This document provides an economic and financial market update for November 2012. It includes numerous charts and graphs analyzing indicators related to the U.S. and global economies, such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, stock and bond markets, housing, jobs, bank lending, exports, and commodity prices. Several charts compare the U.S. to other G10 countries. The document discusses whether the recoveries are sustainable or if new risks may emerge. It also contemplates various economic scenarios and possibilities for 2012-2013.
2011 promises to be the year of commodities. Every global event in the last three
years has either been triggered by commodities or has, in a roundabout way, led to
increased influence of commodity prices on the macro-economic environment.
The recent events in Egypt are a case in point. Even in the ongoing currency wars,
commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar and Brazilian Real have shown genuine
muscle and there is nothing on the horizon to show that the trend is changing.
The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.
This document provides BlackRock's outlook for 2015 global markets and economies. It identifies divergence as a key theme, with the US and UK tightening monetary policy while other regions maintain stimulus. Volatility is expected to increase from low levels as valuations are high and investor confidence in monetary policy is stretched. Geopolitical risks also remain. The outlook calls for active risk management and hedging given low potential returns and the diminished ability of bonds to offset equity declines.
The document provides a market outlook and forecast for 2013 by Timothy E. Burt, CFA.
The summary is:
1) Most global stock markets performed well in 2012, led by Germany and Japan, while the UK and Canada lagged.
2) The author believes the global economy will gradually improve in 2013, with stronger growth in the second half as issues in Europe and China are addressed.
3) The forecast is for US GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% and Canadian growth of 1.5-2.0% in 2013. US and Canadian stock markets are expected to rise 12-15% with the S&P 500 surpassing its 2007 high.
The document provides a daily forex report with the following key points:
- The US dollar is performing well ahead of important US data and a Federal Reserve policy announcement later in the day.
- The Fed may strike a dovish tone which could benefit currencies like the euro and Japanese yen against the US dollar.
- Technical analysis is provided for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD with trading tips to buy, sell, or stay away from these currency pairs.
- Economic data and event calendars are given for the US, eurozone, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and China for the next few days.
This document discusses money supply and related economic indicators in the United States, European Union, and China. It defines different measures of money supply and how money supply relates to economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. Recent trends are described, such as the U.S. and EU money supplies decreasing from 2008-2011 while China's increased steadily. The EU and China struggle with inflation as their money supplies rise, while U.S. unemployment remains high despite a recent small increase in money supply. Sources are listed at the end.
This document discusses money supply and related economic indicators in the United States, European Union, and China. It defines different measures of money supply and how money supply relates to economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. The document analyzes trends in GDP, CPI, and money supply for these three economies in recent decades. It concludes that maintaining a stable money supply is important for stable interest rates, prices, and consumer spending to support economic growth.
2011 promises to be the year of commodities. Every global event in the last three
years has either been triggered by commodities or has, in a roundabout way, led to
increased influence of commodity prices on the macro-economic environment.
The recent events in Egypt are a case in point. Even in the ongoing currency wars,
commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar and Brazilian Real have shown genuine
muscle and there is nothing on the horizon to show that the trend is changing.
The document provides an economic and market update and outlook for November 2012. It discusses recent performance and trends in global equity markets, the Indian economy and key sectors. The overall outlook is cautiously positive. The Indian economy is seen to have bottomed out, and further monetary easing and fiscal policy actions are expected to revive growth going forward. Private sector banks are favored over public sector banks based on better Q2 results.
This document provides BlackRock's outlook for 2015 global markets and economies. It identifies divergence as a key theme, with the US and UK tightening monetary policy while other regions maintain stimulus. Volatility is expected to increase from low levels as valuations are high and investor confidence in monetary policy is stretched. Geopolitical risks also remain. The outlook calls for active risk management and hedging given low potential returns and the diminished ability of bonds to offset equity declines.
The document provides a market outlook and forecast for 2013 by Timothy E. Burt, CFA.
The summary is:
1) Most global stock markets performed well in 2012, led by Germany and Japan, while the UK and Canada lagged.
2) The author believes the global economy will gradually improve in 2013, with stronger growth in the second half as issues in Europe and China are addressed.
3) The forecast is for US GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% and Canadian growth of 1.5-2.0% in 2013. US and Canadian stock markets are expected to rise 12-15% with the S&P 500 surpassing its 2007 high.
The document provides a daily forex report with the following key points:
- The US dollar is performing well ahead of important US data and a Federal Reserve policy announcement later in the day.
- The Fed may strike a dovish tone which could benefit currencies like the euro and Japanese yen against the US dollar.
- Technical analysis is provided for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD with trading tips to buy, sell, or stay away from these currency pairs.
- Economic data and event calendars are given for the US, eurozone, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and China for the next few days.
This document discusses money supply and related economic indicators in the United States, European Union, and China. It defines different measures of money supply and how money supply relates to economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. Recent trends are described, such as the U.S. and EU money supplies decreasing from 2008-2011 while China's increased steadily. The EU and China struggle with inflation as their money supplies rise, while U.S. unemployment remains high despite a recent small increase in money supply. Sources are listed at the end.
This document discusses money supply and related economic indicators in the United States, European Union, and China. It defines different measures of money supply and how money supply relates to economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. The document analyzes trends in GDP, CPI, and money supply for these three economies in recent decades. It concludes that maintaining a stable money supply is important for stable interest rates, prices, and consumer spending to support economic growth.
This document discusses money supply and related economic indicators in the United States, European Union, and China. It provides definitions of different measures of money supply (M0-M3) and notes that the US money supply decreased from 2008-2011 while the EU and China saw increases. It also discusses related trends in GDP, inflation rates, and how changes in money supply can impact economic growth, unemployment, and prices. Overall it analyzes how changes in money supply have affected economic performance and inflation in these major economies in recent decades.
The document discusses the state of the US economy and debt financing markets for middle market companies. It notes that while the economic recovery remains fragile, modest growth in areas like manufacturing, personal income and expenditures, coupled with continued federal stimulus, should allow the economy to continue growing without a second recession. However, unemployment will remain high as productivity gains allow more output with fewer workers. Debt markets have also seen renewed activity, with increased volumes in both the leveraged loan and high yield bond markets.
The Canadian economy grew modestly in August but gains have moderated from earlier in the year. Consumer confidence stabilized in October after declines. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q3, led by inventory, consumption, and government spending. Housing sales increased slightly but remain near lows. Growth continued in the Eurozone and UK but may slow, while Japan saw improvements in business and consumer spending. Canadian and US stock markets gained in October with technology and consumer sectors outperforming, while bond yields were stable.
This is where Deitric Muhammad predicted the so-called Credit Crunch/Financial Crisis 2008, the rise of telecommunications and banking in Africa, and more! Yes, he was THE FIRST person to ACCURATELY PREDICT the World Financial Crisis as early as October 2005!!!
- Major equity markets dropped in August due to concerns about the pace of the global economic recovery. Bond markets and gold prices rose as investors sought safer assets.
- While the US and global economies are growing, the recovery is slower than expected. Unemployment remains high in the US and the housing market is still weak.
- Canada's economy is performing better than the US due to stronger commodity demand and fiscal position. However, growth may slow as the housing and consumer spending boom recedes.
Whats Ahead In 2012 - An Investment Perspective (Spring Update)scottmeek
The document provides an investment perspective and outlook for 2012 from BlackRock. Some key points:
1) The US economy is expected to continue modest growth in 2012, which should be enough to support further stock market gains.
2) Bond yields have risen but a significant bond bear market is not expected. Higher yields alone are not seen as an impediment to stocks.
3) Stocks had strong gains in Q1 2012 and further gains are expected for the year, though at a slower pace. Outperformance of US stocks and sectors focusing on free cash flow and dividends are recommended.
The fundamental theme of the newsletter remains the same -- to dive deeper into economic issues that affect our investors. However to keep it interesting, the analysis has been kept at a macro level without getting into minute details.
We received encouraging feedback on the inaugural issue and we have used the same to improve this edition.
We hope you find the newsletter interesting.
The document is a newsletter from the CEO of HBJ Capital providing an outlook on the global markets and economy. It warns that the US and European economies may be heading toward a recession as various economic indicators are slowing down. It predicts the Indian stock market will see further downside in the near future. The newsletter advocates keeping cash reserves for now and anticipates a buying opportunity will soon arise in stocks once market bottoms. It promotes understanding economic cycles to time investments in stocks and other asset classes.
1) The global investment landscape may realign in 2016 as major central banks change course, with the US expected to raise rates, Japan potentially tapering QE, and China's reforms promoting growth.
2) China has successfully rebalanced its economy away from heavy industry and towards services, accounting for half of GDP, but headlines still focus on declines in manufacturing.
3) Infrastructure investment in China has stabilized and signs point to a potential cyclical upswing in housing, which could drive broader economic growth and commodity demand in the coming year.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the US retail market in Q3 2011. It notes that after an initial recovery in 2010 and the first half of 2011, recent economic data shows the recovery has slowed. The retail sector remains vulnerable to negative economic news and events. While some retailers and property types are faring better, bifurcation in the market is limiting opportunities for those in riskier situations. Landlords and tenants remain cautiously optimistic for the rest of 2011 but have provided a conservative outlook for 2012.
The document discusses the global recession of 2008 and its impact on the Indian economy. It first defines recession and explains how the US subprime mortgage crisis and rising oil prices caused a recession. This impacted India as US outsourcing and exports from India declined. Key sectors affected included the stock market, IT industry, real estate, exports, and foreign investment. The government took steps like lowering interest rates to address the situation, but recession still had widespread effects on jobs and businesses across multiple industries in India.
February 2012 "State of the Debt Capital Markets"Brian Schofield
The document summarizes recent economic trends in the United States. It notes that while uncertainties remain regarding fiscal policy and the European debt crisis, the Federal Reserve has provided stability by communicating its plans to keep interest rates low until 2014. The U.S. economy showed signs of strength in 2011, with improving consumer spending and sentiment as well as job growth. Barring major setbacks, the outlook for continued growth in the U.S. economy remains positive in 2012.
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
This document provides a quarterly review of capital markets and the economy for the period ending December 31, 2009. It includes summaries of key economic indicators such as GDP, employment, consumer confidence, and inflation. It also reviews the performance of major asset classes and indexes. Expert commentary is provided on the economic outlook and investment strategy.
The quarterly market review summarizes the performance of the US and global markets from April to June 2012. Major US indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw losses for the quarter, though they remain up year-to-date. Fears about Europe led to higher demand for US Treasuries and lower yields. Commodity prices like oil and gold also declined for the quarter. The document outlines various economic news and indicators over the period, and notes some key upcoming economic reports and events in July.
The document provides an economic and market update for August 2012, analyzing factors such as global economic conditions, domestic economic growth and inflation trends, performance of key equity and debt markets, and providing an outlook on various sectors and the overall market. It notes recent monetary policy actions by central banks and analyzes their likely impact, while also offering recommendations to investors on portfolio rebalancing and positioning across different asset classes.
This report provides a summary of global real estate market trends in the second quarter of 2013. The key points are:
1) Real home prices strengthened year-over-year in most countries surveyed, led by gains in the US and UK as monetary policy easing supports demand.
2) Canadian housing activity remains buoyant due to low interest rates, but fundamentals are becoming less favorable as job growth slows. Condo overbuilding is a concern in major cities like Toronto.
3) Several European markets like the UK are showing signs of recovery, while conditions remain weak in southern Europe with high unemployment in countries like Spain and Ireland.
4) Asian property markets are mixed, with strong growth continuing
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 may 2013Epic Daily Report
The document provides a daily forex report with the following key points:
- The British Pound rallied after the Bank of England raised its growth forecast for the UK and supported the inflation-targeting framework.
- Technical analysis is provided for the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD currency pairs, with buy and sell signals.
- An economic calendar lists numerous upcoming economic data releases and forecasts for various countries.
1) The UK economic recovery stalled in 2011 and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis continued to impact markets. Unemployment rose to its highest level since 1994 while youth unemployment reached a record high.
2) Forecasts for 2012 GDP growth remain low at around 0.7% and inflation is falling but remains above target. Exports are seen as important to the recovery but the trade deficit fell in late 2011.
3) Businesses are advised to remain flexible and regularly update plans as the economic situation remains uncertain and volatile. Support is available for exporting and taking advantage of any opportunities that may arise.
India strategy elara securities - august 2013umeshnihalani
- The Reserve Bank of India is struggling with the "impossible trinity" of maintaining an independent monetary policy, fixed exchange rates, and open capital accounts all at the same time given the differing economic cycles of India and the US.
- As US yields have risen, India has to choose between a floating exchange rate with monetary independence or a pegged rate to the USD that requires monetary tightening. For now, RBI is inclined toward the latter but may have to shift to the former to boost India's sagging economy.
- Trying to pursue both options through a "middle path" could distort policymaking and require short-term fixes rather than long-term solutions according to the analysis.
Curtis Webber played offensive and defensive lineman for Ohio Western College in 2012. The summary lists Ohio Western's 2012 football schedule including home games against Atlantic Sports Academy and away games against schools like Ohio Northern, Campbell, Ashland, Tiffin, Ohio Dominican, Carson Newman, and Pikeville Universities played between August and October 2012.
O documento fornece um resumo histórico do Android, desde sua criação em 2003 até versões recentes como o Jelly Bean de 2012. Detalha os principais marcos do sistema operacional móvel, incluindo lançamentos de versões, dispositivos e parcerias. Também aborda brevemente as habilidades necessárias para atuar como desenvolvedor Android e as oportunidades de carreira na área.
This document discusses money supply and related economic indicators in the United States, European Union, and China. It provides definitions of different measures of money supply (M0-M3) and notes that the US money supply decreased from 2008-2011 while the EU and China saw increases. It also discusses related trends in GDP, inflation rates, and how changes in money supply can impact economic growth, unemployment, and prices. Overall it analyzes how changes in money supply have affected economic performance and inflation in these major economies in recent decades.
The document discusses the state of the US economy and debt financing markets for middle market companies. It notes that while the economic recovery remains fragile, modest growth in areas like manufacturing, personal income and expenditures, coupled with continued federal stimulus, should allow the economy to continue growing without a second recession. However, unemployment will remain high as productivity gains allow more output with fewer workers. Debt markets have also seen renewed activity, with increased volumes in both the leveraged loan and high yield bond markets.
The Canadian economy grew modestly in August but gains have moderated from earlier in the year. Consumer confidence stabilized in October after declines. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q3, led by inventory, consumption, and government spending. Housing sales increased slightly but remain near lows. Growth continued in the Eurozone and UK but may slow, while Japan saw improvements in business and consumer spending. Canadian and US stock markets gained in October with technology and consumer sectors outperforming, while bond yields were stable.
This is where Deitric Muhammad predicted the so-called Credit Crunch/Financial Crisis 2008, the rise of telecommunications and banking in Africa, and more! Yes, he was THE FIRST person to ACCURATELY PREDICT the World Financial Crisis as early as October 2005!!!
- Major equity markets dropped in August due to concerns about the pace of the global economic recovery. Bond markets and gold prices rose as investors sought safer assets.
- While the US and global economies are growing, the recovery is slower than expected. Unemployment remains high in the US and the housing market is still weak.
- Canada's economy is performing better than the US due to stronger commodity demand and fiscal position. However, growth may slow as the housing and consumer spending boom recedes.
Whats Ahead In 2012 - An Investment Perspective (Spring Update)scottmeek
The document provides an investment perspective and outlook for 2012 from BlackRock. Some key points:
1) The US economy is expected to continue modest growth in 2012, which should be enough to support further stock market gains.
2) Bond yields have risen but a significant bond bear market is not expected. Higher yields alone are not seen as an impediment to stocks.
3) Stocks had strong gains in Q1 2012 and further gains are expected for the year, though at a slower pace. Outperformance of US stocks and sectors focusing on free cash flow and dividends are recommended.
The fundamental theme of the newsletter remains the same -- to dive deeper into economic issues that affect our investors. However to keep it interesting, the analysis has been kept at a macro level without getting into minute details.
We received encouraging feedback on the inaugural issue and we have used the same to improve this edition.
We hope you find the newsletter interesting.
The document is a newsletter from the CEO of HBJ Capital providing an outlook on the global markets and economy. It warns that the US and European economies may be heading toward a recession as various economic indicators are slowing down. It predicts the Indian stock market will see further downside in the near future. The newsletter advocates keeping cash reserves for now and anticipates a buying opportunity will soon arise in stocks once market bottoms. It promotes understanding economic cycles to time investments in stocks and other asset classes.
1) The global investment landscape may realign in 2016 as major central banks change course, with the US expected to raise rates, Japan potentially tapering QE, and China's reforms promoting growth.
2) China has successfully rebalanced its economy away from heavy industry and towards services, accounting for half of GDP, but headlines still focus on declines in manufacturing.
3) Infrastructure investment in China has stabilized and signs point to a potential cyclical upswing in housing, which could drive broader economic growth and commodity demand in the coming year.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the US retail market in Q3 2011. It notes that after an initial recovery in 2010 and the first half of 2011, recent economic data shows the recovery has slowed. The retail sector remains vulnerable to negative economic news and events. While some retailers and property types are faring better, bifurcation in the market is limiting opportunities for those in riskier situations. Landlords and tenants remain cautiously optimistic for the rest of 2011 but have provided a conservative outlook for 2012.
The document discusses the global recession of 2008 and its impact on the Indian economy. It first defines recession and explains how the US subprime mortgage crisis and rising oil prices caused a recession. This impacted India as US outsourcing and exports from India declined. Key sectors affected included the stock market, IT industry, real estate, exports, and foreign investment. The government took steps like lowering interest rates to address the situation, but recession still had widespread effects on jobs and businesses across multiple industries in India.
February 2012 "State of the Debt Capital Markets"Brian Schofield
The document summarizes recent economic trends in the United States. It notes that while uncertainties remain regarding fiscal policy and the European debt crisis, the Federal Reserve has provided stability by communicating its plans to keep interest rates low until 2014. The U.S. economy showed signs of strength in 2011, with improving consumer spending and sentiment as well as job growth. Barring major setbacks, the outlook for continued growth in the U.S. economy remains positive in 2012.
The document provides an economic and capital markets update for October 2010 from GWL Investment Management Ltd. It summarizes recent economic data and trends in Canada, the US, and internationally. In Canada, retail sales fell and inflation dipped slightly due to lower energy prices. The economy is expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2010. In the US, inflation remained subdued while housing starts increased but are still forecast to decline in the third quarter. The global recovery continued with strong trade growth and industrial output increases in emerging markets. Financial markets posted gains in September with the S&P/TSX Composite Index and US indexes rising over 4% and global equity indexes increasing as well. Bond indexes also rose for the month.
This document provides a quarterly review of capital markets and the economy for the period ending December 31, 2009. It includes summaries of key economic indicators such as GDP, employment, consumer confidence, and inflation. It also reviews the performance of major asset classes and indexes. Expert commentary is provided on the economic outlook and investment strategy.
The quarterly market review summarizes the performance of the US and global markets from April to June 2012. Major US indexes like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw losses for the quarter, though they remain up year-to-date. Fears about Europe led to higher demand for US Treasuries and lower yields. Commodity prices like oil and gold also declined for the quarter. The document outlines various economic news and indicators over the period, and notes some key upcoming economic reports and events in July.
The document provides an economic and market update for August 2012, analyzing factors such as global economic conditions, domestic economic growth and inflation trends, performance of key equity and debt markets, and providing an outlook on various sectors and the overall market. It notes recent monetary policy actions by central banks and analyzes their likely impact, while also offering recommendations to investors on portfolio rebalancing and positioning across different asset classes.
This report provides a summary of global real estate market trends in the second quarter of 2013. The key points are:
1) Real home prices strengthened year-over-year in most countries surveyed, led by gains in the US and UK as monetary policy easing supports demand.
2) Canadian housing activity remains buoyant due to low interest rates, but fundamentals are becoming less favorable as job growth slows. Condo overbuilding is a concern in major cities like Toronto.
3) Several European markets like the UK are showing signs of recovery, while conditions remain weak in southern Europe with high unemployment in countries like Spain and Ireland.
4) Asian property markets are mixed, with strong growth continuing
Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 16 may 2013Epic Daily Report
The document provides a daily forex report with the following key points:
- The British Pound rallied after the Bank of England raised its growth forecast for the UK and supported the inflation-targeting framework.
- Technical analysis is provided for the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD currency pairs, with buy and sell signals.
- An economic calendar lists numerous upcoming economic data releases and forecasts for various countries.
1) The UK economic recovery stalled in 2011 and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis continued to impact markets. Unemployment rose to its highest level since 1994 while youth unemployment reached a record high.
2) Forecasts for 2012 GDP growth remain low at around 0.7% and inflation is falling but remains above target. Exports are seen as important to the recovery but the trade deficit fell in late 2011.
3) Businesses are advised to remain flexible and regularly update plans as the economic situation remains uncertain and volatile. Support is available for exporting and taking advantage of any opportunities that may arise.
India strategy elara securities - august 2013umeshnihalani
- The Reserve Bank of India is struggling with the "impossible trinity" of maintaining an independent monetary policy, fixed exchange rates, and open capital accounts all at the same time given the differing economic cycles of India and the US.
- As US yields have risen, India has to choose between a floating exchange rate with monetary independence or a pegged rate to the USD that requires monetary tightening. For now, RBI is inclined toward the latter but may have to shift to the former to boost India's sagging economy.
- Trying to pursue both options through a "middle path" could distort policymaking and require short-term fixes rather than long-term solutions according to the analysis.
Curtis Webber played offensive and defensive lineman for Ohio Western College in 2012. The summary lists Ohio Western's 2012 football schedule including home games against Atlantic Sports Academy and away games against schools like Ohio Northern, Campbell, Ashland, Tiffin, Ohio Dominican, Carson Newman, and Pikeville Universities played between August and October 2012.
O documento fornece um resumo histórico do Android, desde sua criação em 2003 até versões recentes como o Jelly Bean de 2012. Detalha os principais marcos do sistema operacional móvel, incluindo lançamentos de versões, dispositivos e parcerias. Também aborda brevemente as habilidades necessárias para atuar como desenvolvedor Android e as oportunidades de carreira na área.
El documento proporciona instrucciones para crear una cuenta en SlideShare y subir una presentación. Se explica que los usuarios deben ingresar a la página web de SlideShare, hacer clic en "Login", luego en "Signup" para crear una cuenta, y finalmente usar el botón "Upload" para subir una presentación seleccionada.
The document summarizes the strong performance of the stock market in the first quarter of 2012, with the S&P 500 rising 12% which was its best start since 1998. Analysts attributed the gains to an easing of Europe's debt crisis, a strengthening global economy, rising US consumer sentiment, and supportive Federal Reserve policy. However, some warn that the market could falter later in the year as it has in recent years, due to potential risks like renewed European debt issues or a slowing US economy.
This annual report from Cassidy Turley provides an economic overview and market reports for Indianapolis, Indiana in 2012. Despite challenges in 2011, Indiana's commercial real estate markets proved resilient as fundamentals strengthened across all segments. Cassidy Turley also had a successful year, being ranked the top commercial real estate brokerage and manager in Indianapolis. The report includes sections on the industrial, office, retail, investment, and land markets, providing data and analysis on each sector.
Are we there yet? Searching for the bottom of the recession of 2007theonlyelina
This document discusses the state of the US and global economies in September 2009 and whether the recession of 2007 may have reached its bottom. It provides an overview of recent economic indicators and forecasts, including declines in GDP, employment, consumer spending. It also examines issues in industries like finance, housing, and automobiles. The document reviews the performance of the economies in countries around the world and provides projections on the expected pace of recovery.
Growing and preserving wealth for generations requires a long-term perspective and disciplined process. In 2012, markets remained volatile due to ongoing challenges in Europe and moderate economic growth. However, stock valuations are reasonable and corporate profits remain strong. Looking ahead, following a prudent process focused on risk management and capital preservation should serve investors well, even if surprises emerge.
Government’s release of Rs 86.55 billion to certain
banks for preferential allotment of shares, hopes of more reform
measures by the government in the upcoming Budget, and
sustained inflows from the foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
augured well for the local indices.
Read the full document to know more.
YMFYP International Portfolio PowerpointRaphael_Comte
International Portfolio management through Stocktrak (US and foreign stocks, US and foreign bonds, futures, options, foreign-exchange-exposure hedging strategies)
157-INDIA'S TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION (Interesting)nrvalluri
This document discusses India becoming a trillion dollar economy and the rising value of the rupee. It summarizes that rising inflation led the RBI to raise interest rates, but this caused a surge in capital inflows rather than less borrowing. The RBI then intervened in currency markets, inflating money supply. While a stronger rupee helps reduce inflation, it could hurt exporters if significant. The appreciation has been modest against most currencies but larger recently. Exporter profitability is high but some labor sectors could be impacted. The RBI has options like sterilization to control money supply effects from intervening in markets.
1) The UK economy is expected to grow slowly at around 0.9% in 2011 and 2012 before gradually increasing to a long-term trend of 2.4% over the following five years.
2) UK inflation is predicted to fall from recent highs but remain above the 2% target, averaging around 2.5% in 2012.
3) Unemployment is projected to rise to 2.7 million in 2012 before decreasing modestly in subsequent years, with the unemployment rate averaging 8.5% in 2012.
1) 2011 was a difficult year for global stock markets which declined significantly, while bond markets performed well as investors sought safe havens.
2) Economic uncertainty and lack of policy resolution led to high market volatility, with no country or sector immune to fluctuations.
3) Looking to 2012, the document predicts continued subpar global growth, recession in the Eurozone, and a bumpy ride for markets dependent on resolution of European fiscal issues.
Atradius Country Report - United States – April 2014Salih Yilmaz
Atradius country reports are designed to support you in trading safely abroad. Our overviews give you short, concise information on large Western economies´ economic performance and insolvency development and on main emerging markets´ current political and economical situation and outlook.
This monthly report from the Center for Business & Economic Research at UNLV discusses the state of the US economy in August 2012. It finds that:
1) US GDP growth slowed to 1.3% in Q2 2012, below potential GDP.
2) Personal consumption spending was the largest contributor to GDP growth in the first half of 2012, outpacing overall GDP growth.
3) Business investment spending grew modestly while residential investment strengthened, suggesting moderate overall investment growth.
4) Government spending declines contributed to slowing GDP, though the impacts varied between federal and state/local levels.
Hong Kong saw the strongest residential price growth of the 10 cities surveyed at 7.4% in the first half of 2012, driven by strengthening domestic demand rather than international buyers. London's prime residential markets performed well due to international investment demand, while mainstream markets saw slowing growth. Paris saw the largest price drop of -3.4% due to the eurozone crisis and new taxes proposed on the wealthy in France.
The document provides an update on risk management from Altrius Capital Management for Q2 2012. It discusses rising global event risks to economic growth from issues like the US fiscal cliff, problems in Europe with the Euro and sovereign debt crisis, and a potential slowdown in China. The update also covers Altrius' strategic response to increased market volatility through tactical portfolio shifts to mitigate risk. Finally, it emphasizes Altrius' commitment to risk-adjusted returns through low-volatility strategies.
The document defines a recession as occurring when a country's GDP shrinks for two consecutive quarters. It can be caused by overproduction, low consumer confidence, and assignable causes like terrorist attacks. Global recessions are defined as global growth being less than 3%. The document discusses some major 20th century recessions and their causes. It notes India was less impacted than other countries during the 2008 recession due to domestic demand and limited exposure. Ways to recover include fiscal policies like tax cuts and increased government spending, and monetary policies where the central bank manipulates money supply and interest rates. The document also argues recessions can be a good time to start a company by forcing frugality and toughening up businesses.
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
The document provides an overview of recent US economic data and projections. It discusses improving indicators for GDP growth, unemployment claims, consumer spending and inflation expectations. Housing starts are gradually recovering but vehicle sales have far to go. The federal budget deficit was $1.3 trillion in 2010 and is projected to be $1.5 trillion in 2011, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to continue rising according to baseline forecasts.
The document provides an economic and market review for Q1 2009. It summarizes key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, unemployment and housing prices. It also reviews the performance of major asset classes and indexes in 2008. Nearly all asset classes lost money last year except investment-grade fixed income. The S&P 500 fell over 30% while small cap and international markets declined over 35%.
The document discusses stock performance in 2011 and analyzes high-dividend stocks from the past. It finds that in 2011, stocks with the highest dividend yields were the only ones to experience positive returns, with gains of 10.4%, 6.4%, and 8.7% respectively. The document also examines "Nifty Fifty" stocks from the 1970s that were seen as guaranteed growth companies but have had varying performance over 40 years, with some like Eastman Kodak struggling in their transition to digital. Key lessons are that some iconic stocks remain so, promoting "one decision" stocks is not a sound strategy, and all stocks can decline to zero.
The Arizona State Treasurer held a quarterly meeting and conference call on November 1, 2012. The agenda included discussing LGIP and endowment performance, proposed changes to the endowment distribution formula, and an update on state cash flow. Guest speaker Dr. Jim Paulsen also presented on the economic outlook. The Treasurer's investment philosophy emphasizes safety, liquidity, and then yield. LGIP and endowment portfolios achieved positive returns in Q1 FY2013. A smoother distribution formula was proposed that takes the 5-year average of the endowment's market value times 2.5% for the annual distribution amount. The state's cash flow was up 70% in the first quarter year-over-year with the
The quarterly meeting agenda included discussing the performance of the LGIP, endowments, and state cash flow. The treasurer's investment philosophy prioritizes safety, liquidity, then yield. LGIP pools performed well in Q4 2012. The endowment market value was $3.52 billion as of June 2012 with unrealized gains of $911 million. A new distribution formula based on a 5-year average was proposed. State cash flow and balances were up significantly year-over-year. Jim Palmer then presented on current market conditions, Fed policy, strategies around the yield curve and duration, and attractive sectors.
The document summarizes key topics from an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call, including:
1) LGIP and endowment fund performance updates.
2) Proposed changes to the endowment distribution formula to provide smoother, more consistent distributions.
3) A state budget presentation reviewing Arizona's economic outlook and revenue forecasts.
4) Updates on state cash flow trends and the components driving individual income tax growth.
The document summarizes the performance and allocation of Arizona's endowment fund as of February 2012. It notes that the fund was updated in 2011 from a 50/50 to a 60/40 stock to bond allocation, increasing expected returns from 6% to 6.4% while also increasing risk. As of February 2012, the fund was valued at $3.52 billion and provided a record K-12 distribution of $77.8 million for fiscal year 2012. The document also discusses exploring changing the distribution formula to provide more stable annual distributions.
The document summarizes the agenda and presentations for a quarterly meeting and conference call of the Arizona Local Government Investment Pool (LGIP). Key topics included LGIP and endowment fund performance, earnings, new separately managed account products, and economic updates on the state of Arizona. An economic presentation was also given by Joseph Quinlan of U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management.
This document presents proposed asset allocation options for the Arizona Permanent State Land Fund. It reviews restricted and unrestricted policy portfolios, comparing them to the fund's current policy. Alternative policies are expected to produce more efficient risk-return outcomes through increased diversification, including exposure to international markets, fixed income, real assets, and private markets. Peer funds in other states have adopted broader allocation strategies incorporating illiquid asset classes. Risk analyses of the options are provided to help trustees evaluate the tradeoffs.
The document provides an agenda and summaries from an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call. It discusses LGIP earnings, performance of various pools, a new separately managed account product, endowment performance and market value exceeding $3 billion, K-12 distributions reaching a new record, and state cash flow trends including a 14% increase in the operating account average monthly balance year-over-year. It concludes with a question and answer session.
The document provides an agenda for an LGIP quarterly meeting and conference call. It includes discussions on LGIP and endowment performance, new LGIP products, endowment distribution formulas, state cash flow, and an Arizona economic update. A special presentation will be given by Alex Roever of JP Morgan Securities on the US short-term credit outlook. Time will also be provided for questions.
This document summarizes the quarterly meeting of the LGIP (Local Government Investment Pool). It discusses the earnings, performance, and asset allocation of various investment pools including Pool 5, Pool 7, Pool 500, and Pool 700. It also summarizes the performance of the State Endowment and discusses its asset allocation, unrealized gains, distribution formula, and economic outlook for Arizona.
1. ECONOMY is GEARING: #7 Bank Lending &
#8 State Jobs !!!
Total U.S. Bank Loans State Government Total Tax Collections
vs. State Government Employment
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
2. ECONOMY is GEARING: #9 Net Exports!!!
U. S. Real Exports vs. Real Imports U. S. REAL Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar
Index
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
3. ECONOMY is GEARING: #10 Sensitivity to Crises!!
CBOE VIX VOLATILITY Index Bloomberg European Financial Conditions
Index
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
4. U.S. Economy is Self-Medicating!!!
30-Year National Average Annual Growth in the M2 Trade-Weighted U.S.
Mortgage Interest Rate Money Supply Dollar Index
Commodity Prices Total Annualized U.S. Annual Consumer Price
Crude Oil vs. Non-Energy Commodities Auto Sales Inflation Rate
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
5. SAME Demographic New-NORMAL Hits
Entire G-10!??
G-10* Global REAL GDP
*Includes Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K., Japan, U.S.,
Italy, France, Germany & Australia
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
6. Fortunately, the U.S. Enacted the Emerging
Market MARSHALL PLAN!!!
Percent of Nominal Global GDP (in U.S. Dollars) Comprised by
Economies EXCLUDING the G-10 Economies
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
7. GLOBAL GROWTH IS STILL O.K.?!?
Global REAL GDP
G-10 Economies vs. Rest of Global Economy
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
8. What? Real Global Growth Has Accelerated???
Real Global World Product Annualized Real Gross World Product
2011 U.S. Dollars, natural log scale Growth by Decade*
Note: The 00s decade is the annualized growth for 11 years
from 2000 to 2011
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
9. Finding Top-LINE GROWTH?!?
S&P 400 Real Sales Per Share** vs. U.S.
S&P 400 Nominal Sales Per Share vs. Real GDP
U.S. Nominal GDP Annualized Growth by Decade*
Annualized Growth by Decade* ** S&P 400 Sales Per Share Adjusted by GDP Price Deflator Index
* The 2000s decade is actually from 1999Q4 to 2012Q2 * The 2000s decade is actually from 1999Q4 to 2012Q2
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
10. Earnings Story Is Not Just Margins!!?
Annual Growth in S&P 400 Sales per Share Large Cap (S&P 500) vs. Small Cap (Russell 2000)
Per Share Annual Sales Growth
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
11. What About Europe???
Solution is Growth … Not Austerity
Finally, an “Economic Union”
Moving Euro zone from “Imminent Calamity” to
“Chronic Problem”
Fallout is Slower/No Growth from Euro zone
“Financial” Contagion Unlikely
In 1990, Global Recovery Proceeded Without Japan
Investor Sensitivity is Decaying
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
12. What About CHINA???
China Leading Economic Index vs. China Leading Economic Index vs.
Short-Term Policy Interest Rate** Real Annual M2 Money Growth*
** China CHIBOR 3 month interest rate (six month moving average) NOTE: Annual Real Money Growth (dotted line)
Until 7/2002 and China SHIBOR 3 month interest rate thereafter. LEADING by Six Months
NOTE: Interest Rate LEADS by One Year
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
13. Inflation Story??
Unstoppable Forces Meet Immovable Objects!?!
Inflation Forces Deflation Forces
Massive Newly-Developing Demand Force 30-Year Disinflationary Culture
Excess Liquidity Everywhere Tech-Induced Productivity Surge
Monetary /Fiscal Overkill New-found Global Competition
Pent-Up Demands Impaired Balance Sheets
Improving Balance Sheets Resource/Potential GDP Slack
Government Solutions
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
14. Time to Start Normalizing Monetary Policy!!?!
Nominal GDP Growth vs. Money
Supply Growth*
Fed Funds Rate vs. Business Bank Loans *3-Year Trailing annualized growth rates.
GDP is GNP until 1946. Money Supply is
M1 through 1958 and M2 thereafter.
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
15. Fed Needs to Get Beyond its Crisis Mindset???!
Effective Federal Funds U.S. Excess Bank Reserves
Interest Rate Trillions U.S. Dollars
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
16. Oil? Supply Catching Demand???
Baker Hughes U.S. Crude Oil Rig Count
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
17. What Oil Crisis???
U.S. Oil Production (Mil. Barrels per day) U.S. Net Imports Crude Oil (Mil. Barrels per day)
2011 7.84 2011 8.48
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
18. So … You Like Gold, Huh??!?
Price of S&P 500 Stock Index in Ounces of Gold* Price of Gold Relative to U.S. Treasury Bond* Price of Gold Relative to U.S. House Price*
*Relative Price of S&P 500 divided by Price of Gold. *Price of gold divided by Long-term U.S. Treasury *Price of gold divided by U.S. House Price
Number of Ounces of gold it takes to purchase the Bond Prices. Bond Price set at $100 in December Index. House Price Index is based on the
S&P 500 Stock Price Index. 1962 and then rose or fell each month based on Median New Home Sales Price Index until
Ibbotson’s estimate of price-only return. March 1987 and the Case-Shiller National U.S.
House Price Index thereafter.
Price of Gold Relative to Overall
Number of Hours of Work Required to Price of Gold Relative to Consumer Price Index Commodity Prices*
Purchase an Ounce of Gold* Basket of Consumer Goods and Services *Price of Gold divided by S&P GSCI Spot
*Price of Gold Price divided by the Average
Commodity Price Index.
Hourly Earnings Index.
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
19. Will Bonds Be Bloodied???
Real 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield*
*10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Less Annual Core Consumer Price Inflation Rate
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
20. FEAR Has Been Bond Market’s Best Friend!!?
Real Treasury Bond Yield and CONFIDENCE
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
21. AGING Demographics & the Bond Market?!?
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield
vs. U.S. Labor Force Growth
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
22. U.S. Deficit… More Cyclical Than Structural?!?!
U.S. Federal Deficit/GDP Ratio vs. Detrended Real GDP*
*Detrended by 1965 to 1984 average annualized growth of 3.25%
and by 1985 to 2012 average annualized growth of 2.6%.
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
23. Huh…. Best Post-Recession Stock Market Rally
Ever???!
Post-War Stock Market Rallies Post-War Stock Market Rallies
Cumulative Price-Only Percent Returns Cumulative Percent Price Only Return
From Recession from Recession Low
Low During First 870 Days
NOTE: BOLD Line is the Current Recovery Stock Market Rally
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
24. Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index (Solid)
Confidence and Real Treasury Bond Yield
“DOA” Sectors LEAD Stock MARKET!?!
Real 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield
Year
(10-year yield less core consumer price inflation rate)
year
(Dotted)
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
25. IF INFLATION STAYS LOW…LOTS OF
VALUATION ROOM!?!
U.S. Stock Market Environmental PE Valuation*
*Sum of PE ratio (based on trailing 12-month eps),
10-yr Treasury bond yield and Annual CPI Inflation Rate
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
26. POST-WAR STOCK MARKET STORY!??!
U.S. Stock Market vs. Long-Term Trendline Level Total U.S. Corporate Profits
S&P 500 Stock Price Index (Solid) Actual Level (Solid) vs. Trendline (Dotted)
Trendline Level (Dotted)
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
27. CULTURAL “GLOOM TO GLEE” CYCLE!!?
U.S. Stock Market
Percent Above/Below Long-Term Trendline
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
28. Could A Return To “NORMAL CONFIDENCE”
Double the Stock Market???
Detrended U.S. Stock Market
vs. U.S. Consumer Confidence
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
29. Mania to Mania!!?
New-Era → Mania of OPTIMISM
New-Normal → Mania of PESSIMISM
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
30. A “Confidence-Driven” Secular Bull à la 1950s-
60s!??!
U.S. Stock Market vs. Long-Term Bond Yields*
*Sources: Robert Schiller’s database, Bloomberg.
Natural Log Scale (Dotted)
Natural Log Scale (Solid)
Long-Term Bond Yield*
U.S. Stock Market*
Term
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
31. Stay With Cyclical Stocks?!?
Unemployment Claims vs. Stable/Cyclical
Relative Stock Price Performance*
*Geo-weighted index of stable S&P 500 sectors (consumer staples,
health care, and utilities) relative to index of S&P 500 cyclical sectors
(consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials).
Relative stock price performance of
S&P 500 stable vs. cyclical sectors*
Unemployment Insurance Claims
Moving Average of Initial
Natural Log Scale (Solid)
Natural Log Scale (Dotted)
4-Week
Week
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
32. Wait for the Flow!!!?
Net New Monthly Mutual Fund Cash Flows
Stock Funds Less Bond Funds* vs. Relative Price
Performance of Stocks Over Bonds
*3-Month Moving Average of Monthly Flows
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
33. BUY & “HOLD YOUR NOSE” !!??
Rolling 10-Year Standard Deviations of Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1900 to 2012
Daily Percent Stock Market Changes Shown on a Natural Log Scale
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
34. A Lost Decade?? Hardly!!!
Emerging World Economies’ Real Corporate Profit Per Job*
Nominal U.S. Dollar GDP *Total U.S. corporate profits adjusted for
Percent of U.S. Nominal GDP GDP deflator inflation index and divided by
2000 vs. 2010 nonfarm private payrolls. Shown on a
natural log scale.
Real U.S. Wage Rate*
*U.S. average hourly earnings index divided by
consumer price index.
Shown on a natural log scale.
Inflation-Adjusted Total Global GDP
Real U.S. Dollars
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
35. 2012-2013 Possibilities???
U.S. Economy has a “GEAR YEAR”
Real GDP Rises by 3%ish
U.R. Exhibits “Slow but Steady” Decline
H.H. & Biz Confidence Improve
Housing Market “Pops” a Little
Biz Spend Some of $2 Trillion Cash Hoard
Euro Crisis Mutates from “Imminent Calamity” to
“Chronic Problem”
Emerging World Soft Landing… Accelerates in 2nd Half
U.S. Politics Moves to a “Happier Middle”
Talk of a “New All-Time” Stock Market High
T-Bond Market Gets Drilled
Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012
36. Questions?
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Economic and Financial Market Update – November 2012