Martin Maguire's presentation in the 2nd Workdshop on usability of geographic information, 23rd March 2010 at UCL, London. See details at http://www.virart.nottingham.ac.uk/GI%20Usability/index.html
المؤتمر الاول لإدارة الازمات و الكوارث و الحد م اخطارها نحو فعالية افضل للحد من اخطار الكوارث
Thursday, April 23, 2009
http://www.eip.gov.eg/crisisCD/Main.htm
This is a summary of some of the key types of geoengineering, including both SRM (Solar Radiation Managment) and CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal).
*Note - while all of the information featured in this presentation is entirely factual, Harrison Wyld, Lulu Richmond and Bluebird are fictional entities and are part of an alternate reality initiative by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. More information at http://abc.net.au/bluebird
Abstract. This talk is about the GEOtop and JGrass-NewAge model, their physical bases, their informatics based on older (the first) and new (the latter) programming paradigms, the lessons I learned in building them with my group of people in an academic environment, their future, and the understanding that there is no the best model, but certainly a better way to do models.
Hydrological modelling was for long time, and still is, almost a synonym of simulating rainfall-runoff. Recently, however, the scope of hydrology became wider, even among engineers. Modelling in hydrology now certainly still means modelling discharges, but also modelling snow, evapotranspiration and turbulent exchanges, and surface/subsurface interactions. With the goal of reproducing the whole picture of the terrestrial hydrological fluxes, my coworkers and I worked together in the last decade to build new models and new types of models. We started from the lesson by P. Eagleson, and we built first the process-based (grid based) GEOtop model. GEOtop is “terrain-based” (it is based on the use of digital terrain models and uses the knowledge of interaction between morphology and process) “distributed” (all the simulated variables are calculated for each pixel of the basin) model of “the water cycle” (it simulates all the components of the water cycle, accounting for both the mass budget and the energy budget, the two budget equations being coupled through the temperature of the soil, which controls evaporation, hydraulic conductivity, and accumulation of the snowpack). However, this GEOtop was intimidating many, either for the complexity of the process and its internals, and possibly not adapted to large scale modelling where faster solutions are required.
Therefore we also worked on a different, more parsimonious model, called JGrass-NewAGE. From the lesson learned by implementing and maintaining GEOtop, we also found necessary to build the new model on new informatics. This system sacrifices process details in favour of efficient calculations. It is made of components apt at returning statistical hydrological quantities, opportunely averaged in time and space. One of the goals of this implementation effort was to create the basis for a physico-statistical hydrology in which the hydrological spatially distributed dynamics are reduced into low dimensional components, when necessary surrogating the internal heterogeneities with "suitable noise" and a probabilistic description. Unlike other efforts of synthesis, JGrass-NewAge keeps the spatial description explicit, at various degrees of simplicity. This has been made possible by opportune processing of distributed information which, in this way, has become part of the model itself.
Climate Change is both a disruption, and opens opportunities in the Arctic: an integrated EU policy for the Arctic.
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The polar components of the Copernicus Services must be brought forward, taking into account stakeholders needs: EU KEPLER starts Jan. 2019, www.kepler-polar.eu.
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المؤتمر الاول لإدارة الازمات و الكوارث و الحد م اخطارها نحو فعالية افضل للحد من اخطار الكوارث
Thursday, April 23, 2009
http://www.eip.gov.eg/crisisCD/Main.htm
This is a summary of some of the key types of geoengineering, including both SRM (Solar Radiation Managment) and CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal).
*Note - while all of the information featured in this presentation is entirely factual, Harrison Wyld, Lulu Richmond and Bluebird are fictional entities and are part of an alternate reality initiative by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. More information at http://abc.net.au/bluebird
Abstract. This talk is about the GEOtop and JGrass-NewAge model, their physical bases, their informatics based on older (the first) and new (the latter) programming paradigms, the lessons I learned in building them with my group of people in an academic environment, their future, and the understanding that there is no the best model, but certainly a better way to do models.
Hydrological modelling was for long time, and still is, almost a synonym of simulating rainfall-runoff. Recently, however, the scope of hydrology became wider, even among engineers. Modelling in hydrology now certainly still means modelling discharges, but also modelling snow, evapotranspiration and turbulent exchanges, and surface/subsurface interactions. With the goal of reproducing the whole picture of the terrestrial hydrological fluxes, my coworkers and I worked together in the last decade to build new models and new types of models. We started from the lesson by P. Eagleson, and we built first the process-based (grid based) GEOtop model. GEOtop is “terrain-based” (it is based on the use of digital terrain models and uses the knowledge of interaction between morphology and process) “distributed” (all the simulated variables are calculated for each pixel of the basin) model of “the water cycle” (it simulates all the components of the water cycle, accounting for both the mass budget and the energy budget, the two budget equations being coupled through the temperature of the soil, which controls evaporation, hydraulic conductivity, and accumulation of the snowpack). However, this GEOtop was intimidating many, either for the complexity of the process and its internals, and possibly not adapted to large scale modelling where faster solutions are required.
Therefore we also worked on a different, more parsimonious model, called JGrass-NewAGE. From the lesson learned by implementing and maintaining GEOtop, we also found necessary to build the new model on new informatics. This system sacrifices process details in favour of efficient calculations. It is made of components apt at returning statistical hydrological quantities, opportunely averaged in time and space. One of the goals of this implementation effort was to create the basis for a physico-statistical hydrology in which the hydrological spatially distributed dynamics are reduced into low dimensional components, when necessary surrogating the internal heterogeneities with "suitable noise" and a probabilistic description. Unlike other efforts of synthesis, JGrass-NewAge keeps the spatial description explicit, at various degrees of simplicity. This has been made possible by opportune processing of distributed information which, in this way, has become part of the model itself.
Climate Change is both a disruption, and opens opportunities in the Arctic: an integrated EU policy for the Arctic.
Copernicus is a key tool for the EU Arctic policy, but dedicated capabilities are needed:EU’s Polar Expert Group (PEG) reports.
The polar components of the Copernicus Services must be brought forward, taking into account stakeholders needs: EU KEPLER starts Jan. 2019, www.kepler-polar.eu.
This is sample project based learning Mathematics .
The students learnt "Linear Equation taking Arctic sea ice amount "Through this project the students developed the awareness that we should be very conscious about the global warming under facilitation of teacher Pratima Nayak
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Non-specialists’ understanding of climate change information
1. Non-specialists understanding
of climate change images
Martin Maguire, ESRI
Loughborough University
m.c.maguire@lboro.ac.uk
Workshop on usability of geographic information UCL, London 24 March 2010
2. Introduction
Public understanding of basic climate change issues growing but
there are still areas where knowledge is limited (DfT, 2010).
Global maps a key part of this communication.
Important to understand the context in which information received,
for example:
Helping with home work
Reading on a train
Viewing an interactive display
Based on experiences from an EU
collaborative project (EuroClim)
2 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
3. EuroClim project IST-2000-28766
Glacier Melt Area
Glacier Surface type
Datasets
Sea ice area Sea ice break up date
e.g. sea ice thickness
Sea ice concentration Sea ice extent
Snow Cover Area Snow Surface Wetness.
www.euroclim.net Snow Surface Temp. Days of Snow Cover
3 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
4. Jargon
Every scientific community has its own technical terms or jargon.
Terms used in relation to the EU-IST Euroclim project:
“Cryosphere”
Techniques related to monitoring now cover
“Solar radiation albedo”
“Strength of radar backscatter”
“Passive microwave derived snow covered area”
Brief descriptions of technical terms required, expressing them in
simple language
4 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
5. EuroClim monitoring areas within the Cryosphere
5 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
6. Glacier Surface area
Glacier surface area
6 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
7. Snow cover
7 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
8. Sea Ice extent and concentration
Year Sea Ice Sea Ice
Extent Concentration
1980 7.8 4.8
1985 6.9 4.2
1990 6.2 4.5
1995 6.1 4.4
2000 6.3 4.3
2002 6.0 4.0
2004 6.1 4.4
Figures in million sq. km
8 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
9. Example of EuroClim product: Growing season length
9 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
10. Time series maps
Time series maps (often as animations) effective at showing how a
climatic variable or feature will change over time.
Can show how a region (e.g. the Arctic sea) may experience
reducing sea ice leading to an ice free summer in future years.
With a dynamic display sometimes hard for the viewer to gain more
than an impression of what is happening.
Example (Purdue University):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJpj8UUMTaI
Clearer example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAUf1bRIFxM&feature=channel
A feature allowing the users to select and plot two or more places on
the globe for comparison over time might be helpful in making the
information clearer.
10 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
11. Colour stereotypes 1
11 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
12. Colour stereotypes 2
Image from NCAR showing projected
temperatures for 2036 as departures
from the average (anomalies)
Image from NCAR showing
temperatures for 1913 as departures
from the average (anomalies)
12 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
13. Understanding the nature and effects of climate change
Distinction of „climate‟ and „weather‟ +2C Equatorial regions:
desertification and crops fail;
Australia: crops and livestock fail;
Timescales for change? Northern Europe: warmth improves
crops
+3C Alps: end of ski industry;
Likely effects on communities, Wildlife: widespread extinctions
across Africa, South America and
different industries, farming, etc. Asia.
(Stern: “Politicians have no idea +4C Northern Europe: suffers
of the impact of climate change”, summer heat waves; Amazon:
rainforests die; Greenland: ice cap
Times, March 13, 2009) melting
+5C Global: Crop failure, billions of
people suffer starvation and drought.
What will it actually mean in terms that Rising seas threaten many cities
can be understood? Sunday Times, 15.03.09, p9
13 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
14. Innovative maps 1
14 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
15. Innovative maps 2.1
15 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009
17. Conclusion
Climate information is a complex subject so is important to
communicate information to the public in a neutral and
straightforward way but without over simplifying it.
Maps are a good tool for this.
Can allow non-specialists to absorb and try to interpret climate
change variables and information for themselves.
Necessary to provide enough background explanation about the
information presented so that people feel confident in taking on
this challenge.
17 Workshop on usability of geographic information Nottingham 17 March 2009