USDA increased its forecasts for global soybean and cotton production in December. For soybeans, world production was forecast at 338 million tonnes, up 0.57% from November. India saw a large increase in soybean production forecast to 11.5 million tonnes, up 19% from last month. Global cotton production was forecast at 22.7 million tonnes, up 1% from last month. India's cotton production forecast remained unchanged at 5.88 million tonnes, up 2% from the previous year. World soybean and cotton ending stocks were also forecast to increase from November levels.

1. USDA Update – Soybean and Cotton
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
USDA December 2016 forecast further increases global
production for Soybean and Cotton
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2. USDA Update – Soybean and Cotton
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Soybean
World Production estimates rise again
Global soybean production is forecast higher this month by
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), primarily
on larger soybean crops in India and Canada. USDA
forecasts soybean production at 338 million tonnes (mt),
up by 0.57% in December compared to 336.1 mt in
November and 324.2 mt in May.
USDA raised world production for the new crop by 1.92 mt
in its December report due to increase production forecast
in India by 1.8 mt or 19% to 11.5 mt due to higher yield
estimates of 1.01 tons per hectare up 15 per cent from last
month and 2 per cent above the 5-year average
The production forecast is unchanged this month for other
top soybean produce countries like the US, Brazil,
Argentina, and China.
269
282
320
313
336 338
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Thousands
World Production of Soybean (Million Tonnes)
Source: USDA
119
102
57
13 12 9 6
21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US
Brazil
Argentina
China
India
Paraguay
Canada
Other
Thousands
Top Soybean producing Countries (mt)
Source: USDA
World ending stocks at record levels
World ending stocks for soybean increase by 1.62% or
1.32 mt to 82.85 mt in December for 2016/17 season
versus 81.51 mt estimated in November. This upward
revision is due to increase in stocks in India to 1.31 mt, up
by 187.5 per cent m/m and 211 per cent y/y.
It is the sixth consecutive yearly increase in world ending
stocks starting 2011/12. According to the latest USDA
report, Argentina and Brazil will be holding close to 70% of
soybean at the end of 2016/17 season. A bigger soybean
carryover stocks is seen for Argentina because of lower
exports in 2015/16 (down 670,000 tonnes to 9.25 mt) and
increase in production (up 200,000 tonnes to 57 mt).
In y/y basis, the US soybean ending stocks increase by 211
per cent or 7.7 mt to 13.1 mt, US will hold about 16%
stocks in 2016/17.
World trade to Increase slightly
World exports of soybeans, is expected to grow 5.53% in
2016/17 to 139.3 mt, up 0.07 per cent compared to last
month figures. This month the exports revised higher for
Canada to 4.4 mt from 4 mt in November estimates.
Brazil, United States and Argentina are the top soybean
exporting countries in 2016/17 but the soybean exports
are down 250,000 tons to 9.0 mt on slowing demand.
On the import front, China, European Union (EU) and
Mexico are the top three soybean importing countries in
the world. The soybean imports from EU raised by 6.15 %
this month due to brighter outlook for EU soybean crush.
55
62
79 77
82 83
50
60
70
80
90
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Thousands
World Ending Stocks (mt)
Source: USDA

3. USDA Update – Soybean and Cotton
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
This month, USDA has increase the soybean crush for
India due to abundant harvest this season. The soybean
crush figures increased by 11.84% to 8.5 mt in December
report compared to last month estimates of 7.6 mt.
Due to higher crushing, the soy meal production in
2016/17 will increased to 6.8 mt from 6.1 mt estimated
last month. Similarly the exports for 2016/17 season is
also forecasted to increase this month by 50% to 1.8mt
compared to last month’s forecast of 900,000 tons and
the 2015/16 total was 396,000 tons.
Higher crushing of soybean has affected on the soybean
oil imports forecast in the country. This month the
imports have been revised down to 3.8 mt from 4 mt last
month. Thus in 2016/17 the imports will be lower by
12.8% compared to last year imports. Last year, India
imported about 43.6 lt.
India Balance Sheet
100
82
67
56
76
85
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Hundreds
Domestic Soybean Crush (Lakh Tonnes)
Source: USDA
1000 2015/16
Oct Nov M/M Y/Y
Beginning Stock 7.77 4.21 4.21 0.00 -45.82
Production 71.25 97.00 115.00 18.56 61.40
Imports
Total Supplies 79.02 101.21 119.21 17.78 50.86
Crush 56.00 76.00 85.00 51.79 51.79
Exports
Total Demand 56.00 76.00 85.00 11.84 51.79
Ending Stocks 4.21 4.56 13.11 187.50 211.40
Source: USDA
India Soybean Balance Sheet (Lakh tonnes)
2016/17 %Chg
Favorable processing margins are seen raising EU soybean
imports in 2016/17 by 800,000 tons from last month’s
forecast to 13.8 mt. An EU supply deficit of vegetable oil,
due to this year’s decline in rapeseed production, is
encouraging more soybean imports.
Soybean import from China was unchanged this month at
86 mt in 2016/17. However, China will import 3.3% or 2.8
mt more than the previous year. Moreover, Mexico,
Taiwan, Indonesia and Iran also increase their soybean
imports this year due to good crushing demand.
World Balance Sheet
Domestic production
India soybean production for 2016/17 at 11.5 mt, up 19
per cent from last month’s estimate, up 61% from last
year production of 71 mt . The increase in production is
due to better than expected harvest as yield is estimated
at 1.01 tonnes /hectares which is higher by 15 per cent
from last month estimates and 2 per cent above 5-year
average.
1000 2015/16
Nov Dec M/M Y/Y
Beginning Stock 78.61 77.22 77.07 -0.20 -1.96
Production 313.31 336.09 338.00 0.57 7.88
Imports 132.99 136.21 136.96 0.55 2.99
Total Supplies 524.92 549.52 552.04 0.46 5.17
Domestic Use 276.41 288.17 289.44 4.72 4.72
Exports 132.14 139.16 139.25 5.38 5.38
Total Demand 408.55 427.33 428.69 0.32 4.93
Ending Stocks 77.22 77.36 81.53 5.39 5.57
Source: USDA
Soybean World Balance Sheet (million tonnes)
2016/17 %Chg
122
95
87
71
97
115
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Hundreds
Domestic Production of Soybean (Lakh Tonnes)
Source: USDA

4. USDA Update – Soybean and Cotton
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Cotton
World cotton production to rebound
In December monthly report, USDA increases the projections
for world cotton production by about 1% to 22.7 million
tonnes (104.24 million bales). Similarly, the ending stock also
forecasted higher. The global trade is also increased while
consumption figures were little down in the December report.
In the December report, the production for the US and
Australia was revised higher by 2.24% to 3.6 mt (16.5 million
bales) and 12.51% to 0.98 mt (4.5 million bales) respectively.
In 2016/17, cotton production in the top two producers—India
and China—is expected to move in opposite directions. The
production in India expected to increase 2.3% while output in
China is poised to decrease by 4.6%, they accounts for a
combined 46% of the global cotton crop this season.
26.98
26.21 25.95
21.00
22.49 22.70
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Thousands
World Cotton Production (mt)
Source: USDA
5.88
4.57
3.60
1.80
1.42
0.98 0.81
3.65
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
India
China
United
States
Pakistan
Brazil
Australia
Uzbekistan
Other
Thousands
Top Cotton Producing Countries (mt)
Source: USDA
Pakistan’s crop is projected at nearly 1.8 mt (8.3 million
bales) in 2016/17, about 18% higher from a 2015/16.
Cotton production in Brazil and Australia are also
expected to see increases in 2016/17. For Brazil, the
production is forecasted to increase by 10% due to higher
yield while the production in Australia is forecasted to
increase by 73%.
World Consumption forecast drops further
In the December report, USDA decreases the consumption
figure by 0.07% in 2016/17. This drop is due to
competition from the synthetics fiber and drop in mill use
in India and the US.
Reduced yarn imports by China are expected to result in
lower cotton mill use in two countries - India and
Pakistan. Cotton consumption for these countries is
forecast to decrease 2% and 1%, respectively, in 2016/17.
However, world consumption will increase by 0.58% to
24.4 mt on year due to higher mill use in China, Vietnam
and Bangladesh. China remains the leading consumer of
cotton, projected at 7.78 mt (35.75 million bales) in
2016/17, up by 2.15% compared to previous year and the
highest since 2012/13.
In Vietnam and Bangladesh, cotton mill use in 2016/17 is
forecast to increase 11% and 5%, respectively, and
account for a combined 10% of global consumption in
2016/17.
23.61
23.90
24.26 24.23
24.38 24.37
23.5
23.7
23.9
24.1
24.3
24.5
2016/172016/17
2012/132013/142014/152015/16 Nov Dec
Thousands
World Cotton Consumption (mt)
Source: USDASource: USDA

5. USDA Update – Soybean and Cotton
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
World Trade stable
In the latest USDA, global cotton trade is forecast similar
to the previous two seasons. World cotton trade is
projected at 7.7 mt (35.3 million bales) in 2016/17,
marginally above 2015/16 and equal to 2014/15.
However, global cotton trade remains well below
2012/13’s record of 10.4 mt (46.4 million bales).
In December report, the exports for the US and Australia
revised higher while exports revised down for Uzbekistan,
Burkina and Maliis.
In 2016/17, larger and higher quality crops in the United
States and Australia are expected to increase compared to
previous year. However, cotton shipments from India,
Brazil, and Uzbekistan are expected to decline due to
lower supplies available for export.
World Ending Stocks improve in December but decline
y/y
In the December report the world ending stocks have
improved due to increase stocks predicted in India, the
US, Australia and Bangladesh.
The stock position in the US will increase 6.63% to 1 mt in
December forecast while stocks in India are forecasted to
increase by 2.19% to 2.6 mt. The stocks in Australia are
expected to increase by 29% on y/y while 17% increase in
stocks is expected from the November forecast.
However, world cotton stocks are forecast to decline 8 %
(1.6 mt or 7.7 million bales) in 2016/17 to 19.4 mt (89.1
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
UnitedStates
India
Australia
Brazil
Uzbekistan
Burkina
MaliCotton Exports 2016/17 Vs 2015/16 ('000 tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17
Source: USDA
million bales), compared to last year stock positions which
is the lowest in 5 years.
World Balance Sheet
Domestic production unchanged in December
USDA estimates India cotton production at 346 lakh bales (1
bale =170 kg) or 27 million bales or 5.88 mt in 2016/17,
unchanged from last month but higher by 2% from last
year.
The area was down 2% from last month and down nearly
12% from 2015/16 due to a decline in acreage in northern
India. Despite the lower acreage the production forecast is
higher due to higher yield. In 2016/17, yield is estimated at
560 kilograms per hectare, up 6% from the 5-year average
due to normal monsoon and improved pest and disease
management in top cotton growing states of Maharashtra
and Gujarat. Cotton harvesting is complete in the northern
20.06
22.49
24.31
21.08
19.23 19.41
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Thousands
World Cotton Ending Stocks (mt)
Source: USDA
2015/16
Nov Dec M/M Y/Y
Beginning Stock 24.31 21.08 21.08 0.00 -13.31
Production 21.00 22.49 22.70 0.93 8.07
Imports 7.67 7.67 7.69 0.27 0.23
Total Supplies 52.98 51.23 51.46 0.45 -2.88
Domestic Use 24.23 24.38 24.37 -0.07 0.58
Exports 1.80 7.67 7.69 0.34 327.99
Total Demand 26.02 32.05 32.06 0.03 23.19
Ending Stocks 21.08 19.23 19.41 0.96 -7.90
Source: USDA
Cotton World Balance Sheet (Million tonnes)
2016/17 %Chg

6. USDA Update – Soybean and Cotton
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
cotton areas of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan but still going
on in Gujarat and Maharashtra.
In the December forecast, the domestic use has been lower
compared to last month’s predictions due to anticipation of
reduced cotton yarn import by China which results in the
increase in ending stock by 2.2% m/m and 7.76% y/y.
India Balance Sheet
6,205
6,750
6,423
5,748
5,879 5,879
5,100
5,400
5,700
6,000
6,300
6,600
6,900
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
India Cotton Production ('000 tonnes)
Source: USDA
2015/16
Nov Dec M/M Y/Y
Beginning Stock 17.27 14.02 14.02 0.00 -18.84
Production 33.81 34.58 34.58 0.00 2.28
Imports 1.37 2.31 2.31 0.00 68.24
Total Supplies 52.45 50.91 50.91 0.00 -1.07
Domestic Use 31.06 30.74 30.42 -1.03 -2.06
Exports 7.38 5.38 5.38 0.00 -27.17
Total Demand 38.44 36.11 35.79 -0.88 -6.89
Ending Stocks 14.02 14.78 15.11 2.19 7.76
Source: USDA
India Cotton Balance Sheet (Million Bales (170 kg))
2016/17 %Chg