   Schedule/Agenda for Upcoming Workshop   Planning Perspectives   Process for Developing the Master Plan    • Supply/D...
Feb 28 - Water Planning Committee • Planning Perspectives     •   2010 UWMP •   Supply and Demand Scenario Development •  ...
   Develop up to 80 MGD of seawater desalination    ◦ Supply from the West, emphasis on reliability   Develop 50 to 100 ...
The Physical System                                                       Pipeline 62004 Facilities Master                ...
   Reduced demands/increased conservation (2010 UWMP)   Supply uncertainties   Increased supply diversification    ◦ Si...
San Diego Countys Water Supply Portfolio           2015                                                                   ...
900,000                                                                                                                   ...
   Urban Water Management Plan provides:    • Annual water demands on a regional basis    • Local and imported supply ava...
   Purpose:    • Guiding document for new infrastructure investments through the      2035 planning horizon   Key Object...
Frame the Problem                                                   Framing/ScenarioDevelop Scenarios of                  ...
   Master Plan Scenarios    • Built from 2010 UWMP scenarios    • Considers single/multiple dry years,      limited MWD s...
Master Plan Update                        Supply and Demand Scenarios           Scenario                                  ...
Steep increase in untreated water deliveries            500000                                   will require additional c...
Untreated water deliveries internal to Water Authority                            may not require additional improvements ...
Master Plan Update              Water Authority Alternative Facility Portfolios         Portfolio                         ...
   Computer model representation of    conveyance, treatment and storage    system     • Includes SDCWA and portions of  ...
Key Shortage and Conveyance Utilization Evaluation Metrics     Metric                 Threshold                        Bas...
   Baseline Condition    • Shortage risk is low due to dry weather only supply      impacts through 2025 regardless of de...
   Baseline    • Near term conveyance risks, can be managed by      coordinating member agency operations and      throug...
2013 02 28
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2013 02 28

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2013 02 28

  1. 1.  Schedule/Agenda for Upcoming Workshop Planning Perspectives Process for Developing the Master Plan • Supply/Demand Scenario Development • New Supply/Facility Alternatives • Evaluation Criteria 2
  2. 2. Feb 28 - Water Planning Committee • Planning Perspectives • 2010 UWMP • Supply and Demand Scenario Development • Development of Infrastructure Portfolio Alternatives • Evaluation Criteria/Utilization Thresholds • Initial Modeling ResultsMar 14 - Special Water Planning Committee Workshop • Review of Infrastructure Portfolios  Baseline System  Alternative Portfolios • Detailed Modeling Results  Baseline System and Alternative Portfolios • CEQA Process 3
  3. 3.  Develop up to 80 MGD of seawater desalination ◦ Supply from the West, emphasis on reliability Develop 50 to 100 MGD of new treatment plant capacity ◦ Capacity needed to alleviate regional shortfall/maintain reliability Develop 100,000 AF carryover storage to manage seasonal peaks and drought conditions Implement internal system improvements Reaffirmed local supply development If all the above is achieved, additional imported supplies (i.e., Pipeline 6) could be postponed for several years 4
  4. 4. The Physical System Pipeline 62004 Facilities Master North County ESP PSPlan Twin Oaks Valley 100 MGD Second Crossover Pipeline System Regulatory Storage Escondido/Vista IDCarlsbad Seawater Desal Plant Olivenhain Lake Hodges Poway San Vicente Badger San Vicente ESP and Carryover Miramar Storage El Capitan Mission Trails Projects Levy Alvarado Sweetwater Perdue Lower Otay Otay
  5. 5.  Reduced demands/increased conservation (2010 UWMP) Supply uncertainties Increased supply diversification ◦ Significant member agency planned/conceptual local projects Water rates and increasing price sensitivity Regional Historic and Projected Normal-Weather Total Demand 900,000 2005 UWMP Projected Demand 1990-2011 (with BMP based conservation) Historic Demand Demand (Acre-Feet) 750,000 600,000 2012-2035 Projected Demand (after SBX7-7 retail compliance) 450,000 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Year Source: 2012 Annual Water Supply Report 6
  6. 6. San Diego Countys Water Supply Portfolio 2015 2035 80 TAF 80 TAF 174 TAF100 TAF 63 TAF (11%) (8%) (18%) 50 TAF (14%) (9%) 200 TAF (5%) 39 TAF (21%) (6%) 56 TAF (6%) 22 TAF (3%) 28 TAF (3%) 358 TAF 48 TAF (7%) 324 TAF 47 TAF (50%) (34%) (5%) Total = 710 TAF Total = 959 TAF Metropolitan Water District Recycled Water Imperial Irrigation District Transfer Seawater Desalination All American & Coachella Canal Lining Groundwater Conservation (existing and additional) Local Surface Water Normal Year Demand Projections, 2010 UWMP, with Conservation Savings.
  7. 7. 900,000 839,016 785,685 800,000 764,733 Groundwater 717,995 Recovery 687,520 745,589 GroundwaterAnnual Supply or Demand (acre-feet) 700,000 647,285 674,701 659,230 Water Recycling 600,000 610,631 594,982 Surface Water 537,359 500,000 MWD 400,000 Carlsbad Desal QSA Supplies 300,000 Total Demand Less Conservation 200,000 Demand on Water Authority 100,000 - 2015 Normal 2015 Dry 2025 Normal 2025 Dry 2035 Normal 2035 Dry Data From 2010 UWMP, Normal and Single Dry Water Year Supply and Demand Assessment (Tables 9-1 and 9-2) 8
  8. 8.  Urban Water Management Plan provides: • Annual water demands on a regional basis • Local and imported supply availability • Identifies supply uncertainties  State Water Project/Colorado River  Local supply development  Conservation savings Facilities Master Plan: • Attributes demand to where a member agency takes water  From both aqueduct system and local sources • Assesses physical system ability to serve individual member agencies under differing circumstances  Weather variability  Peaking patterns, seasonal and weekly  What if demands on Water Authority are different than assumed 9
  9. 9.  Purpose: • Guiding document for new infrastructure investments through the 2035 planning horizon Key Objectives: • Optimize existing conveyance system/local treatment plants • Evaluate scope, timing and need of remaining CIP projects  Currently included in CIP, but not yet constructed • Evaluate need and timing for new infrastructure and supply projects  Establish thresholds for facility utilization • Integrate potential new desalination supplies into regional treatment and conveyance system • Develop a strategic plan for surface water storage with member agencies • Evaluate renewable energy opportunities • Adapt to changes in future supply/demand conditions – treated and untreated conveyance split • Evaluate local supply development such as IPR 10
  10. 10. Frame the Problem Framing/ScenarioDevelop Scenarios of Development Identify Performance Future Supply and Metrics & Thresholds Demand Evaluate System Performance and System Reliability Reliability Analysis Identify & Characterize Options to Address Reliability Options and Portfolio Development Develop Portfolios Based on Response Strategies Evaluate Portfolio Performance and Portfolio Evaluation Option Implementation Develop Robust CIP Identify Common Actions and Develop Adaptive Strategy Strategies 11
  11. 11.  Master Plan Scenarios • Built from 2010 UWMP scenarios • Considers single/multiple dry years, limited MWD supplies and local supply mix Master Plan considerations • Peak seasonal and daily demand patterns • Local supply development variability • Hydrology Data (112 years) • Climate impacts Each Master Plan scenario attempts to explore an aspect of supply and demand uncertainty 12
  12. 12. Master Plan Update Supply and Demand Scenarios Scenario Description Supplies and demands are consistent with the 2010 UWMP. AllBaseline member agency local supply development (“verifiable”) and(2010 UWMP) conservation targets (per SBX7-7) are achieved. A subset of the Baseline Scenario addresses climate change variation in demands.Reduced Local Supply Additional member agency local supplies and conservation savings are not achieved beyond year 2010 levels. This scenario establishesDevelopment and Conservation the upper boundary for supply development by the Water Authority. Member agency local supply development exceeds expectationsEnhanced Local Supply (“verifiable” and “planned”). Conservation targets, including additional savings, are achieved. This scenario establishes the lower boundaryDevelopment for supply development by the Water Authority. A subset adds conceptual projects. Member agency local supply development and conservation savingsAdjusted Local Supply reach 50% of planned amounts (allows for member agencyDevelopment uncertainty to meet established targets). Provides an intermediate scenario to compare project timing against the baseline. 13
  13. 13. Steep increase in untreated water deliveries 500000 will require additional capacity 450000 400000 350000 300000Acre Feet 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 MWD Untreated MWD Treated Untreated includes MWD purchases and QSA supplies 14
  14. 14. Untreated water deliveries internal to Water Authority may not require additional improvements 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000Acre Feet 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Untreated Deliveries Treated Deliveries *Treated includes supplies from MWD, TOVWTP and Carlsbad Desal **Untreated includes purchases from MWD and QSA supply 15
  15. 15. Master Plan Update Water Authority Alternative Facility Portfolios Portfolio Description Each alternative is compared to the Baseline condition, which is theBaseline Condition existing aqueduct system and ongoing CIP projects funded through completion of construction. Baseline includes completion of the ESP projects. Emphasizes increased seawater desalination supplies from theSupply from the West proposed Camp Pendleton Desalination Project. Evaluates new supply in 50 MGD increments from a plant sized from 50 to 150 MGD. Emphasizes increased regional surface water storage and out of regionStorage Optimization groundwater storage banking to address peak demand constraints on the Baseline system.Conveyance from the Emphasis is on continued reliance of imported supplies from MWD.North New facilities include increasing conveyance capacity.Conveyance from the East Emphasizes a new Colorado River Conveyance system to import QSA supplies directly into the Aqueduct System at San Vicente Reservoir. 16
  16. 16.  Computer model representation of conveyance, treatment and storage system • Includes SDCWA and portions of member agency systems Links supplies/demands with system capacity limitations Evaluates system response based on historical data Model results compared against performance criteria • Determines infrastructure/new supply need and timing 17
  17. 17. Key Shortage and Conveyance Utilization Evaluation Metrics Metric Threshold Basis for Threshold Annual shortages less than 20,000 AF canDelivery Annual system shortage exceeds be addressed by operational or 20,000 AF, for two consecutive management actions, and would notReliability years. signify need for new infrastructure or supply development. Usage exceeds 95% of Conveyance usage near 95% is expectedConveyance conveyance capacity for 15 during peak season. If usage exceeds sequential days and 45 days thresholds, the system may not meet peakUtilization during the peak season. for two demands or refill reservoirs. Water sales consecutive years may be reduced. 18
  18. 18.  Baseline Condition • Shortage risk is low due to dry weather only supply impacts through 2025 regardless of demand scenario  Not considering pumping restrictions or regulatory actions • Beyond 2025, shortage risk strongly depends on member agency meeting established targets for conservation, reuse, and alternative supplies  If implemented, City of San Diego IPR resolves most long-term supply-demand imbalances • Even low demand scenarios exhibit conveyance risks around 2025  Untreated water constraints 19
  19. 19.  Baseline • Near term conveyance risks, can be managed by coordinating member agency operations and through use of seasonal storage pools  Internal system improvements needed to address existing conveyance bottlenecks  Existing conveyance system will be fully utilized to meet projected demands through planning horizon 20

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