquisition to build a new licensee-based expansion in the coffee creamer category+$22.5M The Blend, a pattie with beef and plant- based protein was introduced as part of Tyson's new "Raised & Rooted" brand to capitalize on the growth of plant-based protein while leveraging Tyson's historic strength in animal protein 1 Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
  • 13. 13Source: BCG and IRI Consulting Analysis, Merger Market segments Consumer Database Small Growth Leaders Acquired Since 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year of Acquisition Acquired Investment/JV Acceleration in acquisition and investment in small Growth Leaders 1 Acquisitions supplemented by innovation
  • 14. 14 Top 10 large Growth Leaders decreased in volume overall (vs. prior years where volume increased) Large Companies Volume and Price Contribution Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis 2 Surgical pricing across portfolio 5.4 3.3 2.3 -4.6 -0.6 -0.2 -2.1 -0.6 -0.7 1.9 3.7 0.5 8.5 3.1 2.2 5.1 2.4 2.0 2.5 0.8 2.1 4.5 7.3 3.4 2.7 3.9 3.0 1.7 1.3 Volume % Chg vs. YA Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA Double click on next pg Top 10 Large Growth Leaders Only top 4 increased volume -2.8 4.0 2.9All Others Top 10 3.3 0.1 -0.6 Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA Volume % Chg vs. YA 2.9% Top 4 vol. growth -2.5% 6-10 vol. decline
  • 15. 15 Top categories by sales growth and corresponding ASP increase1 Examples of ASP Changes at SKU Level P&G executed surgical pricing increases across portfolio to drive value • Driven by consumer insight and competitive landscape • ASP increase differed by category; 38 of 56 categories saw an ASP increase relative to prior year 1. Same SKUs with volume above 10k both 2019 and 2018. Excludes new and discontinued SKUs 2. Sales growth for Bounty Select a Size 12-roll SKU exceeded overall Bounty brand growth due to partial cannibalization for smaller pack sizes. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting and BCG analysis. Surgical pricing across portfolio 4.2% 4.1% 7.1% 4.6% Baby Wipes Toilet Tissue Paper Towels 0.5% 0.5% Diapers Laundry Care 2.8% Deodorant Air Fresheners Cold/Allergy/Sinus Liquids 0.6% 2.3%Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets 3.0%Gastrointestinal - Liquid 2018 ASP $18.02 2019 ASP $18.84 YoY Sales Growth +$128M2 SKU 12 roll $13.41 $13.55 +$36M 30 oz $804 M $614 M $544 M $193 M $58 M $29 M $28 M $26 M $24 M $21 M Sales Growth ASP Growth "We’re looking, as we innovate, to be able to modestly [increase] price and still build value -Jon Moeller, Vice Chairman, COO, CFO Q4 Earnings call 2
  • 16. 16 3 eCommerce as a growth engine eCommerce growing in significance – estimated to be ~10% of CPG portfolio by 2022 20222019 ~4-5% ~10% Digital shelf Growth Leader winners deploy a consistent approach Investing in a digital commerce organization (CoE or dedicated digital teams) 4 Leveraging investment in trade marketing in an eCommerce setting (e.g., banner ads on amazon) 3 Restructuring channel operations and merchandising to ensure right SKUs are available 1 2 Optimizing digital shelf / marketing for pre- purchased in store pick ups at key retailers 5 Having a dedicated brand store optimized for user experience (DTC considerations) eComm penetration as % of CPG sales GL DTC Store Examples Note: eCommerce includes all forms of online shopping (including click & collect) Source: IRI Ecommerce Trends
  • 17. 17Source: IRI Data for MULOC (multi-outlet and convenience), IRI Consulting and BCG analysis Winning manufacturers and brands are tapping into evolving consumer trends Protein On-the-Go Quicker and easier options to meet daily protein needs Better-for-You Snacking Healthier versions of traditional snacks Simple & Transparent Natural, organic, minimal ingredients Hispanic focused Geared toward growing Hispanic population emphasizing heritage Multi-Functional Beverages Beverages offering superior hydration or energy through simpler and cleaner ingredients Premium/Natural Self Care Willingness to pay a premium to take care of body and/or household Deep dive in subsequent pages New in 2019 4 Focused against consumer trends
  • 18. 18 Multi-functional beverages are outpacing traditional sugary alternatives Growth leader examples: Multi-functional beverages provide consumers with many nutritional benefits Energy Hard Seltzer Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis Double click follows 11% 6% 6% 17% 11% 6% 2% 0% -1% -1% -2% Refrigerated Teas 232%Hard Seltzer Sports Drinks Refrigerated Coffee Seltzer/Sparkling/Mineral Energy Drinks Iced Coffee Regular Soft Drinks Rfg Juices/Drinks Drink Mixes Canned And Bottled Tea Bottled Juices 2019 YOY growth (%) Hard Seltzer Energy Sugary Alternatives 4 Focused against consumer trends Hydration Hydration
  • 19. 19 2014 201920182015 2016 $1,138 $2 2017 $1 $7 $32 $308 Bang energy growth trajectory 2014-2019 retail sales, $M Bang's path to growth had several key elements • Identified and solved consumer friction point for energy drinks with sports and performance benefits • Ritualized usage on back of new need created (e.g. drink a Bang Energy Drink before workouts) • Targeted distribution (e.g. gyms) to reach intended audience, coupled with effective digital marketing (e.g., Instagram / influencers) • Disrupted "better-for-me" with primarily sugar-free formulas Source: IRI MULOC; desk research; industry publications; BCG analysis Year 5 Bang Energy 3x growth now exceeding $1B by addressing unmet need at intersection of energy / sports 4 Focused against consumer trends
  • 20. 20 White Claw Convenient, personalized, and better for you, driving 300%+ YoY growth Source: IRI MULOC; BCG and IRI Consulting analysis Multifunctional convenience Easily transportable product (slim, 12 oz. can) with advertising campaigns that highlight consumption in a variety of occasions Personalized flavor Flavored with clean and simple fruit based flavors, available in variety packs to appeal to varied tastes and occasions Better-for-you Won drinkers from other alcohol categories with light, healthier alternative (100 calories only relative to beer); significant growth also coming from wine & spirits drinkers 57 20172016 2018 2019 10 194 834 +449% +241% +330% Distribution1 Velocity2 35 $31 45 $113 60 $277 76 $804 1 – Max ACV Wtd Distribution, 2 – Dollars per $MM ACV 4 Focused against consumer trends White Claw growth trajectory 2014-2019 retail sales, $M
  • 21. 21 Protein on-the-go: Ready-to-eat and convenient offerings driving market growth 6% 5% 5% 7% 2% Nutritional Health Bars Frozen Breakfast Entrees Dried Meat Snacks Refrigerated Meat / Cheese / Snack Frozen Breakfast Handheld 2019 YOY growth (%) Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis Growth leader examples: 4 Focused against consumer trends Exemplar set of growth driving brands by sub-category Snacking Breakfast Old trapper Growth Leader Brand YoY Growth % Hillshire snacking One Brands Jimmy Dean Delights Jimmy Dean Delights +24% +25% +57% +25% +27% Jimmy Dean +7% Jimmy Dean +4% Sub-category growth
  • 22. 22 Premium on-the-go Protein rich breakfast experience driving 8% YoY growth Growth trajectory (2014-2019) Targeted Marketing Targeting a younger audience more flexible in their eating patterns with a "breakfast all day" campaign Innovative Product Product development fueled by "consumer pursuit of heartier breakfast solutions" that can be taken on the go Biscuit roll-ups: Eggs, meat, and cheese in "roll-up" Morning combos: pancakes and muffins in on- the-go bites 868 948 152Jimmy Dean Delights 2016 166 1,023 2017 174 2018 207 1,284 1,076 2019 Jimmy Dean 1,020 1,114 1,197 +8% $M Retail Sales 4 Focused against consumer trends 11.0% 7.4% $ CAGR Better For You Increased breakfast offerings in the "better for you" segment while still maintaining high protein
  • 23. 23 Summary: Key takeaways 2.2% growth for CPGs in 2019 (slight acceleration vs. 2018) driven by • Price and mix: Volume declined for the first year (- 0.3% growth) even among large growth leaders • Smaller companies (<$1B) and Private Label: These players are growing at 3-4% and have taken $19B in sales from larger and midsized companies since '14 Four drivers of Growth Leaders success • Acquisitions supplemented by innovation • Surgical pricing across portfolio • eCommerce as a growth engine • Focused against emerging trends 1 2 3 4 Please reach out to discuss how these opportunities may apply
  • 24. 24 Reach out for more information Peri Edelstein Aman Gupta Jeremy Kuriloff Dr. Krishnakumar (KK) Davey Managing Director and Partner, BCG Managing Director and Partner, BCG Principal, BCG President, Strategic Analytics, IRI Kuriloff.Jeremy@bcg.comGupta.Aman@bcg.comEdelstein.Peri@bcg.com Krishnakumar.Davey@iriworldwide.com
  • 26. 26 Large winning companies switch positions, but several players are frequently in the top 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Large 2019 *Constellation Brands appears in mid-sized players prior to 2017 Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 Large Growth Leaders – Historical Positioning #of times on list 6* 6 3 2 5 6 4 6 1 3
  • 27. 27 Spectrum Many Mid-Sized Players also Consistently in the Top 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mid-Sized 2019 Mid-sized Growth Leaders – Historical Positioning 1 3* 1 1 2 5 6 1 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 #of times on list *Juul appears in small-sized players for 2017 Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
  • 28. 28 Few Small Companies Have Consistently Led Small Growth Leaders – Historical Positioning 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Small 2019 Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 Kind Kind All Market All Market Kind Kiss Kiss All Market Roll Kiss Completely Fresh Foods Icelandic Milk & Skyr Corp. Kiss 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 3 1 8 1 2 4 1 2 2 2 3 1 #of times on list 0
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