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Dark Energy Survey 
Collaboration Meeting 
October 22nd 2014 
Why Cosmology isn’t 
Boring 
Peter Coles (MPS) 
(@telescoper)
Dark Energy Survey 
Collaboration Meeting 
October 22nd 2014 
Why the Standard 
Cosmology isn’t 
Boring 
Peter Coles (MPS) 
(@telescoper)
23 October 2014
Precision Cosmology 
“…as we know, there are known knowns; 
there are things we know we know. We also 
know there are known unknowns; that is to 
say we know there are some things we do not 
know. But there are also unknown unknowns 
-- the ones we don't know we don't know.”
SAY “PRECISION 
COSMOLOGY” 
ONE MORE TIME…
Ingredients of the Standard 
Cosmology 
•General Relativity 
•Cold Dark Matter 
•Cosmological Constant 
•Cosmological Principle 
•Primordial Gaussian fluctuations 
•Inflation 
•Baryons 
•Neutrinos 
•Radiation…
Questionable Aspects of the 
Standard Cosmology 
•General Relativity 
•Cold Dark Matter 
•Cosmological Constant 
•Cosmological Principle 
•Primordial Gaussian fluctuations 
•Inflation 
•Baryons 
•Neutrinos 
•Radiation…
“CONCORDANCE”
The Meaning of Inflation (OED) 
1.The action of inflating or distending with air or gas 
2.The condition of being inflated with air or gas, or 
being distended or swollen as if with air 
3.The condition of being puffed up with vanity, pride 
or baseless notions 
4.The quality of language or style when it is swollen 
with big or pompous words; turgidity, bombast
Theories 
Bayesian Frequentist 
Observations
Cosmology is a massive 
exercise in data 
compression... 
Cosmology is an exercise in data compression 
….but it is worth looking at 
the information that has 
been thrown away to check 
that it makes sense!
The Elephant in the Room
Beyond the Power 
Spectrum 
• So far what we have discovered is 
largely based on second-order 
statistics… 
• This is fine as long as we don’t throw 
away important clues… 
• ..ie if the fluctuations are statistically 
homogeneous and istropic, and 
Gaussian..
“If tortured sufficiently, data 
will confess to almost 
anything” 
Fred Menger
Beware the Prosecutor’s 
Fallacy! 
P(A|M)¹P(M|A)
CMB Anomalies 
•Type I – obvious problems with data 
(e.g. foregrounds) 
•Type II – anisotropies and alignments 
(North-South, Axis of Evil..) 
•Type III – localized features, e.g. “The 
Cold Spot” 
•Type IV – Something else (even/odd 
multipoles, magnetic fields, ?)
Low Quadrupole?
Parity Violation?
(from Copi et al. 2005)
(from Hansen et al. 2004)
A. There’s no problem at all 
with LCDM… 
B. There are interesting 
indications… 
C. There’s definitely 
evidence of new physics
The “Maximally Boring 
Universe”? 
• There are many unanswered theoretical 
questions! 
• So far the questions we’ve asked have 
been the “easy” ones 
• Now that this “boring” stuff is out of the 
way, cosmology will start to get 
interesting! 
• Because we now have a better idea what 
to ask!
BICEP2
23 October 2014
23 October 2014

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TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: CENTRIFUGATION SLIDESHARE.pptx
 

Why Cosmology Isn't Boring

  • 1. Dark Energy Survey Collaboration Meeting October 22nd 2014 Why Cosmology isn’t Boring Peter Coles (MPS) (@telescoper)
  • 2. Dark Energy Survey Collaboration Meeting October 22nd 2014 Why the Standard Cosmology isn’t Boring Peter Coles (MPS) (@telescoper)
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  • 11. Precision Cosmology “…as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know.”
  • 12. SAY “PRECISION COSMOLOGY” ONE MORE TIME…
  • 13. Ingredients of the Standard Cosmology •General Relativity •Cold Dark Matter •Cosmological Constant •Cosmological Principle •Primordial Gaussian fluctuations •Inflation •Baryons •Neutrinos •Radiation…
  • 14. Questionable Aspects of the Standard Cosmology •General Relativity •Cold Dark Matter •Cosmological Constant •Cosmological Principle •Primordial Gaussian fluctuations •Inflation •Baryons •Neutrinos •Radiation…
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  • 25. The Meaning of Inflation (OED) 1.The action of inflating or distending with air or gas 2.The condition of being inflated with air or gas, or being distended or swollen as if with air 3.The condition of being puffed up with vanity, pride or baseless notions 4.The quality of language or style when it is swollen with big or pompous words; turgidity, bombast
  • 27. Cosmology is a massive exercise in data compression... Cosmology is an exercise in data compression ….but it is worth looking at the information that has been thrown away to check that it makes sense!
  • 28. The Elephant in the Room
  • 29. Beyond the Power Spectrum • So far what we have discovered is largely based on second-order statistics… • This is fine as long as we don’t throw away important clues… • ..ie if the fluctuations are statistically homogeneous and istropic, and Gaussian..
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  • 35. “If tortured sufficiently, data will confess to almost anything” Fred Menger
  • 36. Beware the Prosecutor’s Fallacy! P(A|M)¹P(M|A)
  • 37. CMB Anomalies •Type I – obvious problems with data (e.g. foregrounds) •Type II – anisotropies and alignments (North-South, Axis of Evil..) •Type III – localized features, e.g. “The Cold Spot” •Type IV – Something else (even/odd multipoles, magnetic fields, ?)
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  • 45. A. There’s no problem at all with LCDM… B. There are interesting indications… C. There’s definitely evidence of new physics
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  • 53. The “Maximally Boring Universe”? • There are many unanswered theoretical questions! • So far the questions we’ve asked have been the “easy” ones • Now that this “boring” stuff is out of the way, cosmology will start to get interesting! • Because we now have a better idea what to ask!