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Market Review and Outlook

QE Index and Volume

The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 14.04 points, or 0.14%,
during the week, to close at 10,389.10 points. Market capitalization
decreased by 0.19% to reach QR554.0 billion (bn) as compared to
QR555.0bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed
companies, 22 companies ended the week higher while 18 fell and 2
remained unchanged. Al Ahli Bank (ABQK) was the best performing
stock with a gain of 8.00%; the stock is up 15.71% year-to-date (YTD).
Volume was however fairly thin with 9,358 shares traded. Qatar
Cinema and Film Distribution (QCFS) was the worst performing stock
with a decline of 5.08% on 1,037 shares traded; the stock is down
26.19% YTD.

10,420

20,000,000
10,395.32
10,389.10

10,360

10,371.39

10,366.21

10,300

0
1-Dec

2-Dec

3-Dec

553,978.1

555,026.7

(0.2)

55.7

80.4

(30.7)

22,628

31,836

(28.9)

42

42

0.0

22:18

25:14

–

Market Indices
Close
Total Return
14,843.65
All Share Index
2,583.42
Banks/Financial Svcs.
2,458.63
Industrials
3,380.92
Transportation
1,931.71
Real Estate
1,998.51
Insurance
2,358.94
Telecoms
1,460.90
Consumer
5,980.01
Al Rayan Islamic Index
3,068.07
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance

Value Traded (QR mn)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn)
Volume (mn)
Number of Transactions
Companies Traded
Market Breadth

Regional Indices
Qatar (QE)*
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain

Close
10,389.10
3,013.34
3,939.64
8,243.74
7,764.86
6,769.01
1,197.52

WTD%

MTD%

YTD%

0.1
2.3
2.3
(1.0)
(0.3)
0.6
(0.9)

0.1
2.3
2.3
(1.0)
(0.3)
0.6
(0.9)

24.3
85.7
49.7
21.2
30.8
17.5
12.4

0.6%

MTD%
0.1
0.0
0.5
(0.6)
(0.6)
0.2
(0.3)
0.5
(0.0)
1.2

(0.3%)

Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
152,177.8
71,417.88
112,537.1
448,434.0#
109,394.6
24,224.4
49,644.1

(0.9%) (1.0%)

Kuwait

Qatar

Oman

Dubai

(3.5%)
Abu Dhabi

YTD%
31.2
28.2
26.1
28.7
44.1
24.0
20.1
37.2
28.0
23.3

0.1%

(1.0%)

Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
491.05
865.78
472.83
5,703.79
432.14
248.92
3.34

(30.8)

2.3%

1.5%

The GCC markets remained mixed during the week. Abu Dhabi‟s
benchmark index was the top performer, surging by 2.3% WoW; it is
up 49.7% YTD. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia‟s Tadawul index
retreated by 1.0% WoW.

Chg. %

Saudi Arabia

2.3%

WTD%
0.1
0.0
0.5
(0.6)
(0.6)
0.2
(0.3)
0.5
(0.0)
1.2

Bahrain

4.0%

QE Index

Week ended
Nov 28, 2013
2,290.2

On the other hand, Industries Qatar (IQCD) dragged the index
down by 20.2 points WoW. We note the stock is trading close to
QNBFS Research‟s price target of QR166.29.

Foreign institutions turned bullish for the week with net buying of
QR29.0mn vs. net selling of QR100.1mn in the prior week. Qatari
institutions turned bearish with net selling of QR62.1mn vs. net buying
of QR98.2mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained
bearish for the week with net selling of QR33.0mn vs. QR29.8mn in the
prior week. Qatari retailer investors remained bullish with net buying of
QR65.9mn vs. QR31.1mn the week before.

5-Dec

Week ended
Dec 05, 2013
1,585.0

Market Indicators

Trading volume declined by 30.74% to reach 55.7mn shares vs.
80.4mn shares in the prior week. The number of transaction fell by
28.92% to reach 22,628 transactions versus 31,836 transactions in the
prior week. The Telecoms sector led the trading volume, accounting
for 29.7% of the total.

4-Dec

Volume

Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) was the biggest contributor to the QE
Index’s weekly gain for a second consecutive week. The stock
contributed 33.1 points to the index‟s weekly gain; MARK is up 3.18%
week-over-week (WoW). The stock hit a 52-week high of QR34.15
during Thursday‟s (December 05, 2013) trading session. Vodafone
Qatar (VFQS) was the second biggest contributor adding 10.7 points
and also touched its 52-week high of QR12.09 during Thursday; the
stock has gained 6.76% WoW.

Trading value during the week decreased by 30.79% to reach
QR1.6bn vs. QR2.3bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial
Services led the trading value during the week, accounting for 29.7%
of the total equity trading value.

10,000,000

10,336.50

TTM P/E**

P/B**

Dividend Yield

13.3
17.8
11.0
16.9
17.1
10.6
8.0

1.8
1.2
1.4
2.1
1.2
1.6
0.8

4.4
3.0
4.6
3.6
3.6
3.8
4.0

#

Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of December 4, 2013)

Page 1 of 5
News
Economic News
 Qatar to maintain LNG lead despite US shale gas
revolution – The development of US shale gas extraction to
tap previously inaccessible reserves, the so called US shale
gas revolution, is not proving to be a game changer for Qatar,
according to QNB Group. Fracking techniques, namely the
process of forcing water, chemicals and sand at high pressure
into shale rock deposits to extract high volumes of gas have
been refined only over the last decade to make US shale gas
commercially viable. This has virtually eliminated the need for
the US to import liquefied natural gas (LNG), including from
Qatar. The drop in demand from the US, however, has been
replaced by strong demand from Asia, particularly from Japan
after the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. As a
result, QNB Group expects global LNG demand to remain
strong over the next decade. Qatar is therefore unlikely to lose
its leading role in the global energy market for years to come.
(QNB, Gulf-Times.com)
 Strong LNG sector, fiscal footing to boost Qatar economy
in 2014 – According to a report by the Standard Chartered
Bank (StanChart), Qatar‟s 2014 economic outlook remains
strong due to factors like strengthening debt dynamics and
successful redirecting of LNG exports to Asian markets to offset
market conditions in North America and Europe. StanChart said
while the LNG-sector dynamics are likely to remain healthy and
will underpin the strong fiscal position, the country‟s nonhydrocarbon economy will be the primary growth driver in 2014.
The report said the government‟s commitments on
infrastructure for hosting the FIFA 2022 World Cup and its
longer-term Vision 2030 objectives have resulted in a significant
pick-up in infrastructure investment in 2013 and expects to
continue in 2014. Meanwhile, StanChart said inflation will be a
key challenge for Qatar next year, despite the overall rosy
economic outlook. The bank said that rents are likely to be a
key inflation driver and expects them to begin rising next year.
(Gulf-Times.com)
 QCB issues QR4bn T-bills – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB)
has issued three treasury bills worth QR4bn on December 3,
2013. Total bids stood at QR8.45bn for all three maturities.
Yield on 91-day T-bills declined to 1.20% from 1.28%, while
yield for 182-day T-bills fell to 1.26% from 1.30% and for 273day notes it declined to 1.37% from 1.40%. (QCB)
 AREDC: Qatar residential ROI leads Middle East –
According to a report by Al Asmakh Real Estate Development
Company (AREDC), Qatar‟s residential market offers 6-8%
return on investment (ROI), which is one of the highest in the
Middle East. AREDC said residential property is a prominent
segment in the Qatari realty market and owing to rising
demand, well maintained units get higher returns than those
that are not maintained well. The segment is slated to see
higher rents and sales in the coming quarters. The report also
highlighted that apartment prices rose 5% QoQ in 3Q2013.
(Gulf-Times.com)
 QCCI: Qatar private sector to establish a construction firm
– The Qatar Chamber of Commerce & Industry‟s (QCCI)
Deputy Chairman Mohammed Al Kuwari said the private sector
in Qatar is planning to establish a company with QR2bn capital
to build industrial plants and related projects. The ownership of
this new company will be confined to Qatari businessmen first,
before being listed on the Qatar Stock Exchange. He added
that the chamber has already obtained government approval for
the new venture, which will be announced within two months.
(Zawya)

Market & Corporate News
 CBQK’s shareholders approve 25% non-Qatari ownership –
The Commercial Bank of Qatar‟s (CBQK) shareholders have
approved a 25% ownership for non-Qatari investors in the
bank‟s share capital. The shareholders have also approved the
issue of QR2bn as additional Tier 1 capital. (Bloomberg)
 QNCD to expand capacity by 7,500 tons per day – As
expected, Qatar National Cement Company (QNCD) has
decided to expand its capacity. The company will add another
7,500 tons per day taking its total clinker capacity to ~18,500
tons per day after the expansion. QNCD plans to sign a
contract with global company FLSmidth in this regard. QNCD
has already signed a letter of intent (LoI) with FLSmidth and the
contract is expected to be signed next month. The company
expects to invest QR1.2bn for completing this facility. The new
facility will be operational in 24 months after the signing of the
contract (and the start of construction). The expansion is in line
with our estimates and we expect EPS to jump from QR8.45 in
2012 to QR12.81 in 2016e. We also expect the firm to
announce a cash dividend of QR6.00 per share with FY2013
results (dividend yield of 5.74%). In our view, QNCD‟s focus on
Qatar makes it one of the pure infrastructure/construction plays
on the Qatar growth story; we recommend an Accumulate
rating with a target price of QR116.25. (QNBFS Research,
Peninsula Qatar)
 QNNS ended its 6-month buyback period – Milaha (QNNS)
announced the completion of its six-month buyback period on
November 30, 2013 as per the Qatar Financial Markets
Authority‟s regulations. QNNS has bought back 908,725 shares
that accounted for 0.8% of its total outstanding shares. (QE)
 MARK inches closer to acquire IBB – Masraf Al Rayan
(MARK) and Islamic Bank of Britain (IBB) have announced that
they have reached an agreement on the terms of a
recommended cash offer by Al Rayan (UK) Limited, a wholly
owned subsidiary of MARK for the entire issued and to be
issued share capital of IBB. Earlier on September 30, 2013,
MARK had offered £24.1mn for the acquisition, with each IBB
shareholder entitled to receive 0.53 pence in cash for every IBB
share. (Peninsula Qatar)
 Moody’s affirms DHBK’s currency deposit ratings at
A2/Prime-1 – Moody‟s has affirmed Doha Bank‟s (DHBK)
global foreign and local currency deposit ratings at “A2/Prime1”. Moody's has also affirmed DHBK‟s standalone bank
financial strength rating (BFSR) at “D+”. The outlook on all
these ratings remains Stable. (Moody‟s press release)
 ORDS awards tower deployments contract to Digicel –
Ooredoo (ORDS) has awarded a contract to deploy telecoms
towers in its Myanmar subsidiary to a consortium lead by the
Digicel Group. The consortium which is made up of Digicel
Group, YSH Finance and First Myanmar Investment, will be
amongst the first telecoms tower companies to begin
construction in Myanmar and will accept multi-tenancy
agreements. Earlier, Digicel failed to secure a mobile operating
license on its own, having lost out to Ooredoo and Telenor.
(Bloomberg)

Page 2 of 5
Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers

Top 5 Decliners
0.0%

12.0%

8.0%

8.0%

-1.4%

-1.6%

-2.0%
6.8%

-2.8%
4.1%

3.9%

4.0%

3.4%

-4.0%

-4.0%

-5.1%
0.0%
Al Ahli Bank

Vodafone
Qatar

Widam Food
Islamic
Co.
Holding Group

Qatari
Investors
Group

Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)

Qatar Cinema Qatar General
& Film
Insurance &
Distribution
Reinsurance

Milaha

Qatar
Salam
Electricity and International
Water
Investment

Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)

Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million)

Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)

300.0

200.0

-6.0%

24.0

16.4

189.1

16.0
151.2

140.7
122.3
102.8

100.0

8.0

6.7

5.7

4.5

0.0
Masraf Al
Rayan

Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)

Barwa Real
Estate

Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)

Qatari
Investors
Group

Vodafone
Qatar

Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)

Mazaya Qatar

Barwa Real
Estate

Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)

Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded

12.93%

17.40%

(4)

11.10%

15.32%

Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)

Non-Qatari

452

80%

448
25.17%

29.09%

46.58%

60%

Masraf Al
Rayan

0.0
Vodafone
Qatar

100%

4.1

42.42%

40%

4

20%

Qatari

1,133
1,137

0%

Buy

Sell

Qatari Individuals

Qatari Institutions

Non-Qatari Individuals

Non-Qatari Institutions

Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)

(200)

-

200
Net Investment

400

600
Total Sold

800

1,000

1,200

Total Bought

Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)

Page 3 of 5
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX

Source: Bloomberg

The QE Index ended last week on a higher note, but the overall movement was predominately sideways. The index successfully defended the support near
the 10,300.0 psychological level as it rebounded and witnessed a brief rally which ended just short of the 10,400.0 mark, thus bringing relief for the bulls.
However, the index continues to remain in consolidation mode and is currently oscillating in the range of 10,300.0-10,400.0. Only a sustained move above
or below these levels may decide the next direction of the index. The 10,400.0-10,450.0 resistance band remains a major hurdle for the index, which it must
surpass on a closing basis in order to confirm its next upmove. If the index manages to clear this band, bulls may take control and may advance to test
10,500.0-10,550.0. On the flip side, the 10,300.0 level may act as a key support for the index. Any weakness below this level may trigger selling pressure
and may drag the index to test 10,220.0, which is in proximity to the 21-day moving average. We believe as long as the index holds its support near
10,300.0, the uptrend may remain intact. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators are providing mixed signals. Thus, traders may adopt a bullish approach
but must keep a close watch on the support levels.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.

Page 4 of 5
Price % Change 5(Dec 5)
Day

Company Name

170.00

Qatar National Bank

% Change
Monthly

(1.16)

(1.16)

Market Cap.
QR Million

TTM P/E

P/B

Div. Yield

118,954

12.9

2.4

3.5

Qatar Islamic Bank

70.00

0.29

0.29

16,541

15.3

1.4

5.4

Commercial Bank of Qatar

69.20

0.58

0.58

17,123

9.8

1.2

8.7

Doha Bank

56.50

1.25

1.25

14,598

9.9

1.6

7.3

Al Ahli Bank

56.70

8.00

8.00

7,205

13.9

2.1

5.3

Qatar International Islamic Bank

60.70

1.00

1.00

9,188

12.8

1.8

5.8

Masraf Al Rayan

34.05

3.18

3.18

25,538

15.3

2.5

2.9

Al Khaliji Bank

19.75

(1.25)

(1.25)

7,110

13.4

1.3

5.1

National Leasing

31.30

0.00

0.00

1,549

13.3

1.2

6.4

Dlala Holding

21.92

1.25

1.25

487

N/M

2.2

N/A

Qatar & Oman Investment

12.83

0.55

0.55

404

26.9

1.2

3.9

Islamic Holding Group

41.15

3.91

3.91

165

22.1

2.9

2.7

218,861

Banking and Financial Services
Zad Holding

67.90

1.65

1.65

888

9.0

0.7

5.9

Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices

14.87

1.36

1.36

172

N/M

0.9

N/A

Salam International Investment

12.29

(1.36)

(1.36)

1,405

10.9

0.8

5.7

Medicare Group

53.40

(0.19)

(0.19)

1,503

24.4

1.9

3.4

Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution

42.00

(5.08)

(5.08)

240

32.1

1.7

4.8

286.90

(0.21)

(0.21)

18,640

15.6

3.1

3.5

50.80

4.10

4.10

914

15.2

3.8

7.9

136.00

0.74

0.74

2,720

18.7

2.2

5.9

Qatar Fuel
Qatar Meat and Livestock
Al Meera Consumer Goods

26,482

Consumer Goods and Services
(0.39)

(0.39)

2,004

9.5

1.5

5.9

Qatar National Cement

105.00

50.60

1.94

1.94

5,156

12.1

2.1

5.7

Industries Qatar

166.10

(1.25)

(1.25)

100,491

12.4

3.1

4.7

3.40

3.40

5,097

21.9

2.4

1.8

166.10

(1.60)

(1.60)

16,610

11.0

2.9

4.4

Mannai Corp.

87.10

(0.91)

(0.91)

3,973

8.7

1.7

5.5

Aamal

15.00

(0.13)

(0.13)

9,000

14.3

1.4

N/A

Gulf International Services

58.70

0.17

0.17

8,727

14.4

3.0

2.6

Qatar Industrial Manufacturing

41.00

Qatari Investors Group
Qatar Electricity and Water

151,058

Industrials
Qatar Insurance

67.00

0.75

0.75

8,605

10.5

1.8

3.0

Doha Insurance

25.20

(1.18)

(1.18)

649

11.5

1.3

3.6

Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance

48.00

(4.00)

(4.00)

2,767

3.2

0.8

1.8

Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance

39.00

0.00

0.00

666

13.9

1.1

2.1

Qatar Islamic Insurance

58.90

1.90

1.90

884

13.9

3.2

5.9

13,570

Insurance
United Development

23.32

(0.26)

(0.26)

7,864

9.6

0.7

4.3

Barwa Real Estate

30.25

0.33

0.33

11,771

17.2

0.9

5.0

Ezdan Real Estate

17.36

(0.40)

(0.40)

46,047

N/M

1.6

0.7

Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development

11.77

1.47

1.47

1,177

17.8

1.1

5.1

66,859

Real Estate
135.50

(0.66)

(0.66)

43,403

16.5

1.8

3.7

11.85

6.76

6.76

10,018

N/M

1.7

N/A

Qatar Navigation (Milaha)

87.00

(2.79)

(2.79)

9,964

10.2

0.8

4.3

Gulf Warehousing

40.95

(0.12)

(0.12)

1,948

19.5

2.5

N/A

Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
Transportation

21.10

1.20

1.20

11,816

15.5

3.3

4.7

Qatar Telecom
Vodafone Qatar

53,421

Telecoms

23,727

Qatar Exchange

553,978

Source: Bloomberg

Contacts

Saugata Sarkar

Ahmed M. Shehada

Keith Whitney

Sahbi Kasraoui

Head of Research

Head of Trading

Head of Sales

Manager - HNWI

Tel: (+974) 4476 6534

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535

Tel: (+974) 4476 6533

Tel: (+974) 4476 6544

saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa

ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa

keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa

sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa

QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.

Page 5 of 5

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Weekly Market Report

  • 1. Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 14.04 points, or 0.14%, during the week, to close at 10,389.10 points. Market capitalization decreased by 0.19% to reach QR554.0 billion (bn) as compared to QR555.0bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 22 companies ended the week higher while 18 fell and 2 remained unchanged. Al Ahli Bank (ABQK) was the best performing stock with a gain of 8.00%; the stock is up 15.71% year-to-date (YTD). Volume was however fairly thin with 9,358 shares traded. Qatar Cinema and Film Distribution (QCFS) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 5.08% on 1,037 shares traded; the stock is down 26.19% YTD. 10,420 20,000,000 10,395.32 10,389.10 10,360 10,371.39 10,366.21 10,300 0 1-Dec 2-Dec 3-Dec 553,978.1 555,026.7 (0.2) 55.7 80.4 (30.7) 22,628 31,836 (28.9) 42 42 0.0 22:18 25:14 – Market Indices Close Total Return 14,843.65 All Share Index 2,583.42 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,458.63 Industrials 3,380.92 Transportation 1,931.71 Real Estate 1,998.51 Insurance 2,358.94 Telecoms 1,460.90 Consumer 5,980.01 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,068.07 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth Regional Indices Qatar (QE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman Bahrain Close 10,389.10 3,013.34 3,939.64 8,243.74 7,764.86 6,769.01 1,197.52 WTD% MTD% YTD% 0.1 2.3 2.3 (1.0) (0.3) 0.6 (0.9) 0.1 2.3 2.3 (1.0) (0.3) 0.6 (0.9) 24.3 85.7 49.7 21.2 30.8 17.5 12.4 0.6% MTD% 0.1 0.0 0.5 (0.6) (0.6) 0.2 (0.3) 0.5 (0.0) 1.2 (0.3%) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 152,177.8 71,417.88 112,537.1 448,434.0# 109,394.6 24,224.4 49,644.1 (0.9%) (1.0%) Kuwait Qatar Oman Dubai (3.5%) Abu Dhabi YTD% 31.2 28.2 26.1 28.7 44.1 24.0 20.1 37.2 28.0 23.3 0.1% (1.0%) Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) 491.05 865.78 472.83 5,703.79 432.14 248.92 3.34 (30.8) 2.3% 1.5% The GCC markets remained mixed during the week. Abu Dhabi‟s benchmark index was the top performer, surging by 2.3% WoW; it is up 49.7% YTD. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia‟s Tadawul index retreated by 1.0% WoW. Chg. % Saudi Arabia 2.3% WTD% 0.1 0.0 0.5 (0.6) (0.6) 0.2 (0.3) 0.5 (0.0) 1.2 Bahrain 4.0% QE Index Week ended Nov 28, 2013 2,290.2 On the other hand, Industries Qatar (IQCD) dragged the index down by 20.2 points WoW. We note the stock is trading close to QNBFS Research‟s price target of QR166.29. Foreign institutions turned bullish for the week with net buying of QR29.0mn vs. net selling of QR100.1mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bearish with net selling of QR62.1mn vs. net buying of QR98.2mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR33.0mn vs. QR29.8mn in the prior week. Qatari retailer investors remained bullish with net buying of QR65.9mn vs. QR31.1mn the week before. 5-Dec Week ended Dec 05, 2013 1,585.0 Market Indicators Trading volume declined by 30.74% to reach 55.7mn shares vs. 80.4mn shares in the prior week. The number of transaction fell by 28.92% to reach 22,628 transactions versus 31,836 transactions in the prior week. The Telecoms sector led the trading volume, accounting for 29.7% of the total. 4-Dec Volume Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) was the biggest contributor to the QE Index’s weekly gain for a second consecutive week. The stock contributed 33.1 points to the index‟s weekly gain; MARK is up 3.18% week-over-week (WoW). The stock hit a 52-week high of QR34.15 during Thursday‟s (December 05, 2013) trading session. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the second biggest contributor adding 10.7 points and also touched its 52-week high of QR12.09 during Thursday; the stock has gained 6.76% WoW. Trading value during the week decreased by 30.79% to reach QR1.6bn vs. QR2.3bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services led the trading value during the week, accounting for 29.7% of the total equity trading value. 10,000,000 10,336.50 TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield 13.3 17.8 11.0 16.9 17.1 10.6 8.0 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 4.4 3.0 4.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of December 4, 2013) Page 1 of 5
  • 2. News Economic News  Qatar to maintain LNG lead despite US shale gas revolution – The development of US shale gas extraction to tap previously inaccessible reserves, the so called US shale gas revolution, is not proving to be a game changer for Qatar, according to QNB Group. Fracking techniques, namely the process of forcing water, chemicals and sand at high pressure into shale rock deposits to extract high volumes of gas have been refined only over the last decade to make US shale gas commercially viable. This has virtually eliminated the need for the US to import liquefied natural gas (LNG), including from Qatar. The drop in demand from the US, however, has been replaced by strong demand from Asia, particularly from Japan after the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. As a result, QNB Group expects global LNG demand to remain strong over the next decade. Qatar is therefore unlikely to lose its leading role in the global energy market for years to come. (QNB, Gulf-Times.com)  Strong LNG sector, fiscal footing to boost Qatar economy in 2014 – According to a report by the Standard Chartered Bank (StanChart), Qatar‟s 2014 economic outlook remains strong due to factors like strengthening debt dynamics and successful redirecting of LNG exports to Asian markets to offset market conditions in North America and Europe. StanChart said while the LNG-sector dynamics are likely to remain healthy and will underpin the strong fiscal position, the country‟s nonhydrocarbon economy will be the primary growth driver in 2014. The report said the government‟s commitments on infrastructure for hosting the FIFA 2022 World Cup and its longer-term Vision 2030 objectives have resulted in a significant pick-up in infrastructure investment in 2013 and expects to continue in 2014. Meanwhile, StanChart said inflation will be a key challenge for Qatar next year, despite the overall rosy economic outlook. The bank said that rents are likely to be a key inflation driver and expects them to begin rising next year. (Gulf-Times.com)  QCB issues QR4bn T-bills – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has issued three treasury bills worth QR4bn on December 3, 2013. Total bids stood at QR8.45bn for all three maturities. Yield on 91-day T-bills declined to 1.20% from 1.28%, while yield for 182-day T-bills fell to 1.26% from 1.30% and for 273day notes it declined to 1.37% from 1.40%. (QCB)  AREDC: Qatar residential ROI leads Middle East – According to a report by Al Asmakh Real Estate Development Company (AREDC), Qatar‟s residential market offers 6-8% return on investment (ROI), which is one of the highest in the Middle East. AREDC said residential property is a prominent segment in the Qatari realty market and owing to rising demand, well maintained units get higher returns than those that are not maintained well. The segment is slated to see higher rents and sales in the coming quarters. The report also highlighted that apartment prices rose 5% QoQ in 3Q2013. (Gulf-Times.com)  QCCI: Qatar private sector to establish a construction firm – The Qatar Chamber of Commerce & Industry‟s (QCCI) Deputy Chairman Mohammed Al Kuwari said the private sector in Qatar is planning to establish a company with QR2bn capital to build industrial plants and related projects. The ownership of this new company will be confined to Qatari businessmen first, before being listed on the Qatar Stock Exchange. He added that the chamber has already obtained government approval for the new venture, which will be announced within two months. (Zawya) Market & Corporate News  CBQK’s shareholders approve 25% non-Qatari ownership – The Commercial Bank of Qatar‟s (CBQK) shareholders have approved a 25% ownership for non-Qatari investors in the bank‟s share capital. The shareholders have also approved the issue of QR2bn as additional Tier 1 capital. (Bloomberg)  QNCD to expand capacity by 7,500 tons per day – As expected, Qatar National Cement Company (QNCD) has decided to expand its capacity. The company will add another 7,500 tons per day taking its total clinker capacity to ~18,500 tons per day after the expansion. QNCD plans to sign a contract with global company FLSmidth in this regard. QNCD has already signed a letter of intent (LoI) with FLSmidth and the contract is expected to be signed next month. The company expects to invest QR1.2bn for completing this facility. The new facility will be operational in 24 months after the signing of the contract (and the start of construction). The expansion is in line with our estimates and we expect EPS to jump from QR8.45 in 2012 to QR12.81 in 2016e. We also expect the firm to announce a cash dividend of QR6.00 per share with FY2013 results (dividend yield of 5.74%). In our view, QNCD‟s focus on Qatar makes it one of the pure infrastructure/construction plays on the Qatar growth story; we recommend an Accumulate rating with a target price of QR116.25. (QNBFS Research, Peninsula Qatar)  QNNS ended its 6-month buyback period – Milaha (QNNS) announced the completion of its six-month buyback period on November 30, 2013 as per the Qatar Financial Markets Authority‟s regulations. QNNS has bought back 908,725 shares that accounted for 0.8% of its total outstanding shares. (QE)  MARK inches closer to acquire IBB – Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Islamic Bank of Britain (IBB) have announced that they have reached an agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer by Al Rayan (UK) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of MARK for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of IBB. Earlier on September 30, 2013, MARK had offered £24.1mn for the acquisition, with each IBB shareholder entitled to receive 0.53 pence in cash for every IBB share. (Peninsula Qatar)  Moody’s affirms DHBK’s currency deposit ratings at A2/Prime-1 – Moody‟s has affirmed Doha Bank‟s (DHBK) global foreign and local currency deposit ratings at “A2/Prime1”. Moody's has also affirmed DHBK‟s standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR) at “D+”. The outlook on all these ratings remains Stable. (Moody‟s press release)  ORDS awards tower deployments contract to Digicel – Ooredoo (ORDS) has awarded a contract to deploy telecoms towers in its Myanmar subsidiary to a consortium lead by the Digicel Group. The consortium which is made up of Digicel Group, YSH Finance and First Myanmar Investment, will be amongst the first telecoms tower companies to begin construction in Myanmar and will accept multi-tenancy agreements. Earlier, Digicel failed to secure a mobile operating license on its own, having lost out to Ooredoo and Telenor. (Bloomberg) Page 2 of 5
  • 3. Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners 0.0% 12.0% 8.0% 8.0% -1.4% -1.6% -2.0% 6.8% -2.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% -4.0% -4.0% -5.1% 0.0% Al Ahli Bank Vodafone Qatar Widam Food Islamic Co. Holding Group Qatari Investors Group Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Qatar Cinema Qatar General & Film Insurance & Distribution Reinsurance Milaha Qatar Salam Electricity and International Water Investment Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 300.0 200.0 -6.0% 24.0 16.4 189.1 16.0 151.2 140.7 122.3 102.8 100.0 8.0 6.7 5.7 4.5 0.0 Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Barwa Real Estate Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Qatari Investors Group Vodafone Qatar Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Mazaya Qatar Barwa Real Estate Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 12.93% 17.40% (4) 11.10% 15.32% Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Non-Qatari 452 80% 448 25.17% 29.09% 46.58% 60% Masraf Al Rayan 0.0 Vodafone Qatar 100% 4.1 42.42% 40% 4 20% Qatari 1,133 1,137 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) (200) - 200 Net Investment 400 600 Total Sold 800 1,000 1,200 Total Bought Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Page 3 of 5
  • 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index ended last week on a higher note, but the overall movement was predominately sideways. The index successfully defended the support near the 10,300.0 psychological level as it rebounded and witnessed a brief rally which ended just short of the 10,400.0 mark, thus bringing relief for the bulls. However, the index continues to remain in consolidation mode and is currently oscillating in the range of 10,300.0-10,400.0. Only a sustained move above or below these levels may decide the next direction of the index. The 10,400.0-10,450.0 resistance band remains a major hurdle for the index, which it must surpass on a closing basis in order to confirm its next upmove. If the index manages to clear this band, bulls may take control and may advance to test 10,500.0-10,550.0. On the flip side, the 10,300.0 level may act as a key support for the index. Any weakness below this level may trigger selling pressure and may drag the index to test 10,220.0, which is in proximity to the 21-day moving average. We believe as long as the index holds its support near 10,300.0, the uptrend may remain intact. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators are providing mixed signals. Thus, traders may adopt a bullish approach but must keep a close watch on the support levels. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 5
  • 5. Price % Change 5(Dec 5) Day Company Name 170.00 Qatar National Bank % Change Monthly (1.16) (1.16) Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield 118,954 12.9 2.4 3.5 Qatar Islamic Bank 70.00 0.29 0.29 16,541 15.3 1.4 5.4 Commercial Bank of Qatar 69.20 0.58 0.58 17,123 9.8 1.2 8.7 Doha Bank 56.50 1.25 1.25 14,598 9.9 1.6 7.3 Al Ahli Bank 56.70 8.00 8.00 7,205 13.9 2.1 5.3 Qatar International Islamic Bank 60.70 1.00 1.00 9,188 12.8 1.8 5.8 Masraf Al Rayan 34.05 3.18 3.18 25,538 15.3 2.5 2.9 Al Khaliji Bank 19.75 (1.25) (1.25) 7,110 13.4 1.3 5.1 National Leasing 31.30 0.00 0.00 1,549 13.3 1.2 6.4 Dlala Holding 21.92 1.25 1.25 487 N/M 2.2 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.83 0.55 0.55 404 26.9 1.2 3.9 Islamic Holding Group 41.15 3.91 3.91 165 22.1 2.9 2.7 218,861 Banking and Financial Services Zad Holding 67.90 1.65 1.65 888 9.0 0.7 5.9 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.87 1.36 1.36 172 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 12.29 (1.36) (1.36) 1,405 10.9 0.8 5.7 Medicare Group 53.40 (0.19) (0.19) 1,503 24.4 1.9 3.4 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 42.00 (5.08) (5.08) 240 32.1 1.7 4.8 286.90 (0.21) (0.21) 18,640 15.6 3.1 3.5 50.80 4.10 4.10 914 15.2 3.8 7.9 136.00 0.74 0.74 2,720 18.7 2.2 5.9 Qatar Fuel Qatar Meat and Livestock Al Meera Consumer Goods 26,482 Consumer Goods and Services (0.39) (0.39) 2,004 9.5 1.5 5.9 Qatar National Cement 105.00 50.60 1.94 1.94 5,156 12.1 2.1 5.7 Industries Qatar 166.10 (1.25) (1.25) 100,491 12.4 3.1 4.7 3.40 3.40 5,097 21.9 2.4 1.8 166.10 (1.60) (1.60) 16,610 11.0 2.9 4.4 Mannai Corp. 87.10 (0.91) (0.91) 3,973 8.7 1.7 5.5 Aamal 15.00 (0.13) (0.13) 9,000 14.3 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 58.70 0.17 0.17 8,727 14.4 3.0 2.6 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 41.00 Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water 151,058 Industrials Qatar Insurance 67.00 0.75 0.75 8,605 10.5 1.8 3.0 Doha Insurance 25.20 (1.18) (1.18) 649 11.5 1.3 3.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 48.00 (4.00) (4.00) 2,767 3.2 0.8 1.8 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 39.00 0.00 0.00 666 13.9 1.1 2.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 58.90 1.90 1.90 884 13.9 3.2 5.9 13,570 Insurance United Development 23.32 (0.26) (0.26) 7,864 9.6 0.7 4.3 Barwa Real Estate 30.25 0.33 0.33 11,771 17.2 0.9 5.0 Ezdan Real Estate 17.36 (0.40) (0.40) 46,047 N/M 1.6 0.7 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.77 1.47 1.47 1,177 17.8 1.1 5.1 66,859 Real Estate 135.50 (0.66) (0.66) 43,403 16.5 1.8 3.7 11.85 6.76 6.76 10,018 N/M 1.7 N/A Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 87.00 (2.79) (2.79) 9,964 10.2 0.8 4.3 Gulf Warehousing 40.95 (0.12) (0.12) 1,948 19.5 2.5 N/A Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Transportation 21.10 1.20 1.20 11,816 15.5 3.3 4.7 Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar 53,421 Telecoms 23,727 Qatar Exchange 553,978 Source: Bloomberg Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5