Water Planning Committee Presentation by Dana Friehauf, Water Resources Manager and Alexi Schnell, Water Resources Specialist

1. Presentation by:
Alexi Schnell, Water Resources Specialist
Dana Friehauf, Water Resources Manager
Water Planning Committee
September 24, 2015 Meeting
Update on Supply Conditions and
Drought Response Activities
Lake Oroville
Source: NCAR Visualization Lab
August 1997 August 2015

2. 2
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
El Niño Update
September 2015 – El Niño
Advisory
 Issued when El Niño conditions
are observed and expected to
continue
 +95% chance El Niño will
continue through winter and
gradually weaken through
spring 2016
September 2014 – El Niño Watch
 Issued when conditions are favorable for development of El Niño
 Chance of El Niño had decreased to 60-65% for fall and winter

3. 3
The “Blob”
What is the Blob?
 Large mass of warm water off
the coast of the Pacific
Northwest
 Emerged in late 2013
 No historical experience with
the Blob
The Blob vs. El Niño
 Both are phenomenon associated with warm water in the Pacific
that can separately impact weather
 Other than speculation, climatologists have no way to know how
weather systems will be influenced by the potential interaction of
the Blob and El Niño conditions
The
“Blob”
El Niño
Condition

4. 4
Tropical Weather Indicators of
El Niño Continue to Develop
Source: Mike Dettinger, USGS/SIO

5. 5
National Weather Service Precipitation Outlook
A = Above Average B = Below Average EC = Equal Chances
Made February 19, 2015
A = Above Average B = Below Average EC = Equal Chances
Made September 17, 2015
October - December November - January
December - February

6. 6
National Weather Service Temperature Outlook
A = Above Average B = Below Average EC = Equal Chances
Made September 17, 2015
October - December November - January
December - February

7. 7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
SWRCB Emergency Regulation
Member Agency Conservation (June - July 2015)
*Based on R-GPCD data current as of 6/11/15
-1%
-8%
+6%+1%
-6%
+7%
+16%
+8%
+14%
+9%
+4%
+8%
+14%
+8%
+11%
+6%
-8%
+14%
+10%
+10%
7
Source: SWRCB Conservation Reporting Data
Conservation standard
Conservation achieved toward designated standard
Percent achieved above conservation standard
Percent below conservation standard

8. 8
Total Potable M&I Water Use
State Emergency Regulation Reporting Months
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
PotableM&IUse(AF)
Months in 2013 2015 - 2016
-26% -32%
-24%
Cumulative June - August 2015 is 27% lower than 2013
Source: Member Agency monthly water use reporting to the Water Authority

9. 9
Update on SWRCB Emergency Regulations
 Stakeholder workgroup met August 26th
 Meeting focused on expediting adoption of long-term regulations
 September 18th stakeholder letter
 Question authority of SWRCB to extend emergency regulations on
permanent basis
 Long-term water management objectives must encompass both
conservation and supply development
 Focus on unresolved issues associated with emergency regulations
 Next workgroup meeting October 26, 2015
 As part of adoption of regulations, State
Water Board agreed to form workgroup to
address unresolved issues
 e.g. investments in drought-resilient supplies

10. 10

11. 11
Total Potable M&I Water Use
State Emergency Regulation Reporting Months
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
PotableM&IUse(AF)
Months in 2013 2015 - 2016
-26% -32%
-24%
Cumulative June - August 2015 is 27% lower than 2013
Source: Member Agency monthly water use reporting to the Water Authority
Adjusted for growth and weather