Combined impact of climate change and hydropower development on flows of the 3S basin

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Piman, T., Cochrane, T.A. and Arias, M. E. (2012) Combined Impact of Climate Change and Hydropower Development on Flows of the Sre Kong, Se San and Sre Pok Rivers in the Mekong Basin. IWA (International Water Association) World Congress on Water, Climate and Energy. Dublin, Ireland, 13-18 May 2012.

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Combined impact of climate change and hydropower development on flows of the 3S basin

  1. 1. Combined Impact of Climate Change and Hydropower Developmenton Flows of the Sekong, Sesan and Srepok (3S) Rivers LOGOin the Mekong BasinDr. Thanapon Piman, Dr. Tom Cochrane and Mauricio AriasUniversity of CanterburyDepartment of Civil and Natural Resources EngineeringIWA World Congress on Water, Climate and Energy 201213-18 May 2012, Dublin, Ireland 1
  2. 2. 3S Basin Driven by “tropical monsoon”: Complex hydrology A transboundary river basin in Lao PDR, Cambodia and Viet Nam Hydropower development is accelerating: Energy demands An important contribution of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services: fish, habitats, and migration routes About 500,000 people are highly depend on river flows, natural resources and ecosystem services 2
  3. 3. MethodologyIssues Model engine Outputs ECHAM4 IPCC emission scenarios Global Circulation Model A2 and B2 Climate change - Projected rainfall, temp, wind PRECIS speed, solar radiation Downscaling Model Resolution from ∼318 x 318 km was downscaled to ∼22 x 22 km River flows SWAT Simulated flows at the Hydrological Model dam sites Hydropower HEC-ResSim Regulated flows development Reservoir Operation Model and operation Energy production 3
  4. 4. Simulated scenarios Baseline Climate change Hydropower CC+HD scenario scenarios development Scenarios scenarios•Observed climate •A2 and B2 Scenarios •Definite future and •All dams with A2 All dams scenarios and B2 scenarios•1986-2005 •2010-2049 •1986-2005 •2010-2049•No dams •No dams 4
  5. 5. Simulated scenarios A2 compared with scenario B2: Lao PDR Lao PDR •higher CO2 concentrations •a larger human population •greater energy consumption A2 •more change in land use •scarcer resources B2 •less diverse applications of technologyClimate change Definite future All damsscenarios Hydropower development scenarios 5
  6. 6. Key questions from the study• How does climate change affect rainfall patterns?• Which has the greatest effect on downstream flow changes: climate change or hydropower development?• Does the effect of climate change cancel the effect of hydropower development?• How does climate change affect energy production and hydropower operation? 6
  7. 7. Answer 1 % Change of annual rainfall from baselineSpatial analysis showsthat climate changeimpact annual rainfallpatterns in 3S sub-basins.%change frombaseline in most sub-basins varies ±20% A2 scenario B2 scenario 7
  8. 8. Answer 2 700049 ND-BL: 1986-2005 6000 ND-A2: 2010-2049 s ) 3 / ND-B2: 2010-2049 5000 Full hydropower development coupled with energy focused 4000 operation in the 3S Rivers system has the greatest effect on 3000 downstream flow changes. 2000 m A w h n v a g o y r e t ( f l Outlet: dry season flows increase by 95.7% and wet season 1000 flows decrease Jun Jul 25Sep Octfrom the baseline condition 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May by Aug % Nov Dec 7000 7000 ND-BL: 1986-2005 DMST-B2: 2010-2049 ND-BL: 1986-2005 6000 DF-BL: 1986-2005 6000 ND-A2: 2010-2049 s s ) ) 3 / DMST-BL: 1986-2005 3 / ND-B2: 2010-2049 5000 5000 4000 4000 A2 Full HP development 3000 3000 B2 2000 2000 m m A w w A h n h n y o a v g y o g a v r e r e t ( f ( f t l l 1000 1000 Definite future 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7000 8
  9. 9. 2000 Answer 3 m w A h n y o g a v r e ( f t l 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7000The impact of climate change is 6000 ND-BL: 1986-2005 DMST-A2: 2010-2049low compared to redistributed DMST-B2: 2010-2049 s )flows from the wet to dry 3/ 5000season by hydropower 4000operation. Full HP development+ A2 climate change 3000Climate change will notcancel out the flow alterations 2000 m w A h ninduced by hydropower y o g a v r e ( f t l 1000 Full HP development+development in the 3S Basin. B2 climate change 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9
  10. 10. Answer 4The A2 and B2 climate change 160 18,000 ND-BL:1986-2005 136 A2 CCscenarios have little impact on 16,000 ND-A2: 127 2010-2049 126 14,000energy generation. 120 ND-B2: 2010-2049 s ) 3/ B2 CC 12,000Climate change will significantly 10,000 80 66 Baselineincrease the magnitude and 8,000frequency of extreme flood and 6,000 40 m W w A 4,000 G o k p u ndrought events but these impacts can e a E ( f d h n l a y g r e ) ( / 2,000 Cambodia-Viet Nam boundarybe attenuated by hydropower 0 0 Srepok river DF-BL DMST-BL DMST-A2 DMST-B2operations of the large storage dams. Definite 1 future Full HP Full HP Full HP 1986-2005 development development 2010-20491000 10 100 1986-2005 2010-2049 development Return period (years) with with A2 Climate B2 Climate 16,000 change change ND-BL:1986-2005 14,000 ND-A2: 2010-2049 12,000 ND-B2: 2010-2049 s ) 3/ 10,000 10
  11. 11. Key messages The effect of hydropower development on flows is much greater than climate change and it might happens sooner. Increase frequency and magnitude of extreme events from climate change should be considered to prioritize mitigation measures. Flow alteration from climate change and hydropower development will lead to downstream impacts and transboundary conflicts: Need platform for coordination, cooperation and sharing information. 11
  12. 12. Acknowledgements Mekong River Commission: data and information The Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund: a joint initiative of Conservation International, l’Agence Française de Développement, the Global Environment Facility, the Government of Japan, the MacArthur Foundation and the World Bank. A fundamental goal is to ensure civil society is engaged in biodiversity conservation. Please visit www.mekongflows.org 12

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