September 8, 2011 presentation on long-term water supply planning, Urban Water Management Plans, and San Diego County's local water resources.

1. San Diego County Water Authority
2010 Urban Water
Management Plan
l
Kelley Gage
Senior Water Resources Specialist
September 8, 2011
1

2. Water Authority’s 2010 UWMP
Water Authority’s 2010 UWMP
 Update required by law every 5 years; purpose and
importance has grown since first required 25 years
ago
 Includes elements of drought management planning
 Official Water Authority policy document on supply
and demand management planning for the region
 Utilized as supporting document in preparation of
water supply assessments/verifications under SB 610
& 221
 Required to be eligible to receive funding or drought
assistance from state
 Foundation document for 2012 Facilities Master Plan
2

3. 2010 Pl M i El
2010 Plan Main Elements
Water Use Water
Demand Water Scenario
Efficiency Resource
Forecast Supplies Planning
Target Mix
Econometric Process to
Water Resource
Model
M d l R t il
Retail manage
Authority mix to meet
utilizing Compliance supply
and member demands in
SANDAG with SBX7-7: uncertainties
agency normal and
Regional 20% savings associated
verifiable dry water
Growth by 2020 with
supplies
l years
Forecast resource mix
3 3

4. SBX7 7 C li
SBX7‐7 Compliance
q pp
 Requires retail water suppliers to achieve a 20%
reduction in urban per capita water use by 2020
 Retail compliance can be achieved through a
combination of recycled water supplies and additional
b f l d l d dd l
conservation savings
 Requires wholesale water agencies to include in
their UWMPs discussions of programs they intend
to implement to support water demand reduction
p pp
goals
4

5. Normal Year Baseline Demand
Normal Year Baseline Demand
Forecast with Future Conservation (AF)
1,000
TAF)
900
emand (T
800
Total De
700
600
2020 2025 2030 2035
Baseline Demand without Price Effect Baseline Demand with Price Effect SBx 7‐7 Compliance Demand
5

6. W t A th it P j t d S li
Water Authority Projected Supplies
(Verifiable)
400
350
300 Carlsbad Seawater
TAF
Desalination (online
250 2016)
200 Canal Lining Projects
150
100 IID Water Transfer
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
6

7. M b A P j t dS li
Member Agency Projected Supplies
(Verifiable)
140
120
100
80
Recycled Water
60
Groundwater
40 Surface Water
20
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Existing
7

8. Development of Projected Water
Development of Projected Water
Resources Mix
Member Retail
Agency Local Compliance
Supplies
S li SBX7-7 S i
SBX7 7 Savings
“Verifiable” Targets
Projected
j
Resource
Mixes
SDCWA
MWD Supplies Supplies
(
(Normal and
Allocation Years) (QSA, Carlsbad
Desal)
8

9. Normal Water Year Assessment (2030)
Normal Water Year Assessment (2030)
(Verifiable Supplies)
Demands 753 TAF
No shortages 800 MWD
anticipated if: 700
• Supplies are
pp 600 292 TAF
developed as planned Carlsbad
by MWD, Water 500 Seawater
Authority and 56 TAF Desalination
400
member agencies 124 TAF
300 Member
• Member agencies
Agency
achieve SBX7 7
SBX7-7 200
Local
savings targets 280 TAF
100 Supplies
0 QSA
2030 Projected Transfer
Normal Year Supplies
9

10. Single Dry Year Water Assessment (2030)
Single Dry Year Water Assessment (2030)
(Verifiable Supplies)
Demands 804 TAF MWD
No shortages 900
anticipated if: 800
• Supplies are
pp 700
developed as planned Regional
600 375 TAF
Seawater
by MWD, Water
500 Desalination
Authority and (Carlsbad)
member agencies 400 56 TAF
92 TAF Member
• Member agencies 300 Agency
achieve SBX7 7
SBX7-7 200 Local
savings targets 152 TAF Supplies
100
QSA
0 Transfer
2030 Projected Dry Year Supplies
10

11. Multiple Dry Year Assessment (Supply
Multiple Dry Year Assessment (Supply
Allocations) 12 TAF Shortage*
900,000 Potential
Potential shortages 800,000 Shortage*
in some years 700,000
Carryover
y
• Mitigated through 600,000 Storage
carryover storage and 500,000
shortage
g MWD
400,000
400 000 Allocation
All i
management actions
300,000 (P.R.)
Member
200,000
,
Agency
100,000 Supplies
0 Water
Authority
2026 2027 2028 Supplies
11

12. Scenario Planning – Managing an
Scenario Planning – Managing an
Uncertain Future
Growth SWP Reliability Recurring
Droughts
Local Projects Climate Change
Development Risk
12

13. M j S i S i Pl i P
Major Steps in Scenario Planning Process
Projected
j Uncertainty
y Potential Key Tracking
y g
Resources Scenarios Strategies Metrics
Mix • Based on • Qualitative • Metrics to track
• Develop in critical and implementation
coordination uncertainties
t i ti quantitative
tit ti of resource mix
f i
with member • Risk • Manage and potential
agencies assessment of uncertainties need for
resources mix • Fill potential
p strategies
• Identify “supply gap” • Avoid over
“supply gap” investment
13

14. 2010 Pl
2010 Plan – S i Pl i
Scenario Planning
 Evaluated 6 scenarios Scenario 4: Limited MWD, Water Authority
 Developed based on
and Member Agency Local Supplies
uncertainties 1000
 Quantitative and 900 Gap
qualitative 800
Carryover
TAF
 Identified potential 700
Storage
supply gap 600
MWD
 50 – 120 TAF 500 (allocations)
 Identified strategies to 400 S
SBX7-7
300 Savings
fill gap
200 Local Supply
 Additional planned (2009 levels)
projects
j t 100
QSA
0
2030 (dry year) 14

15. 2010 Pl
2010 Plan ‐ A hi i R li bili
Achieving Reliability
Continue to explore
Implement diverse water
development of additional
resource mix
planned projects
Supply Reliability
Retail
R t il compliance with
li ith
Adaptive management
SBX7-7 conservation
through Scenario Planning
target
15