COVID-19’s uneven trajectory has created a slower-than-expected rebound in urban travel worldwide. Some mobility modes, however, are poised to exceed pre-pandemic levels. BCG provides a breakdown of recovery levels in urban mobility by region and mode--and over time.

1. COVID-19
Urban Mobility Is
Evolving in
Unexpected Ways

2. 1
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In April, as the US and Europe were in COVID-19 lockdown and China was emerging from it, we
surveyed 5,000 city dwellers in those regions about their urban mobility usage. How had it
changed from the pre-pandemic period? And what did they expect once lockdowns were eased?
Four months later, we conducted a follow-up survey to see how expectations had panned out—
and what residents expect over the next year. We compared the changes in number of weekly
trips and use by mobility mode across regions, along with spending expectations. We also looked
at the impact of working from home.
The exhibits that follow capture our findings. Urban mobility in Europe and in China especially is
rebounding much faster than in the US. Public transit is the big laggard, and private car use is
down more than expected, but bikes and scooters are roaring back.
Introduction

3. 2
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Intra-city private car use is far lower than expected
Residents’ expected use (April) vs. actual use (August)¹
0 10050
Expected
Actual
Actual
Actual
Expected
Actual
0 50 1000 50 100
Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020.
Note: “Expected use” refers to respondents’ answers to our April survey, in which they were asked how they expected to use transportation modes once
lockdowns were lifted, compared with their pre-COVID-19 use. “Actual use,” based on our August survey, reflects how their use has actually changed.
1. Based on April and August 2020 surveys of residents of major cities in the US, Europe, and China; in each survey, n=approximately 5,000 respondents.
2. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing.
Expected
Actual
How to read this chart: Chinese still use less public
transit than before the pandemic, but more than expected
Public transit
Private car
Shared
mobility2
Private bike/
scooter & walking
Average across
modes
Expected
Expected
US EU China
A lot less MoreLess Same as before A lot more Lower than expected usage Same (or similar) usage as expected Higher than expected usage

4. 3
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Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
23%
16%
8% 10%
39%
17%
34%
5%
Aug ’20
20%
7%
31%
1st
Lockdown
16%
38%
7%
29%
14%
39%
15%
6%
25%
In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
100%
Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020.
1. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing.
34%
24%
11%
27%
7%
8%
26%
6%
13%
Aug ’20
43%
35%
1st
Lockdown
16%
28%
20%
6%
12%
39%
27%
7%
11%
In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
100%
24%
23%
7%
20%
29%
21%
11%
26%
28%
8%
25%
29%
1st
Lockdown
18%
27%
8%
21%
Aug ’20
19%
29%
7%
100%
20%
In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
Private bike/scooterWalking Public transitPrivate car
Urban mobility use is rebounding faster in Europe and China
Modal share and change over time, based on number of weekly trips
-54% -26%
-66% -14%
-12%
+10%
+1%-46%-55%
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
US EU China
Shared mobility1

5. 4
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Public transitPrivate carWeighted average across mobility modes Private bike/scooter
The slowest recovery is expected for public transit, while bikes are going strong
Number of weekly trips over time (indexed to 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels)
50%
100%
150%
1st
Lockdown
Aug ’20 In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
1st
Lockdown
Aug ’20 In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
Aug ’20 In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
1st
Lockdown
Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020.
1. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing.
Private car and
privately owned
bike/scooter run
almost in parallel
113%
87%
81%
78%
132%
109%
98%
87%
117%
110%
117%
105%
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
US EU China
Shared mobility1

6. 5
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7%
17%
58%
70%
41%
1st
Lockdown
3%
4%
5%
9%
46%
3%
12%
64%
4%
100%
6%
4%
53%
87%
4%
-13%
24%
3%
69%
15%10%
4%
2%
36%
3%
1st
Lockdown
3%
54%
3%
22%
68%
75%
5%
100%
51%
98%
2%
-2%
19%
68%
2%
4%
5%
1st
Lockdown
6%
65%
31%
15%
100%
19%
75%
38%
92%
108%
2%
6%
6%
8%
8%
+8%
Source: BCG Urban Mobility Surveys, April and August 2020.
Note: Respondents were asked how much they typically spend (or expect to spend) each month on local mobility at these four points in time.
1. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing.
Monthly mobility spending vs. 2019 levels differs considerably across regions
Actual and planned mobility spending (indexed to 2019 levels)
Private bike/
scooter
Shared mobility1
Private car
Public transit
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
Pre-Covid
(Aug ’19)
Aug ’20 Aug ’20Aug ’20In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
In 1 year
(Aug ’21)
US EU China

7. 6
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Private Bike/
Scooter
Shared
mobility2
Private Car
Public Transit
Source: BCG Urban Mobility Survey, August 2020.
Note: Respondents were asked how much they typically spent per month on urban mobility pre-COVID-19 (in August 2019) and how much they expect to spend a year from now (August 2021).
1. Indicates willingness to pay relative to change in consumption.
2. Shared mobility includes taxi/ride hailing, pooled ride hailing, car sharing, bike sharing, and scooter sharing.
Consumers expect to spend less per shared mobility trip in the future
2021 vs. pre-COVID-19
+16%
+3%
-1%
-11%
+32%
+9%
-2%
-13%
-1%
+7%
+11%
~0%
+17%
+10%
+17%
+5%
+2%
-27%
-8%
-29%
Change in
spending
+13%
-19%
-13%
-22%
Change in
# of trips
Change in
spending
Change in
# of trips
Change in
spending
Change in
# of trips
Expected
spend/trip
Expected
spend/trip
US EU China
Expected
spend/trip1

8. 7
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Consumers want to work more from home, and expect a shift toward more
personal trips
Share of respondents who
said they would like to work
from home more often1
Source: BCG Urban Mobility Survey, August 2020.
1. Share of respondents who responded “agree” or “tend to agree” with the statement "I would like to work from home more often and travel less to/from the office.”
65%
56%
71%
-16% +5%-8%
Expected change (Aug ’19 vs. Aug ’21)
-10% +16%+8%
Change in number of weekly
work–related trips
Change in number of weekly
personal trips
US EU China

9. THANK YOU