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Newsletter February 2023
Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association
Collected & Edited: Information and Communication Dept.
February 2023
M
MO
ONTHL
NTHLY
Y R
RE
EP
PO
ORT
RT
Cotton and Yarn Statistic
--- For internal circulation only ---
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Newsletter February 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
REMARKABLE INFORMATION
É In 2023, the import price of cotton will continue to decrease
É The volume of imported raw fiber continues to decrease in the first months of 2023
É Import price of yarn increased slightly
É Export of textile fibers and yarns could not recover in the first quarter of 2023
É Vietnam wants textile, garment, footwear exports to hit $80 bn by 2025
É Cotton prices: be careful of what you wish for!
É Exhausted Pakistani exchange reserves hurt cotton textile feedstock import
É Brazil’s cotton exports to China jump many folds; not linked to US ban
É Global denim markets continues to stride ahead post-pandemic as demand grows
É Clothing companies look to reduce China manufacturing exposure
NATIONAL NEWS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
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Newsletter February 2023
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SPECIALIZED NEWS
Exhausted Pakistani exchange reserves
hurt cotton textile feedstock import
I
n January its CPI rose by 27.55%
year-on-year and its foreign
exchange reserve was nearly
exhausted. Pakistan is one of the
key manufacturing base of textile
and apparel, while textile is China’s
pillar industry, contributing around
8% of GDP. Pakistan used cotton
as the main feedstock for textile
and relied on imported feedstock
since it lacked chemical feedstock
at home, and the exhausted
exchange reserve therefore had
impact on its textile industry. In
2021 Pakistan imported around
900kt cotton, largely from US,
India and Brazil, 150kt PSF and
210kt VSF largely from China.
Pakistan’s imported volume of
three major feedstock in recent
years are showed in chart below:
Pakistan is a well-known
producer for global cotton. It
produced1310ktcottonin2021/22
season and the figure dropped
to 850kt in 2022/23 season,
suggesting a shortage of cotton
supply and a growing demand
for imported cotton. However, the
economic crisis in Pakistan already
made it difficult for imports of food
and energy resources, let alone
textile feedstock. So will orders
flow to other places?
Pakistan’s textile industry was
well developed and competitive in
global cotton market. In 2022 its
textile and apparel export reached
$18.66billion, up 7.5%. Knitwear,
garments, bedclothes, cotton
yarn fabric and towels accounted
for 90% of Pakistan’s textile and
apparel export. As can be seen
from its export structure, cotton
products, including bedclothes,
towels, cotton yarn fabric and
some knitwear and garments,
were competitive in global market.
Pakistan’s textile and apparel were
mainly sold to European market
such as US (30%), UK (10%), as
well as Germany, Netherlands,
Spain, Italy, Belgium and France
(all together accounted for 30%).
On Feb 11, Ministry of foreign affairs of CPC warned Chinese citizens to be
careful to go to Pakistan given its recent domestic security situation. Pakistan was in
a terrible situation of economic crisis and had to seek help from IMF.
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Newsletter February 2023
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Cotton prices: be careful of what you wish for!
L
ocally, the price effect has
so far not seemed to have
impacted export earnings,
which have declined despite
fetching higher unit prices during
6MFY23 over the corresponding
period last year. Over the following
months, volume exported could
witness an improvement as prices
continue to correct downwards;
however, it is hard to comment
whether the net revenue impact
of higher demand at weaker prices
would be positive or not.
Either way, the new normal
in world cotton prices has had a
very stark impact on global fiber
demand. According to USDA,
world cotton consumption is
now projected at a 9-year low
(excluding pandemic year), and at
10 percent lower than peak cotton
consumption of 123 million bales
(of 217kg), first achieved in 2007,
and reached only twice since. In
fact, over the past decade, world
cotton demand has averaged at
115 million bales, even as prices in
the international market averaged
at $1.80 per kg, and never above
$2.25 per kg.
The turbulence in Pakistan
may drive its European clients
to exporters with lower cost,
such as Bangladesh, India and
ASEAN regions, and even China.
China imported more than
300kt Pakistani cotton yarn in
2017-2019, and 260kt-280kt in
2020-2021.
Last year the imported volume
shrank to around 140kt due to
long-term high foreign offers.
Pakistan’s economic crisis will
undoubtedly influence China’s
cotton yarn import and requires
close attention.
Source: CCF Group
After three years of severe
volatility, it appears that world
cotton prices have finally begun
to find some semblance of
stability. In the two years since
the global pandemic, world prices
hit a 12-year low of $1.40 per kg,
and an 11-year high of $3.61 per
kg, finally settling in the vicinity
of $2.25 per kg in recent months.
But the hard-won stability hasn’t
come cheap, as the current price
is trading at 25 percent premium
over pre-Covid LT average.
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Demand slowdown is already
reflected in the stock build up
globally, with ending stock to use
ratio for the current marketing
year projected at its highest since
2014 (minus pandemic year
2020). Ideally, a strong enough
slowdown in demand should
push world prices to ease further.
Unfortunately that may be overly
simplistic assumption.
The assumption behind global
inventory buildup misses one
key element of the full picture:
China. The world’s largest cotton
producer is single-handedly
responsible for at least one-
quarter of global output, and
one-third of global consumption.
However, a ban by USA on textile
products made from cotton
originating from Xinjiang region of
China (that came into effect last
year) has basically cut off a sizable
chunk of raw material from global
supply chain.
Until recently, the region was
responsible for almost 90 percent
of Chinese cotton production,
feeding into the global value
chain of textile and garments
manufacturing that produced
goods with USA as their ultimate
destination. The Xinjiang ban has
effectively forced textiles and
garments exporting countries
such as Viet Nam, Bangladesh,
Turkey, and Pakistan to look for
raw material (either cotton fiber
or yarn and cloth) that originates
from non-Chinese origins. And
although Chinese import of
cotton has shrunk as a result,
the reduction isn’t nearly enough
to compensate for the forgone
raw material supply from China.
As a result, the tradable surplus
of cotton (or other intermediate
products such as yarn or cloth) in
the global market has diminished,
keeping prices at an elevated
level. Meanwhile, high global
energy prices – both Brent and gas
– have ensured that global PET
prices remain prohibitively high,
in turn elevating prices of cotton
substitutes such as polyester or
synthetic fibers.
Given that the supply side
shocks to world cotton market
have endured even as the impact
of pandemic has faded globally, it
may be a while before world cotton
prices return to pre-Covid territory.
At least not without a hard-hitting
global recession of levels similar
to GFC 2008-09. Those hoping
for lower cotton prices should be
careful of what they wish for!
Source: Business Recorder
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Global DENIM markets continues to stride ahead
post-pandemic as demand grows
I
t is expected by 2023, the size of
the market for denim jeans fabrics
will reach a stupendous 4,541
million meters as demand sores
globally. In the five years between
2018-23 the market is expanding
at 4.89 per cent annually from
3,576 million meters in 2018.
Denim is an apparel segment that
shows its true potential when it
comes to export diversification
with other apparel.
Analysts say, Christmas and
New Year holiday season has seen
a major revival of fashion resilience
in the US markets, which will
improve the entire global denim
market. Global jeans market is
expected to have a CAGR of 6.7
per cent during the forecast period
from 2020 to 2025.
Focus on new business
strategies and markets
Rome was not built in a
day and thus the bigger denim
manufacturers will need to adapt
new business strategies, such
as geographical and capacity
expansion, M&A, and R&D,
to boost sales. They need to
strategically focus on establishing
new market opportunities by
entering newer and niche markets
in the garment industry that are
still in their developmental phase.
As per an Apparel Resources
report, Indian domestic market
for denim has been maintaining
an average CAGR of 8-9 per cent
for few years and is expected
to reach the $12.27 billion by
2028. Unlike Europe, the US and
other western countries where
consumption per person average
jeans is very high, in India it is far
lesser with consumption of around
0.5 jeans per person as traditional
dressing is more popular in most
geographical segments.
To even reach the potential of
one pair of jeans per person will
require another 700 million pairs of
jeans to be sold annually and this
showcases the massive growth
After two difficult
Covid years of dressing
down days, the fashion
resilience of denim is being
felt once again. Every year,
over two billion jeans are
sold globally and apparel
manufacturers are now
focused on cashing onto
this lucrative segment in
post-pandemic days.
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opportunities in the country. No
wonder, global brands are rapidly
increasing their presence in metros
and small cities.
US leads the way
The US is currently the
largest market, with India likely
to experience the most growth,
followed by China and Latin
America. It is expected the US
market will be around 4,313.56
million meters in 2022 and
4,541.05 million meters in 2023
as between 2018 and 2023,
the average annual growth is
expected to be 4.89 per cent. India
is striding ahead as despite being
smaller than China, Latin America
and the US its market is expected
to grow at a fast rate arriving at
419.26 million meters in 2023
from 228.39 million meters in
2016.
In the global denim market
China, Bangladesh, Pakistan and
India are key denim-producing
countries. In denim export segment
in 2021-22, Bangladesh with over
40 mills producing 80 million
yards of denim fabrics remains at
the top position in the US markets.
This was followed by Mexico
and Pakistan as the third largest
supplier. Vietnam was in fourth
position after it shipped denim
items worth $348.64 million, up
25.12 per cent year-on-year.
Denim today has come a long
way in the fashion segment as
they appeal to everyone with
different varieties of stretch to
bio-polished, innovative colours
from vegetable-based, indigo to
sulphur dyed, fibre blends with the
most recent being softer, lighter,
comfortable silk denim for all
seasons and a variety of textures,
drapes and styles focused on the
athleisure and wellness current
trend. Denim is not just a fashion
apparel, it’s an everyday symbol
of style and a daily essential and
a must-have for almost everyone.
Source: Fashionating World
Brazil’s cotton exports to China jump many folds; not linked to US ban
B
razilian cotton has gained a
major market share in China,
even though the latter is
the largest cotton producer in
the world. Trade data indicates
that Brazil’s cotton exports have
soared in value and volume over
the last five years, with a sharp
increase between 2017 and 2020.
The increase is not linked to the
US’ ban on Xinjiang cotton.
Brazil exported 82.953 million
kg of cotton in 2017, valued at
$132.393 million. The value and
volume of exports more than
tripled to 302.981 million kg
($523.495 million) in 2018, and
further grew to 501.725 million
kg ($820.445 million) in 2019,
according to Fibre2Fashion’s
market insight tool TexPro.
Despite COVID-related
disruptions, Brazil exported
658.752 million kg of cotton
to China in 2020, valued at
$1,016.738 million. However,
the volume and value of exports
slightly fell to 582.985 million kg
($983.141 million) in 2021, and
further eased to 521.499 million
kg ($1,082.756 million) in 2022,
as per TexPro. Despite the decline
in shipments over the last two
years, the exports still increased
more than three times in terms of
volume and value.
The data suggests that the
surge in exports from Brazil
to China was not solely due
to Chinese importers seeking
alternative sources of cotton after
the US ban on cotton originating
from the Xinjiang region of China.
The US banned cotton from the
region in June 2022.
Source: Fibre2fashion
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Clothing companies look to
reduce China manufacturing exposure
A combination of supply chain
chaos, higher costs and concerns
about working conditions is forcing
some western fashion brands
to rethink their decades-old
dependence on factories in China.
Dieter Holzer, the former chief
executive and a board member of
Marc O’Polo, said the Swedish-
German fashion brand started to
swap some suppliers in the country
in favour of factories in Turkey and
Portugal in 2021. The decision
was meant to “balance and take
out risk from your supply chain
and make it more sustainable”,
he said. “I think many companies
across the industry are reviewing
their exposure [to China].”
The shift away from mass
textile production in the country,
albeit still in its early stages,
marks the reversal of years of
outsourcing to a region that has
come to dominate the textile
supply chain.
Big names such as Mango
and Dr Martens have recently cut
or signaled their intention to shift
manufacturing out of China or
south-east Asia. “The big message
is reducing reliance on China,” Dr
Martens’ chief executive Kenny
Wilson said in November. “You
don’t want all of your eggs in one
basket.”
The bootmaker has moved
55 per cent of its total production
out of the country since he took
over in 2018. Just 12 per cent
of its production for the 2022
autumn/winter collection was
manufactured in China compared
with 27 per cent in 2020 and it
estimated this will drop to 5 per
cent this year.
“We are being deafened by the
sound of clothes manufacturers
[moving] away from Asia,” said
Rosey Hurst, director of ethical
business consultancy Impactt.
The relocation was also being
driven by stricter laws being
introduced in the US and Europe
against labour abuses, she added,
following the alleged use of forced
labour in the cotton-rich territory
of Xinjiang in China.
Mango’s chief executive Toni
Ruiz said in December he was
considering buying less from
China “but we’ll be very alert to
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION AND NEW LABOR LAW
Brands have begun to shift away from mass textile production
in the country as they seek to reduce supply chain risks
A home textile enterprise in Binzhou, China © CFOTO/Future Publishing/ Getty Images
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how things evolve”. “What we’re
looking at is the extent to which
all this global sourcing, developed
over many years, might become
more local,” he said.
The shift was accelerated by
continued supply chain disruption
since the onset of the Covid-19
pandemic, which led to a jump in
freight costs, as well as significant
shipping delays as factory workers
at manufacturing hubs across Asia
fell ill or were forced to isolate.
One industry consultant said that
one retail client’s ski wear, from
a previous season, arrived in the
summer of 2022.
“For many, gone are the days
of manufacturing only in China
and shipping everywhere,” said
Todd Simms, vice-president at
supply chain intelligence platform
FourKites. “Disruptions have
increased costs to deliver finished
goods, making it easier to justify
operations in new countries in
exchange for more resilience,” he
added.
The financial incentives to remain
in the region are diminishing as wages
go up after years of cheap labour — a
major draw for many household names
to outsource manufacturing to far-flung
places. According to statistics from
China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the
average factory wage doubled between
2013 and 2021, from Rmb46,000
($6,689) per year to Rmb92,000.
Jose Calamonte, chief executive
of online fashion retailer Asos, told
investors at the company’s full-year
results presentation last year that
products manufactured in China were not as competitive as they seemed relative to Europe, once shipping
and transport costs were taken into account. “We try to think about the final [profit] margin once we’ve made
the final sale,” he said.
European clothing retailers’
efforts to cut delivery times, as
fashion trends and consumer
needs change quickly, is another
reason behind their decision to opt
for suppliers closer to home.
“We’ve been taking control
of our manufacturing,” said a
spokesman for a British luxury
brand, adding that the industry
has been consolidating in Europe
for years now. “This has been a
trend for reasons to do with speed
and efficiency.”
Plans to shift production away
fromAsiangarmenthubs,however,
are not that advanced owing to
their complexity. Countries such
as China and Vietnam represent
the lion’s share of textile exports,
according to 2020 data from
CEPII. For example, more than
half of suppliers to Inditex, the
world’s largest fashion retailer,
were based in Asia in 2021, only a
marginal reduction on 2018.
Turkey has been positioning
itself as a winner from western
brands moving their production,
not least because it is part of
the EU customs union, allowing
frictionless trade between member
states. “It is a popular destination
COMPETITION WITH SHEIN
10 https://vietnamyarnprice.com
and already used by the likes of
Hugo Boss, Adidas, Nike, Zara”,
said Simon Geale, executive
vice-president of procurement at
supply chain consultancy Proxima.
An increasingly important
consideration for retailers is
traceability in the supply chain
after years of widely reported
labour abuses. “[Because of US
laws against cotton from Xinjiang],
brands have to have much better
traceability, ” said Impactt’s Hurst.
“Then we have got European laws
[on forced labour] coming up. It is
putting pressure on the industry to
get a grip,” she said.
But she warned: “There isn’t
enough money in [international
supply chains] to run things the
way they should be done. [Given
the current economic crisis], that is
only going to get worse.”
Maximilian Albrecht, an
analyst at AlixPartners, said that
many fast fashion labels were
also abandoning China in order
to differentiate themselves from
Shein, the rapidly growing Chinese
fast fashion giant. “European
brands can’t match Shein on their
costs of production, their network
of production, their relationships,”
Albrecht said.
“I think you’ll see some brands
say ‘well, we can’t match that so
we’ll move to Europe’. You can still
sell the story that they have higher
quality products. Whether that’s
actually true is another thing”.
Source: Financial Times
T
he textile and garment
industry expects export
turnover to reach $50-52
billion in 2025 and $68-70 billion
in 2030, according to the strategy
document.
The strategy states that
developing the fashion industry
is considered a new direction.
Accordingly, this sector will focus
on developing designers, and raw
material supply, production and
distribution systems to form supply
chains and create sustainable
foundations for the development
of the domestic fashion industry
as well as fashion centres in Hanoi
and HCM City.
The strategy encourages
enterprises to gradually switch
their production methods to free-
on-board (FOB) and original design
manufacturer to add value to
products, and build a private brand
to improve the competitiveness of
the businesses and products.
The textile and garment
industry strives to have a
localisation rate of 51-55 per cent
in 2021-2025 and 56-60 per cent
in 2026-2030.
Domestic leather and footwear
enterprises need to actively
adapt to market requirements on
sustainable product development
standards, Nguyen Duc Thuan,
chairman of the Vietnam
Leather, Footwear and Handbag
Association (LEFASO), told a
domestic media outlet.
The strategy also mentions the
role of state management agencies
in encouraging enterprises to
invest in producing fibre, yarn,
textile and dyeing with advanced
technology and connections with
domestic garment enterprises.
Source: Fibre2Fashion
Vietnam wants textile, garment, footwear
exports to hit $80 bn by 2025
The textile, garment and
footwear sectors in Vietnam
aim to achieve exports
worth $77-80 billion in
2025 and $106-108 billion
in 2030, according to the
government strategy for the
development of the textile-
footwear industry. They
will encourage production
of fabrics from domestic
yarn to reduce imports, and
form a complete regional
supply and value chain.
Newsletter February 2023
Newsletter February 2023
Wakefield Inspection Services Ltd được thành lập tại Liverpool, Vương Quốc Anh từ năm 1993. Cho đến nay, có
hơn 20 công ty con đã được thành lập toàn cầu và việc mở rộng mạng lưới vẫn đang được tiếp diễn. Hiện tại WIS
đang hoạt động tại hơn 60 quốc gia và trở thành công ty dẫn đầu về ngành giám định bông thô trên toàn thế giới.
Qua hơn 20 năm cung cấp dịch vụ giám định tại thị trường Việt Nam, chúng tôi sung sướng thông báo rằng WIS có
thể cung cấp dịch vụ kiểm nghiệm bông thô tại phòng thí nghiệm HVI vừa được thành lập tại TP. Hồ Chì Minh.
Tại sao chọn WIS?
 Wakefield Inspection Services là công ty giám định dẫn đầu và được quốc tế công nhận.
 Có truyền thông lưu giữ nhân viên, giúp việc liên lạc với khách hàng của mình luôn thông suốt.
 Có đội ngũ nhân viên dày dạn kinh nghiệm.
 Duy trì việc đào tạo không ngừng.
 Cung cấp dịch vụ đúng nhu cầu của khách hàng, theo từng yêu cầu cụ thể.
 Có mạng lưới toàn cầu thông qua đội ngũ nhân viên địa phương.
 Có mạng lưới hỗ trợ toàn cầu.
Để biết thêm thông tin về các dịch vụ WIS hiện đang cung cấp, vui lòng liên lạc với chúng tôi qua email:
Info@wiscontrol.com / vit-ops@wiscontrol.com
Wakefield Inspection Services Ltd was established in Liverpool, England in 1993. Since WIS’ formation - over twenty Group
Companies have been established worldwide and this expansion continues today, WIS currently operates in over 60 countries
becoming the leading company in the inspection of raw cotton fibre.
Now having worked in Vietnam for the last 20 years WIS is pleased that they can offer the HVI testing of cotton in our testing
laboratory in Ho Chi Minh
Why Wakefield?
 Wakefield Inspection is an internationally recognised, and industry leading inspection company
 Staff retention, enabling a continuity of communication with our clients
 Providing staff with significant hands on experience
 Ongoing Training
 Customised services, tailored to your needs
 Global coverage via local, on the ground, staff
 A Group wide support network
For more information on what WIS can do for you, please contact:
Info@wiscontrol.com / vit-ops@wiscontrol.com
American Eagle Outfitters
Joins U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol
The U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol (“Trust Protocol”) has announce the membership of American Eagle
Outfitters, Inc. (“AEO”). AEO is a leading global specialty retailer offering high-quality, on-trend
clothing, accessories and personal care products through its American Eagle, Aerie, OFFL/NE by
Aerie, Todd Snyder and Unsubscribed brands.
Trust Protocol membership will support AEO in its continued efforts to provide greater
transparency, communication and standardized reporting of its ESG progress. Underpinned by a
focus on optimism, AEO’s Building a Better World ESG strategy is centered on three key areas:
planet (environment), people (social) and practices (governance). Notably, the company has set
specific goals to achieve carbon neutrality in its owned and operated locations and significantly
reduce water use, among other sustainability initiatives.
The Trust Protocol is the only sustainable cotton system that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals
and measurement and drives continuous improvement in six key sustainability metrics – land use,
soil carbon, water management, soil loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy efficiency. The
Trust Protocol integrates these sustainability metrics from Field to Market’s Fieldprint® Platform,
enabling enrolled growers to measure the environmental impacts of their operation and identify
opportunities for continuous improvement.
To join The Trust Protocol, visit TrustUSCotton.org.
ABOUT THE U.S. COTTON TRUST PROTOCOL
Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol was designed to set a new standard in more
sustainably grown cotton, ensuring that it contributes to the protection and preservation of the
planet, using the most sustainable and responsible techniques. It is the only farm-level, science-
based program that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement in six key sustainability
metrics as well as article-level supply chain transparency.
The Trust Protocol is overseen by a multi-stakeholder Board of Directors comprised of
representatives from brands and retailers, civil society and independent sustainability experts as
well as the cotton-growing industry, including growers, ginners, merchants, wholesalers and
cooperatives, mills and cottonseed handlers.
Newsletter February 2023
JOIN NOW
To learn more or
become a member,
TrustUSCotton.org
Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton
Trust Protocol was designed
to set a new standard in more
sustainably grown cotton,
ensuring that it contributes to
the protection and preservation
of the planet, using the most
sustainable and responsible
techniques. It is the only system
that provides quantifiable, verifiable
goals and measurement in six key
sustainability metrics and article-
level supply chain transparency.
The Trust Protocol provides brands
and retailers the critical assurances
they need to show the cotton fiber
element of their supply chain is
more sustainably grown with lower
environmental and social risk.
SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE
SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION
Trust in a smarter cotton future.
14
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EVENT WAS ORGANIZED IN FEB 2023
On February 15th-17th 2023, VCOSA in
collaborationwiththeInternationalCottonAssociation
(ICA), under the sponsorship of the Cotton Council
International (CCI), successfully organized a training
course - Trade Matters 2023 in HCMC.
VCOSA congratulates those who have completed
the course and successfully passed the exam to
receive the ICA certificate. We will keep working with
partners to bring useful programs, contributing to
the development of Vietnam’s cotton, fiber and yarn
industry..
Some pictures at the workshop training:
Attendees actively discuss topics and situations that
ICA experts raised at the session.
VCOSA’S
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S EVENT
All attendees successfully passed the exam, received ICA certificates
and took photos with the Organizing Committee.
VCOSA’s representative presented gifts and honored CCI sponsors, as well as thanked
and expressed gratitude to ICA for accompanying the Organizing Committee.
Concentrate on taking the exam for 60 minutes.
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REPORT AND DATABASE
In January 2023, Vietnam imported 69.9 thousand
tons of cotton, worth $175.1 million, down 30.5%
in volume and down 32.4% in value compared to the
previous month, down 45.5% in volume and down
44.9% in value compared to January 2022.
Fiber & yarn imported into Vietnam was 60.6
thousand tons, worth 136 million USD, down 25.7%
in volume and down 17.3% in value over the previous
month; down 35.1% in volume and down 41.8% in
value compared to January 2022.
According to preliminary data in
January 2023, Vietnam imported 69.9
thousand tons of cotton, down 30.5%
from the previous month. Imported
of textile fibers and yarns was 60.6
thousand tons, down 25.7% over the
previous month.
According to the latest import
and export data from the General
Department of Customs, in January
2023,Vietnamimportedcottonworth
175.1 million USD, down 32.4% over
the previous month; fiber and yarn
imports valued at 136 million USD,
down 17.3%; fabric imports valued at
936 million USD, down 9.1%; import
of raw materials for textile, garment,
leather and footwear decreased
by 16% compared to the previous
month, valued at 377.4 million USD.
1. Monthly Import Statistics
19
www.vcosa.org.vn
Newsletter February 2023
In the first month of 2023, Vietnam imported
cotton worth 175.1million USD, down 44.9% over
the same period last year; import of fiber and yarn
valued at 136 million USD, down 41.8%; import
of fabric valued at 936 million USD, down 33.4%;
import of raw materials for textile, garment, leather
and footwear decreased by 33.9% over the same
period last year, worth 377.4 million USD.
According to preliminary
data in January 2023, imported
of fiber and yarn was about 60.6
thousand tons, down 25.7%
compared to the previous month,
down 35.1% over the same
period last year.
According to preliminary
data in January 2023, Vietnam
imported 69.9 thousand tons of
cotton, down 30.5% from the
previous month, down 45.5%
over the same period last year.
20
Newsletter February 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
R
aw cotton is one of the main
groups of imported textile
materials and accessories of
Vietnam, after fabrics and other
textile and garment materials and
accessories, accounting for 14.4%
of the total import value. In 2022,
according to statistics from the
General Department of Customs,
imports of this group of goods into
Vietnam reached 1.43 million tons,
worth 4.03 billion USD, down
14.6% in volume but up 24.5% in
value compared to 2021.
In December 2022 alone,
Vietnam’s raw cotton imports
reached 100.53 thousand tons,
worth 259.24 million USD, down
24.5% in volume and 31.6% in
value compared to November
2022, down 9.1% in volume but
up 5.4% in value compared to
December 2021.
In 2022, there are 10 markets
supplying raw cotton to Vietnam,
down 1 market compared to 2021.
Vietnam’s raw cotton imports from
some main markets decreased
compared to 2021 such as the US
and India, Brazil... Specifically:
Cotton imports from the US
market are the largest in 2022,
reaching 447 thousand tons, worth
1.31 billion USD, down 26.1%
in volume but up 11.9% in value
compared to 2021, accounting
for 31.2% of total cotton imports.
Particularly in December 2022,
cotton imports from this market
reached 6.32 thousand tons,
worth 15.76 million USD, down
37.1% in volume and 39.8% in
value compared to 2021.
In 2022, cotton imports from
the Australian market increased by
53.3% in volume and 110.6% in
value compared to 2021, reaching
422 thousand tons, worth 1.27
billion USD. Particularly in
December 2022, cotton imports
from this market reached 41.68
thousand tons, worth 116.48
million USD, down 48.7% in
volume and 8.1% in value
compared to November 2022,
an increase of 15.5% in volume
and 32.9% in value compared to
December 2021.
In addition, cotton imports
from some other markets
decreased sharply in volume in
2022 compared to 2021 such as:
imports from the Indian market
decreased by 45%; from Ivory
Coast down 45.9%; from Indonesia
decreased by 57.1%.
1.1. In 2023, the import price of cotton will continue to decrease
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
Vietnam’s cotton import
Vietnam’s import cottons in 2021-2022 (thousand tons)
21
www.vcosa.org.vn
Newsletter February 2023
The average import price of cotton in 2021-2022 (USD/ton)
US cotton price in 2022 (USD/pound)
About price: The price of cotton imported into
Vietnam in December 2022 was at $2,579/ton,
down 9.5% compared to November 2022 but up
16% compared to December 2021. Thus, December
2022 is the fourth consecutive month that the price of
imported cotton materials into Vietnam has decreased
since reaching a peak in August 2022.
In general, in 2022, the price of cotton materials
imported to Vietnam averaged $2,807/ton, up 45.8%
compared to 2021.
World cotton prices fell due
to weak demand. In the Chinese
market, according to the market of
energy commodities and industrial
raw materials from https://
dautuhanghoa.vn/, the cotton
import data of China - the world’s
largest cotton consuming country
has remained quite dim in recent
weeks, although the Government
of this country has gradually eased
measures to prevent the spread
of the Covid-19 epidemic, putting
pressure on prices.
Facing the downward trend of
world cotton prices, it is forecasted
that the price of imported cotton
materials into Vietnam will also
decrease in the first months of
2023 but the decrease is not much.
The average price of imported cotton from major
markets in December 2022 decreased compared
to November 2022. In which, the price of cotton
imported from the US market decreased by 4.2% to
2,493 USD/ton, the price of cotton imported from the
Australian market decreased by 8.5% to 2,794 USD/
ton, the price of cotton imported from the Brazilian
market decreased. 3.9% down to 2,526 USD/ton.
It can be seen that the price of
Vietnam’s imported cotton tends to
decrease according to the world cotton
price.
In the US, according to data from
https://www.macrotrends.net/, US
cotton prices have also corrected down
in recent months, from $0.86/lb at the
end of November 2022, fell to $0.83/
lb at the end of 2022 and continued to
decline in the first half of January 2023,
with cotton prices as of January 13,
2023 at $0.82/lb.
Source: VITIC
Source: macrotrends.net
22
Newsletter February 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Import price of cotton
Vietnam’s import fiber in 2021-2022 (thousand tons)
Source: VITIC
According to statistics of the
General Department of
Customs, the volume of imported
fiber materials of Vietnam in
December 2022 reached 33.56
thousand tons, worth 42.09 million
USD, up 15% in volume and 5.9 %
in value compared to November
2022; down 26.5% in volume
and 29.9% in value compared to
December 2021.
In general, in 2022, the volume
of imported fiber materials to
Vietnam reached 363 thousand
tons, worth 507 million USD,
down 9.1% in volume and 1.1% in
value compared to 2021.
The world fiber market is
slowing down, the world fiber price
continues to fall. In the domestic
market, the lack of export textile
and garment orders has resulted in
high inventories of finished cotton
fibers in most textile factories,
reducing the operating speed of
textile enterprises.
With the above factors, it is
forecast that the volume and price
of imported fiber into Vietnam will
continue to decrease in the first
months of 2023.
In 2022, Vietnam imported
raw fiber from 30 markets, an
increase of 1 market compared
to 2021. In which, China is the
largest supplier of raw fiber to
Vietnam, with an import volume
of 158,01 thousand tons, worth
204.15 million USD, accounting
for 47.8% of the total import
volume, down 10.4% in volume
and 2.7% in value compared to
2021. Particularly in December
2022, imports export of raw fiber
from China to Vietnam reached
15.9 thousand tons, worth 18.97
million USD, up 26.5% in volume
and 22.2% in value; down 31.4%
in volume and 33.1% in value
compared to December 2021.
Import of raw fiber from
Taiwan market in 2022 reached
51.85 thousand tons, worth 68.27
million USD, accounting for 15.7%
of total import of raw fiber of
1.2. Thevolumeofimportedrawfibercontinuestodecreaseinthefirstmonthsof2023
23
www.vcosa.org.vn
Newsletter February 2023
Vietnam’s fiber import
Import price of fiber 2021-2022 (USD/ton)
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
Vietnam, down 10.4% in volume
but increased 5.3% in value
compared to 2021. In December
2022 alone, imports of raw fiber
from Taiwan market reached
4.57 thousand tons, worth 5.05
million USD, up 24.9 % in volume
and 13.1% in value compared to
November 2022; down 17.6% and
down 25.2% in value compared to
December 2021.
In general, in 2022, imports
of raw fibers from major markets
into Vietnam decreased, except
for imports from Thailand, which
increased by 17.1% in volume.
Notably, the import volume
of fibers from some markets
increased strongly in 2022 such as
imports from Germany increased
by 474.5% in volume, from Greece
increased by 5,213%.
About price: In December 2022, the price of
imported fiber materials to Vietnam averaged $1,254/
ton, down 7.9% compared to November 2022 and
down 4.6% compared to December 2021. In which,
the lowest price of raw materials imported from
Taiwan reached 1,105 USD/ton; next is from Thailand
at 1,140 USD/ton… and the highest import price from
Singapore is 3,500 USD/ton.
In general, in 2022, the average import price of
fiber materials into Vietnam will reach 1,396 USD/
ton, an increase of 8.8% compared to 2021.
24
Newsletter February 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Import price of fiber
Vietnam’s import yarn in 2021-2022 (thousand tons)
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
A
ccording to statistics from the General
Department of Customs, import of raw yarn in
December 2022 reached 44.76 thousand tons,
worth USD 123.55 million, down 14.5% in volume
and 10.1% in value compared to November 2022,
down 29.2% in volume and 36.2% in value compared
to December 2021.
In general, in 2022, the import volume of raw yarn
reached 681 thousand tons, worth 2.03 billion USD,
down 5.5% in volume but up 0.2% in value compared
to 2021.
China is the largest source of
yarn for Vietnam in 2022, with
imports reaching 448 thousand
tons, worth $1.21 billion,
accounting for 65.9% of total
imports, up 1.5 % in volume and
6% in value compared to 2021. In
December 2022 alone, the amount
of raw yarn imported from this
market reached 32.01 thousand
tons, worth 77.28 million USD,
down 17, 4% in volume and 13.7%
in value compared to November
2022; down 20.8% in volume
and 32% in value compared to
December 2021.
Import of raw yarn from
Taiwan market in 2022 reached
91.45 thousand tons, worth
USD 258.19 million, accounting
for 13.4% of Vietnam’s total
import of raw yarn, down 7.3%
in volume but increased by 0.9%
in value compared to 2021.
1.3. Import price of yarn increased slightly
25
www.vcosa.org.vn
Newsletter February 2023
Vietnam’s yarn import
Import price of yarn 2021-2022 (USD/ton)
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
In December 2022, imports of raw
yarn from Taiwan market reached
5.38 thousand tons, worth 14.92
million USD, down 13% in volume.
and 14.4% decrease in value
compared to November 2022;
down 31.3% in volume and 35.4%
in value compared to December
2021.
In general, in 2022, imports
of raw materials from the main
supplying markets all decreased
compared to 2021, except for
imports from the Chinese market,
which increased slightly by 1.5%
in volume.
In terms of price: Import price of raw yarn
increased again after 2 consecutive months of decline,
reaching USD 2,760/ton in December 2022, up
5.2% compared to November 2022 but down 9.9%
compared to December. 2021. In general, in 2022,
the price of imported raw materials to Vietnam will
average 2,989 USD/ton, up 6% compared to 2021.
In which, the price of raw yarn imported from
China was the lowest, reaching 2,414 USD/ton;
followed by Taiwan market at US$2,771/ton… and
the highest import price from Hong Kong market was
US$7,998/ton.
26
Newsletter February 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
The prospect of a recovery
in world garment demand is a
factor driving up yarn prices. With
data showing inflation cooling in
Europe and the US, markets expect
the global economy to avoid
a severe recession, potentially
boosting apparel purchases. In
particular, the world’s largest
clothing market, China, abolished
the strict Zero Covid policy, further
increasing these expectations.
In 2023, it is forecast that the
world economy will still face many
difficulties, the total world textile
and garment demand is about 700
billion USD, down 8% compared to
2022. However, with the forecast
that the total world textile and
garment demand will recover in
the second half of 2023, this will
lead to increased import demand
for textile materials in general and
yarn imports in particular.
The price of imported raw
yarn into Vietnam has increased
in December 2022, however, the
market demand is still weak, along
with that, the world import price
of raw yarn has not yet adjusted
sharply. Import price of raw yarn
into Vietnam will only increase
slightly in the coming time.
Import price of yarn
Source: VITIC
— All data are accurate, relevant and verified from sources: the Ministry of Industry and
Trade, General Department of Vietnam Customs, General Statistics Office of Vietnam,
International Trade Center, Cotton Incorporated and other reliable sources.
— This text provides general information. VCOSA assumes no liability for the information
given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display
more up-to-date data than referenced in the text.
Communication and Information Department
27
www.vcosa.org.vn
Newsletter February 2023
In January 2023, Vietnam exported 88.1 thousand
tons of fiber and yarn, worth US$225.5 million,
down 33.8% in volume and down 30.7% in value
over the previous month; down 38.9% in volume and
down 52.4% in value compared to January 2022.
2. Monthly Export Statistics
Fiber and yarn exports in
1/2023 reached US$225.5
million, down 30.7% over
the previous month; fabric
exports reached 152.7
million USD, down 30%;
export of raw materials for
textile, garment, leather
and footwear reached 121.2
million USD, down 29.7%;
technical fabric exports
decreased 7.7% month on
month, worth $57.8 million.
Vietnam’s fiber and yarn
exports in January 2023
reached 88.1 thousand tons,
worth 225.5 million USD, down
33.8% in volume and down
30.7% in value compared to the
previous month.
28
Newsletter February 2023
https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Textile and garment
exports in January 2023
reached 2.25 billion USD,
down 22.4% from the
previous month.
According to
preliminary data
in January 2023,
textile and garment
exports reached
2.25 billion USD,
down 37.6% over
the same period
last year.
In the first month
of 2023, Vietnam’s
fiber and yarn exports
were valued at 225.5
million USD, down
52.4% over the same
period last year; fabric
exports reached 152.7
million USD, down
39.2%; export of
textile, garment and
footwear raw materials
reached 121.2 million
USD, down 39.4%;
technical fabric exports
decreased by 22.5%,
valued at 57.8 million
USD.
29
www.vcosa.org.vn
Newsletter February 2023
T
extile fibers are one of the
items that account for a large
proportion of Vietnam’s
export textile and garment groups
and raw materials, accounting for
13.6% of total export turnover
in 2022. Notably, this product’s
export of Vietnam, after growing
significantly in the first months of
2022, has decreased again in the
last months of the year.
According to statistics from
the General Department of
Customs, for the whole year of
2022, Vietnam’s exports of textile
fibers and yarns reached 1,573
thousand tons, with a turnover of
4.713 billion USD, down 18.4%
in volume and 16% in value
compared to 2021.
In December 2022 alone,
Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers
and yarns reached 133 thousand
tons, worth 325.3 million USD,
up 11.4% in volume and 6.8% in
turnover compared to November
2022; down 16.2% in volume
and 38.8% in value compared to
December 2021.
2.1. Exportoftextilefibersandyarnscouldnotrecoverinthefirstquarterof2023
Source: VITIC
Source: VITIC
In terms of prices: The unit price of Vietnam’s
fiber and textile exports has decreased continuously
in recent months and reached an average of $2,445/
ton in December 2022, down 4.14% compared
to November 2022 and down 27% compared to
December 2021. December 2022 is the eighth
consecutive month for the export unit price of textile
fibers and yarns to decrease.
Although the global price of cotton and fiber
materialshasdecreasedsignificantlyinrecentmonths,
besides, transportation costs have also decreased,
but due to the weak global demand for textiles, the
demand for raw materials has been reduced, this is
the main reason why the average export unit price of
Vietnam’s fiber and textile yarn groups has decreased
continuously in recent months.
In general, in 2022, the average export unit price
of Vietnam’s textile fibers and yarns reached 2,995.2
USD/ton, up 2.9% compared to 2021.
Vietnam’s export fiber and yarn in 2021-2022 (million USD)
Export price of fiber and yarn 2021-2022 (USD/ton)
30 https://vietnamyarnprice.com
Export price of fiber and yarn
Source: VITIC
Export market:
In 2022, Vietnam exports
textile fibers and yarns of all kinds
mainly to the Chinese market,
accounting for 45.16% of the total
volume and 46.27% of the total
export turnover. However, the
export of this item to the Chinese
market has decreased significantly
compared to 2021, with a
decrease of 30.8% in volume and
26.9% in turnover, respectively. It
can be seen that the Zero Covid
policy that China implemented has
significantly affected the activities
of the economy of this country,
along with that, the tightening of
goods import activities through
border gates with Vietnam has
also affected causing disruption
to Vietnam’s export of goods to
China, including fibers and textiles.
Besides China, Vietnam’s
exports of textile fibers and fibers
to some other markets will also
decrease in 2022 such as Korea,
Taiwan, Brazil, Cambodia...
On the other hand, Vietnam’s
exports of textile fibers and fibers
to a number of markets increased
in 2022 compared to 2021 such
as India and Thailand, especially
exports to the Philippines market
increased by 276.1% in volume
and increased by 362% in turnover.
It can be seen that, although
Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers
and yarns to the Chinese market
decreased significantly in 2022,
however, with the reopening of
the economy from January 8, 2023
of China has can help Vietnam’s
fiber and yarn exports to this
market increase again because this
is the export market that accounts
for the highest proportion of the
total export turnover of this item
for many years.
Assessing the export situation
of Vietnam’s textile fibers and
yarns in the coming time, it is
found that, although there are
positive signals from the main
export market, China, the global
demand for textiles and garments
is still strong. According to many
forecasts, it will remain bleak until
the middle of 2023, therefore,
Vietnam’s exports of fiber and
textile fibers will still be difficult to
recover at least until the end of the
first quarter of 2023.
Newsletter February 2023
Newsletter February 2023
Vietnam’s fiber and yarn export
Source: VITIC
Newsletter February 2023
32 https://vietnamyarnprice.com
The latest USDA report
featured decreases to forecasts for
global production (-332,000 bales
to 115.4 million) and mill-use
(-846,000 bales to 110.9 million)
in the 2022/23 crop year. Revisions
to historical figures lowered
beginning stocks (-148,000 bales
to 85.3 million). The net result for
the forecast to world ending stocks
was a +372,000 bale addition (to
89.9 million).
If realized, this would be the
highest volume of global stocks
outside of the crop year most
affected by the onset of COVID
(2019/20) and the period of high
Chinese reserves (2012/13-
2015/16). The current projection
for the world stocks-to-use ratio
is 80.5%, about eight percentage
points higher than last crop year
and about ten points higher than
in 2020/21.
At the country-level, the
largest revisions to production
figures were for India (-1.0 million
bales to 26.5 million), Brazil
(+300,000 bales to 13.3 million),
and the U.S. (+438,0000 bales to
14.7 million).
For mill-use, the largest
changes were for India (-500,000
bales to 22.5 million), Indonesia
(-250,000 bales to 2.2 million),
and Vietnam (- 100,000 bales to
6.4 million).
The global trade forecast was
lowered -645,000 bales to 41.6
million. For imports, the largest
changes were for China (-250,000
to 7.8 million), Indonesia (-250,000
bales to 2.2 million), and Vietnam
(-200,000 bales to 6.4 million).
For exports, the largest changes
were for India (-250,000 bales to
3.1 million) and the U.S. (-250,000
bales to 12.0 million).
Chinese cotton prices have
been edging higher since early
January. This has created some
separation between prices in
what traditionally is the world’s
largest import market and average
export prices (the A Index). The
current gap is about eight cents/
lb. That separation will need to
widen to make imports more
attractive (CC Index is commonly
15-20 cents/lb higher than the A
Index), but it has marked progress
that may eventually lead to more
international trade.
If the demand side of the fiber
market strengthens in coming
months, supply-related issues
could become more important
for price direction. Current prices
remain high by historical standards
(A Index is trading near 100 cents/
lb), but input costs are also high.
Improved weather in West Texas
and Pakistan could be mitigating
factors for production, but in the
U.S., Brazil, and other locations
sensitive to relative crop prices,
input costs and competitive prices
for corn and soybeans can be
expected to cause lower planted
acreage for 2023/24.
Source: CI
3. Cotton Outlook
Newsletter February 2023
Newsletter February 2023
33
www.vcosa.org.vn
Source: CI
Newsletter February 2023
Head Office
15/Fl., Block B, Viettel Complex Tower, 285 Cach Mang Thang Tam str., ward 12, dist. 10,
Ho Chi Minh city
Representative Office
Room 403, 4/Fl., Ocean Park Tower, 01 Dao Duy Anh str., Phuong Mai ward, Dong Da dist.,
Ha Noi city
Office (mailing address)
1265 Hoang Sa str., Ward 5, Tan Binh Dist., Ho Chi Minh city
œ +84 902 379 490
œ info@vcosa.org.vn
œ www.vcosa.org.vn

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VCOSA - VIETNAM COTTON - YARN MARKET REPORT - 02/2023 ISSUE

  • 1. Newsletter February 2023 Vietnam Cotton and Spinning Association Collected & Edited: Information and Communication Dept. February 2023 M MO ONTHL NTHLY Y R RE EP PO ORT RT Cotton and Yarn Statistic --- For internal circulation only ---
  • 2. 2 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com REMARKABLE INFORMATION É In 2023, the import price of cotton will continue to decrease É The volume of imported raw fiber continues to decrease in the first months of 2023 É Import price of yarn increased slightly É Export of textile fibers and yarns could not recover in the first quarter of 2023 É Vietnam wants textile, garment, footwear exports to hit $80 bn by 2025 É Cotton prices: be careful of what you wish for! É Exhausted Pakistani exchange reserves hurt cotton textile feedstock import É Brazil’s cotton exports to China jump many folds; not linked to US ban É Global denim markets continues to stride ahead post-pandemic as demand grows É Clothing companies look to reduce China manufacturing exposure NATIONAL NEWS INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • 3. 3 Newsletter February 2023 www.vcosa.org.vn SPECIALIZED NEWS Exhausted Pakistani exchange reserves hurt cotton textile feedstock import I n January its CPI rose by 27.55% year-on-year and its foreign exchange reserve was nearly exhausted. Pakistan is one of the key manufacturing base of textile and apparel, while textile is China’s pillar industry, contributing around 8% of GDP. Pakistan used cotton as the main feedstock for textile and relied on imported feedstock since it lacked chemical feedstock at home, and the exhausted exchange reserve therefore had impact on its textile industry. In 2021 Pakistan imported around 900kt cotton, largely from US, India and Brazil, 150kt PSF and 210kt VSF largely from China. Pakistan’s imported volume of three major feedstock in recent years are showed in chart below: Pakistan is a well-known producer for global cotton. It produced1310ktcottonin2021/22 season and the figure dropped to 850kt in 2022/23 season, suggesting a shortage of cotton supply and a growing demand for imported cotton. However, the economic crisis in Pakistan already made it difficult for imports of food and energy resources, let alone textile feedstock. So will orders flow to other places? Pakistan’s textile industry was well developed and competitive in global cotton market. In 2022 its textile and apparel export reached $18.66billion, up 7.5%. Knitwear, garments, bedclothes, cotton yarn fabric and towels accounted for 90% of Pakistan’s textile and apparel export. As can be seen from its export structure, cotton products, including bedclothes, towels, cotton yarn fabric and some knitwear and garments, were competitive in global market. Pakistan’s textile and apparel were mainly sold to European market such as US (30%), UK (10%), as well as Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Belgium and France (all together accounted for 30%). On Feb 11, Ministry of foreign affairs of CPC warned Chinese citizens to be careful to go to Pakistan given its recent domestic security situation. Pakistan was in a terrible situation of economic crisis and had to seek help from IMF.
  • 4. 4 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Cotton prices: be careful of what you wish for! L ocally, the price effect has so far not seemed to have impacted export earnings, which have declined despite fetching higher unit prices during 6MFY23 over the corresponding period last year. Over the following months, volume exported could witness an improvement as prices continue to correct downwards; however, it is hard to comment whether the net revenue impact of higher demand at weaker prices would be positive or not. Either way, the new normal in world cotton prices has had a very stark impact on global fiber demand. According to USDA, world cotton consumption is now projected at a 9-year low (excluding pandemic year), and at 10 percent lower than peak cotton consumption of 123 million bales (of 217kg), first achieved in 2007, and reached only twice since. In fact, over the past decade, world cotton demand has averaged at 115 million bales, even as prices in the international market averaged at $1.80 per kg, and never above $2.25 per kg. The turbulence in Pakistan may drive its European clients to exporters with lower cost, such as Bangladesh, India and ASEAN regions, and even China. China imported more than 300kt Pakistani cotton yarn in 2017-2019, and 260kt-280kt in 2020-2021. Last year the imported volume shrank to around 140kt due to long-term high foreign offers. Pakistan’s economic crisis will undoubtedly influence China’s cotton yarn import and requires close attention. Source: CCF Group After three years of severe volatility, it appears that world cotton prices have finally begun to find some semblance of stability. In the two years since the global pandemic, world prices hit a 12-year low of $1.40 per kg, and an 11-year high of $3.61 per kg, finally settling in the vicinity of $2.25 per kg in recent months. But the hard-won stability hasn’t come cheap, as the current price is trading at 25 percent premium over pre-Covid LT average.
  • 5. 5 Newsletter February 2023 www.vcosa.org.vn Demand slowdown is already reflected in the stock build up globally, with ending stock to use ratio for the current marketing year projected at its highest since 2014 (minus pandemic year 2020). Ideally, a strong enough slowdown in demand should push world prices to ease further. Unfortunately that may be overly simplistic assumption. The assumption behind global inventory buildup misses one key element of the full picture: China. The world’s largest cotton producer is single-handedly responsible for at least one- quarter of global output, and one-third of global consumption. However, a ban by USA on textile products made from cotton originating from Xinjiang region of China (that came into effect last year) has basically cut off a sizable chunk of raw material from global supply chain. Until recently, the region was responsible for almost 90 percent of Chinese cotton production, feeding into the global value chain of textile and garments manufacturing that produced goods with USA as their ultimate destination. The Xinjiang ban has effectively forced textiles and garments exporting countries such as Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Pakistan to look for raw material (either cotton fiber or yarn and cloth) that originates from non-Chinese origins. And although Chinese import of cotton has shrunk as a result, the reduction isn’t nearly enough to compensate for the forgone raw material supply from China. As a result, the tradable surplus of cotton (or other intermediate products such as yarn or cloth) in the global market has diminished, keeping prices at an elevated level. Meanwhile, high global energy prices – both Brent and gas – have ensured that global PET prices remain prohibitively high, in turn elevating prices of cotton substitutes such as polyester or synthetic fibers. Given that the supply side shocks to world cotton market have endured even as the impact of pandemic has faded globally, it may be a while before world cotton prices return to pre-Covid territory. At least not without a hard-hitting global recession of levels similar to GFC 2008-09. Those hoping for lower cotton prices should be careful of what they wish for! Source: Business Recorder
  • 6. 6 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Global DENIM markets continues to stride ahead post-pandemic as demand grows I t is expected by 2023, the size of the market for denim jeans fabrics will reach a stupendous 4,541 million meters as demand sores globally. In the five years between 2018-23 the market is expanding at 4.89 per cent annually from 3,576 million meters in 2018. Denim is an apparel segment that shows its true potential when it comes to export diversification with other apparel. Analysts say, Christmas and New Year holiday season has seen a major revival of fashion resilience in the US markets, which will improve the entire global denim market. Global jeans market is expected to have a CAGR of 6.7 per cent during the forecast period from 2020 to 2025. Focus on new business strategies and markets Rome was not built in a day and thus the bigger denim manufacturers will need to adapt new business strategies, such as geographical and capacity expansion, M&A, and R&D, to boost sales. They need to strategically focus on establishing new market opportunities by entering newer and niche markets in the garment industry that are still in their developmental phase. As per an Apparel Resources report, Indian domestic market for denim has been maintaining an average CAGR of 8-9 per cent for few years and is expected to reach the $12.27 billion by 2028. Unlike Europe, the US and other western countries where consumption per person average jeans is very high, in India it is far lesser with consumption of around 0.5 jeans per person as traditional dressing is more popular in most geographical segments. To even reach the potential of one pair of jeans per person will require another 700 million pairs of jeans to be sold annually and this showcases the massive growth After two difficult Covid years of dressing down days, the fashion resilience of denim is being felt once again. Every year, over two billion jeans are sold globally and apparel manufacturers are now focused on cashing onto this lucrative segment in post-pandemic days.
  • 7. 7 Newsletter February 2023 www.vcosa.org.vn opportunities in the country. No wonder, global brands are rapidly increasing their presence in metros and small cities. US leads the way The US is currently the largest market, with India likely to experience the most growth, followed by China and Latin America. It is expected the US market will be around 4,313.56 million meters in 2022 and 4,541.05 million meters in 2023 as between 2018 and 2023, the average annual growth is expected to be 4.89 per cent. India is striding ahead as despite being smaller than China, Latin America and the US its market is expected to grow at a fast rate arriving at 419.26 million meters in 2023 from 228.39 million meters in 2016. In the global denim market China, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are key denim-producing countries. In denim export segment in 2021-22, Bangladesh with over 40 mills producing 80 million yards of denim fabrics remains at the top position in the US markets. This was followed by Mexico and Pakistan as the third largest supplier. Vietnam was in fourth position after it shipped denim items worth $348.64 million, up 25.12 per cent year-on-year. Denim today has come a long way in the fashion segment as they appeal to everyone with different varieties of stretch to bio-polished, innovative colours from vegetable-based, indigo to sulphur dyed, fibre blends with the most recent being softer, lighter, comfortable silk denim for all seasons and a variety of textures, drapes and styles focused on the athleisure and wellness current trend. Denim is not just a fashion apparel, it’s an everyday symbol of style and a daily essential and a must-have for almost everyone. Source: Fashionating World Brazil’s cotton exports to China jump many folds; not linked to US ban B razilian cotton has gained a major market share in China, even though the latter is the largest cotton producer in the world. Trade data indicates that Brazil’s cotton exports have soared in value and volume over the last five years, with a sharp increase between 2017 and 2020. The increase is not linked to the US’ ban on Xinjiang cotton. Brazil exported 82.953 million kg of cotton in 2017, valued at $132.393 million. The value and volume of exports more than tripled to 302.981 million kg ($523.495 million) in 2018, and further grew to 501.725 million kg ($820.445 million) in 2019, according to Fibre2Fashion’s market insight tool TexPro. Despite COVID-related disruptions, Brazil exported 658.752 million kg of cotton to China in 2020, valued at $1,016.738 million. However, the volume and value of exports slightly fell to 582.985 million kg ($983.141 million) in 2021, and further eased to 521.499 million kg ($1,082.756 million) in 2022, as per TexPro. Despite the decline in shipments over the last two years, the exports still increased more than three times in terms of volume and value. The data suggests that the surge in exports from Brazil to China was not solely due to Chinese importers seeking alternative sources of cotton after the US ban on cotton originating from the Xinjiang region of China. The US banned cotton from the region in June 2022. Source: Fibre2fashion
  • 8. 8 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Clothing companies look to reduce China manufacturing exposure A combination of supply chain chaos, higher costs and concerns about working conditions is forcing some western fashion brands to rethink their decades-old dependence on factories in China. Dieter Holzer, the former chief executive and a board member of Marc O’Polo, said the Swedish- German fashion brand started to swap some suppliers in the country in favour of factories in Turkey and Portugal in 2021. The decision was meant to “balance and take out risk from your supply chain and make it more sustainable”, he said. “I think many companies across the industry are reviewing their exposure [to China].” The shift away from mass textile production in the country, albeit still in its early stages, marks the reversal of years of outsourcing to a region that has come to dominate the textile supply chain. Big names such as Mango and Dr Martens have recently cut or signaled their intention to shift manufacturing out of China or south-east Asia. “The big message is reducing reliance on China,” Dr Martens’ chief executive Kenny Wilson said in November. “You don’t want all of your eggs in one basket.” The bootmaker has moved 55 per cent of its total production out of the country since he took over in 2018. Just 12 per cent of its production for the 2022 autumn/winter collection was manufactured in China compared with 27 per cent in 2020 and it estimated this will drop to 5 per cent this year. “We are being deafened by the sound of clothes manufacturers [moving] away from Asia,” said Rosey Hurst, director of ethical business consultancy Impactt. The relocation was also being driven by stricter laws being introduced in the US and Europe against labour abuses, she added, following the alleged use of forced labour in the cotton-rich territory of Xinjiang in China. Mango’s chief executive Toni Ruiz said in December he was considering buying less from China “but we’ll be very alert to SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION AND NEW LABOR LAW Brands have begun to shift away from mass textile production in the country as they seek to reduce supply chain risks A home textile enterprise in Binzhou, China © CFOTO/Future Publishing/ Getty Images
  • 9. 9 Newsletter February 2023 www.vcosa.org.vn how things evolve”. “What we’re looking at is the extent to which all this global sourcing, developed over many years, might become more local,” he said. The shift was accelerated by continued supply chain disruption since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a jump in freight costs, as well as significant shipping delays as factory workers at manufacturing hubs across Asia fell ill or were forced to isolate. One industry consultant said that one retail client’s ski wear, from a previous season, arrived in the summer of 2022. “For many, gone are the days of manufacturing only in China and shipping everywhere,” said Todd Simms, vice-president at supply chain intelligence platform FourKites. “Disruptions have increased costs to deliver finished goods, making it easier to justify operations in new countries in exchange for more resilience,” he added. The financial incentives to remain in the region are diminishing as wages go up after years of cheap labour — a major draw for many household names to outsource manufacturing to far-flung places. According to statistics from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the average factory wage doubled between 2013 and 2021, from Rmb46,000 ($6,689) per year to Rmb92,000. Jose Calamonte, chief executive of online fashion retailer Asos, told investors at the company’s full-year results presentation last year that products manufactured in China were not as competitive as they seemed relative to Europe, once shipping and transport costs were taken into account. “We try to think about the final [profit] margin once we’ve made the final sale,” he said. European clothing retailers’ efforts to cut delivery times, as fashion trends and consumer needs change quickly, is another reason behind their decision to opt for suppliers closer to home. “We’ve been taking control of our manufacturing,” said a spokesman for a British luxury brand, adding that the industry has been consolidating in Europe for years now. “This has been a trend for reasons to do with speed and efficiency.” Plans to shift production away fromAsiangarmenthubs,however, are not that advanced owing to their complexity. Countries such as China and Vietnam represent the lion’s share of textile exports, according to 2020 data from CEPII. For example, more than half of suppliers to Inditex, the world’s largest fashion retailer, were based in Asia in 2021, only a marginal reduction on 2018. Turkey has been positioning itself as a winner from western brands moving their production, not least because it is part of the EU customs union, allowing frictionless trade between member states. “It is a popular destination COMPETITION WITH SHEIN
  • 10. 10 https://vietnamyarnprice.com and already used by the likes of Hugo Boss, Adidas, Nike, Zara”, said Simon Geale, executive vice-president of procurement at supply chain consultancy Proxima. An increasingly important consideration for retailers is traceability in the supply chain after years of widely reported labour abuses. “[Because of US laws against cotton from Xinjiang], brands have to have much better traceability, ” said Impactt’s Hurst. “Then we have got European laws [on forced labour] coming up. It is putting pressure on the industry to get a grip,” she said. But she warned: “There isn’t enough money in [international supply chains] to run things the way they should be done. [Given the current economic crisis], that is only going to get worse.” Maximilian Albrecht, an analyst at AlixPartners, said that many fast fashion labels were also abandoning China in order to differentiate themselves from Shein, the rapidly growing Chinese fast fashion giant. “European brands can’t match Shein on their costs of production, their network of production, their relationships,” Albrecht said. “I think you’ll see some brands say ‘well, we can’t match that so we’ll move to Europe’. You can still sell the story that they have higher quality products. Whether that’s actually true is another thing”. Source: Financial Times T he textile and garment industry expects export turnover to reach $50-52 billion in 2025 and $68-70 billion in 2030, according to the strategy document. The strategy states that developing the fashion industry is considered a new direction. Accordingly, this sector will focus on developing designers, and raw material supply, production and distribution systems to form supply chains and create sustainable foundations for the development of the domestic fashion industry as well as fashion centres in Hanoi and HCM City. The strategy encourages enterprises to gradually switch their production methods to free- on-board (FOB) and original design manufacturer to add value to products, and build a private brand to improve the competitiveness of the businesses and products. The textile and garment industry strives to have a localisation rate of 51-55 per cent in 2021-2025 and 56-60 per cent in 2026-2030. Domestic leather and footwear enterprises need to actively adapt to market requirements on sustainable product development standards, Nguyen Duc Thuan, chairman of the Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association (LEFASO), told a domestic media outlet. The strategy also mentions the role of state management agencies in encouraging enterprises to invest in producing fibre, yarn, textile and dyeing with advanced technology and connections with domestic garment enterprises. Source: Fibre2Fashion Vietnam wants textile, garment, footwear exports to hit $80 bn by 2025 The textile, garment and footwear sectors in Vietnam aim to achieve exports worth $77-80 billion in 2025 and $106-108 billion in 2030, according to the government strategy for the development of the textile- footwear industry. They will encourage production of fabrics from domestic yarn to reduce imports, and form a complete regional supply and value chain. Newsletter February 2023
  • 11. Newsletter February 2023 Wakefield Inspection Services Ltd được thành lập tại Liverpool, Vương Quốc Anh từ năm 1993. Cho đến nay, có hơn 20 công ty con đã được thành lập toàn cầu và việc mở rộng mạng lưới vẫn đang được tiếp diễn. Hiện tại WIS đang hoạt động tại hơn 60 quốc gia và trở thành công ty dẫn đầu về ngành giám định bông thô trên toàn thế giới. Qua hơn 20 năm cung cấp dịch vụ giám định tại thị trường Việt Nam, chúng tôi sung sướng thông báo rằng WIS có thể cung cấp dịch vụ kiểm nghiệm bông thô tại phòng thí nghiệm HVI vừa được thành lập tại TP. Hồ Chì Minh. Tại sao chọn WIS?  Wakefield Inspection Services là công ty giám định dẫn đầu và được quốc tế công nhận.  Có truyền thông lưu giữ nhân viên, giúp việc liên lạc với khách hàng của mình luôn thông suốt.  Có đội ngũ nhân viên dày dạn kinh nghiệm.  Duy trì việc đào tạo không ngừng.  Cung cấp dịch vụ đúng nhu cầu của khách hàng, theo từng yêu cầu cụ thể.  Có mạng lưới toàn cầu thông qua đội ngũ nhân viên địa phương.  Có mạng lưới hỗ trợ toàn cầu. Để biết thêm thông tin về các dịch vụ WIS hiện đang cung cấp, vui lòng liên lạc với chúng tôi qua email: Info@wiscontrol.com / vit-ops@wiscontrol.com Wakefield Inspection Services Ltd was established in Liverpool, England in 1993. Since WIS’ formation - over twenty Group Companies have been established worldwide and this expansion continues today, WIS currently operates in over 60 countries becoming the leading company in the inspection of raw cotton fibre. Now having worked in Vietnam for the last 20 years WIS is pleased that they can offer the HVI testing of cotton in our testing laboratory in Ho Chi Minh Why Wakefield?  Wakefield Inspection is an internationally recognised, and industry leading inspection company  Staff retention, enabling a continuity of communication with our clients  Providing staff with significant hands on experience  Ongoing Training  Customised services, tailored to your needs  Global coverage via local, on the ground, staff  A Group wide support network For more information on what WIS can do for you, please contact: Info@wiscontrol.com / vit-ops@wiscontrol.com
  • 12. American Eagle Outfitters Joins U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol The U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol (“Trust Protocol”) has announce the membership of American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (“AEO”). AEO is a leading global specialty retailer offering high-quality, on-trend clothing, accessories and personal care products through its American Eagle, Aerie, OFFL/NE by Aerie, Todd Snyder and Unsubscribed brands. Trust Protocol membership will support AEO in its continued efforts to provide greater transparency, communication and standardized reporting of its ESG progress. Underpinned by a focus on optimism, AEO’s Building a Better World ESG strategy is centered on three key areas: planet (environment), people (social) and practices (governance). Notably, the company has set specific goals to achieve carbon neutrality in its owned and operated locations and significantly reduce water use, among other sustainability initiatives. The Trust Protocol is the only sustainable cotton system that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement and drives continuous improvement in six key sustainability metrics – land use, soil carbon, water management, soil loss, greenhouse gas emissions, and energy efficiency. The Trust Protocol integrates these sustainability metrics from Field to Market’s Fieldprint® Platform, enabling enrolled growers to measure the environmental impacts of their operation and identify opportunities for continuous improvement. To join The Trust Protocol, visit TrustUSCotton.org. ABOUT THE U.S. COTTON TRUST PROTOCOL Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol was designed to set a new standard in more sustainably grown cotton, ensuring that it contributes to the protection and preservation of the planet, using the most sustainable and responsible techniques. It is the only farm-level, science- based program that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement in six key sustainability metrics as well as article-level supply chain transparency. The Trust Protocol is overseen by a multi-stakeholder Board of Directors comprised of representatives from brands and retailers, civil society and independent sustainability experts as well as the cotton-growing industry, including growers, ginners, merchants, wholesalers and cooperatives, mills and cottonseed handlers.
  • 13. Newsletter February 2023 JOIN NOW To learn more or become a member, TrustUSCotton.org Launched in 2020, the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol was designed to set a new standard in more sustainably grown cotton, ensuring that it contributes to the protection and preservation of the planet, using the most sustainable and responsible techniques. It is the only system that provides quantifiable, verifiable goals and measurement in six key sustainability metrics and article- level supply chain transparency. The Trust Protocol provides brands and retailers the critical assurances they need to show the cotton fiber element of their supply chain is more sustainably grown with lower environmental and social risk. SETTING A NEW STANDARD IN MORE SUSTAINABLE COTTON PRODUCTION Trust in a smarter cotton future.
  • 14. 14 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com EVENT WAS ORGANIZED IN FEB 2023 On February 15th-17th 2023, VCOSA in collaborationwiththeInternationalCottonAssociation (ICA), under the sponsorship of the Cotton Council International (CCI), successfully organized a training course - Trade Matters 2023 in HCMC. VCOSA congratulates those who have completed the course and successfully passed the exam to receive the ICA certificate. We will keep working with partners to bring useful programs, contributing to the development of Vietnam’s cotton, fiber and yarn industry.. Some pictures at the workshop training: Attendees actively discuss topics and situations that ICA experts raised at the session. VCOSA’S
  • 15. 15 Newsletter February 2023 www.vcosa.org.vn S EVENT All attendees successfully passed the exam, received ICA certificates and took photos with the Organizing Committee. VCOSA’s representative presented gifts and honored CCI sponsors, as well as thanked and expressed gratitude to ICA for accompanying the Organizing Committee. Concentrate on taking the exam for 60 minutes.
  • 18. 18 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com REPORT AND DATABASE In January 2023, Vietnam imported 69.9 thousand tons of cotton, worth $175.1 million, down 30.5% in volume and down 32.4% in value compared to the previous month, down 45.5% in volume and down 44.9% in value compared to January 2022. Fiber & yarn imported into Vietnam was 60.6 thousand tons, worth 136 million USD, down 25.7% in volume and down 17.3% in value over the previous month; down 35.1% in volume and down 41.8% in value compared to January 2022. According to preliminary data in January 2023, Vietnam imported 69.9 thousand tons of cotton, down 30.5% from the previous month. Imported of textile fibers and yarns was 60.6 thousand tons, down 25.7% over the previous month. According to the latest import and export data from the General Department of Customs, in January 2023,Vietnamimportedcottonworth 175.1 million USD, down 32.4% over the previous month; fiber and yarn imports valued at 136 million USD, down 17.3%; fabric imports valued at 936 million USD, down 9.1%; import of raw materials for textile, garment, leather and footwear decreased by 16% compared to the previous month, valued at 377.4 million USD. 1. Monthly Import Statistics
  • 19. 19 www.vcosa.org.vn Newsletter February 2023 In the first month of 2023, Vietnam imported cotton worth 175.1million USD, down 44.9% over the same period last year; import of fiber and yarn valued at 136 million USD, down 41.8%; import of fabric valued at 936 million USD, down 33.4%; import of raw materials for textile, garment, leather and footwear decreased by 33.9% over the same period last year, worth 377.4 million USD. According to preliminary data in January 2023, imported of fiber and yarn was about 60.6 thousand tons, down 25.7% compared to the previous month, down 35.1% over the same period last year. According to preliminary data in January 2023, Vietnam imported 69.9 thousand tons of cotton, down 30.5% from the previous month, down 45.5% over the same period last year.
  • 20. 20 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com R aw cotton is one of the main groups of imported textile materials and accessories of Vietnam, after fabrics and other textile and garment materials and accessories, accounting for 14.4% of the total import value. In 2022, according to statistics from the General Department of Customs, imports of this group of goods into Vietnam reached 1.43 million tons, worth 4.03 billion USD, down 14.6% in volume but up 24.5% in value compared to 2021. In December 2022 alone, Vietnam’s raw cotton imports reached 100.53 thousand tons, worth 259.24 million USD, down 24.5% in volume and 31.6% in value compared to November 2022, down 9.1% in volume but up 5.4% in value compared to December 2021. In 2022, there are 10 markets supplying raw cotton to Vietnam, down 1 market compared to 2021. Vietnam’s raw cotton imports from some main markets decreased compared to 2021 such as the US and India, Brazil... Specifically: Cotton imports from the US market are the largest in 2022, reaching 447 thousand tons, worth 1.31 billion USD, down 26.1% in volume but up 11.9% in value compared to 2021, accounting for 31.2% of total cotton imports. Particularly in December 2022, cotton imports from this market reached 6.32 thousand tons, worth 15.76 million USD, down 37.1% in volume and 39.8% in value compared to 2021. In 2022, cotton imports from the Australian market increased by 53.3% in volume and 110.6% in value compared to 2021, reaching 422 thousand tons, worth 1.27 billion USD. Particularly in December 2022, cotton imports from this market reached 41.68 thousand tons, worth 116.48 million USD, down 48.7% in volume and 8.1% in value compared to November 2022, an increase of 15.5% in volume and 32.9% in value compared to December 2021. In addition, cotton imports from some other markets decreased sharply in volume in 2022 compared to 2021 such as: imports from the Indian market decreased by 45%; from Ivory Coast down 45.9%; from Indonesia decreased by 57.1%. 1.1. In 2023, the import price of cotton will continue to decrease Source: VITIC Source: VITIC Vietnam’s cotton import Vietnam’s import cottons in 2021-2022 (thousand tons)
  • 21. 21 www.vcosa.org.vn Newsletter February 2023 The average import price of cotton in 2021-2022 (USD/ton) US cotton price in 2022 (USD/pound) About price: The price of cotton imported into Vietnam in December 2022 was at $2,579/ton, down 9.5% compared to November 2022 but up 16% compared to December 2021. Thus, December 2022 is the fourth consecutive month that the price of imported cotton materials into Vietnam has decreased since reaching a peak in August 2022. In general, in 2022, the price of cotton materials imported to Vietnam averaged $2,807/ton, up 45.8% compared to 2021. World cotton prices fell due to weak demand. In the Chinese market, according to the market of energy commodities and industrial raw materials from https:// dautuhanghoa.vn/, the cotton import data of China - the world’s largest cotton consuming country has remained quite dim in recent weeks, although the Government of this country has gradually eased measures to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic, putting pressure on prices. Facing the downward trend of world cotton prices, it is forecasted that the price of imported cotton materials into Vietnam will also decrease in the first months of 2023 but the decrease is not much. The average price of imported cotton from major markets in December 2022 decreased compared to November 2022. In which, the price of cotton imported from the US market decreased by 4.2% to 2,493 USD/ton, the price of cotton imported from the Australian market decreased by 8.5% to 2,794 USD/ ton, the price of cotton imported from the Brazilian market decreased. 3.9% down to 2,526 USD/ton. It can be seen that the price of Vietnam’s imported cotton tends to decrease according to the world cotton price. In the US, according to data from https://www.macrotrends.net/, US cotton prices have also corrected down in recent months, from $0.86/lb at the end of November 2022, fell to $0.83/ lb at the end of 2022 and continued to decline in the first half of January 2023, with cotton prices as of January 13, 2023 at $0.82/lb. Source: VITIC Source: macrotrends.net
  • 22. 22 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Import price of cotton Vietnam’s import fiber in 2021-2022 (thousand tons) Source: VITIC According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, the volume of imported fiber materials of Vietnam in December 2022 reached 33.56 thousand tons, worth 42.09 million USD, up 15% in volume and 5.9 % in value compared to November 2022; down 26.5% in volume and 29.9% in value compared to December 2021. In general, in 2022, the volume of imported fiber materials to Vietnam reached 363 thousand tons, worth 507 million USD, down 9.1% in volume and 1.1% in value compared to 2021. The world fiber market is slowing down, the world fiber price continues to fall. In the domestic market, the lack of export textile and garment orders has resulted in high inventories of finished cotton fibers in most textile factories, reducing the operating speed of textile enterprises. With the above factors, it is forecast that the volume and price of imported fiber into Vietnam will continue to decrease in the first months of 2023. In 2022, Vietnam imported raw fiber from 30 markets, an increase of 1 market compared to 2021. In which, China is the largest supplier of raw fiber to Vietnam, with an import volume of 158,01 thousand tons, worth 204.15 million USD, accounting for 47.8% of the total import volume, down 10.4% in volume and 2.7% in value compared to 2021. Particularly in December 2022, imports export of raw fiber from China to Vietnam reached 15.9 thousand tons, worth 18.97 million USD, up 26.5% in volume and 22.2% in value; down 31.4% in volume and 33.1% in value compared to December 2021. Import of raw fiber from Taiwan market in 2022 reached 51.85 thousand tons, worth 68.27 million USD, accounting for 15.7% of total import of raw fiber of 1.2. Thevolumeofimportedrawfibercontinuestodecreaseinthefirstmonthsof2023
  • 23. 23 www.vcosa.org.vn Newsletter February 2023 Vietnam’s fiber import Import price of fiber 2021-2022 (USD/ton) Source: VITIC Source: VITIC Vietnam, down 10.4% in volume but increased 5.3% in value compared to 2021. In December 2022 alone, imports of raw fiber from Taiwan market reached 4.57 thousand tons, worth 5.05 million USD, up 24.9 % in volume and 13.1% in value compared to November 2022; down 17.6% and down 25.2% in value compared to December 2021. In general, in 2022, imports of raw fibers from major markets into Vietnam decreased, except for imports from Thailand, which increased by 17.1% in volume. Notably, the import volume of fibers from some markets increased strongly in 2022 such as imports from Germany increased by 474.5% in volume, from Greece increased by 5,213%. About price: In December 2022, the price of imported fiber materials to Vietnam averaged $1,254/ ton, down 7.9% compared to November 2022 and down 4.6% compared to December 2021. In which, the lowest price of raw materials imported from Taiwan reached 1,105 USD/ton; next is from Thailand at 1,140 USD/ton… and the highest import price from Singapore is 3,500 USD/ton. In general, in 2022, the average import price of fiber materials into Vietnam will reach 1,396 USD/ ton, an increase of 8.8% compared to 2021.
  • 24. 24 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Import price of fiber Vietnam’s import yarn in 2021-2022 (thousand tons) Source: VITIC Source: VITIC A ccording to statistics from the General Department of Customs, import of raw yarn in December 2022 reached 44.76 thousand tons, worth USD 123.55 million, down 14.5% in volume and 10.1% in value compared to November 2022, down 29.2% in volume and 36.2% in value compared to December 2021. In general, in 2022, the import volume of raw yarn reached 681 thousand tons, worth 2.03 billion USD, down 5.5% in volume but up 0.2% in value compared to 2021. China is the largest source of yarn for Vietnam in 2022, with imports reaching 448 thousand tons, worth $1.21 billion, accounting for 65.9% of total imports, up 1.5 % in volume and 6% in value compared to 2021. In December 2022 alone, the amount of raw yarn imported from this market reached 32.01 thousand tons, worth 77.28 million USD, down 17, 4% in volume and 13.7% in value compared to November 2022; down 20.8% in volume and 32% in value compared to December 2021. Import of raw yarn from Taiwan market in 2022 reached 91.45 thousand tons, worth USD 258.19 million, accounting for 13.4% of Vietnam’s total import of raw yarn, down 7.3% in volume but increased by 0.9% in value compared to 2021. 1.3. Import price of yarn increased slightly
  • 25. 25 www.vcosa.org.vn Newsletter February 2023 Vietnam’s yarn import Import price of yarn 2021-2022 (USD/ton) Source: VITIC Source: VITIC In December 2022, imports of raw yarn from Taiwan market reached 5.38 thousand tons, worth 14.92 million USD, down 13% in volume. and 14.4% decrease in value compared to November 2022; down 31.3% in volume and 35.4% in value compared to December 2021. In general, in 2022, imports of raw materials from the main supplying markets all decreased compared to 2021, except for imports from the Chinese market, which increased slightly by 1.5% in volume. In terms of price: Import price of raw yarn increased again after 2 consecutive months of decline, reaching USD 2,760/ton in December 2022, up 5.2% compared to November 2022 but down 9.9% compared to December. 2021. In general, in 2022, the price of imported raw materials to Vietnam will average 2,989 USD/ton, up 6% compared to 2021. In which, the price of raw yarn imported from China was the lowest, reaching 2,414 USD/ton; followed by Taiwan market at US$2,771/ton… and the highest import price from Hong Kong market was US$7,998/ton.
  • 26. 26 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com The prospect of a recovery in world garment demand is a factor driving up yarn prices. With data showing inflation cooling in Europe and the US, markets expect the global economy to avoid a severe recession, potentially boosting apparel purchases. In particular, the world’s largest clothing market, China, abolished the strict Zero Covid policy, further increasing these expectations. In 2023, it is forecast that the world economy will still face many difficulties, the total world textile and garment demand is about 700 billion USD, down 8% compared to 2022. However, with the forecast that the total world textile and garment demand will recover in the second half of 2023, this will lead to increased import demand for textile materials in general and yarn imports in particular. The price of imported raw yarn into Vietnam has increased in December 2022, however, the market demand is still weak, along with that, the world import price of raw yarn has not yet adjusted sharply. Import price of raw yarn into Vietnam will only increase slightly in the coming time. Import price of yarn Source: VITIC — All data are accurate, relevant and verified from sources: the Ministry of Industry and Trade, General Department of Vietnam Customs, General Statistics Office of Vietnam, International Trade Center, Cotton Incorporated and other reliable sources. — This text provides general information. VCOSA assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct. Due to varying update cycles, statistics can display more up-to-date data than referenced in the text. Communication and Information Department
  • 27. 27 www.vcosa.org.vn Newsletter February 2023 In January 2023, Vietnam exported 88.1 thousand tons of fiber and yarn, worth US$225.5 million, down 33.8% in volume and down 30.7% in value over the previous month; down 38.9% in volume and down 52.4% in value compared to January 2022. 2. Monthly Export Statistics Fiber and yarn exports in 1/2023 reached US$225.5 million, down 30.7% over the previous month; fabric exports reached 152.7 million USD, down 30%; export of raw materials for textile, garment, leather and footwear reached 121.2 million USD, down 29.7%; technical fabric exports decreased 7.7% month on month, worth $57.8 million. Vietnam’s fiber and yarn exports in January 2023 reached 88.1 thousand tons, worth 225.5 million USD, down 33.8% in volume and down 30.7% in value compared to the previous month.
  • 28. 28 Newsletter February 2023 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Textile and garment exports in January 2023 reached 2.25 billion USD, down 22.4% from the previous month. According to preliminary data in January 2023, textile and garment exports reached 2.25 billion USD, down 37.6% over the same period last year. In the first month of 2023, Vietnam’s fiber and yarn exports were valued at 225.5 million USD, down 52.4% over the same period last year; fabric exports reached 152.7 million USD, down 39.2%; export of textile, garment and footwear raw materials reached 121.2 million USD, down 39.4%; technical fabric exports decreased by 22.5%, valued at 57.8 million USD.
  • 29. 29 www.vcosa.org.vn Newsletter February 2023 T extile fibers are one of the items that account for a large proportion of Vietnam’s export textile and garment groups and raw materials, accounting for 13.6% of total export turnover in 2022. Notably, this product’s export of Vietnam, after growing significantly in the first months of 2022, has decreased again in the last months of the year. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, for the whole year of 2022, Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers and yarns reached 1,573 thousand tons, with a turnover of 4.713 billion USD, down 18.4% in volume and 16% in value compared to 2021. In December 2022 alone, Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers and yarns reached 133 thousand tons, worth 325.3 million USD, up 11.4% in volume and 6.8% in turnover compared to November 2022; down 16.2% in volume and 38.8% in value compared to December 2021. 2.1. Exportoftextilefibersandyarnscouldnotrecoverinthefirstquarterof2023 Source: VITIC Source: VITIC In terms of prices: The unit price of Vietnam’s fiber and textile exports has decreased continuously in recent months and reached an average of $2,445/ ton in December 2022, down 4.14% compared to November 2022 and down 27% compared to December 2021. December 2022 is the eighth consecutive month for the export unit price of textile fibers and yarns to decrease. Although the global price of cotton and fiber materialshasdecreasedsignificantlyinrecentmonths, besides, transportation costs have also decreased, but due to the weak global demand for textiles, the demand for raw materials has been reduced, this is the main reason why the average export unit price of Vietnam’s fiber and textile yarn groups has decreased continuously in recent months. In general, in 2022, the average export unit price of Vietnam’s textile fibers and yarns reached 2,995.2 USD/ton, up 2.9% compared to 2021. Vietnam’s export fiber and yarn in 2021-2022 (million USD) Export price of fiber and yarn 2021-2022 (USD/ton)
  • 30. 30 https://vietnamyarnprice.com Export price of fiber and yarn Source: VITIC Export market: In 2022, Vietnam exports textile fibers and yarns of all kinds mainly to the Chinese market, accounting for 45.16% of the total volume and 46.27% of the total export turnover. However, the export of this item to the Chinese market has decreased significantly compared to 2021, with a decrease of 30.8% in volume and 26.9% in turnover, respectively. It can be seen that the Zero Covid policy that China implemented has significantly affected the activities of the economy of this country, along with that, the tightening of goods import activities through border gates with Vietnam has also affected causing disruption to Vietnam’s export of goods to China, including fibers and textiles. Besides China, Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers and fibers to some other markets will also decrease in 2022 such as Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, Cambodia... On the other hand, Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers and fibers to a number of markets increased in 2022 compared to 2021 such as India and Thailand, especially exports to the Philippines market increased by 276.1% in volume and increased by 362% in turnover. It can be seen that, although Vietnam’s exports of textile fibers and yarns to the Chinese market decreased significantly in 2022, however, with the reopening of the economy from January 8, 2023 of China has can help Vietnam’s fiber and yarn exports to this market increase again because this is the export market that accounts for the highest proportion of the total export turnover of this item for many years. Assessing the export situation of Vietnam’s textile fibers and yarns in the coming time, it is found that, although there are positive signals from the main export market, China, the global demand for textiles and garments is still strong. According to many forecasts, it will remain bleak until the middle of 2023, therefore, Vietnam’s exports of fiber and textile fibers will still be difficult to recover at least until the end of the first quarter of 2023. Newsletter February 2023
  • 31. Newsletter February 2023 Vietnam’s fiber and yarn export Source: VITIC Newsletter February 2023
  • 32. 32 https://vietnamyarnprice.com The latest USDA report featured decreases to forecasts for global production (-332,000 bales to 115.4 million) and mill-use (-846,000 bales to 110.9 million) in the 2022/23 crop year. Revisions to historical figures lowered beginning stocks (-148,000 bales to 85.3 million). The net result for the forecast to world ending stocks was a +372,000 bale addition (to 89.9 million). If realized, this would be the highest volume of global stocks outside of the crop year most affected by the onset of COVID (2019/20) and the period of high Chinese reserves (2012/13- 2015/16). The current projection for the world stocks-to-use ratio is 80.5%, about eight percentage points higher than last crop year and about ten points higher than in 2020/21. At the country-level, the largest revisions to production figures were for India (-1.0 million bales to 26.5 million), Brazil (+300,000 bales to 13.3 million), and the U.S. (+438,0000 bales to 14.7 million). For mill-use, the largest changes were for India (-500,000 bales to 22.5 million), Indonesia (-250,000 bales to 2.2 million), and Vietnam (- 100,000 bales to 6.4 million). The global trade forecast was lowered -645,000 bales to 41.6 million. For imports, the largest changes were for China (-250,000 to 7.8 million), Indonesia (-250,000 bales to 2.2 million), and Vietnam (-200,000 bales to 6.4 million). For exports, the largest changes were for India (-250,000 bales to 3.1 million) and the U.S. (-250,000 bales to 12.0 million). Chinese cotton prices have been edging higher since early January. This has created some separation between prices in what traditionally is the world’s largest import market and average export prices (the A Index). The current gap is about eight cents/ lb. That separation will need to widen to make imports more attractive (CC Index is commonly 15-20 cents/lb higher than the A Index), but it has marked progress that may eventually lead to more international trade. If the demand side of the fiber market strengthens in coming months, supply-related issues could become more important for price direction. Current prices remain high by historical standards (A Index is trading near 100 cents/ lb), but input costs are also high. Improved weather in West Texas and Pakistan could be mitigating factors for production, but in the U.S., Brazil, and other locations sensitive to relative crop prices, input costs and competitive prices for corn and soybeans can be expected to cause lower planted acreage for 2023/24. Source: CI 3. Cotton Outlook Newsletter February 2023
  • 34. Head Office 15/Fl., Block B, Viettel Complex Tower, 285 Cach Mang Thang Tam str., ward 12, dist. 10, Ho Chi Minh city Representative Office Room 403, 4/Fl., Ocean Park Tower, 01 Dao Duy Anh str., Phuong Mai ward, Dong Da dist., Ha Noi city Office (mailing address) 1265 Hoang Sa str., Ward 5, Tan Binh Dist., Ho Chi Minh city œ +84 902 379 490 œ info@vcosa.org.vn œ www.vcosa.org.vn