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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
MONTHLYREPORT
MONTHLYREPORT
DECEMBER 2023
Cotton and Yarn Statistic
--- For internal circulation only ---
VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION
Collected & Edited: Information and Communication Dept.
Mr. Nguyen An Toan
Chairman of Vietnam Cotton and
Spinning Association
2024 HAPPY NEW YEAR
2024 HAPPY NEW YEAR
WISHES MESSAGE
WISHES MESSAGE
from VCOSA’s Chairman
O
n the occasion of the New
Year 2024, I would like
to send my best wishes
to our members and
partners. On behalf of the Executive
Board of the Vietnam Cotton and
Spinning Association (VCOSA), I
wish you all health, happiness and
success in the new year.
The year 2023 was a tough year
for the textile and yarn industry as
we faced many challenges such as
reduced demand in major markets
due to tight monetary policies to
control inflation, trade wars, and
international competition from yarn
producing countries.
However, thanks to the efforts
of the whole industry, we overcame
those challenges and achieved
remarkable results. In the first 11
months of 2023, fiber and yarn
exports reached nearly 1.63 million
tons, an increase of 13% compared
to the same period of the previous
year.
In 2024, the Vietnamese Cotton
and Spinning Industry will continue
to build on our achievements, while
embracing new opportunities and
challenges. I believe that with the
unity, creativity and dynamism
of the business community, we
will overcome any difficulties,
expand consumer markets,
enhance competitiveness and
grow sustainably. VCOSA will
always accompany and support our
members and partners on the path
towards strong and sustainable
development in the future.
I sincerely thank our members
and partners for always supporting
and cooperating with VCOSA
over the past years. I hope that in
the new year, the collaboration
between VCOSA and our members
and partners will be further
strengthened and enhanced.
Once again, I am wishing all
members and partners a happy new
year with good health, prosperity
and success.
Sincerely,
Chairman
announcement
(regarding changes in the policy of issuing newsletters in 2024)
Dear Members, Readers, and Partners,
The Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association (VCOSA) is pleased to announce changes to the publication
of our internal industry newsletter. We would like to sincerely thank you for your valuable feedback over the
past few years.
📢 From June 2021 to December 2023, we invested and improved the newsletter, which was shared publicly
on VCOSA’s social media channels. During this time, we have continuously received feedback and made
continuous improvements to the newsletter, from content to design, in order to provide the most relevant
and informative information to our readers.
📢 Starting in January 2024, VCOSA will only provide the newsletter for free to members. This is to ensure
that we can continue to provide high-quality content and best serve the interests of our member community.
📢 From the January 2024 issue, VCOSA will be developing new sections that include updated reports,
analysis, and statistics. We hope that this additional information will help readers gain a deeper and more
comprehensive understanding of the industry and market.
Readers who are not members, please contact VCOSA to learn how to receive the newsletter.
We look forward to continuing to receive your support and feedback so that we can improve and serve you better.
Sincerely!
Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association.
NEW SECTIONS FOR 2024
NEW SECTIONS FOR 2024
 Fiber and yarn prices: China, India, Pakistan (weekly)
 Polyester fiber prices: China, India, Pakistan (weekly)
 Polyester Chain Prices In Asia (weekly)
 Cotton Prices On International And Domestic Markets: China, India, Pakistan (weekly)
 Cotton & Polyester Price Comparison (monthly)
 Cotton Fiber & Yarn Price Comparison (monthly)
 U.S. apparel imports (monthly and yearly)
 Bangladesh Yarn Market Prices (quarterly)
 EU Clothing imports by Catagories and Origins (quarterly)
 U.S. Apparel imports by Catagories and Origins (quarterly)
 U.K Clothing imports (quarterly)
 China Apparel exports (quarterly)
 Global textile and yarn industry statistics and Vietnam (yearly)
 Import and export statistics of some typical types of yarn from potential markets and
competitors to Vietnam (yearly)
We invite our readers to read.
To give the community a more comprehensive view, especially of domestic yarn prices, we
invite you to contribute and share yarn prices on the website https://vietnamyarnprice.com
(with an anonymous sender feature). Or you can send detailed price information to VCOSA for
assistance in updating.
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
❄ Brazil may see a quantum leap in cotton acreage in the new season.
❄ Global cotton benchmarks flat or lower over past month: Cotton Inc.
❄ Biggest Chinese cotton growing region turns into textile hub.
❄ Cotton price fluctuations impacting spinners especially in the South India.
❄ Seed shortage may hit India’s cotton output next season.
❄ Bangladesh faces 12% drop in cotton imports in 2023/24 amidst economic challenges.
❄ Bangladesh garment factory tops global LEED ranking.
❄ Fashion brands tread cautiously with chemically recycled fabrics.
❄ Textile yarn market to grow to $18.5 billion by 2028: report.
❄ Updated statistical data of the global textile industry.
❄ Import prices of cotton fell again.
❄ It is forecasted that fiber import prices will recover due to increasing demand.
❄ Import prices of yarn declined sharply.
❄ Export prices of fiber and yarn continued to decline.
❄ Fitch upgrades Vietnam rating to ‘BB+’; outlook stable.
❄ Import and export in 2023: Recording many bright spots.
❄ UK, EU follow US to stop raising interest rates: The world economy will soon be “easier to breathe”.
❄ VCOSA: Announcement regarding changes in the policy of issuing newsletters in 2024.
National
news
International
news
REMARKABLE INFORMATION
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
O
n expectations of a reduction in acreage of corn and
soybean, Brazil may see a record and quantum leap
in cotton cultivation area to 1.94 million hectares
in the 2023/24 season. President of Agroconsult AndrĂŠ
Pessoa said: “Brazilian farmers seem to be shifting their
preference to planting cotton instead of corn and soybean in the
new season, which will boost cotton acreage to record levels”.
Following this increase in cotton acreage, Agroconsult
has forecast cotton production at 3.7 million tons in the
new season compared to an estimated 3.2 million tons in
the current and 2022/23 seasons.
According to Pessoa, the higher interest among
Brazilian farmers to plant more cotton is that cotton did not
experience the same price decline as soybeans and corn
because of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Pessoa added that production costs, which had
reached Brazilian Real 18,000 in the past season, are
now hovering between Real 12,000 and 14,000, making it
profitable for cotton growers and the main reason for the
rise in cotton acreage.
Pessoa also stated that Brazil surpassed the US in
cotton output. In the current season, Brazil produced 3.2
million tons as against 2.9 million tons in the US, and the
difference will be more tremendous next season.
Source: Textalks
O
verthepastmonth,global
cotton benchmarks have
remained flat or have
decreased slightly, according
to Cotton Incorporated. Prices
for the NY/ICE March contract
tested both sides of their
shorter-term range between 78
and 82 cents/lb over the past
month. With a limit-up move on
December 7, prices breached
the upper end of that range,
but they dropped back into it
the next trading day. Current
values are near 81 cents/lb,
Cotton Inc said in its Cotton
Market Fundamentals & Price
Outlook for December 2023.
The A Index was below
90 cents/lb most of the past
month, but with the surge in
NY/ICE futures on December
7, it climbed to 92 cents/lb the
following day.
Chinese prices (China
Cotton Index or CC 3128B)
eased from 106 to 103 cents/
lb. In domestic terms, values
dropped from 17,000 to
16,200 RMB/ton. The RMB
strengthened against the
dollar, from 7.29 to 7.15 RMB/
USD.
Indian spot prices
(Shankar-6 quality) slipped
from 87 to 85 cents/lb. In
domestic terms, values fell
from ₹56,700 to ₹55,200 per
candy. The INR was steady
near ₹83 per USD over the past
month.
Pakistani spot prices
decreased slightly from 75
to 73 cents/lb. In domestic
terms, values fell from 17,500
to 17,000 PKR/maund. The
Pakistani rupee held near 284
PKR/USD.
Source: Fibre2Fashion
Brazil may see a quantum leap in cotton acreage in the new season
Global cotton benchmarks flat or lower over past month: Cotton Inc
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
D
espite concerns about
the credit profile of these
spinners, CRISIL Ratings
contends the spinning companies
are not only resilient but also
stable. As Gautam Shahi, Director,
CRISIL Ratings points out, cotton
yarn spreads are expected to
remain at Rs 75 to 80 per kg this
fiscal year, down from the previous
high of Rs 100 per kg. This decline
is attributed to a sharper fall in yarn
prices compared to cotton prices
in the first half of the fiscal year.
The primary factor contributing
to this decline is the significantly
reduced demand from India’s
domestic readymade garment
manufacturers, particularly in
the knitwear and denim clothing
segments.
South Indian spinners appeal
to government
India’s cotton yarn spinning
is heavily concentrated, with
55 per cent capacity located in
Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and
Telangana. Recently, the South
Indian Mills Association (SIMA)
has flagged issues arising from an
11 per cent import duty on cotton
and the high costs of man-made
fibre and filament yarns. According
to a recent press release, this has
sharply reduced exports of yarns,
fabrics, garments, and made-ups.
SIMA also pointed out the
substantial increase in power costs,
rangingfromRs1toRs2.50perunit,
impacting global competitiveness
and creating challenges in the
domestic market. This disparity is
particularly evident when compared
to states like Maharashtra, Gujarat,
and Madhya Pradesh, which offer
significant incentives through their
textile policies. The longstanding
concern between SIMA members
and their state governments
regarding unaddressed appeals on
power consumption-related crises
persists.
Responding to nationwide
concerns from the spinning
sector, the Ministry of Textiles
has recommended a one-year
moratorium on loan repayments
and proposed extending financial
measures on a case-by-case basis.
These recommendations are based
on representations made by the
spinning sector across the country.
Prevailing, projected cotton
prices dictate lower revenues for
spinners
In the last fiscal, candy prices
reached an exceptionally high
level, peaking at Rs 1,00,000.
However, the current season has
witnessed robust cotton crops,
and predictions indicate another
favorable harvest in the upcoming
season. Consequently, cotton
yarn spinners are grappling with
substantial inventory losses as
candy prices have plummeted by
over 40 percent, ranging from Rs
57,000 to Rs 62,000.
Pranav Shandil, Associate
Director, CRISIL Ratings, says while
the credit metrics of cotton yarn
spinners are expected to moderate
this fiscal due to a weakened
operating performance, they will
remainresilientowingtodeleveraged
balance sheets and conservative
capital expenditure plans.
The positive outlook stems
from the anticipation that the
return of healthy cotton crops in
India could lead to the stabilization
of candy prices at more realistic
levels. This, in turn, may allow
spinners to mitigate their inventory
losses over the coming years.
Source: Fashionating World
COTTON PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
impacting spinners especially
in the South India
India’s cotton industry is
experiencing significant volatility,
with the recent report from CRISIL
Ratings indicating a potential 13
to 15 per cent loss in revenue
for Indian cotton spinning mills.
The basis points are expected
to decline by 250 to 300, largely
attributed to lower downstream
demand, inventory losses, and
narrowing spreads between
raw cotton and cotton yarn. The
report, based on a review of
approximately 90 local cotton
yarn spinning companies, which
contributed 40 per cent of the
industry’s revenue, reveals an
all-time low basis points drop of
7 to 8 per cent compared to the
previous fiscal year
7
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
traditional virgin materials derived
from oil, cotton, and wood.
Despite increased awareness
of plastic waste crisis in the
post-COVID era, there is lack of
enthusiasm among fashion brands
to prioritize the use of these
environmentally friendly materials.
This trend raises concerns, with
environmentalists predicting by
2050, global plastic waste could
accumulate to a staggering 400
million metric tonnes. A recent
National Institute of Environmental
Health Sciences (NIEHS) report
‘Plastics: The Potential and
Possibilities’ underscores India
alone contributes an average of
3.4 million metric tonnes of plastic
waste yearly.
Apparel segment tackles
plastic waste
As plastic waste is
predominantly non-biodegradable,
it undergoes a slow breakdown
into smaller fragments over
decades, posing a persistent
threat to various animal, plant
species. The fashion industry is
gradually addressing this issue by
moving beyond the production of
biodegradable bags and is actively
engaged in transforming fashion
through the utilization of recycled
plastic, although there is still room
for improvement.
One promising avenue is
recycled polyester, which utilizes
fibers derived from plastic bottles.
This approach offers a significant
opportunity to repurpose plastic
waste more efficiently and
diminish the carbon footprint of
the fashion sector. Circulose, a
pulp typically made from recycled
cotton, is gaining popularity in
the creation of clothing materials,
particularly in combination with
circulose-containing viscose,
producing fashionable garments
that offer an excellent fit.
Renewcell AB, a Sweden-
based company specializing in
circulose production, introduced
its first commercial recycling plant
in 2022 with a substantial capacity
of manufacturing 60,000 metric
tons of pulp. Despite this, the
company has faced challenges,
experiencing low order levels
from major retailers such as Zara,
H&M, and Levi Strauss. Meanwhile
Renewcell reports recent stock
value decline of over 80 per cent
and an operating loss of $17
million for the first nine months of
2024.
Recycled polyester, circulose
gain popularity
Zara and H&M have
incorporated circulose-containing
viscose into many of their
garments, offering a luxurious,
silky feel that drapes elegantly,
especially suited for fitted tops and
F
ashion brands have not fully
embraced sustainable practices
involving chemical recycling,
particularly in adopting innovative
methods to transform old textiles
into new ones for a more eco-friendly
approach. High-tech materials
like circulose-containing viscose,
utilized in these fabrics, are not
readily available and come with a
significantly higher cost compared to
CHEMICALLY
RECYCLED FABRICS
Fashion brands tread cautiously with
The heightened focus on
creating a greener environment in
a post pandemic world emphasizes
theurgencyofaddressingtheplastic
waste issue. However, the slow
adoption of sustainable practices
in fashion industry remains a
significant obstacle to making
meaningful progress in combating
this environmental crisis.
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
dresses. Renewcell’s pulp, a key
component in circulose, proves
versatile, as it can be spun into
yarn, woven, or knitted into fabrics.
Remarkably, a ton of cellulose
can yield three tons of viscose
fibers, translating to approximately
20,000 T-shirts.
H&M, as the primary
shareholder in Renewcell, is
actively committed to increasing
the use of recycled materials,
aiming for 30 per cent by 2025.
Inditex, a major player in the
fashion industry with 621,244
tons of clothing sold last year, is
similarly focused on incorporating
25 per cent new sustainable fibers
by 2030.
However, not all fashion
retailers are aligning with
sustainability goals. Boohoo, a
UK-based online fashion retailer,
faced criticism for not upholding
its promise of sustainable
clothing. Allegations of low pay
and poor working conditions in
their factories have tarnished the
company’s efforts to supply items
at lower costs.
The adoption of recycled
polyester is touted as a
greener alternative, consuming
significantly less energy than
virgin polyester production and
resulting in fewer greenhouse
gas emissions. Sustainable
fabric production not only aids in
conserving water resources but
also mitigates the adverse effects
associated with traditional textile
production, which often involves
the use of harmful chemicals. As
the apparel industry looks ahead,
embracing sustainable practices
emerges as a crucial pathway to
a more environmentally conscious
future.
Source: Fashionating World
C
urrently valued at $14.4
billion, the global textile
yarn market is projected
to grow at 5.1 per cent CAGR to
reach $18.5 billion by 2028.
As per a report by Markets
and Markets, growth in this sector
will be fuelled by factors such as
an increasing base of the middle-
class population in emerging
economies and development of
technically advanced yarns.
Demand for textile yarns is
also likely to rise owing to the
manufacture of technologically
advanced yarns with enhanced
properties. Across the world,
demand for technical textiles
across diverse sectors such
as apparel, medical, sports,
automotive, and aerospace, is on
a rise.
The plant segment in the
textile yarn market is anticipated
to experience highest rise in
compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) during the forecast period.
This growth will be driven by an
increasing demand for sustainable
and eco-friendly products.
Polyester will dominate growth
within the artificial yarn category.
The yarn’s exceptional durability,
strength, resistance to abrasion,
wrinkles, stretching and cost-
effectiveness will drive its growth
during the period.
The largest market share in
2023 will be held by Turkey which
boastsofahighlyskilledworkforce,
advanced production technologies
and modern infrastructure.
Source: Fashionating World
Textile yarn market to grow to $18.5 billion by 2028: report
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
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vcosa.vn
X
injiang province in China which accounts for 90
percent of total Chinese cotton production is
now becoming a textile and apparel production
centre. As of date, there 3,720 textile and clothing
manufacturers compared to only 711 in 2014
Attracted by the advantage of easy cotton
availability, 1,340 of the 3,720 companies have
invested from outside of Xinjiang province or various
other parts of China.
Growing at an annual rate of 19 percent, the
Xinjiang textile and apparel sector has attracted
investments totaling Yuan 283 billion since 2014.
According to Chinese experts, over the previous
few years, quality of cotton grown in the province
has improved steadily, while the area under cotton
cultivation too has risen to 35.58 million acres.
Many cotton ginning factories have also been
set up in various areas of the province, due to which
transport costs of ginned cotton bales are reduced
for spinning mills.
The province now also has a polyester staple fibre
manufacturing facility and another plant is projected
to start in early 2024.
Source: Textile Insights
I
ndia is staring at a severe scarcity of cotton
seeds next season as, according to industry
estimates, there has been a 30-40 per cent
drop in production this year. There is not
much surplus to offset the loss. Preventive
policy action can help avert reduced acreage
next year, experts said.
Some experts said exports should
be curbed to make the fibre available for
domestic industry, with demand pegged
higher than production at over 31 million
bales.
Source: The Hindu Businessline
Biggest Chinese cotton growing region turn into textile hub
SEED SHORTAGE
may hit India’s cotton output
next season
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
A
drop in orders from garment buyers and
challenges in securing letters of credit due
to dwindling foreign exchange reserves may
result in Bangladesh importing less quantity of
cotton in the current marketing year of 2023/24.
As per USDA report, Bangladesh’s imports of raw
cotton are projected to decrease by 12 per cent to
7.5 million bales in 2023/24. Gas supply shortages
have led several spinning mills in the country to
operate at reduced capacities, and cotton importers
are encountering difficulties in opening letters of
credit, states the report.
The upcoming national elections scheduled for
January are further hindering production in Ready-
Made Garment (RMG) factories, whose efficiency
has already been impacted by political movements,
including blockades and strikes, as mentioned in the
report.
The forecast indicates a potential 11.4 per
cent decline in the consumption of raw cotton to
78 million bales, with yarn production expected to
decrease to 1.6 million tonnes. This includes 1.4
million tonnes of cotton yarn and 400,000 tonnes of
mixed yarn.
Source: Fashionating World
A
Bangladesh-based
garment factory, SM
Sourcing Ltd, has
been ranked the world’s
top LEED Green Factory
ranking and has garnered an
impressive score of 106 out
of a possible 110. Earlier,
this ranking was held by one
plant of another Bangladesh
apparel producer, Green
Textiles Ltd, with 104 points.
The Bangladesh clothing
sector has made notable
stridesas54oftheworld’stop
100-LEED-ranked factories
are now in the country. There
are 9 of the top 10 and 18 of
the top 20 LEED factories in
Bangladesh.
The country has 206 LEED
Green factories, of which
76 are Platinum
rated and 116 Gold-
rated. Twenty-four
garment factories
were certified in just
the last six months.
Experts opine
that the Bangladesh
apparel sector’s
fast growth in the
number of LEED-
certified green
factories reveals
the industry’s
commitment to
e n v i r o n m e n t a l
sustainability.
Source: Textalks
Bangladesh faces 12% drop in cotton imports
in 2023/24 amidst economic challenges
Bangladesh garment factory tops global LEED ranking
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
T
he upgrade reflects Vietnam’s favorable medium-
term growth outlook, underpinned by robust foreign
direct investment (FDI) inflows, which Fitch Ratings
expects will continue to drive sustained improvements in
its structural credit metrics, the credit rating agency said
in a Friday (December 8) release.
“We have increasing confidence that near-term
Fitch upgrades Vietnam rating to ‘BB+’; outlook stable
Fitch Ratings has upgraded
Vietnam’s Long-Term Foreign-
Currency Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) to “BB+”, from “BB”, with
stable outlook.
A view of the Landmark 81, the highest building in Vietnam, in Ho Chi Minh City
NATIONAL NEWS
economic headwinds from
property-sector stresses, weak
external demand and delays in
policy implementation owing to a
corruption crackdown are unlikely to
affectmedium-termmacroeconomic
prospects and that policy buffers
are sufficient to manage near-term
risks,” it added.
The ratings agency forecast
Vietnam’s medium-term economic
growth of around 7%. The country’s
cost competitiveness, educated
workforce relative to peers, and
entry into regional and global free-
trade agreements bode well for
continued strong FDI inflows amid
global supply chain diversification.
Vietnam’s foreign-exchange
reserves improved modestly, to $89
billion as of end-September 2023,
after a sharp drop in 2022. This
partly reflects some return of capital
flows and a larger trade surplus.
Fitch Ratings forecast reserves
to improve further in 2024-2025
with coverage of current external
payments averaging about three
months
The firm expects some growth
headwinds in the near term owing to
a weaker external environment and
some spillover to domestic demand
from property-sector stresses.
Vietnam’s growth is forecast to
moderate to 4.8% in 2023, from 8%
in 2022, but pick up further to 6.3%
in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, Fitch
Ratings said, noting that the reliance
on credit growth in the policy mix
to support economic activity will
continue to pose a challenge to
macroeconomic stability.
The State Bank of Vietnam, the
country’s central bank, is expected
to retain an accommodative policy
stance in 2024, as some of the
property-sector stresses are likely to
linger.
The last time Fitch Ratings
raised Vietnam’s rating was in May
2018, from “BB-” to “BB.” It affirmed
the rating and lifted the outlook to
“positive” from “stable” in April 2021.
Source: The Investor
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
Record export surplus
The latest report of the Ministry
of Industry and Trade shows that
the total import-export turnover
of the country after 11 months
reached 619,2 billion USD, of which
export turnover was 322,5 billion
USD, import turnover was 296,7
billion USD.
The brightest point in import-
export activities is that the trade
balance continues to record a trade
surplus for the 8th consecutive
year with a surplus after 11
months reaching 25,83 billion
USD - an impressive increase, up
to 250% compared to the previous
year. the same period in 2022. This
result positively contributes to
the balance of payments, helping
to increase foreign exchange
reserves, stabilize exchange
rates and other macroeconomic
indicators of the economy.
In the context that the world
economy continues to grow slowly
and world aggregate demand
declines, Vietnam’s export
activities continue to overcome
difficulties. Although the increase
compared to the previous year has
not yet been achieved, the decline
continues to narrow.
Specifically, the decline
in exports is narrowed from a
decrease of 12% in the first half
of 2023 to 5,9% in the first 11
months of 2023. Besides, export
activities have done well in
diversifying markets. In the context
of exports to major markets
decreasing, export turnover to
African countries, Eastern Europe,
Northern Europe, and West Asia
increased; The decline in exports
in some key markets continues to
narrow (the decline in exports to
the US narrows from 22,6% in the
first half of 2023 to 13,1% in the
first 11 months of 2023; the EU
from 10,1% down to 8,1%; South
Korea from 10,2% down to 4%...).
Import and export
in 2023:
Recording many bright spots
In the context of inflation and
financial tightening taking place in
many countries, causing consumer
demand to decline, in addition to the
efforts of businesses, there is timely
support from the Government and
ministries and branches, including
The active role of the Ministry of
Industry and Trade has helped import
and export activities in 2023 record
many bright spots
Despite many difficulties, import and export in 2023 will still grow positively Photo: Can Dung
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
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In particular, export activities
in recent times have recorded
great efforts of ministries and
branches, including the Ministry of
Industry and Trade, to effectively
manage and open export activities
to China. Thanks to that, basic
goods are not congested, even
during peak seasons, contributing
to increasing export turnover to
the Chinese market. This is also
the only market among Vietnam’s
major export markets to achieve
positive growth (our country’s
exports to China reversed from a
decrease of 2,2% to an increase of
6,2% after 11 month), while other
major markets all decreased.
In addition, the domestic
economic sector continues to
make efforts to maintain and
expand export markets in the
context of many difficulties in the
global economy, with a decrease in
exports of this sector (down 2,2%).
much lower than the decrease in
exports of the foreign-invested
sector (including crude oil), down
7,1% in the first 11 months of 2023.
Regarding key export
commodity groups, the Ministry
of Industry and Trade clearly
pointed out , in the first 11 months
of 2023, there are 33 items with
export turnover of over 1 billion
USD, of which, 7 export items with
export turnover of over 10 billion
USD, accounting for 66% of the
total turnover. Many groups of
agricultural products, rice, and
fruits have taken advantage of
market opening opportunities and
rising prices to boost exports.
“The structure of exported
goods continues to improve in a
positive direction, reducing export
content. raw exports, increasing
exports of processed products
and industrial products, creating
conditions for Vietnamese goods
to participate more deeply in the
global production and supply
chain. The group of processed
industrial goods continues to
account for a major proportion
(85%) in the export turnover
structure” - the Ministry of Industry
and Trade pointed out.
In the opposite direction,
import activities basically meet
the demand for raw materials
and fuels for production and
consumption. Imports of the
group of goods serving production
for export and essential goods
increased, accounting for 88,5% of
total turnover; Imports of the group
of goods that are not encouraged
to import only account for 5,7% of
total turnover.
Overcome shortcomings and
limitations
Although the decline in exports
continues to narrow, the Ministry
of Industry and Trade affirms that
it has not basically recovered
compared to the same period last
year. Therefore, exports in 2023
are estimated to reach about 354 -
355 billion USD, down 4,5% over the
same period last year, not reaching
the planned target (up 6%). Export
turnover to most major markets
decreased although the decline is
gradually narrowing.
In addition, the level of
dependence on the foreign
investment (FDI) sector in exports
is still large when the export
turnover of FDI enterprises,
including crude oil, still accounts
for about 73% of the total turnover.
export nationwide (May 11, 2023).
The added value in exports has
not been as expected. The export
capacity of 100% Vietnamese-
owned enterprises, especially
small and medium-sized
enterprises, is not high.
Export activities will begin to
show positive signs of recovery
from the last months of 2023. In
2024, with the good exploitation
of existing Free Trade Agreements
(FTAs), the conclusion of
negotiations, Implementing FTA
agreementswithnewmarketssuch
as Israel and the UAE will provide
more opportunities to promote
trade, investment and especially
Vietnam’s exports... Good political
relations have been strengthened
and upgraded. with major partners
such as China, the United States,
and the EU is to create a premise
for expanded economic, trade,
and investment cooperation. With
such developments, the Ministry
of Industry and Trade strives to
increase total export turnover by
about 2024% in 6 compared to
2023. The trade balance maintains
a trade surplus (expected trade
surplus of about 15 billion USD).
To achieve this result, the
Ministry of Industry and Trade will
promote negotiations, sign new
agreements, commitments, and
trade links, sign FTAs and trade
agreements with other potential
partners. (UAE, MERCOSUR...) to
diversify markets, products, and
supply chains. In addition, support
businesses to take advantage
of commitments in FTAs,
especially the Comprehensive and
Progressive Agreement for Trans-
Pacific Partnership (CPTPP),
Vietnam - EU FTA (EVFTA),
Vietnam - UK FTA UK (UKVFTA)
to promote exports, through
propaganda about rules of origin
and issuance of Certificates of
Origin, opportunities and ways to
take advantage of opportunities
from agreements.
At the same time, coordinate
with the Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Development to negotiate
with China to open more export
markets for other Vietnamese
vegetables and fruits... Improve
efficiency and regulate customs
clearance speed well Import and
export goods at border gate areas
on the border between Vietnam
and China, especially for seasonal
agricultural and aquatic products;
Move quickly and strongly to
official export.
Source: Industry and
Trade Newspaper
https://vcosa.vn
BẢN TIN THÁNG 12-2023
Notably, on December 13th, the
US Federal Reserve (Fed) upheld
its interest rates, marking the third
consecutive maintenance at the
highest level seen in 22 years,
ranging between 5.25% and 5.5%.
Speculations suggest that the Fed
might uphold these rates until the
first quarter’s end or possibly until
mid-2024.
This collective stance from
the ECB, BoE, and Fed signals that
interest rates have peaked and
could potentially reverse course to
initiate cuts as early as mid-2024.
Fed members anticipate at least
three rate reductions in 2024, each
possibly amounting to 25 basis
points.
The decisions made by
these major central banks align
with slowing economies in their
respective regions coupled with
a rapid decline in inflation. In the
European region, inflation has
plummeted from a peak of 10%
to an estimated average of 5.4%
in 2023, while Eurozone economic
growth forecasts project a
slowdown to 0.6% in the same
year.
Similarly, inflation in Britain
dipped to 4.6% in October, marking
a two-year low but still surpassing
the BoE’s 2% target. This trend
mirrors the situations observed in
the US and the eurozone.
Previously, from approximately
March to July 2022, the Fed, ECB,
and BoE collectively implemented
multiple interest rate hikes in
efforts to combat inflation. The
Fed executed 11 rate hikes, the
BoE carried out 14, and the ECB
implemented 10.
A forthcoming shift in
monetary policy among the ECB,
BoE, and Fed could potentially
see interest rate cuts beginning
around mid-2024, setting the stage
for a global economy with more
accommodative interest rates,
heightened growth prospects,
but with a potential resurgence
in inflation. Forecasts
also indicate an
increase in gold
prices, accompanied
by expectations of a
weaker US dollar.
A weaker US
dollar could alleviate
pressure on currency
exchange rates in
numerous countries,
potentially stimulating
economic growth.
Recently, influenced by
signals from the Fed’s monetary
policy, the USD/VND exchange
rate retracted to the 24,300-24,400
VND/USD range (selling price at
Vietcombank) from 24,750 VND/
USD in early November.
However, despite the
anticipated economic shifts,
the global economy in 2024 is
anticipated to grapple with various
risks due to multiple countries
holding elections, including the
US, and unpredictable geopolitical
tensions. The resurgence of
inflation may pose challenges
for swift interest rate reductions
among nations.
According to a report by the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on
December 13th, economic growth
forecasts for developing Asian
economies in Asia and the Pacific
project a 4.9% growth rate in 2023,
with Vietnam expected to achieve
5.2% growth in the same year and
6% growth in 2024.
The ADB report credits
Vietnam’s cautious and proactive
monetary policy, reinforced
by effective price controls on
essential commodities such as
petrol, electricity, food, healthcare,
and education, for aiding in
inflation control. Forecasts for
Vietnam indicate an anticipated
inflation rate of 3.8% in 2023 and
4% in 2024.
Source: Vietnamnet
O
n December 14th, both the Bank of England (BoE)
and the European Central Bank (ECB) opted to
maintain their current interest rates. The ECB
sustained rates at a record high of 4% for the second
consecutive time, while the BoE held rates unchanged at
5.25% for the third consecutive session.
The ECB affirmed its commitment to maintaining an
appropriate level of tightening for the necessary duration.
Conversely, the BoE stressed the imperative for further
tightening in monetary policy.
UK, EU follow US to stop raising interest rates:
The world economy will soon be ‘easier to breathe’
The global economy appears
set to embark on a new stage with
the potential for stronger growth.
However, inflation could rise again
as interest rates fall. Gold prices are
predicted to increase, while the US
dollar is expected to weaken.
Central banks stop raising interest rates.
JOIN NOW
To learn more or
become a member,
TrustUSCotton.org
Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton
Trust Protocol was designed
to set a new standard in more
sustainably grown cotton,
ensuring that it contributes to
the protection and preservation
of the planet, using the most
sustainable and responsible
techniques. It is the only system
that provides quantifiable, verifiable
goals and measurement in six key
sustainability metrics and article-
level supply chain transparency.
The Trust Protocol provides brands
and retailers the critical assurances
they need to show the cotton fiber
element of their supply chain is
more sustainably grown with lower
environmental and social risk.
SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE
SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION
Trust in a smarter cotton future.
JOIN NOW
To learn more or
become a member,
TrustUSCotton.org
Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton
Trust Protocol was designed
to set a new standard in more
sustainably grown cotton,
ensuring that it contributes to
the protection and preservation
of the planet, using the most
sustainable and responsible
techniques. It is the only system
that provides quantifiable, verifiable
goals and measurement in six key
sustainability metrics and article-
level supply chain transparency.
The Trust Protocol provides brands
and retailers the critical assurances
they need to show the cotton fiber
element of their supply chain is
more sustainably grown with lower
environmental and social risk.
SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE
SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION
Trust in a smarter cotton future.
JOIN NOW
To learn more or
become a member,
TrustUSCotton.org
Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton
Trust Protocol was designed
to set a new standard in more
sustainably grown cotton,
ensuring that it contributes to
the protection and preservation
of the planet, using the most
sustainable and responsible
techniques. It is the only system
that provides quantifiable, verifiable
goals and measurement in six key
sustainability metrics and article-
level supply chain transparency.
The Trust Protocol provides brands
and retailers the critical assurances
they need to show the cotton fiber
element of their supply chain is
more sustainably grown with lower
environmental and social risk.
SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE
SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION
Trust in a smarter cotton future.
16
https://vcosa.vn
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
ƙ Continuing the series of activities of Sustainable Trade Initiative (IDH), on December 1st, 2023, VCOSA
participated in a meeting with core members including IDH, VITAS, VCOSA, LEFASO. The proposal was
made for the Ministry of Industry and Trade to lead the establishment of the Public-Private Task Force
to support sustainable development in the Textile and Leather Footwear industry, aiming to extend the
Public-Private Cooperation Agreement signed since 2016. On December 7, 2023, Mr. Nguyen An Toan
and VCOSA representative attended the first Industrial Park Forum organized by IDH in Hanoi, along with
celebrating the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the IDH organization.
ƙ On the same evening, VCOSA representatives attended the reception welcoming High-Level Agricultural
AttachĂŠ Andrew AndersonSprecher at the United States Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City.
ƙ On December 8, 2023, Mr. Nguyen An Toan participated in the online meeting of the Fourth Quarter of
Business Association with the theme “UPDATE ONTHE MACROECONOMIC/BUSINESS SITUATION INTHE
LAST MONTHS OF 2023 & EXCHANGING DIRECTIONS TO SUPPORT INDIVIDUAL ENTERPRISES IN 2024”
hosted by PSD Committee in Ho Chi Minh City. The meeting focused on updating the macroeconomic/
business situation and new policies.
ƙ COn the same day, VCOSA representative attended the workshop “ASEAN Market: From Ideas to Action”
and the technical workshop “Developing Partner Networks for the Business Information Portal and ASEAN
Access Gateway” to expand the network of partners supporting Vietnamese businesses in participating
in digital platforms for business support and connection. The workshops were organized by the Business
Development Agency, the Ministry of Planning & Investment, in collaboration with the German International
Cooperation Agency GIZ, within the framework of the “Supporting Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in
ASEAN in Vietnam Phase II” project.
ƙ On December 11, 2023, VCOSA welcomed representatives from Newtech Trading and Consulting Company
and InovanceTechnology Co., Ltd., China, to introduce and discuss the objectives of the technical workshop
for the fiber industry in the first quarter of 2024.
ƙ On December 12, 2023, VCOSA discussed cooperation potentials in 2024 with representatives from Cat
Tuong Group in Ho Chi Minh City.
ƙ From December 13 to 15, 2023, VCOSA, along with many OE yarn member companies, attended the
Policy Dialogue and Customs - Tax Procedures Conference 2023. This annual conference aims to provide
information and promote new administrative policies in tax and customs, address difficulties and obstacles,
createafavorableenvironmentforbusinessactivities,andstrengthencooperationbetweenbusinessesand
tax and customs authorities. During the conference, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, expressed
opinions and recommendations regarding the challenges and obstacles faced by OE yarn companies. Mr.
Hoang Viet Cuong, Deputy Head of Customs, gave directives to consolidate information and organize a
meeting with VCOSA and OE yarn companies soon.
- On December 18, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Import-Export Department sent a letter
requesting the Customs General Department to promptly study and coordinate with relevant agencies
to unify appropriate solutions for OE yarn companies.
- On December 20, 2023, the Customs Department of Hai Phong sent an explanatory letter and requested
guidance from the Customs General Department
VCOSA’S ACTIVITIES
Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA Chairman, addressed media
interviews during the meeting
Mr. Huynh Tien Dung, National Director of IDH Vietnam, and
Mr. Nguyen An Toan participated in the meeting
17
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Mr. Cossi Gaston Dossohoui, Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and
Livestock; and Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman
Ms. Nguyen Ngoc Khanh Nhat, CEO of STS Company, and Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman,
signed the MOU and Cooperation Agreement for the Texfuture Vietnam Exhibition from 2024
Official dinner reception honoring the foreign Minister and Minister of
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Livestock of the Republic of Benin
- On December 21, 2023, VCOSA sent a letter to the Vietnam Textile and Garment Research Institute
(VTRI) proposing a meeting to seek additional professional opinions on the classification of goods,
specifically, raw cotton waste and combed cotton waste. On the afternoon of December 22, 2023,
at the VTRI headquarters, representatives from the VTRI, VCOSA, and relevant OE fiber companies
exchanged and agreed on a number of necessary contents in preparation for the upcoming meeting
with the General Department of Customs. The VTRI sent a response letter to VCOSA on the morning
of December 25, 2023 to identify and clarify further whether raw cotton waste can be used as a raw
material for the production of OE yarn.
ƙ On the evening of December 14, 2023, in Hanoi, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, attended a
reception at the invitation of Minister of Foreign Affairs Bui Thanh Son, on the occasion of the official visit
of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock of the Republic of Benin to
Vietnam. During the reception, the parties exchanged ideas on the potential cooperation between the two
countries in the field of cotton yarn production between Benin and Vietnam.
ƙ On December 16, 2023, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, along with representatives of Sustainable
Textile Solutions Corporation (STS), officially signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and
Cooperation Agreement. According to the agreement, VCOSA will become a co-organizer for the annual
Texfuture Vietnam event starting in 2024. Texfuture Vietnam is a “globally localized” exhibition, one of the
specialized events in sustainable textile and fashion, focusing on high-quality fabric as the main product,
held every six months.
ƙ On the same day, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, attended the Year-end Meeting 2023 organized
by the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) with the theme “Promoting Internal Strength
- Comprehensive Connectivity - Sustainable Development”. The conference aimed to outline the
development direction of the Vietnamese textile and apparel industry, gradually moving towards production
methods that bring higher added value. Furthermore, by 2035, the major contribution to the value of textile
and apparel exports would come from the export of products bearing the Vietnamese brand.
18
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
UPDATED STATISTICAL DATA
OF THE GLOBAL TEXTILE INDUSTRY
1. Spinning machinery summary
🔸 The data is updated from the source of the International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF)
Source: ITMF
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Source: ITMF
20
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
Source: ITMF
21
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Source: ITMF
Summary (Number installed at end of year, per region)
22
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
2. Weaving machinery summary
Source: ITMF
23
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Source: ITMF
24
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
3. Raw materials consumption summary
Source: ITMF
Summary (Number installed at end of year, per region)
25
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Source: ITMF
26
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
Summary (metric tons, per region)
Source: ITMF
🌍ARISE IIP: Cotton's Transformative Role in Africa 🌱
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Western Africa's rich cotton basins leading the charge.
Countries like Benin and Togo export a staggering 99% of
their cotton to Asia.
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1. Sustainable Steps Forward:
— 100% sustainably sourced cotton under the CMiA
initiative.
— CO2logic partnership to reduce carbon footprint.
— Controlled chemical use and increased recycling.
— 95% water reuse and on-site solar energy generation.
2. Empowering Local Economy:
— Value addition at source ensures fair prices for
producers.
— Integrated logistics to cut costs.
— Increased market access for small manufacturers.
— Skilled manpower through Garment Training Centers.
ARISE IIP as a developer and operator of world-class
industrial park ecosystems in Africa. At present, we
own 17 Industrial Parks in West Africa. With its strategic
geographical location, abundant human resources, and raw
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and PIA in Benin are two specific industrial parks of ARISE
IIP with many unique advantages for textile industry.
We are excited to know about your investment plans for
West-Africa. Connect with us today, please!
28
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
REPORT AND DATABASE
1. Monthly Import Statistics
In November 2023, cotton imports increased by
11.4% in quantity and 9.5% in value compared to the
previous month. Fiber and yarn imports increased
3.6% in quantity but value decreased slightly by 0.2%
compared to the previous month.
In the first 11 months of 2023, both quantity and
value of cotton imports decreased compared to the
same period last year. The accumulated quantity of
fiber and yarn imports was stable, but value decreased
by 16.3% compared to the same period last year.
In November 2023, the quantity
of cotton imports was 119.8
thousand tons, up 11.4% compared
to the previous month.
Fiber and yarn imports were 99.6
thousand tons, up 3.6% compared to
the previous month.
The import value of textile and
garment products in November
all increased, in which cotton and
materials and accessories for
the textile and garment industry
increased the most.
• Fiber and yarn imports: US$194.1
million, down slightly 0.2%
compared to the previous month.
• Cotton imports: US$237.1 million,
up 9.5%.
• Fabric imports: US$1.176 billion,
up 3.9%.
• Imports of raw materials for
textile and garment industry:
US$536.7 million, up 8.1%
compared to the previous month.
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
The import value of textile and garment products in the first 11 months of 2023 all decreased compared to
the same period last year, with cotton decreasing the most.
• Cotton imports: US$2.59 billion, down 31.3% compared to the same period last year.
• Fiber and yarn: US$1.99 billion, down 16.3%.
• Fabric: US$11.87 billion, down 13.2%.
• Raw materials for textile and garment industry: US$5.48 billion, down 11.8%.
Preliminary statistical
information shows that in
November 2023, Vietnam
imported 99.6 thousand tons
of fiber and yarn. This import
quantity increased 3.6%
compared to the previous
month and increased 19%
compared to the same period
last year.
In November 2023,
Vietnam imported 119.8
thousand tons of cotton,
up 11.4% compared to
October 2023 but down
10.2% compared to the
same period in 2022.
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
A
ccording to customs
statistics, cotton imports
into Vietnam in October 2023
reached 107.59 thousand tons,
valued at US$216.61 million, down
0.8% in quantity and down 1.7%
in value compared to September
2023; down 23.3% in quantity
and down sharply 47.6% in value
compared to October 2022.
In the first 10 months of 2023,
the quantity of cotton imported
into Vietnam was 1.09 million tons,
with a value of US$2.35 billion,
down 8.7% in quantity and down
30.6% in value compared to the
same period in 2022.
Imports of cotton by foreign
direct investment enterprises in
October 2023 reached 76 thousand
tons, valued at US$153 million,
down 3.8% in quantity but up 1.3%
in value compared to September
2023; down 29.6% in quantity and
down 53.2% in value compared
to October 2022. In the first 10
months of 2023, cotton imports
by foreign direct investment
enterprises reached 735 thousand
tons, valued at US$1.62 billion,
down 11.9% in quantity and down
32.9% in value compared to the
same period in 2022, accounting
for 67.1% of the total quantity and
69.1% of the total value of cotton
imports in the country.
quantities reaching 389 thousand
tons, valued at US$856 million, down
9.6% in quantity and down 32.5% in
value compared to the same period
in 2022, accounting for 35.5% of the
total cotton imports.
Specifically, in October 2023,
the imported quantity of cotton
from this market reached 10.85
thousand tons, valued at US$24.75
million, down 14.7% in quantity and
down 16.7% in value compared to
September 2023, down 61.9% in
quantity and down 69.7% in value
compared to October 2022.
Cotton imports from the
Australian market ranked second,
reaching 355 thousand tons, valued
at US$781 million, up 18.8% in
quantity but down 14% in value
compared to the same period last
year. Specifically, in October 2023,
the imported quantity of cotton
from this market reached 54.66
thousand tons, valued at US$113.19
million, down 17.5% in quantity and
down 18.9% in value compared to
September 2023, down 33.9% in
quantity and down 55.9% in value
compared to October 2022.
In addition, cotton imports from
all other markets decreased sharply
in quantity in the first 10 months of
2023 compared to the same period
in 2022 such as: imports from India
decreased by 32.2%; from Argentina
decreased by 88.3%; from Cote
d’Ivoire decreased by 70.2%.
In the first 10 months of
2023, there were 13 markets
supplying cotton to Vietnam, an
increase of 3 markets compared
to the same period in 2022. The
imported quantity of Vietnam’s
raw cotton from all major markets
decreased compared to the same
period in 2022, except for the
Australian market which increased.
Specifically:
Vietnam imported the most
cotton from the US market in the first
10 months of 2023, with imported
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s cotton imports
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s cotton imports in 2022-2023 (thousand tons)
1.1 Import prices of cotton fell again
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
The average import price of cotton in 2022-2023 (USD/ton)
US Cotton Prices (USD/pound)
Import price of cotton
Source: VITIC
Source: macrotrends.net
The world cotton price is still
on a downward trend. After rising
slightly for a month, Vietnam’s
cotton import market has
begun to decline slightly again.
With little positive signs both
domestically and internationally,
it is forecasted that cotton import
prices into Vietnam will not rise
again yet due to difficulties in
the textile and garment industry
globally and domestically not
fully recovering.
The average
imported cotton price
from key markets in
October 2023 declined
slightly compared
to September 2023.
Except for imported
cotton prices from
Brazil which rose
slightly by 0.6% to
US$2,062 per tonne.
The imported cotton price into Vietnam in
October 2023 was at US$2,013 per tonne, down 0.9%
from September 2023 and down 31.7% from October
2022. Thus, after 12 consecutive months of price
declines, cotton import prices into Vietnam began to
rise slightly in September 2023, however in October
2023 it turned to decline slightly again.
For the first 10 months of 2023, the average
imported cotton price into Vietnam was US$2,146 per
tonne, down 23.9% compared to the same period in
2022.
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
1.2 It is forecasted that fiber import prices will recover due to
increasing demand
AccordingtostatisticsfromtheGeneralDepartment
of Customs, Vietnam’s imported fiber volume in
October 2023 reached 44.76 thousand tonnes, worth
US$53.43 million, up 24.9% in volume and up 18% in
value compared to September 2023; up 99% in volume
and up 82.1% in value compared to October 2022.
worth US$26.32 million, up 35.3%
in volume and up 32.7% in value
compared to September 2023; up
154.5% in volume and up 121.9% in
value compared to October 2022.
For the first 10 months of
2023, fiber imports from China to
Vietnam reached 168.57 thousand
tonnes, worth US$193.47 million,
accounting for 48.5% of total
import volume, up 30.1% in volume
and up 14% in value compared to
the same period of 2022.
Imports of fiber from Thailand
ranked second, with import volume
reaching 5.2 thousand tonnes,
worth US$6.32 million, up 2.3%
in volume but down 8% in value
compared to September 2023; up
6.8% in volume and up 19.5% in
value compared to October 2022.
For the first 10 months of 2023,
fiber imports from Thailand to
Vietnam reached 45.71 thousand
tonnes, worth US$55.94 million,
accounting for 2.1% of Vietnam’s
total fiber import volume, up 18.8%
in volume and up 10% in value
compared to the same period of
2022.
In general, fiber imports from
Vietnam’s main supplier markets
in the first 10 months of 2023 all
increased, except for imports from
South Korea which decreased
35.9% in volume.
Notably, fiber import volumes
from some markets increased
strongly in the first 10 months of
2023 such as Bangladesh, Austria
and Hong Kong.
Vietnam’s fiber imports in 2022-2023 (thousand tons)
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s fiber imports
In the first 10 months
of 2023, Vietnam
imported fiber from 33
markets, an increase of
7 markets compared
to the same period of
2022. Specifically:
China remained the
largest fiber supplier
market to Vietnam. Fiber
imports from China in
October 2023 reached
23.97 thousand tonnes,
Jan Feb Mar Jun
Apr Jul
May
2022 2023
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
The average import price of
fiber to Vietnam in October 2023
was US$1,194 per tonne, down
5.6% compared to September
2023 and down 8.5% compared
to October 2022. For the first
10 months of 2023, the average
import price of fiber to Vietnam
was US$1,281 per tonne, down
9.5% compared to the same period
of 2022.
Specifically, the import price
of fiber from China was lowest at
US$1,098 per tonne, followed by
Thailand at US$1,215 per tonne...
and the highest import price was
from South Korea at US$1,809 per
tonne.
Notably, the lowest import
price of fiber from Bangladesh was
US$669 per tonne.
According to the WASDE
report, global cotton consumption
remained weak. Global trade
changed little from the previous
month, although China’s imports
rose slightly again. Global cotton
prices stabilized as supply and
demand continued to diverge.
In China, according to sources
from the China National Textile
and Apparel Information Center,
polyester fiber prices continued
to decline sharply in recent days,
reaching 7,155 RMB/tonne on
December 7, 2023, while on
November 3, 2023 it was 7,425
RMB/tonne.
In Vietnam, import prices for
fiber continued to decline deeply in
October 2023 but import volumes
have strongly recovered. With the
recovery in textile and garment
exports, it is forecast that demand
for importing fiber materials will
increase, especially in the context
of falling global fiber prices,
businesses will increase imports
of fiber.
The average import price of fiber in 2022-2023 (USD/ton)
Average prices of polyester fiber and viscose fiber in China from 2022 to 2023 (RMB/ton)
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
— All data are accurate, relevant and verified from sources: the Ministry of Industry and
Trade, General Department of Vietnam Customs, General Statistics Office of Vietnam,
International Trade Center, Cotton Incorporated and other reliable sources.
— This text provides general information. VCOSA assumes no liability for the information
given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display
more up-to-date data than referenced in the text.
Communication and Information Department
2022
Polyester fiber Visco fiber
2023
Jan
1,100
5,000
9,000
13,000
17,000
1,200
1,600
1,300
1,400
1,500
Feb Mar Jun
Apr Jul
May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
34
https://vcosa.vn
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
According to preliminary statistics from customs
data, yarn imports in October 2023 reached
56.58 thousand tons, worth 143.56 million USD, up
6.3% in volume but down 0.6% in value compared to
September 2023; up 13.9% in volume and up 4.4%
in value compared to October 2022. In the first 10
months of 2023, the volume of imports of this item
reached 490.17 thousand tons, worth 1.35 billion
USD, down 16.1% in volume and down 23.5% in value
compared to the same period in 2022.
China is Vietnam’s largest
supplier market for yarn. In
October 2023, imports from China
reached 37.82 thousand tons,
worth 87.51 million USD, up 1%
in volume but down 4.4% in value
compared to September 2023; up
17.7% in volume and up 16.7% in
value compared to October 2022.
In the first 10 months of 2023,
yarn imports from China reached
333.33 thousand tons, worth 815
million USD, accounting for 68%
of the total import volume, down
11.8% in volume and down 22.2%
in value compared to the same
period in 2022.
Imports of yarn from Taiwan
in October 2023 reached 5.06
thousand tons, worth 15.72 million
USD, up 3.8% in volume and up 13.4%
in value compared to September
2023, but down 29.6% in volume and
down 18.1% in value compared to
October 2022. In the first 10 months
of 2023, imports of yarn fromTaiwan
reached 46.29 thousand tons, worth
131 million USD, accounting for
9.4% of Vietnam’s total yarn, down
sharply 42% in volume and 42%
in value compared to the first 10
months of 2022.
In general, in the first 10
months of 2023, imports of yarn
from major markets to Vietnam all
declined sharply compared to the
same period in 2022, except the
market of India which increased
15.7% in volume.
Import price of fiber
Source: VITIC
1.3 Import prices of yarn declined sharply
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s yarn imports in 2022-2023 (thousand tons)
2022 2023
Jan Feb Mar Jun
Apr Jul
May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
35
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s yarn imports
The average import price of yarn into Vietnam in
October 2023 was US$2,537 per ton, down 6.4% from
September 2023 and down 8.4% from October 2022.
For the first 10 months of 2023, the average import
price of yarn into Vietnam was US$2,771 per ton,
down 8.8% from the same period in 2022.
Among them, the lowest import price of yarn was
from Hong Kong at US$1,387 per ton; followed by
South Korea at US$1,701 per ton. The highest import
price was from the India at US$4,397 per ton.
Source: VITIC
Import price of yarn
In Vietnam, import prices
of yarn declined quite sharply
compared to September 2023
but with demand from the market
still at a low level, import volumes
decreased. With global yarn
prices forecast to decline, import
prices of yarn into Vietnam are
expected to decrease further in
the coming period and import
volumes will continue to remain
at a low level without signs of a
strong recovery.
The average import price of yarn in 2022-2023
(USD/ton)
Source: VITIC
Jan Feb Mar Jun
Apr Jul
May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2022 2023
2,500
3,000
3,500
2,750
3,250
36
https://vcosa.vn
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
2. Monthly Export Statistics
Export data in November 2023
showed:
• Exports of technical textile
increased 4.5% month-on-month,
reaching 56.4 million USD.
• Exports of raw materials for textile
and garment industry decreased
5.3%, reaching 156.6 million USD.
• Fabric exports reached 195.3
million USD, decreasing 2.7%.
• Fiber and yarn exports reached
354 million USD in November,
decreasing 8.9% month-on-month.
In general, fiber yarn export in the first 11 months of
2023 continued to increase in volume while turnover
decreased compared to the same period last year.
Fiber yarn export in November 2023 reached
149.5 thousand tons, down 8.1% month-on-month,
with export turnover of 354 million USD, down 8.9%.
In the first 11 months of 2023, fiber yarn export
reached 1.63 million tons, up 13% year-on-year.
However, export turnover decreased by 9% to 3.99
billion USD.
According to preliminary
statistics from the General
Department of Customs, in
November 2023, Vietnam
exported 149.5 thousand tons of
fiber and yarn, decreasing 8.1%
compared to the previous month.
The export turnover of this
item reached 354 million USD,
decreasing 8.9% compared to the
previous month.
37
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
In November
2023, Vietnam’s
exports of textile
and apparel reached
US$2.75 billion,
increasing 7.2%
compared to the
previous month.
According to
preliminary statistics
in November 2023,
Vietnam’s exports of
textile and apparel
reached US$2.75
billion, decreasing 6%
compared to the same
period last year.
In the first 11 months of 2023, export turnover of textile and garment products recorded sharp declines
compared to the same period last year.
• Fiber and yarn: US$3.99 billion, down 9%.
• Fabric: US$2.19 billion, down 12.7%.
• Raw materials for textile and garment industry: US$1.79 billion, down 13.6%.
• Technical textile: US$606.6 million, down sharply 24.4% year-on-year.
38
https://vcosa.vn
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
A
ccording to statistics from
the General Department of
Customs, Vietnam’s exports
of fiber and yarn in October 2023
reached 162.7 thousand tons, with
a turnover of 388.7 million USD,
up 5.8% in volume and up 4% in
turnover compared to September
2023; up 39.5% in volume and up
26.2% in turnover compared to
October 2022.
In the first 10 months of 2023,
Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn
reached 1.479 million tons, with
a turnover of 3.64 billion USD, up
12% in volume but down 10.8% in
turnover compared to the same
period in 2022.
Among the textile and garment
export groups of Vietnam, fiber
and yarn are the group showing
the clearest signs of recovery,
as evidenced by the significant
increase in export turnover of
this item from July 2023 to now
compared to the same months
last year.
It is estimated that Vietnam’s
exports of fiber and yarn will
continue to increase in the 4th
quarter of 2023 when the global
textile and garment market
shows signs of recovery. In the
US - Vietnam’s largest textile
and garment export market -
demand is forecast to increase for
fashionable clothing for the end-
of-year holiday season as US retail
sales are forecast to increase
3-4% and recover to pre-pandemic
levels.
The EU market also shows
significant recovery as Vietnam’s
textile and garment exports to
this market increased strongly
in October 2023 compared to
September 2023.
Accordingly, demand for
fibers, yarns and raw materials to
serve textile and garment export
production of many countries
will increase. This will be an
opportunity for Vietnam to export
fiber and yarn in the coming time
In October 2023, although
Vietnam’s exports of fiber, yarn
decreased to many markets
compared to September 2023,
however, exports to key markets
all increased, with exports to South
Korea and Bangladesh increasing
at a double-digit rate.
Compared to October 2022,
Vietnam’s exports of fiber, and yarn
to key markets in October 2023 all
increased, except for exports to
Bangladesh which decreased 7.7%
in quantity and decreased 13.1% in
value.
In the first ten months of
2023, China was Vietnam’s largest
export market for fiber and yarn,
accounting for 49.4% in quantity
and 53.1% in value. Notably,
Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn
to this market increased 21.7% in
quantity and increased 2% in value
compared to the same period in
2022. It can be seen that from April
2023 to now, Vietnam’s exports of
fiber and yarn to the China have all
increased compared to the same
month in 2022, which caused
Vietnam’s exports of these goods
to China to increase in the first ten
months of 2023.
In contrast, Vietnam’s exports
of fiber amd yarn decreased to
many markets in the first ten
months of 2023 compared to
the same period in 2022, such as
South Korea, the US, Bangladesh
and Indonesia.
2.1 Export prices of fiber and yarn continued to decline
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s export fiber and yarn in 2022-2023 (million USD)
Jan Feb Mar Jun
Apr Jul
May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
39
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Export price of fiber and yarn 2022-2023 (USD/ton)
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s fiber and yarn export
The average export price
of Vietnam’s fiber and yarn in
October 2023 reached US$2,389
per tonne, down 1.8% compared
to September 2023 and down
9.5% compared to October 2022.
In the first 10 months of 2023,
Vietnam’s average export price of
fiber and yarn was US$2,461 per
tonne, down 20.4% compared to
the same period in 2022.
ThesurveyfoundthatVietnam’s
export prices of fiber and yarn
have been declining continuously
since July 2023, following the
downward trend in global cotton
and fiber prices. It is expected that
Vietnam’s export prices of fiber
and yarn will continue to decline in
November 2023, as world fiber and
yarn prices remain in a downward
trend.
The average export price of
Vietnam’s fiber and yarn decreased
in many markets in October 2023,
during which, the export prices of
fiber and yarn exported to major
markets such as China, South
Korea, and the US all declined
compared to September 2023, in
contrast, exports to some markets
still increased such as Bangladesh,
Indonesia.
In October 2023, the average
export price of Vietnam’s fiber and
yarn decreased in most markets
compared to October 2022, during
which, export prices to some
markets decreased by double
digits such as the US, Philippines,
Taiwan, Colombia, Pakistan,
Romania, Brazil.
Source: VITIC
40
https://vcosa.vn
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
Source: VITIC
Export price of fiber and yarn
3. Cotton Outlook
T
his month’s 2023/24 U.S.
cotton forecasts include
lower production, mill use,
and ending stocks. Production
is reduced 314,000 bales to 12.8
million, largely due to a 500,000-
bale decrease in the Texas
crop. U.S. mill use is reduced
150,000 bales as spinning activity
continues to lag, and at 1.9 million
bales, is expected to be its lowest
since 1884.
Ending stocks are now
projected 100,000 bales lower than
in November at 3.1 million bales, or
22% percent of disappearance. The
projected upland cotton season
average farm price is unchanged
at 77 cents per pound.
The global December 2023/24
cotton balance sheet includes
lower consumption and higher
ending stocks than last month.
World consumption is projected
1.6 million bales lower, largely
due to a 1.0-million-bale reduction
in China. Turkey’s consumption
forecast is 400,000 bales lower,
and the United States and Mexico
are also down, while Bangladesh is
up 100,000 bales.
Global production is forecast
540,000 bales lower than in
November as reductions for the
United States, Turkey, and Mexico
more than offset a 200,000-bale
increase for Pakistan. World trade
is down only slightly as larger
expected imports by China – up
500,000 bales – nearly offset
reductions in Turkey, Pakistan,
and Bangladesh. Larger expected
exports by Turkey are more than
offset by a 300,000-bale reduction
for Brazil and smaller reductions
elsewhere.
World 2023/24 ending stocks
are forecast 900,000 bales higher
this month, with China’s projected
stocks up 1.5 million bales. Total
projected global stocks of 82.4
million bales are 72% of use.
Source: Cotton Grower
41
NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Source: CI
42
https://vcosa.vn
Head Office
L17-11, 17/Fl, Vincom Center Tower, 72 Le Thanh Ton str., Ben Nghe ward, dist. 01, HCMC
Representative Office
14-15A, 7/Fl, Charmvit Building, 117 Tran Duy Hung str., Trung Hoa Ward, Cau Giay
District, Hanoi City
Office (mailing address)
1265 Hoang Sa str., Ward 5, Tan Binh Dist., Ho Chi Minh city
œ +84 902 379 490
œ info@vcosa.org.vn
œ www.vcosa.org.vn

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VCOSA - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 12/2023 ISSUE

  • 1. 1 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com MONTHLYREPORT MONTHLYREPORT DECEMBER 2023 Cotton and Yarn Statistic --- For internal circulation only --- VIETNAM COTTON AND SPINNING ASSOCIATION Collected & Edited: Information and Communication Dept.
  • 2. Mr. Nguyen An Toan Chairman of Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association 2024 HAPPY NEW YEAR 2024 HAPPY NEW YEAR WISHES MESSAGE WISHES MESSAGE from VCOSA’s Chairman O n the occasion of the New Year 2024, I would like to send my best wishes to our members and partners. On behalf of the Executive Board of the Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association (VCOSA), I wish you all health, happiness and success in the new year. The year 2023 was a tough year for the textile and yarn industry as we faced many challenges such as reduced demand in major markets due to tight monetary policies to control inflation, trade wars, and international competition from yarn producing countries. However, thanks to the efforts of the whole industry, we overcame those challenges and achieved remarkable results. In the first 11 months of 2023, fiber and yarn exports reached nearly 1.63 million tons, an increase of 13% compared to the same period of the previous year. In 2024, the Vietnamese Cotton and Spinning Industry will continue to build on our achievements, while embracing new opportunities and challenges. I believe that with the unity, creativity and dynamism of the business community, we will overcome any difficulties, expand consumer markets, enhance competitiveness and grow sustainably. VCOSA will always accompany and support our members and partners on the path towards strong and sustainable development in the future. I sincerely thank our members and partners for always supporting and cooperating with VCOSA over the past years. I hope that in the new year, the collaboration between VCOSA and our members and partners will be further strengthened and enhanced. Once again, I am wishing all members and partners a happy new year with good health, prosperity and success. Sincerely, Chairman
  • 3. announcement (regarding changes in the policy of issuing newsletters in 2024) Dear Members, Readers, and Partners, The Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association (VCOSA) is pleased to announce changes to the publication of our internal industry newsletter. We would like to sincerely thank you for your valuable feedback over the past few years. 📢 From June 2021 to December 2023, we invested and improved the newsletter, which was shared publicly on VCOSA’s social media channels. During this time, we have continuously received feedback and made continuous improvements to the newsletter, from content to design, in order to provide the most relevant and informative information to our readers. 📢 Starting in January 2024, VCOSA will only provide the newsletter for free to members. This is to ensure that we can continue to provide high-quality content and best serve the interests of our member community. 📢 From the January 2024 issue, VCOSA will be developing new sections that include updated reports, analysis, and statistics. We hope that this additional information will help readers gain a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the industry and market. Readers who are not members, please contact VCOSA to learn how to receive the newsletter. We look forward to continuing to receive your support and feedback so that we can improve and serve you better. Sincerely! Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association. NEW SECTIONS FOR 2024 NEW SECTIONS FOR 2024  Fiber and yarn prices: China, India, Pakistan (weekly)  Polyester fiber prices: China, India, Pakistan (weekly)  Polyester Chain Prices In Asia (weekly)  Cotton Prices On International And Domestic Markets: China, India, Pakistan (weekly)  Cotton & Polyester Price Comparison (monthly)  Cotton Fiber & Yarn Price Comparison (monthly)  U.S. apparel imports (monthly and yearly)  Bangladesh Yarn Market Prices (quarterly)  EU Clothing imports by Catagories and Origins (quarterly)  U.S. Apparel imports by Catagories and Origins (quarterly)  U.K Clothing imports (quarterly)  China Apparel exports (quarterly)  Global textile and yarn industry statistics and Vietnam (yearly)  Import and export statistics of some typical types of yarn from potential markets and competitors to Vietnam (yearly) We invite our readers to read. To give the community a more comprehensive view, especially of domestic yarn prices, we invite you to contribute and share yarn prices on the website https://vietnamyarnprice.com (with an anonymous sender feature). Or you can send detailed price information to VCOSA for assistance in updating.
  • 4. 4 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 ❄ Brazil may see a quantum leap in cotton acreage in the new season. ❄ Global cotton benchmarks flat or lower over past month: Cotton Inc. ❄ Biggest Chinese cotton growing region turns into textile hub. ❄ Cotton price fluctuations impacting spinners especially in the South India. ❄ Seed shortage may hit India’s cotton output next season. ❄ Bangladesh faces 12% drop in cotton imports in 2023/24 amidst economic challenges. ❄ Bangladesh garment factory tops global LEED ranking. ❄ Fashion brands tread cautiously with chemically recycled fabrics. ❄ Textile yarn market to grow to $18.5 billion by 2028: report. ❄ Updated statistical data of the global textile industry. ❄ Import prices of cotton fell again. ❄ It is forecasted that fiber import prices will recover due to increasing demand. ❄ Import prices of yarn declined sharply. ❄ Export prices of fiber and yarn continued to decline. ❄ Fitch upgrades Vietnam rating to ‘BB+’; outlook stable. ❄ Import and export in 2023: Recording many bright spots. ❄ UK, EU follow US to stop raising interest rates: The world economy will soon be “easier to breathe”. ❄ VCOSA: Announcement regarding changes in the policy of issuing newsletters in 2024. National news International news REMARKABLE INFORMATION
  • 5. 5 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com INTERNATIONAL NEWS O n expectations of a reduction in acreage of corn and soybean, Brazil may see a record and quantum leap in cotton cultivation area to 1.94 million hectares in the 2023/24 season. President of Agroconsult AndrĂŠ Pessoa said: “Brazilian farmers seem to be shifting their preference to planting cotton instead of corn and soybean in the new season, which will boost cotton acreage to record levels”. Following this increase in cotton acreage, Agroconsult has forecast cotton production at 3.7 million tons in the new season compared to an estimated 3.2 million tons in the current and 2022/23 seasons. According to Pessoa, the higher interest among Brazilian farmers to plant more cotton is that cotton did not experience the same price decline as soybeans and corn because of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Pessoa added that production costs, which had reached Brazilian Real 18,000 in the past season, are now hovering between Real 12,000 and 14,000, making it profitable for cotton growers and the main reason for the rise in cotton acreage. Pessoa also stated that Brazil surpassed the US in cotton output. In the current season, Brazil produced 3.2 million tons as against 2.9 million tons in the US, and the difference will be more tremendous next season. Source: Textalks O verthepastmonth,global cotton benchmarks have remained flat or have decreased slightly, according to Cotton Incorporated. Prices for the NY/ICE March contract tested both sides of their shorter-term range between 78 and 82 cents/lb over the past month. With a limit-up move on December 7, prices breached the upper end of that range, but they dropped back into it the next trading day. Current values are near 81 cents/lb, Cotton Inc said in its Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook for December 2023. The A Index was below 90 cents/lb most of the past month, but with the surge in NY/ICE futures on December 7, it climbed to 92 cents/lb the following day. Chinese prices (China Cotton Index or CC 3128B) eased from 106 to 103 cents/ lb. In domestic terms, values dropped from 17,000 to 16,200 RMB/ton. The RMB strengthened against the dollar, from 7.29 to 7.15 RMB/ USD. Indian spot prices (Shankar-6 quality) slipped from 87 to 85 cents/lb. In domestic terms, values fell from ₹56,700 to ₹55,200 per candy. The INR was steady near ₹83 per USD over the past month. Pakistani spot prices decreased slightly from 75 to 73 cents/lb. In domestic terms, values fell from 17,500 to 17,000 PKR/maund. The Pakistani rupee held near 284 PKR/USD. Source: Fibre2Fashion Brazil may see a quantum leap in cotton acreage in the new season Global cotton benchmarks flat or lower over past month: Cotton Inc
  • 6. 6 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 D espite concerns about the credit profile of these spinners, CRISIL Ratings contends the spinning companies are not only resilient but also stable. As Gautam Shahi, Director, CRISIL Ratings points out, cotton yarn spreads are expected to remain at Rs 75 to 80 per kg this fiscal year, down from the previous high of Rs 100 per kg. This decline is attributed to a sharper fall in yarn prices compared to cotton prices in the first half of the fiscal year. The primary factor contributing to this decline is the significantly reduced demand from India’s domestic readymade garment manufacturers, particularly in the knitwear and denim clothing segments. South Indian spinners appeal to government India’s cotton yarn spinning is heavily concentrated, with 55 per cent capacity located in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Recently, the South Indian Mills Association (SIMA) has flagged issues arising from an 11 per cent import duty on cotton and the high costs of man-made fibre and filament yarns. According to a recent press release, this has sharply reduced exports of yarns, fabrics, garments, and made-ups. SIMA also pointed out the substantial increase in power costs, rangingfromRs1toRs2.50perunit, impacting global competitiveness and creating challenges in the domestic market. This disparity is particularly evident when compared to states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, which offer significant incentives through their textile policies. The longstanding concern between SIMA members and their state governments regarding unaddressed appeals on power consumption-related crises persists. Responding to nationwide concerns from the spinning sector, the Ministry of Textiles has recommended a one-year moratorium on loan repayments and proposed extending financial measures on a case-by-case basis. These recommendations are based on representations made by the spinning sector across the country. Prevailing, projected cotton prices dictate lower revenues for spinners In the last fiscal, candy prices reached an exceptionally high level, peaking at Rs 1,00,000. However, the current season has witnessed robust cotton crops, and predictions indicate another favorable harvest in the upcoming season. Consequently, cotton yarn spinners are grappling with substantial inventory losses as candy prices have plummeted by over 40 percent, ranging from Rs 57,000 to Rs 62,000. Pranav Shandil, Associate Director, CRISIL Ratings, says while the credit metrics of cotton yarn spinners are expected to moderate this fiscal due to a weakened operating performance, they will remainresilientowingtodeleveraged balance sheets and conservative capital expenditure plans. The positive outlook stems from the anticipation that the return of healthy cotton crops in India could lead to the stabilization of candy prices at more realistic levels. This, in turn, may allow spinners to mitigate their inventory losses over the coming years. Source: Fashionating World COTTON PRICE FLUCTUATIONS impacting spinners especially in the South India India’s cotton industry is experiencing significant volatility, with the recent report from CRISIL Ratings indicating a potential 13 to 15 per cent loss in revenue for Indian cotton spinning mills. The basis points are expected to decline by 250 to 300, largely attributed to lower downstream demand, inventory losses, and narrowing spreads between raw cotton and cotton yarn. The report, based on a review of approximately 90 local cotton yarn spinning companies, which contributed 40 per cent of the industry’s revenue, reveals an all-time low basis points drop of 7 to 8 per cent compared to the previous fiscal year
  • 7. 7 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com traditional virgin materials derived from oil, cotton, and wood. Despite increased awareness of plastic waste crisis in the post-COVID era, there is lack of enthusiasm among fashion brands to prioritize the use of these environmentally friendly materials. This trend raises concerns, with environmentalists predicting by 2050, global plastic waste could accumulate to a staggering 400 million metric tonnes. A recent National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) report ‘Plastics: The Potential and Possibilities’ underscores India alone contributes an average of 3.4 million metric tonnes of plastic waste yearly. Apparel segment tackles plastic waste As plastic waste is predominantly non-biodegradable, it undergoes a slow breakdown into smaller fragments over decades, posing a persistent threat to various animal, plant species. The fashion industry is gradually addressing this issue by moving beyond the production of biodegradable bags and is actively engaged in transforming fashion through the utilization of recycled plastic, although there is still room for improvement. One promising avenue is recycled polyester, which utilizes fibers derived from plastic bottles. This approach offers a significant opportunity to repurpose plastic waste more efficiently and diminish the carbon footprint of the fashion sector. Circulose, a pulp typically made from recycled cotton, is gaining popularity in the creation of clothing materials, particularly in combination with circulose-containing viscose, producing fashionable garments that offer an excellent fit. Renewcell AB, a Sweden- based company specializing in circulose production, introduced its first commercial recycling plant in 2022 with a substantial capacity of manufacturing 60,000 metric tons of pulp. Despite this, the company has faced challenges, experiencing low order levels from major retailers such as Zara, H&M, and Levi Strauss. Meanwhile Renewcell reports recent stock value decline of over 80 per cent and an operating loss of $17 million for the first nine months of 2024. Recycled polyester, circulose gain popularity Zara and H&M have incorporated circulose-containing viscose into many of their garments, offering a luxurious, silky feel that drapes elegantly, especially suited for fitted tops and F ashion brands have not fully embraced sustainable practices involving chemical recycling, particularly in adopting innovative methods to transform old textiles into new ones for a more eco-friendly approach. High-tech materials like circulose-containing viscose, utilized in these fabrics, are not readily available and come with a significantly higher cost compared to CHEMICALLY RECYCLED FABRICS Fashion brands tread cautiously with The heightened focus on creating a greener environment in a post pandemic world emphasizes theurgencyofaddressingtheplastic waste issue. However, the slow adoption of sustainable practices in fashion industry remains a significant obstacle to making meaningful progress in combating this environmental crisis.
  • 8. 8 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 dresses. Renewcell’s pulp, a key component in circulose, proves versatile, as it can be spun into yarn, woven, or knitted into fabrics. Remarkably, a ton of cellulose can yield three tons of viscose fibers, translating to approximately 20,000 T-shirts. H&M, as the primary shareholder in Renewcell, is actively committed to increasing the use of recycled materials, aiming for 30 per cent by 2025. Inditex, a major player in the fashion industry with 621,244 tons of clothing sold last year, is similarly focused on incorporating 25 per cent new sustainable fibers by 2030. However, not all fashion retailers are aligning with sustainability goals. Boohoo, a UK-based online fashion retailer, faced criticism for not upholding its promise of sustainable clothing. Allegations of low pay and poor working conditions in their factories have tarnished the company’s efforts to supply items at lower costs. The adoption of recycled polyester is touted as a greener alternative, consuming significantly less energy than virgin polyester production and resulting in fewer greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable fabric production not only aids in conserving water resources but also mitigates the adverse effects associated with traditional textile production, which often involves the use of harmful chemicals. As the apparel industry looks ahead, embracing sustainable practices emerges as a crucial pathway to a more environmentally conscious future. Source: Fashionating World C urrently valued at $14.4 billion, the global textile yarn market is projected to grow at 5.1 per cent CAGR to reach $18.5 billion by 2028. As per a report by Markets and Markets, growth in this sector will be fuelled by factors such as an increasing base of the middle- class population in emerging economies and development of technically advanced yarns. Demand for textile yarns is also likely to rise owing to the manufacture of technologically advanced yarns with enhanced properties. Across the world, demand for technical textiles across diverse sectors such as apparel, medical, sports, automotive, and aerospace, is on a rise. The plant segment in the textile yarn market is anticipated to experience highest rise in compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the forecast period. This growth will be driven by an increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly products. Polyester will dominate growth within the artificial yarn category. The yarn’s exceptional durability, strength, resistance to abrasion, wrinkles, stretching and cost- effectiveness will drive its growth during the period. The largest market share in 2023 will be held by Turkey which boastsofahighlyskilledworkforce, advanced production technologies and modern infrastructure. Source: Fashionating World Textile yarn market to grow to $18.5 billion by 2028: report NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023
  • 9. 9 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com 9 vcosa.vn X injiang province in China which accounts for 90 percent of total Chinese cotton production is now becoming a textile and apparel production centre. As of date, there 3,720 textile and clothing manufacturers compared to only 711 in 2014 Attracted by the advantage of easy cotton availability, 1,340 of the 3,720 companies have invested from outside of Xinjiang province or various other parts of China. Growing at an annual rate of 19 percent, the Xinjiang textile and apparel sector has attracted investments totaling Yuan 283 billion since 2014. According to Chinese experts, over the previous few years, quality of cotton grown in the province has improved steadily, while the area under cotton cultivation too has risen to 35.58 million acres. Many cotton ginning factories have also been set up in various areas of the province, due to which transport costs of ginned cotton bales are reduced for spinning mills. The province now also has a polyester staple fibre manufacturing facility and another plant is projected to start in early 2024. Source: Textile Insights I ndia is staring at a severe scarcity of cotton seeds next season as, according to industry estimates, there has been a 30-40 per cent drop in production this year. There is not much surplus to offset the loss. Preventive policy action can help avert reduced acreage next year, experts said. Some experts said exports should be curbed to make the fibre available for domestic industry, with demand pegged higher than production at over 31 million bales. Source: The Hindu Businessline Biggest Chinese cotton growing region turn into textile hub SEED SHORTAGE may hit India’s cotton output next season
  • 10. 10 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 A drop in orders from garment buyers and challenges in securing letters of credit due to dwindling foreign exchange reserves may result in Bangladesh importing less quantity of cotton in the current marketing year of 2023/24. As per USDA report, Bangladesh’s imports of raw cotton are projected to decrease by 12 per cent to 7.5 million bales in 2023/24. Gas supply shortages have led several spinning mills in the country to operate at reduced capacities, and cotton importers are encountering difficulties in opening letters of credit, states the report. The upcoming national elections scheduled for January are further hindering production in Ready- Made Garment (RMG) factories, whose efficiency has already been impacted by political movements, including blockades and strikes, as mentioned in the report. The forecast indicates a potential 11.4 per cent decline in the consumption of raw cotton to 78 million bales, with yarn production expected to decrease to 1.6 million tonnes. This includes 1.4 million tonnes of cotton yarn and 400,000 tonnes of mixed yarn. Source: Fashionating World A Bangladesh-based garment factory, SM Sourcing Ltd, has been ranked the world’s top LEED Green Factory ranking and has garnered an impressive score of 106 out of a possible 110. Earlier, this ranking was held by one plant of another Bangladesh apparel producer, Green Textiles Ltd, with 104 points. The Bangladesh clothing sector has made notable stridesas54oftheworld’stop 100-LEED-ranked factories are now in the country. There are 9 of the top 10 and 18 of the top 20 LEED factories in Bangladesh. The country has 206 LEED Green factories, of which 76 are Platinum rated and 116 Gold- rated. Twenty-four garment factories were certified in just the last six months. Experts opine that the Bangladesh apparel sector’s fast growth in the number of LEED- certified green factories reveals the industry’s commitment to e n v i r o n m e n t a l sustainability. Source: Textalks Bangladesh faces 12% drop in cotton imports in 2023/24 amidst economic challenges Bangladesh garment factory tops global LEED ranking
  • 11. 11 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com T he upgrade reflects Vietnam’s favorable medium- term growth outlook, underpinned by robust foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, which Fitch Ratings expects will continue to drive sustained improvements in its structural credit metrics, the credit rating agency said in a Friday (December 8) release. “We have increasing confidence that near-term Fitch upgrades Vietnam rating to ‘BB+’; outlook stable Fitch Ratings has upgraded Vietnam’s Long-Term Foreign- Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to “BB+”, from “BB”, with stable outlook. A view of the Landmark 81, the highest building in Vietnam, in Ho Chi Minh City NATIONAL NEWS economic headwinds from property-sector stresses, weak external demand and delays in policy implementation owing to a corruption crackdown are unlikely to affectmedium-termmacroeconomic prospects and that policy buffers are sufficient to manage near-term risks,” it added. The ratings agency forecast Vietnam’s medium-term economic growth of around 7%. The country’s cost competitiveness, educated workforce relative to peers, and entry into regional and global free- trade agreements bode well for continued strong FDI inflows amid global supply chain diversification. Vietnam’s foreign-exchange reserves improved modestly, to $89 billion as of end-September 2023, after a sharp drop in 2022. This partly reflects some return of capital flows and a larger trade surplus. Fitch Ratings forecast reserves to improve further in 2024-2025 with coverage of current external payments averaging about three months The firm expects some growth headwinds in the near term owing to a weaker external environment and some spillover to domestic demand from property-sector stresses. Vietnam’s growth is forecast to moderate to 4.8% in 2023, from 8% in 2022, but pick up further to 6.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, Fitch Ratings said, noting that the reliance on credit growth in the policy mix to support economic activity will continue to pose a challenge to macroeconomic stability. The State Bank of Vietnam, the country’s central bank, is expected to retain an accommodative policy stance in 2024, as some of the property-sector stresses are likely to linger. The last time Fitch Ratings raised Vietnam’s rating was in May 2018, from “BB-” to “BB.” It affirmed the rating and lifted the outlook to “positive” from “stable” in April 2021. Source: The Investor
  • 12. 12 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 Record export surplus The latest report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that the total import-export turnover of the country after 11 months reached 619,2 billion USD, of which export turnover was 322,5 billion USD, import turnover was 296,7 billion USD. The brightest point in import- export activities is that the trade balance continues to record a trade surplus for the 8th consecutive year with a surplus after 11 months reaching 25,83 billion USD - an impressive increase, up to 250% compared to the previous year. the same period in 2022. This result positively contributes to the balance of payments, helping to increase foreign exchange reserves, stabilize exchange rates and other macroeconomic indicators of the economy. In the context that the world economy continues to grow slowly and world aggregate demand declines, Vietnam’s export activities continue to overcome difficulties. Although the increase compared to the previous year has not yet been achieved, the decline continues to narrow. Specifically, the decline in exports is narrowed from a decrease of 12% in the first half of 2023 to 5,9% in the first 11 months of 2023. Besides, export activities have done well in diversifying markets. In the context of exports to major markets decreasing, export turnover to African countries, Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, and West Asia increased; The decline in exports in some key markets continues to narrow (the decline in exports to the US narrows from 22,6% in the first half of 2023 to 13,1% in the first 11 months of 2023; the EU from 10,1% down to 8,1%; South Korea from 10,2% down to 4%...). Import and export in 2023: Recording many bright spots In the context of inflation and financial tightening taking place in many countries, causing consumer demand to decline, in addition to the efforts of businesses, there is timely support from the Government and ministries and branches, including The active role of the Ministry of Industry and Trade has helped import and export activities in 2023 record many bright spots Despite many difficulties, import and export in 2023 will still grow positively Photo: Can Dung
  • 13. 13 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com In particular, export activities in recent times have recorded great efforts of ministries and branches, including the Ministry of Industry and Trade, to effectively manage and open export activities to China. Thanks to that, basic goods are not congested, even during peak seasons, contributing to increasing export turnover to the Chinese market. This is also the only market among Vietnam’s major export markets to achieve positive growth (our country’s exports to China reversed from a decrease of 2,2% to an increase of 6,2% after 11 month), while other major markets all decreased. In addition, the domestic economic sector continues to make efforts to maintain and expand export markets in the context of many difficulties in the global economy, with a decrease in exports of this sector (down 2,2%). much lower than the decrease in exports of the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil), down 7,1% in the first 11 months of 2023. Regarding key export commodity groups, the Ministry of Industry and Trade clearly pointed out , in the first 11 months of 2023, there are 33 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, of which, 7 export items with export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 66% of the total turnover. Many groups of agricultural products, rice, and fruits have taken advantage of market opening opportunities and rising prices to boost exports. “The structure of exported goods continues to improve in a positive direction, reducing export content. raw exports, increasing exports of processed products and industrial products, creating conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate more deeply in the global production and supply chain. The group of processed industrial goods continues to account for a major proportion (85%) in the export turnover structure” - the Ministry of Industry and Trade pointed out. In the opposite direction, import activities basically meet the demand for raw materials and fuels for production and consumption. Imports of the group of goods serving production for export and essential goods increased, accounting for 88,5% of total turnover; Imports of the group of goods that are not encouraged to import only account for 5,7% of total turnover. Overcome shortcomings and limitations Although the decline in exports continues to narrow, the Ministry of Industry and Trade affirms that it has not basically recovered compared to the same period last year. Therefore, exports in 2023 are estimated to reach about 354 - 355 billion USD, down 4,5% over the same period last year, not reaching the planned target (up 6%). Export turnover to most major markets decreased although the decline is gradually narrowing. In addition, the level of dependence on the foreign investment (FDI) sector in exports is still large when the export turnover of FDI enterprises, including crude oil, still accounts for about 73% of the total turnover. export nationwide (May 11, 2023). The added value in exports has not been as expected. The export capacity of 100% Vietnamese- owned enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is not high. Export activities will begin to show positive signs of recovery from the last months of 2023. In 2024, with the good exploitation of existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the conclusion of negotiations, Implementing FTA agreementswithnewmarketssuch as Israel and the UAE will provide more opportunities to promote trade, investment and especially Vietnam’s exports... Good political relations have been strengthened and upgraded. with major partners such as China, the United States, and the EU is to create a premise for expanded economic, trade, and investment cooperation. With such developments, the Ministry of Industry and Trade strives to increase total export turnover by about 2024% in 6 compared to 2023. The trade balance maintains a trade surplus (expected trade surplus of about 15 billion USD). To achieve this result, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will promote negotiations, sign new agreements, commitments, and trade links, sign FTAs and trade agreements with other potential partners. (UAE, MERCOSUR...) to diversify markets, products, and supply chains. In addition, support businesses to take advantage of commitments in FTAs, especially the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans- Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Vietnam - EU FTA (EVFTA), Vietnam - UK FTA UK (UKVFTA) to promote exports, through propaganda about rules of origin and issuance of Certificates of Origin, opportunities and ways to take advantage of opportunities from agreements. At the same time, coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to negotiate with China to open more export markets for other Vietnamese vegetables and fruits... Improve efficiency and regulate customs clearance speed well Import and export goods at border gate areas on the border between Vietnam and China, especially for seasonal agricultural and aquatic products; Move quickly and strongly to official export. Source: Industry and Trade Newspaper
  • 14. https://vcosa.vn BẢN TIN THÁNG 12-2023 Notably, on December 13th, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) upheld its interest rates, marking the third consecutive maintenance at the highest level seen in 22 years, ranging between 5.25% and 5.5%. Speculations suggest that the Fed might uphold these rates until the first quarter’s end or possibly until mid-2024. This collective stance from the ECB, BoE, and Fed signals that interest rates have peaked and could potentially reverse course to initiate cuts as early as mid-2024. Fed members anticipate at least three rate reductions in 2024, each possibly amounting to 25 basis points. The decisions made by these major central banks align with slowing economies in their respective regions coupled with a rapid decline in inflation. In the European region, inflation has plummeted from a peak of 10% to an estimated average of 5.4% in 2023, while Eurozone economic growth forecasts project a slowdown to 0.6% in the same year. Similarly, inflation in Britain dipped to 4.6% in October, marking a two-year low but still surpassing the BoE’s 2% target. This trend mirrors the situations observed in the US and the eurozone. Previously, from approximately March to July 2022, the Fed, ECB, and BoE collectively implemented multiple interest rate hikes in efforts to combat inflation. The Fed executed 11 rate hikes, the BoE carried out 14, and the ECB implemented 10. A forthcoming shift in monetary policy among the ECB, BoE, and Fed could potentially see interest rate cuts beginning around mid-2024, setting the stage for a global economy with more accommodative interest rates, heightened growth prospects, but with a potential resurgence in inflation. Forecasts also indicate an increase in gold prices, accompanied by expectations of a weaker US dollar. A weaker US dollar could alleviate pressure on currency exchange rates in numerous countries, potentially stimulating economic growth. Recently, influenced by signals from the Fed’s monetary policy, the USD/VND exchange rate retracted to the 24,300-24,400 VND/USD range (selling price at Vietcombank) from 24,750 VND/ USD in early November. However, despite the anticipated economic shifts, the global economy in 2024 is anticipated to grapple with various risks due to multiple countries holding elections, including the US, and unpredictable geopolitical tensions. The resurgence of inflation may pose challenges for swift interest rate reductions among nations. According to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on December 13th, economic growth forecasts for developing Asian economies in Asia and the Pacific project a 4.9% growth rate in 2023, with Vietnam expected to achieve 5.2% growth in the same year and 6% growth in 2024. The ADB report credits Vietnam’s cautious and proactive monetary policy, reinforced by effective price controls on essential commodities such as petrol, electricity, food, healthcare, and education, for aiding in inflation control. Forecasts for Vietnam indicate an anticipated inflation rate of 3.8% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. Source: Vietnamnet O n December 14th, both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) opted to maintain their current interest rates. The ECB sustained rates at a record high of 4% for the second consecutive time, while the BoE held rates unchanged at 5.25% for the third consecutive session. The ECB affirmed its commitment to maintaining an appropriate level of tightening for the necessary duration. Conversely, the BoE stressed the imperative for further tightening in monetary policy. UK, EU follow US to stop raising interest rates: The world economy will soon be ‘easier to breathe’ The global economy appears set to embark on a new stage with the potential for stronger growth. However, inflation could rise again as interest rates fall. Gold prices are predicted to increase, while the US dollar is expected to weaken. Central banks stop raising interest rates.
  • 15. JOIN NOW To learn more or become a member, TrustUSCotton.org Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol was designed to set a new standard in more sustainably grown cotton, ensuring that it contributes to the protection and preservation of the planet, using the most sustainable and responsible techniques. It is the only system that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement in six key sustainability metrics and article- level supply chain transparency. The Trust Protocol provides brands and retailers the critical assurances they need to show the cotton fiber element of their supply chain is more sustainably grown with lower environmental and social risk. SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION Trust in a smarter cotton future. JOIN NOW To learn more or become a member, TrustUSCotton.org Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol was designed to set a new standard in more sustainably grown cotton, ensuring that it contributes to the protection and preservation of the planet, using the most sustainable and responsible techniques. It is the only system that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement in six key sustainability metrics and article- level supply chain transparency. The Trust Protocol provides brands and retailers the critical assurances they need to show the cotton fiber element of their supply chain is more sustainably grown with lower environmental and social risk. SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION Trust in a smarter cotton future. JOIN NOW To learn more or become a member, TrustUSCotton.org Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol was designed to set a new standard in more sustainably grown cotton, ensuring that it contributes to the protection and preservation of the planet, using the most sustainable and responsible techniques. It is the only system that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement in six key sustainability metrics and article- level supply chain transparency. The Trust Protocol provides brands and retailers the critical assurances they need to show the cotton fiber element of their supply chain is more sustainably grown with lower environmental and social risk. SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION Trust in a smarter cotton future.
  • 16. 16 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 ƙ Continuing the series of activities of Sustainable Trade Initiative (IDH), on December 1st, 2023, VCOSA participated in a meeting with core members including IDH, VITAS, VCOSA, LEFASO. The proposal was made for the Ministry of Industry and Trade to lead the establishment of the Public-Private Task Force to support sustainable development in the Textile and Leather Footwear industry, aiming to extend the Public-Private Cooperation Agreement signed since 2016. On December 7, 2023, Mr. Nguyen An Toan and VCOSA representative attended the first Industrial Park Forum organized by IDH in Hanoi, along with celebrating the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the IDH organization. ƙ On the same evening, VCOSA representatives attended the reception welcoming High-Level Agricultural AttachĂŠ Andrew AndersonSprecher at the United States Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City. ƙ On December 8, 2023, Mr. Nguyen An Toan participated in the online meeting of the Fourth Quarter of Business Association with the theme “UPDATE ONTHE MACROECONOMIC/BUSINESS SITUATION INTHE LAST MONTHS OF 2023 & EXCHANGING DIRECTIONS TO SUPPORT INDIVIDUAL ENTERPRISES IN 2024” hosted by PSD Committee in Ho Chi Minh City. The meeting focused on updating the macroeconomic/ business situation and new policies. ƙ COn the same day, VCOSA representative attended the workshop “ASEAN Market: From Ideas to Action” and the technical workshop “Developing Partner Networks for the Business Information Portal and ASEAN Access Gateway” to expand the network of partners supporting Vietnamese businesses in participating in digital platforms for business support and connection. The workshops were organized by the Business Development Agency, the Ministry of Planning & Investment, in collaboration with the German International Cooperation Agency GIZ, within the framework of the “Supporting Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in ASEAN in Vietnam Phase II” project. ƙ On December 11, 2023, VCOSA welcomed representatives from Newtech Trading and Consulting Company and InovanceTechnology Co., Ltd., China, to introduce and discuss the objectives of the technical workshop for the fiber industry in the first quarter of 2024. ƙ On December 12, 2023, VCOSA discussed cooperation potentials in 2024 with representatives from Cat Tuong Group in Ho Chi Minh City. ƙ From December 13 to 15, 2023, VCOSA, along with many OE yarn member companies, attended the Policy Dialogue and Customs - Tax Procedures Conference 2023. This annual conference aims to provide information and promote new administrative policies in tax and customs, address difficulties and obstacles, createafavorableenvironmentforbusinessactivities,andstrengthencooperationbetweenbusinessesand tax and customs authorities. During the conference, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, expressed opinions and recommendations regarding the challenges and obstacles faced by OE yarn companies. Mr. Hoang Viet Cuong, Deputy Head of Customs, gave directives to consolidate information and organize a meeting with VCOSA and OE yarn companies soon. - On December 18, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Import-Export Department sent a letter requesting the Customs General Department to promptly study and coordinate with relevant agencies to unify appropriate solutions for OE yarn companies. - On December 20, 2023, the Customs Department of Hai Phong sent an explanatory letter and requested guidance from the Customs General Department VCOSA’S ACTIVITIES Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA Chairman, addressed media interviews during the meeting Mr. Huynh Tien Dung, National Director of IDH Vietnam, and Mr. Nguyen An Toan participated in the meeting
  • 17. 17 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Mr. Cossi Gaston Dossohoui, Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Livestock; and Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman Ms. Nguyen Ngoc Khanh Nhat, CEO of STS Company, and Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, signed the MOU and Cooperation Agreement for the Texfuture Vietnam Exhibition from 2024 Official dinner reception honoring the foreign Minister and Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Livestock of the Republic of Benin - On December 21, 2023, VCOSA sent a letter to the Vietnam Textile and Garment Research Institute (VTRI) proposing a meeting to seek additional professional opinions on the classification of goods, specifically, raw cotton waste and combed cotton waste. On the afternoon of December 22, 2023, at the VTRI headquarters, representatives from the VTRI, VCOSA, and relevant OE fiber companies exchanged and agreed on a number of necessary contents in preparation for the upcoming meeting with the General Department of Customs. The VTRI sent a response letter to VCOSA on the morning of December 25, 2023 to identify and clarify further whether raw cotton waste can be used as a raw material for the production of OE yarn. ƙ On the evening of December 14, 2023, in Hanoi, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, attended a reception at the invitation of Minister of Foreign Affairs Bui Thanh Son, on the occasion of the official visit of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock of the Republic of Benin to Vietnam. During the reception, the parties exchanged ideas on the potential cooperation between the two countries in the field of cotton yarn production between Benin and Vietnam. ƙ On December 16, 2023, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, along with representatives of Sustainable Textile Solutions Corporation (STS), officially signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and Cooperation Agreement. According to the agreement, VCOSA will become a co-organizer for the annual Texfuture Vietnam event starting in 2024. Texfuture Vietnam is a “globally localized” exhibition, one of the specialized events in sustainable textile and fashion, focusing on high-quality fabric as the main product, held every six months. ƙ On the same day, Mr. Nguyen An Toan, VCOSA’s Chairman, attended the Year-end Meeting 2023 organized by the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) with the theme “Promoting Internal Strength - Comprehensive Connectivity - Sustainable Development”. The conference aimed to outline the development direction of the Vietnamese textile and apparel industry, gradually moving towards production methods that bring higher added value. Furthermore, by 2035, the major contribution to the value of textile and apparel exports would come from the export of products bearing the Vietnamese brand.
  • 18. 18 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 UPDATED STATISTICAL DATA OF THE GLOBAL TEXTILE INDUSTRY 1. Spinning machinery summary 🔸 The data is updated from the source of the International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) Source: ITMF
  • 21. 21 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Source: ITMF Summary (Number installed at end of year, per region)
  • 22. 22 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 2. Weaving machinery summary Source: ITMF
  • 24. 24 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 3. Raw materials consumption summary Source: ITMF Summary (Number installed at end of year, per region)
  • 26. 26 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 Summary (metric tons, per region) Source: ITMF
  • 27. 🌍ARISE IIP: Cotton's Transformative Role in Africa 🌱 Cotton is a cornerstone of the sub-Saharan African economy. As a major export crop and key to the domestic textile industry, it uplifts smallholder farmers and champions the circular economy. Beside, Africa contributes 8% to the world's cotton production, with Western Africa's rich cotton basins leading the charge. Countries like Benin and Togo export a staggering 99% of their cotton to Asia. 💡 GDIZ - Africa's Cotton Industry Hub: The Glo-DjigbĂŠ Industrial Zone in Benin, developed in partnership with ARISE IIP and the Government of Benin, is a $100 million testament to Africa's modern production capacity. 1. Sustainable Steps Forward: — 100% sustainably sourced cotton under the CMiA initiative. — CO2logic partnership to reduce carbon footprint. — Controlled chemical use and increased recycling. — 95% water reuse and on-site solar energy generation. 2. Empowering Local Economy: — Value addition at source ensures fair prices for producers. — Integrated logistics to cut costs. — Increased market access for small manufacturers. — Skilled manpower through Garment Training Centers. ARISE IIP as a developer and operator of world-class industrial park ecosystems in Africa. At present, we own 17 Industrial Parks in West Africa. With its strategic geographical location, abundant human resources, and raw materials, West Africa is gradually becoming a remarkable destination for investors in the textile industry. GDIZ in Togo and PIA in Benin are two specific industrial parks of ARISE IIP with many unique advantages for textile industry. We are excited to know about your investment plans for West-Africa. Connect with us today, please!
  • 28. 28 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 REPORT AND DATABASE 1. Monthly Import Statistics In November 2023, cotton imports increased by 11.4% in quantity and 9.5% in value compared to the previous month. Fiber and yarn imports increased 3.6% in quantity but value decreased slightly by 0.2% compared to the previous month. In the first 11 months of 2023, both quantity and value of cotton imports decreased compared to the same period last year. The accumulated quantity of fiber and yarn imports was stable, but value decreased by 16.3% compared to the same period last year. In November 2023, the quantity of cotton imports was 119.8 thousand tons, up 11.4% compared to the previous month. Fiber and yarn imports were 99.6 thousand tons, up 3.6% compared to the previous month. The import value of textile and garment products in November all increased, in which cotton and materials and accessories for the textile and garment industry increased the most. • Fiber and yarn imports: US$194.1 million, down slightly 0.2% compared to the previous month. • Cotton imports: US$237.1 million, up 9.5%. • Fabric imports: US$1.176 billion, up 3.9%. • Imports of raw materials for textile and garment industry: US$536.7 million, up 8.1% compared to the previous month.
  • 29. 29 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com The import value of textile and garment products in the first 11 months of 2023 all decreased compared to the same period last year, with cotton decreasing the most. • Cotton imports: US$2.59 billion, down 31.3% compared to the same period last year. • Fiber and yarn: US$1.99 billion, down 16.3%. • Fabric: US$11.87 billion, down 13.2%. • Raw materials for textile and garment industry: US$5.48 billion, down 11.8%. Preliminary statistical information shows that in November 2023, Vietnam imported 99.6 thousand tons of fiber and yarn. This import quantity increased 3.6% compared to the previous month and increased 19% compared to the same period last year. In November 2023, Vietnam imported 119.8 thousand tons of cotton, up 11.4% compared to October 2023 but down 10.2% compared to the same period in 2022.
  • 30. 30 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 A ccording to customs statistics, cotton imports into Vietnam in October 2023 reached 107.59 thousand tons, valued at US$216.61 million, down 0.8% in quantity and down 1.7% in value compared to September 2023; down 23.3% in quantity and down sharply 47.6% in value compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, the quantity of cotton imported into Vietnam was 1.09 million tons, with a value of US$2.35 billion, down 8.7% in quantity and down 30.6% in value compared to the same period in 2022. Imports of cotton by foreign direct investment enterprises in October 2023 reached 76 thousand tons, valued at US$153 million, down 3.8% in quantity but up 1.3% in value compared to September 2023; down 29.6% in quantity and down 53.2% in value compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, cotton imports by foreign direct investment enterprises reached 735 thousand tons, valued at US$1.62 billion, down 11.9% in quantity and down 32.9% in value compared to the same period in 2022, accounting for 67.1% of the total quantity and 69.1% of the total value of cotton imports in the country. quantities reaching 389 thousand tons, valued at US$856 million, down 9.6% in quantity and down 32.5% in value compared to the same period in 2022, accounting for 35.5% of the total cotton imports. Specifically, in October 2023, the imported quantity of cotton from this market reached 10.85 thousand tons, valued at US$24.75 million, down 14.7% in quantity and down 16.7% in value compared to September 2023, down 61.9% in quantity and down 69.7% in value compared to October 2022. Cotton imports from the Australian market ranked second, reaching 355 thousand tons, valued at US$781 million, up 18.8% in quantity but down 14% in value compared to the same period last year. Specifically, in October 2023, the imported quantity of cotton from this market reached 54.66 thousand tons, valued at US$113.19 million, down 17.5% in quantity and down 18.9% in value compared to September 2023, down 33.9% in quantity and down 55.9% in value compared to October 2022. In addition, cotton imports from all other markets decreased sharply in quantity in the first 10 months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 such as: imports from India decreased by 32.2%; from Argentina decreased by 88.3%; from Cote d’Ivoire decreased by 70.2%. In the first 10 months of 2023, there were 13 markets supplying cotton to Vietnam, an increase of 3 markets compared to the same period in 2022. The imported quantity of Vietnam’s raw cotton from all major markets decreased compared to the same period in 2022, except for the Australian market which increased. Specifically: Vietnam imported the most cotton from the US market in the first 10 months of 2023, with imported Source: VITIC Vietnam’s cotton imports Source: VITIC Vietnam’s cotton imports in 2022-2023 (thousand tons) 1.1 Import prices of cotton fell again
  • 31. 31 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com The average import price of cotton in 2022-2023 (USD/ton) US Cotton Prices (USD/pound) Import price of cotton Source: VITIC Source: macrotrends.net The world cotton price is still on a downward trend. After rising slightly for a month, Vietnam’s cotton import market has begun to decline slightly again. With little positive signs both domestically and internationally, it is forecasted that cotton import prices into Vietnam will not rise again yet due to difficulties in the textile and garment industry globally and domestically not fully recovering. The average imported cotton price from key markets in October 2023 declined slightly compared to September 2023. Except for imported cotton prices from Brazil which rose slightly by 0.6% to US$2,062 per tonne. The imported cotton price into Vietnam in October 2023 was at US$2,013 per tonne, down 0.9% from September 2023 and down 31.7% from October 2022. Thus, after 12 consecutive months of price declines, cotton import prices into Vietnam began to rise slightly in September 2023, however in October 2023 it turned to decline slightly again. For the first 10 months of 2023, the average imported cotton price into Vietnam was US$2,146 per tonne, down 23.9% compared to the same period in 2022.
  • 32. 32 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 1.2 It is forecasted that fiber import prices will recover due to increasing demand AccordingtostatisticsfromtheGeneralDepartment of Customs, Vietnam’s imported fiber volume in October 2023 reached 44.76 thousand tonnes, worth US$53.43 million, up 24.9% in volume and up 18% in value compared to September 2023; up 99% in volume and up 82.1% in value compared to October 2022. worth US$26.32 million, up 35.3% in volume and up 32.7% in value compared to September 2023; up 154.5% in volume and up 121.9% in value compared to October 2022. For the first 10 months of 2023, fiber imports from China to Vietnam reached 168.57 thousand tonnes, worth US$193.47 million, accounting for 48.5% of total import volume, up 30.1% in volume and up 14% in value compared to the same period of 2022. Imports of fiber from Thailand ranked second, with import volume reaching 5.2 thousand tonnes, worth US$6.32 million, up 2.3% in volume but down 8% in value compared to September 2023; up 6.8% in volume and up 19.5% in value compared to October 2022. For the first 10 months of 2023, fiber imports from Thailand to Vietnam reached 45.71 thousand tonnes, worth US$55.94 million, accounting for 2.1% of Vietnam’s total fiber import volume, up 18.8% in volume and up 10% in value compared to the same period of 2022. In general, fiber imports from Vietnam’s main supplier markets in the first 10 months of 2023 all increased, except for imports from South Korea which decreased 35.9% in volume. Notably, fiber import volumes from some markets increased strongly in the first 10 months of 2023 such as Bangladesh, Austria and Hong Kong. Vietnam’s fiber imports in 2022-2023 (thousand tons) Source: VITIC Source: VITIC Vietnam’s fiber imports In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam imported fiber from 33 markets, an increase of 7 markets compared to the same period of 2022. Specifically: China remained the largest fiber supplier market to Vietnam. Fiber imports from China in October 2023 reached 23.97 thousand tonnes, Jan Feb Mar Jun Apr Jul May 2022 2023 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  • 33. 33 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com The average import price of fiber to Vietnam in October 2023 was US$1,194 per tonne, down 5.6% compared to September 2023 and down 8.5% compared to October 2022. For the first 10 months of 2023, the average import price of fiber to Vietnam was US$1,281 per tonne, down 9.5% compared to the same period of 2022. Specifically, the import price of fiber from China was lowest at US$1,098 per tonne, followed by Thailand at US$1,215 per tonne... and the highest import price was from South Korea at US$1,809 per tonne. Notably, the lowest import price of fiber from Bangladesh was US$669 per tonne. According to the WASDE report, global cotton consumption remained weak. Global trade changed little from the previous month, although China’s imports rose slightly again. Global cotton prices stabilized as supply and demand continued to diverge. In China, according to sources from the China National Textile and Apparel Information Center, polyester fiber prices continued to decline sharply in recent days, reaching 7,155 RMB/tonne on December 7, 2023, while on November 3, 2023 it was 7,425 RMB/tonne. In Vietnam, import prices for fiber continued to decline deeply in October 2023 but import volumes have strongly recovered. With the recovery in textile and garment exports, it is forecast that demand for importing fiber materials will increase, especially in the context of falling global fiber prices, businesses will increase imports of fiber. The average import price of fiber in 2022-2023 (USD/ton) Average prices of polyester fiber and viscose fiber in China from 2022 to 2023 (RMB/ton) Source: VITIC Source: VITIC — All data are accurate, relevant and verified from sources: the Ministry of Industry and Trade, General Department of Vietnam Customs, General Statistics Office of Vietnam, International Trade Center, Cotton Incorporated and other reliable sources. — This text provides general information. VCOSA assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display more up-to-date data than referenced in the text. Communication and Information Department 2022 Polyester fiber Visco fiber 2023 Jan 1,100 5,000 9,000 13,000 17,000 1,200 1,600 1,300 1,400 1,500 Feb Mar Jun Apr Jul May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  • 34. 34 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 According to preliminary statistics from customs data, yarn imports in October 2023 reached 56.58 thousand tons, worth 143.56 million USD, up 6.3% in volume but down 0.6% in value compared to September 2023; up 13.9% in volume and up 4.4% in value compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, the volume of imports of this item reached 490.17 thousand tons, worth 1.35 billion USD, down 16.1% in volume and down 23.5% in value compared to the same period in 2022. China is Vietnam’s largest supplier market for yarn. In October 2023, imports from China reached 37.82 thousand tons, worth 87.51 million USD, up 1% in volume but down 4.4% in value compared to September 2023; up 17.7% in volume and up 16.7% in value compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, yarn imports from China reached 333.33 thousand tons, worth 815 million USD, accounting for 68% of the total import volume, down 11.8% in volume and down 22.2% in value compared to the same period in 2022. Imports of yarn from Taiwan in October 2023 reached 5.06 thousand tons, worth 15.72 million USD, up 3.8% in volume and up 13.4% in value compared to September 2023, but down 29.6% in volume and down 18.1% in value compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, imports of yarn fromTaiwan reached 46.29 thousand tons, worth 131 million USD, accounting for 9.4% of Vietnam’s total yarn, down sharply 42% in volume and 42% in value compared to the first 10 months of 2022. In general, in the first 10 months of 2023, imports of yarn from major markets to Vietnam all declined sharply compared to the same period in 2022, except the market of India which increased 15.7% in volume. Import price of fiber Source: VITIC 1.3 Import prices of yarn declined sharply Source: VITIC Vietnam’s yarn imports in 2022-2023 (thousand tons) 2022 2023 Jan Feb Mar Jun Apr Jul May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  • 35. 35 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Source: VITIC Vietnam’s yarn imports The average import price of yarn into Vietnam in October 2023 was US$2,537 per ton, down 6.4% from September 2023 and down 8.4% from October 2022. For the first 10 months of 2023, the average import price of yarn into Vietnam was US$2,771 per ton, down 8.8% from the same period in 2022. Among them, the lowest import price of yarn was from Hong Kong at US$1,387 per ton; followed by South Korea at US$1,701 per ton. The highest import price was from the India at US$4,397 per ton. Source: VITIC Import price of yarn In Vietnam, import prices of yarn declined quite sharply compared to September 2023 but with demand from the market still at a low level, import volumes decreased. With global yarn prices forecast to decline, import prices of yarn into Vietnam are expected to decrease further in the coming period and import volumes will continue to remain at a low level without signs of a strong recovery. The average import price of yarn in 2022-2023 (USD/ton) Source: VITIC Jan Feb Mar Jun Apr Jul May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 2023 2,500 3,000 3,500 2,750 3,250
  • 36. 36 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 2. Monthly Export Statistics Export data in November 2023 showed: • Exports of technical textile increased 4.5% month-on-month, reaching 56.4 million USD. • Exports of raw materials for textile and garment industry decreased 5.3%, reaching 156.6 million USD. • Fabric exports reached 195.3 million USD, decreasing 2.7%. • Fiber and yarn exports reached 354 million USD in November, decreasing 8.9% month-on-month. In general, fiber yarn export in the first 11 months of 2023 continued to increase in volume while turnover decreased compared to the same period last year. Fiber yarn export in November 2023 reached 149.5 thousand tons, down 8.1% month-on-month, with export turnover of 354 million USD, down 8.9%. In the first 11 months of 2023, fiber yarn export reached 1.63 million tons, up 13% year-on-year. However, export turnover decreased by 9% to 3.99 billion USD. According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in November 2023, Vietnam exported 149.5 thousand tons of fiber and yarn, decreasing 8.1% compared to the previous month. The export turnover of this item reached 354 million USD, decreasing 8.9% compared to the previous month.
  • 37. 37 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com In November 2023, Vietnam’s exports of textile and apparel reached US$2.75 billion, increasing 7.2% compared to the previous month. According to preliminary statistics in November 2023, Vietnam’s exports of textile and apparel reached US$2.75 billion, decreasing 6% compared to the same period last year. In the first 11 months of 2023, export turnover of textile and garment products recorded sharp declines compared to the same period last year. • Fiber and yarn: US$3.99 billion, down 9%. • Fabric: US$2.19 billion, down 12.7%. • Raw materials for textile and garment industry: US$1.79 billion, down 13.6%. • Technical textile: US$606.6 million, down sharply 24.4% year-on-year.
  • 38. 38 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 A ccording to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn in October 2023 reached 162.7 thousand tons, with a turnover of 388.7 million USD, up 5.8% in volume and up 4% in turnover compared to September 2023; up 39.5% in volume and up 26.2% in turnover compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn reached 1.479 million tons, with a turnover of 3.64 billion USD, up 12% in volume but down 10.8% in turnover compared to the same period in 2022. Among the textile and garment export groups of Vietnam, fiber and yarn are the group showing the clearest signs of recovery, as evidenced by the significant increase in export turnover of this item from July 2023 to now compared to the same months last year. It is estimated that Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn will continue to increase in the 4th quarter of 2023 when the global textile and garment market shows signs of recovery. In the US - Vietnam’s largest textile and garment export market - demand is forecast to increase for fashionable clothing for the end- of-year holiday season as US retail sales are forecast to increase 3-4% and recover to pre-pandemic levels. The EU market also shows significant recovery as Vietnam’s textile and garment exports to this market increased strongly in October 2023 compared to September 2023. Accordingly, demand for fibers, yarns and raw materials to serve textile and garment export production of many countries will increase. This will be an opportunity for Vietnam to export fiber and yarn in the coming time In October 2023, although Vietnam’s exports of fiber, yarn decreased to many markets compared to September 2023, however, exports to key markets all increased, with exports to South Korea and Bangladesh increasing at a double-digit rate. Compared to October 2022, Vietnam’s exports of fiber, and yarn to key markets in October 2023 all increased, except for exports to Bangladesh which decreased 7.7% in quantity and decreased 13.1% in value. In the first ten months of 2023, China was Vietnam’s largest export market for fiber and yarn, accounting for 49.4% in quantity and 53.1% in value. Notably, Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn to this market increased 21.7% in quantity and increased 2% in value compared to the same period in 2022. It can be seen that from April 2023 to now, Vietnam’s exports of fiber and yarn to the China have all increased compared to the same month in 2022, which caused Vietnam’s exports of these goods to China to increase in the first ten months of 2023. In contrast, Vietnam’s exports of fiber amd yarn decreased to many markets in the first ten months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, such as South Korea, the US, Bangladesh and Indonesia. 2.1 Export prices of fiber and yarn continued to decline Source: VITIC Vietnam’s export fiber and yarn in 2022-2023 (million USD) Jan Feb Mar Jun Apr Jul May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
  • 39. 39 NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Export price of fiber and yarn 2022-2023 (USD/ton) Source: VITIC Vietnam’s fiber and yarn export The average export price of Vietnam’s fiber and yarn in October 2023 reached US$2,389 per tonne, down 1.8% compared to September 2023 and down 9.5% compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam’s average export price of fiber and yarn was US$2,461 per tonne, down 20.4% compared to the same period in 2022. ThesurveyfoundthatVietnam’s export prices of fiber and yarn have been declining continuously since July 2023, following the downward trend in global cotton and fiber prices. It is expected that Vietnam’s export prices of fiber and yarn will continue to decline in November 2023, as world fiber and yarn prices remain in a downward trend. The average export price of Vietnam’s fiber and yarn decreased in many markets in October 2023, during which, the export prices of fiber and yarn exported to major markets such as China, South Korea, and the US all declined compared to September 2023, in contrast, exports to some markets still increased such as Bangladesh, Indonesia. In October 2023, the average export price of Vietnam’s fiber and yarn decreased in most markets compared to October 2022, during which, export prices to some markets decreased by double digits such as the US, Philippines, Taiwan, Colombia, Pakistan, Romania, Brazil. Source: VITIC
  • 40. 40 https://vcosa.vn NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 2023 Source: VITIC Export price of fiber and yarn 3. Cotton Outlook T his month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower production, mill use, and ending stocks. Production is reduced 314,000 bales to 12.8 million, largely due to a 500,000- bale decrease in the Texas crop. U.S. mill use is reduced 150,000 bales as spinning activity continues to lag, and at 1.9 million bales, is expected to be its lowest since 1884. Ending stocks are now projected 100,000 bales lower than in November at 3.1 million bales, or 22% percent of disappearance. The projected upland cotton season average farm price is unchanged at 77 cents per pound. The global December 2023/24 cotton balance sheet includes lower consumption and higher ending stocks than last month. World consumption is projected 1.6 million bales lower, largely due to a 1.0-million-bale reduction in China. Turkey’s consumption forecast is 400,000 bales lower, and the United States and Mexico are also down, while Bangladesh is up 100,000 bales. Global production is forecast 540,000 bales lower than in November as reductions for the United States, Turkey, and Mexico more than offset a 200,000-bale increase for Pakistan. World trade is down only slightly as larger expected imports by China – up 500,000 bales – nearly offset reductions in Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Larger expected exports by Turkey are more than offset by a 300,000-bale reduction for Brazil and smaller reductions elsewhere. World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 900,000 bales higher this month, with China’s projected stocks up 1.5 million bales. Total projected global stocks of 82.4 million bales are 72% of use. Source: Cotton Grower
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