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Survey of experience of using COSMIC in 
Agile projects 
- interim findings 
Presented at UK COSMIC Special Interest Group 
10th April 2014 
Charles Symons
The Guideline on using COSMIC in Agile projects 
makes several claims 
Story Points are a subjective size measure 
COSMIC sizes are an objective measure that: 
• can be measured at any level of an Agile 
project 
• may be aggregated from User Stories 
upwards to any level 
• hence can be used to estimate at any level 
• hence can be used to track progress in line 
with Agile processes, e.g. of the backlog, of 
earned value, etc. 
Project 
Release Component 
Sprint/ 
Iteration 
User Story 
(Sub-) Task 
(N. B. The 
number of 
levels in the 
hierarchy, and 
terminology 
vary) 
10/04/2014 2
Feedback from a brief survey of how COSMIC is 
used in Agile projects in practice 
• Canada 
• UQAM Masters student study of four projects 
• UQAM Masters student studying 15 projects: aim to build an estimation model (WIP) 
• India, Italy 
• General industry experience 
• Netherlands 
• Fairly extensive experience in Sogeti Nederland 
• Russia 
• SRG (small software house) experience 
10/04/2014 3
Use COSMIC to measure at the Sprint level? 
Difficult: 
• ‘Wrong decomposition of requirements’ (Canada) 
• Some User Stories may have part of a FP, others map to 4 x FP’s (Canada) 
• Some US may comprise a new FUR plus a CR and be implemented over 
multiple sprints. Overall, # US > # FP’s (Canada) 
• Hard to use for small sprints. We measure only large ‘tasks’ (= several 
sprints) and the whole application. We don’t measure every sprint. Small 
tasks are measured with ‘proxies’, e.g. ‘add simple web form = n CFP’ 
(Russia) 
• We measure at sprint level for progress control (Netherlands) 
10/04/2014 4
How are Agile projects estimated? At what level? 
• The strength of using USP is in the team discussions and use of ‘Poker 
Planning’ – it’s not the same as traditional expert judgement 
• Good correlation of CFP and effort expected at the Project level 
• Now researching correlation of USP and CFP (Canada) 
• We are mostly required to estimate whole projects before the 
requirements are known in detail. We estimate using NESMA 
approximate sizing. Most projects use Agile processes (Netherlands) 
• We have a satisfactory correlation of size with effort for the whole 
application and for large tasks (Russia) 
10/04/2014 5
COSMIC can help with QC of requirements 
Study 1 (and a 2011 study) 
• Objective measurement of the quality of User Stories showed improvement with 
each iteration, as a result of CFP measurement 
Total projets Itération 1 Itération 2 Itération 3 
% a 0 7 63 
% b 0 72 37 
% c 18 21 0 
% d 82 0 0 
% e 0 0 0 
Study 2 (UQAM) 
• No data models, poor naming consistency, etc leads to poor US that can’t easily 
be measured 
• having US that are measurable objectively, using methods such as COSMIC, could 
increase the accuracy of future estimations 
10/04/2014 6
COSMIC measurements are used to control progress 
UQAM Study 1 
Sogeti experience: ‘We also use QSM Control to control the project progress 
and for this COSMIC is much more powerful than NESMA (≡IFPUG FPA), as it 
gives a more accurate picture of the actual functionality being ready at a 
certain point in time, resulting in more accurate forecasts.’ 
10/04/2014 7
Some general industry observations 
• Companies are starting to use Agile, but there is not yet much 
published information (Italy) 
• Lack of standardization of ‘story points’ is a concern when carrying 
out performance measurement across projects. COSMIC is being 
studied/piloted. (India) 
• Use of traditional estimation methods at bid/proposal stage, and use 
of User Story or Work Breakdown Structure at the iteration stage, 
seem most common (Indian BSPIN report, 2012) 
• UK Government Digital Services experience is very positive for small 
web projects, but no real performance measurements (?) 
10/04/2014 8
Use of COSMIC with Agile projects: Conclusions 
• The claims for the applicability of COSMIC are theoretically true 
• In practice, given current Agile process maturity, it is difficult to use COSMIC at 
the US level for sizing and estimating, due to: 
• the variable quality of requirements 
• some US or tasks include re-factoring of earlier US 
• difficulties of dealing with NFR, etc 
• Agile Project teams would benefit from being trained in COSMIC sizing. The 
‘Planning Poker’ process is also important 
• COSMIC can be used with advantage for Agile projects for: 
• whole project sizing & estimating 
• QC of requirements 
• progress control 
10/04/2014 9

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Using cosmic in agile projects

  • 1. Survey of experience of using COSMIC in Agile projects - interim findings Presented at UK COSMIC Special Interest Group 10th April 2014 Charles Symons
  • 2. The Guideline on using COSMIC in Agile projects makes several claims Story Points are a subjective size measure COSMIC sizes are an objective measure that: • can be measured at any level of an Agile project • may be aggregated from User Stories upwards to any level • hence can be used to estimate at any level • hence can be used to track progress in line with Agile processes, e.g. of the backlog, of earned value, etc. Project Release Component Sprint/ Iteration User Story (Sub-) Task (N. B. The number of levels in the hierarchy, and terminology vary) 10/04/2014 2
  • 3. Feedback from a brief survey of how COSMIC is used in Agile projects in practice • Canada • UQAM Masters student study of four projects • UQAM Masters student studying 15 projects: aim to build an estimation model (WIP) • India, Italy • General industry experience • Netherlands • Fairly extensive experience in Sogeti Nederland • Russia • SRG (small software house) experience 10/04/2014 3
  • 4. Use COSMIC to measure at the Sprint level? Difficult: • ‘Wrong decomposition of requirements’ (Canada) • Some User Stories may have part of a FP, others map to 4 x FP’s (Canada) • Some US may comprise a new FUR plus a CR and be implemented over multiple sprints. Overall, # US > # FP’s (Canada) • Hard to use for small sprints. We measure only large ‘tasks’ (= several sprints) and the whole application. We don’t measure every sprint. Small tasks are measured with ‘proxies’, e.g. ‘add simple web form = n CFP’ (Russia) • We measure at sprint level for progress control (Netherlands) 10/04/2014 4
  • 5. How are Agile projects estimated? At what level? • The strength of using USP is in the team discussions and use of ‘Poker Planning’ – it’s not the same as traditional expert judgement • Good correlation of CFP and effort expected at the Project level • Now researching correlation of USP and CFP (Canada) • We are mostly required to estimate whole projects before the requirements are known in detail. We estimate using NESMA approximate sizing. Most projects use Agile processes (Netherlands) • We have a satisfactory correlation of size with effort for the whole application and for large tasks (Russia) 10/04/2014 5
  • 6. COSMIC can help with QC of requirements Study 1 (and a 2011 study) • Objective measurement of the quality of User Stories showed improvement with each iteration, as a result of CFP measurement Total projets Itération 1 Itération 2 Itération 3 % a 0 7 63 % b 0 72 37 % c 18 21 0 % d 82 0 0 % e 0 0 0 Study 2 (UQAM) • No data models, poor naming consistency, etc leads to poor US that can’t easily be measured • having US that are measurable objectively, using methods such as COSMIC, could increase the accuracy of future estimations 10/04/2014 6
  • 7. COSMIC measurements are used to control progress UQAM Study 1 Sogeti experience: ‘We also use QSM Control to control the project progress and for this COSMIC is much more powerful than NESMA (≡IFPUG FPA), as it gives a more accurate picture of the actual functionality being ready at a certain point in time, resulting in more accurate forecasts.’ 10/04/2014 7
  • 8. Some general industry observations • Companies are starting to use Agile, but there is not yet much published information (Italy) • Lack of standardization of ‘story points’ is a concern when carrying out performance measurement across projects. COSMIC is being studied/piloted. (India) • Use of traditional estimation methods at bid/proposal stage, and use of User Story or Work Breakdown Structure at the iteration stage, seem most common (Indian BSPIN report, 2012) • UK Government Digital Services experience is very positive for small web projects, but no real performance measurements (?) 10/04/2014 8
  • 9. Use of COSMIC with Agile projects: Conclusions • The claims for the applicability of COSMIC are theoretically true • In practice, given current Agile process maturity, it is difficult to use COSMIC at the US level for sizing and estimating, due to: • the variable quality of requirements • some US or tasks include re-factoring of earlier US • difficulties of dealing with NFR, etc • Agile Project teams would benefit from being trained in COSMIC sizing. The ‘Planning Poker’ process is also important • COSMIC can be used with advantage for Agile projects for: • whole project sizing & estimating • QC of requirements • progress control 10/04/2014 9