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1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
04 June 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
CORIANDER
JUNE 12220 13023 12050 13023 +3.99 53300
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
12374
SUPP. 2
11726
PIVOT
12699
Coriander short term
trend is up and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
13347
RES. 2
13672
CASTORSEED
JULY 4287 4294 4212 4218 -1.38 62260
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4189
SUPP. 2
4159
PIVOT
4241
Castorseed short term
trend is up and May
continue in coming
days..RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4271
RES. 2
4323
TURMERIC
JUNE 7950 8070 7810 7842 -1.38 16365
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7745
SUPP. 2
7647
PIVOT
7907
Turmeric short term
trend is down and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8005
RES. 2
8167
GUARGUM
JUNE 11690 12040 11620 11740 +1.38 8766
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
11560
SUPP. 2
11380
PIVOT
11800
Guargum short term
trend is down and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11980
RES. 2
12220
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4218 4277 -1.38
CHANA 4655 4710 -1.17
CORIANDER 13023 12523 +3.98
GUARGUM 11740 11580 +1.38
JEERA 17700 17835 -0.76
MUSTARD
SEED
4279 4307 -0.65
SOYABEAN 4080 4107 -0.66
TURMERIC 7842 7952 -1.38
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 19-06-2015 7832.00 -120.00 -1.51%
CASTOR SEED NEW 19-06-2015 4023.00 -56.00 -1.37%
CHANA 19-06-2015 4651.00 -61.00 -1.29%
SOYABEAN 19-06-2015 4071.00 -47.00 -1.14%
REFINED SOY OIL 19-06-2015 619.80 -7.05 -1.12%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
19-06-2015 4273.00 -32.00 -0.74%
JEERA 19-06-2015 17670.00 -120.00 -0.67%
BARLEY 19-06-2015 1239.50 -4.00 -0.32%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
19-06-2015 1831.00 -5.00 -0.27%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
CORIANDER 19-06-2015 13023.00 500.00 3.99%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India’s exports are projected down 50% in 2014/15 to 1 million tons, but
could recover partially in 2015/16 to 1.2 million tons, according to the
latest report by International CottonAdvisory Committee(ICAC).Area in
India reached a record 12.3 million hectares in 2014/15, but will likely
decrease 5% to 11.6 million hectares in 2015/16. Applying the average
yield in the last three years would result in a 2% decline in production to
6.4 million tons, ICAC said.Consumption in India, the second largest
consumer of cotton lint, is projected up 3% to 5.4 million tons in
2015/16.World cotton area is forecast down 7% to 31.3 million hectares in
2015/16 due to low prices in 2014/15 and as a result, world cotton
production is projected down 9% to 23.9 million tons. The announcement
of a lower subsidy for 2015 in China is expected to lead to a 12% decrease
in area to 3.8 million hectares. Production in China could fall to 5.4 million
tons in 2015/16.World cotton consumption increased 3% in 2014/15 to
24.3 million tons and is projected to grow another 2% in 2015/16 to 24.9
million tons. Domestic cotton prices in China fell from an average of 139
cents/lb in 2013/14 to just under 100 cents/lb in the first five months of
2015 due to the ending of China’s reserve policy and a shift toward a more
market-oriented policy. Assuming prices remain around the same level in
2015/16, cotton consumption is likely to remain stable at 7.7 million tons in
2015/16. Instead, consumption isexpected continue growing in nearby
countriesIn 2011/12, Chinese imports more than doubled from the previous
season to 5.3 million tons and surpassed the total volume of imports by the
rest of world, which reached only 4.4 million tons. However, in the
following seasons, Chinese imports declined while imports outside of
China have steadily grown. In 2014/15, imports outside of China are likely
to increase 6% to 5.9 million tons, but will not offset the 45% decline in
Chinese imports to 1.6 million tons. As a result, world imports are
projected down 12% to 7.5 million tons in 2014/15. However, in 2015/16
world cotton imports may recover modestly, increasing 2% to 7.7 million
tons with imports outside of China rising by 3% to 6.1 million tons. U.S.
exports which experienced good demand for much of 2014/15, are
expected to remain stable in 2015/16 at 2.3 million tons.
Guarseed and Gurgum futures continued to rise on expectations
that the monsoon would beslightly delayed than expected. The
onset of the southwest monsoon over the south Indianstate of
Kerala has been delayed amid the sluggish pace of rain clouds.
The normal datefor onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1. It
also marks the official onset on rainsacross the country. The IMD
had predicted that themonsoon would hit Kerala on May 30. Guar
complex continues to gain on account of these reports, extending a
fantastic weekfor the prices. NCDEX Guarseed futures for July
jumped to a high near Rs 5400 per quintaland currently trade at Rs
5350 per quintal, up 1.81% on the day. Guargum futures for
Julytrade at Rs 12220 per tonne, up 3.30% on the day. Excellent
demand is emerging in the spotmarkets with Guar hovering
around Rs 4830 per quintal in Jodhpur. Stocks are thin and
spottraders are refusing to sell at lower rates.
Jeera managed to hold on as well as spot markets witnessed
very thin arrivals. NCDEXJeera futures for July are trading at Rs
18225 per quintal, up 0.05% on the day afterhitting highs above
Rs 18400 earlier. The counter has eased from levels around
Rs18400/18500 constantly in the current week as spot prices
lingered around record highs. These levels mark the highest in last
one week for the benchmark futures.
Stockiest liquidation was seen in turmeric market due to limited
demand by exporters and stockiest at current level. Traders are
expecting the total production in the range of 50-52 lakh bags in
the current year, down 20 lakh bags from the last year in the same
period. Sources also stated that around 75lakh bags of total stocks
have been reported in local mandies.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
Around 3.45 crore bales of cotton has been pressed so far all over the country,
according to reports of Indian Cotton federation (ICF). ICF believes that cotton
growers in states like Gujarat and Maharashtra may switch to crop like pulses and
groundnut as they find cotton crop less lucrative due to untimely rains and lower
prices. Following the expectation of the delayed monsoon and lower than expected
rainfall this year, the Maharashtra government fears that the situation of cotton belts
could get worse and to hedge the risk, the government is planning to promote non Bt
cotton seed, which are have lower production costs than the Bt variety of cotton. As
per the data of Ministry of Agriculture, the cost of cultivating cotton is highest in
Maharashtra which leads to the lowest profit margins. The monsoon in country is
likely to arrive late as forecasted by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). IMD
believes that southwest monsoon will arrive by June 5, on the southern coast of Kerala
against the normal start date of June 01. IMD earlier forecasted the onset date of
Monsoon as May 30 with the model error of plus-minus 4 days. Monsoon rains during
the previous year i.e. 2014, arrived on Kerala coast on June 6. Around 8.82 lakh
hectares of cotton have been planted as on 29th May throughout the country,
approximately 14.25% higher when compared the sowing of cotton during the
corresponding period last year which was 7.72 lakh hectares, said Press Information
Bureau (PIB).
Around 72% of cotton planting has been completed in USA as on May 31 this year,
which was 47% last week and 61% last year on same date, according to USDA. The
five year average sowing progress is 78% as on date, slightly higher than the current
sowing pace. China imported around 160,800 tonnes of cotton in April, approximately
28.3% lower when compared to the volume imported during the same month last year,
according to the official custom data. During the initial four month of the year,
imports to China fell by around 38.2 percent year on year to 609,000 tonnes, said
China Cotton Association (CCA) citing custom data. China imported around 160,800
tonnes of cotton in April, approximately 28.3% lower when compared to the volume
imported during the same month last year, according to the official custom data.
During the initial four month of the year, imports to China fell by around 38.2 percent
year on year to 609,000 tonnes, said China Cotton Association (CCA) citing custom
data.
CENTER 03-June-15 02-June-15 Change
AMRAVATI NA NA -
MAHESANA NA NA -
RAJKOT 560 970 -490
PATAN NA NA -
DEESA NA NA -
BHIWANI NA NA -
GONDAL 351 261 +90
6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY CORIANDER JUNE ABOVE 13025 TARGET 13050 13090 SL
BELOW 12995
BUY GUARGUM JUNE ABOVE 11890 TARGET 11940 12000 SL
BELOW 11830
SELL TURMERIC JUNE BELOW 7810 TARGET 7770 7710 SL
ABOVE 7870
SELL CASTORSEED JULY BELOW 4218 TARGET 4193 4163 SL
ABOVE 4248
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