Refine Soy oil continue to gain in the calendar year, may retreat in coming months on better oilseed production prospects

1. Agri-Commodity Update -Refine Soyoil
Monday, December 19, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Refine Soy oil continue to gain in the calendar year, may
retreat in coming months on better oilseed production
prospects
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Prepared by
Ritesh Kumar Sahu
Analyst - Agri Commodities
Riteshkumar.sahu@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6165
Anuj Gupta
Head–Technical Research (Commodity & Currency)
Anuj.gupta@angelbroking.com
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2. Agri-Commodity Update -Refine Soyoil
Monday, December 19, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Price Performance
Soy oil prices in domestic and international market surged
during the last quarter of the current calendar year
regardless of the record production estimates of oilseeds
in the world. The higher price of soybean and palm oil
during the current oil year compared to last year is
supporting the soy oil prices.
The US department of agriculture (USDA), has forecast the
record Oilseed production at 554.7 million tonnes (mt), up
6.2% compared to last year production. Despite, record
oilseed production forecast the prices of edible oil prices in
2016/17 were at higher levels mainly due to shortage in
palm oil supply as palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia are
still recovering from the El Nino weather phenomenon.
The soy oil prices have increase more than 11% since
October on CBOT and National Commodities and
Derivative Exchange (NCDEX). This increase is mainly due
to forecast of higher import and consumption demand
from China, acute shortage of highest consuming, cheaper
palm and increase in bio-diesel mandate in the US,
Indonesia and Malaysia.
Moreover, the weather uncertainty over soybean crop in
South American countries– Brazil and Argentina- also
factoring in the prices of soybean and soyoil. This year, La
Niña, is hanging on the Eastern Pacific will suppressed
rainfall in South America during the sowing and growing
season of soybean, particularly in Argentina and Southern
Brazil. The market participants are certainly expecting
some weather disturbances in the form of moisture stress
during the current soybean season.
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Ncdex (Rs/10Kg)
Cbot (Cents/ lbs)
Source: Reuters
Monthly Average Soy oil Price- NCDEX & CBOT
Import dependence of Soyoil may come down as
domestic production to increases in 2016/17
India largely imports about 65-70% of its annual edible oil
requirement and thus the domestic prices mainly follow
the global trends of soybean oil on CBOT and palm oil
prices in Malaysia.
As per 1st
advance estimate for 2016/17, Government of
India forecast the oilseed production to increase about
37.5% to 34.8 mt compared to last year production. This
sharp recovery in total oilseed production will definitely
improve the domestic availability of the edible oils to
about 5 mt — an increase of 22% over last year. Similarly,
the production of soybean oil in the country is expected to
increase to 15 lakh tonnes (lt) in 2016/17, up by 51.8%
compared to last year production.
In spite of higher domestic edible oil and soyoil
production, overall imports of edible oil in 2016/17 are
forecasted to increase to 16.1 mt in USDA December 2016
report. In 2015/16, India imported about 15 mt of edible
oil. The increase in edible oil in the current oil year (Nov-
3.2
-1.5
2.6
11.1
14.3
-8.9
7.1
11.2
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Soyoil- Quarterly price Change (%)
NCDEX Cbot
18
15
12
10
14
15
5
10
15
20
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Hundreds
Soyoil Production (lakh tonnes) - India
Source: USDA

3. Agri-Commodity Update -Refine Soyoil
Monday, December 19, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Government increase tariff values
As per the release by the Central Board of Excise and
Customs on 15-Dec2016, government has raised the base
import price (tariff values) of crude soyoil by $42 per
tonnes to $912 per tonnes.
The tariff value of Crude soy oil crossed $900 per tonnes
for the first time since August 2014.
The tariff value of crude soyoil was increased for the sixth
time in three month by the government. It is increase by
about 21.3% since mid july and 25% in 2016.
Base import prices of edible oils are revised every
fortnight based on their movement in the international
market, as well as changes in the foreign exchange rate.
The prices were last revised on Nov 15. The government
calculates import duty on the base import price,
irrespective of the actual import price.
India Balance Sheet
590
630
670
710
750
700
750
800
850
900
950
18-Jan-16
29-Jan-16
15-Feb-16
29-Feb-16
16-Mar-16
31-Mar-16
13-Apr-16
13-May-16
31-May-16
15-Jun-16
30-Jun-16
15-Jul-16
29-Jul-16
12-Aug-16
31-Aug-16
15-Sep-16
30-Sep-16
14-Oct-16
31-Oct-16
15-Nov-16
30-Nov-16
15-Dec-16
Soyoil Futures Vs Tariff Values - 2016
Tarrif value ($/tonnes)
Futures Price (Rs/10kg)
1000 2015/16
Nov Dec M/M Y/Y
Beginning Stock 1.99 4.53 4.53 0.00 127.64
Production 9.97 13.53 15.13 11.83 51.76
Imports 43.60 40.00 38.00 -5.00 -12.84
Total Supplies 55.56 58.06 57.66 -0.69 3.78
Consumption 51.00 54.00 54.00 0.00 5.88
Exports
Total Demand 51.00 54.00 54.00 0.00 5.88
Ending Stocks 4.53 3.68 3.66 -0.54 -19.21
Source: USDA
India Soyoil Balance Sheet (Lakh tonnes)
2016/17 %Chg
Oct) is due to increase in consumption demand of the
country which, jumped to 22.7 mt in 2016/17 compared
to 21 mt last year.
In case of soyoil, the consumption during 2016/17 is
forecasted at 54 lt, higher by 5.9% compared to last year
consumption.
However, USDA forecasts imports of soybean oil to be
down by about 12.8% to 38 lt in 2016/17 compared to last
year imports due to higher crushing of soybean this
season.
As per Solvent Extractor Association of India (SEA) data,
India import of soybean oil declined by 37% to 1,64,286
tonnes in November from 2,56,836 tonnes in the year-ago
period. This is second reduction in as many months.
During the October 2016, the reduction was about 31.4%
m/m and 40.5% y/y.
India’s 2015/16 oil year, crude soyoil import were 4.23 mt
vs 2.99 mt in 2014/15– an increase of 41% y/y for the
current oil year (Nov-Oct).
29.6
33.1
40.6
51.0
54.0 54.0
20
30
40
50
60
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
India - Soyoil Comsumption (lakh tonnes)
Source: USDA
10.9
18.3
28.0
43.6
40.0 38.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Hundreds
Soyoil Imports (Lakh Tonnes) - India
Source: USDA

4. Agri-Commodity Update -Refine Soyoil
Monday, December 19, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Global Scenario
As per USDA report, 2016/17 global soy oil supply and demand
estimates include higher production, consumption and
decreasing ending stocks compared to last year.
Global soy oil production is projected higher by 4.15% to 53.9
mt on increasing world soybean supplies and increasing
soybean crush for the US, China and India. In 2015/16, the
production was 51.8 mt.
The top soy oil producing countries in the world are China, the
US, Argentina and Brazil. China is expected to produce 6.4%
higher at 15.5 mt in 2016/17 similarly the US also will produce
10.1 mt, up 1.56% compared to last year production.
The top soy oil consuming countries are China, the US, Brazil,
India and Argentina. For 2016/17, USDA has expected the
world consumption to increase by 4.35% compared to last
year consumption to 54 mt. The consumption forecast of all
the top consuming countries is higher in 2016/17. The
consumption in China and India is higher due to higher per
capita consumption while in the US and Brazil, the use of
higher percentage of biofuel for 2016/17 increased the
consumption.
In late November, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
of United States published its final ruling on the 2017
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) blending obligations when it
sets a target of compulsory blending of biomass-based diesel
at 2 billion gallons in 2017, up from 1.9 billion in 2016.
43.1
45.1
49.1
51.8
53.7 53.9
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2016/17 2016/17
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Nov Dec
Thousands
World- Soyoil Production (Million tonnes)
Source: USDA
On this basis, USDA raised its forecast of 2016/17
consumption of soybean oil for biodiesel this month by
250 million pounds (0.11 mt) to 6.2 billion pounds (2.8
mt), up from the 5.67 billion pounds (25.7 mt) in 2015/16.
World Balance Sheet
Price Outlook
For its consumption need, India imports about 70% of
soyoil and thus prices in the domestic market depend
heavily on the prevailing international prices. As shown
below, the soy oil prices in the domestic market are at
four year high due to firm international prices. The
domestic production of soybean oil is expected to be
higher since 2013/14 season but the import dependence
is still high.
In the current season, soyoil prices have increased due to
the fall in the palm oil supplies amid El Nino phenomenon
in 2015 and higher domestic usages of palm oil in
1000 2015/16
Nov Dec M/M Y/Y
Beginning Stock 3.76 3.81 3.81 0.00 1.28
Production 51.79 53.65 53.95 0.55 4.15
Imports 11.78 11.39 11.27 -1.11 -4.33
Total Supplies 67.33 68.85 69.02 0.24 2.51
Consumption 51.73 53.61 53.98 0.70 4.35
Exports 11.79 11.73 11.61 -1.55 -1.55
Total Demand 63.52 65.34 65.59 0.38 3.26
Ending Stocks 3.81 3.56 3.43 -3.60 -9.95
Source: USDA
World Soyoil Balance Sheet (million tonnes)
2016/17 %Chg
550
600
650
700
750
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
DecPrice Comparision - Ref Soy oil
Y2013 Y2014 Y2015 Y2016

5. Agri-Commodity Update -Refine Soyoil
Monday, December 19, 2016
www.angelcommodities.com
Indonesia. The increase in soybean prices due to higher
demand from China, higher biodiesel mandate in the US
and probable impact of La Nina on South American
soybean may keep the soyoil prices higher in the
International market.
However, the prices of soyoil may cool down in later part
of next year as there are good projections for palm oil
output in the second quarter of 2017 and there might be a
weaker demand from China and India due to higher
production of oilseeds.
The soy oil prices may only get firmer if weather problems
in Argentina and Brazil occur due to La Nina. With positive
forecast of fresh rains in the region the market
participants and traders belief that the soybean
production in South America may not affected due to
weather disturbance.
Thus, soy oil prices in the country may retreat from higher
levels as the oilseed production this year is expected to be
at record levels and world supply demand of soybean is at
comfortable level.
Technical outlook
As seen above monthly price chart of NCDEX Refsoyoil, it
is clearly seen that prices are trading in the bullish trend
from last couple of months. Last month we have noticed a
positive breakout on the charts followed by “Bullish
Candlestick” formation. As per the formation of price
chart, it is following “Higher Top and Higher Bottom”
formation which is basically a sign of bullish trend.
As per the moving average, prices are trading above its 5,
20, 50 and 100 EMA (Monthly basis), which is supportive for
the prices.
Technical indicator 14 month RSI is rising and MACD is also
showing positive divergence and both are suggesting
northward trend.
We expect Ref Soy oil price to find support at 705 – 700
levels. Trading consistently below 700 levels would lead
towards the strong support at 670 and then finally towards
the major support at 640 levels.
Resistance is now observed in the range of 755 – 760 levels.
Trading consistently above 760 would lead towards the
strong resistance at 790 and then finally towards the major
resistance at 820 levels.
Looking towards positive chart structure and indicators
supporting the bullish trend, we are recommending buy
NCDEX Refsoyoil for the target of 760.
Buy NCDEX Ref soyoil between 700 – 705, SL – 670, Target
– 755 / 760