The present political situation in Brazil is unpredictable. While it is difficult to forecast a possible winner for the Presidential election, there is consensus that regardless of who wins, there will be no drastic changes in Brazil's international relations.
President Dilma Rousseff's Workers’ Party (PT) will face tough competition from the opposition’s Aécio Neves representing the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) and Eduardo Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). Experts believe that the election is expected to go to a second round between President Rousseff and Neves.
Our report details nine key issues to understand & monitor in this Brazilian elections:
• The Brazilian economy
• Family Benefit
• World Cup
• Lula Factor
• Public Demonstrations
• Free Party Political Broadcast
• Monthly Payment Scandal
• Debates &
• Party Alliances
An Update on the Brazil Election - September 2014MSL
On 13 August, 2014 in a tragic event a private plane carrying one of the Brazilian presidential candidates crashed, killing all of those on board. As a result, a popular politician who was blocked from running for President due to missing a few signatures on her application form and instead became a VP candidate, stepped into the void as a new national Presidential candidate and has transformed the election dynamics and polls.
For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
An Update on the Brazil Election - September 2014MSL
On 13 August, 2014 in a tragic event a private plane carrying one of the Brazilian presidential candidates crashed, killing all of those on board. As a result, a popular politician who was blocked from running for President due to missing a few signatures on her application form and instead became a VP candidate, stepped into the void as a new national Presidential candidate and has transformed the election dynamics and polls.
For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
A Look at Veteran Unemployment in Five States, the Services Offered and Curre...Thomas Thorpe
This was my research/policy paper that I had written for my Political Science class. It will compare 5 states in how they are handling this issue and it will provide for my personal opinion on ways to change the future so that this is no longer an issue.
COVID19 presentation of data and analysis by Radius Energy Solutions. We plot regional, country and state trends as well as model the US States using Mortality Rate as the variable.
After opening of electoral race, our traditional Monthly Newsletter is in a new format. Regular reports about this year's elections will be produced, with quantitative and qualitative information.
In this first edition, we present an overview of main data provided by the Superior Electoral Court and surveys conducted by our monitoring team. And seeking a complete view, we include data of candidacies in the States, such as Bahia, Pará, Minas Gerais and São Paulo.
Always in quest of providing useful information, we wish everyone an election period with many debates!
The Newsletter of June has as focus the October elections, and brings an analysis of Henrique Meirelles as a possible next president of Brazil. Furthermore, we highlight themes related to female candidature, new rules for electoral ads on internet and the electoral race in 5 Brazilian state. Lastly, we approach also the political stalemate in the National Congress to approve the Legal Landmark of Personal Data.
In order to provide a further discussion tool, the Public Affairs team wishes a great reading!
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
A Look at Veteran Unemployment in Five States, the Services Offered and Curre...Thomas Thorpe
This was my research/policy paper that I had written for my Political Science class. It will compare 5 states in how they are handling this issue and it will provide for my personal opinion on ways to change the future so that this is no longer an issue.
COVID19 presentation of data and analysis by Radius Energy Solutions. We plot regional, country and state trends as well as model the US States using Mortality Rate as the variable.
After opening of electoral race, our traditional Monthly Newsletter is in a new format. Regular reports about this year's elections will be produced, with quantitative and qualitative information.
In this first edition, we present an overview of main data provided by the Superior Electoral Court and surveys conducted by our monitoring team. And seeking a complete view, we include data of candidacies in the States, such as Bahia, Pará, Minas Gerais and São Paulo.
Always in quest of providing useful information, we wish everyone an election period with many debates!
The Newsletter of June has as focus the October elections, and brings an analysis of Henrique Meirelles as a possible next president of Brazil. Furthermore, we highlight themes related to female candidature, new rules for electoral ads on internet and the electoral race in 5 Brazilian state. Lastly, we approach also the political stalemate in the National Congress to approve the Legal Landmark of Personal Data.
In order to provide a further discussion tool, the Public Affairs team wishes a great reading!
Brazilis New DirectionWendy HunterJournal of Democracy.docxAASTHA76
Brazilis New Direction
Wendy Hunter
Journal of Democracy, Volume 14, Number 2, April 2003, pp. 151-162
(Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2003.0034
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Florida International University (24 Feb 2014 10:41 GMT)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
BRAZIL’S NEW DIRECTION
Wendy Hunter
On 27 October 2002, the voters of Brazil chose Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) to be their next president, giving him
a wide margin of victory with 61.3 percent in a two-candidate runoff
against José Serra of the Social Democratic Party (PDSB). Does the
election—on his fourth try—of this lathe operator turned trade union
leader and the ascendance of his leftist party signal a historic shift in
Brazilian politics? What are the implications of a Lula presidency for
democracy in Brazil, and what is the larger situation of that democracy
now?
Should 2002 be seen as marking a new era in Brazilian politics? Is it
the start of a period in which a programmatic leftist party that has cham-
pioned popular participation, accountability, and redistributive change
supplants the political clientelism, social elitism, and technocratic policy
making for which Brazil is known? Or is it wiser to focus on the prag-
matic adjustments that the PT has made, the continuing sway of
conservative forces, and the multitude of constraints—political and eco-
nomic, domestic and international—that will hem in efforts to make
major changes?
On the one hand, the election of a candidate who is a true outsider is
a dramatic break with the pattern of Brazilian politics since the
postauthoritarian period began in 1985. President José Sarney (1985–
90), who inaugurated the civilian regime, had been a leading member of
the official government party under the military regime that ruled from
1964 to 1985. His successor, the disgraced Fernando Collor de Mello
(1990–92), had similar political origins. After serving as an opposition
Wendy Hunter is associate professor of government at the University
of Texas–Austin. Her current research investigates the effects of
democratization, economic globalization, and international diffusion
on decisions that affect social policy and human capital formation in
Latin America.
Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 2 April 2003
Latin America’s Lost Illusions
Journal of Democracy152
Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) senator during the military
period, Fernando Henrique Cardoso played a leading role in brokering
Brazil’s transition to democracy, forging an array of compromises with
outgoing actors and solidifying his establishment credentials, albeit as
a moderate social democrat affiliated initially with the PMDB and then
the PDSB.
Sarney, Collor, and Cardoso all came from elite backgrounds in a
soci ...
Thanks to the political irresponsibility of the PT and its allies in defending the corrupt Lula are contributing to the ascent of the egg of the fascist serpent in Brazil. By acting in this way, the PT and its allies lack the necessary intelligence to realize that the correlation of forces is entirely unfavorable to their pretensions. Insisting on the confrontation with the great majority of Brazilian society means plunging the Country into civil war whose consequences are unpredictable. In addition to having allied themselves with right-wing parties and politicians to govern, the PT and its allies are now contributing to the rise of the extreme right to power either in the 2018 presidential election or through a coup d'état if political radicalization reaches uncontrollable levels.
Brazil 2015: A Perfect Storm Derails President Rousseff's AgendaMSL
After only three months in office, President Dilma Rousseff’s approval rating fell from 46% in October to just 12% at the end of March, according to national polls conducted by Ibope. The reasons for the decrease are due to a so-called “perfect storm” – a combination of an economic crisis and political mistakes that fueled the mobilization of various sectors of society in large demonstrations in the main cities of Brazil, demanding anti-corruption measures and impeachment of the President.
In this report, we analyze the factors that led to this situation and share an outlook for 2015. For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group.
Nos Estados Unidos, a denúncia sobre a farsa do impeachment de Dilma Rousseff, encampada por grandes jornais como o The New York Times, ganha força agora entre parlamentares norte-americanos. Em carta a John Kerry, 33 parlamentares pedem ao secretário de Estado que se abstenha de declarações favoráveis ao golpista Michel Temer (PMDB); "Nosso governo deve expressar sua forte preocupação com as circunstâncias que envolvem o processo de impeachment e exigir a proteção da Constituição democrática no Brasil", afirmam os signatários do documento
Carta de políticos americanos para secretário de Estado dos EUADilmaRousseff
Congressistas pedem que representante americano demonstre preocupação com o processo de impeachment e apoio à retomada da democracia. Leia mais: https://goo.gl/sLgvgh
Analysis of the most viable candidates to the presidency of the republic of b...Fernando Alcoforado
Considerando o fato de o Brasil, como organização econômica, social e política, se encontrar em desintegração cujos sinais são evidentes em todas as partes do País e que a estagnação econômica atual tende a se agravar no Brasil com a elevação do desemprego e a redução das receitas do Estado que poderão inviabilizar sua capacidade de intervenção na economia, a eleição de um Presidente da República que não seja capaz de superar a crise atual e reativar a economia brasileira pode levar o País à convulsão social. Para evitar este cenário, é necessário eleger um Presidente da República que aumente a capacidade do governo brasileiro e das instituições políticas em geral de oferecer respostas eficazes para superação da crise política, econômica e social em que se debate a nação brasileira.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
The closer we get to the elections, the more debates come to fruition. The political scenario is one of uncertainty and a fertile field for the most varied analysis!
Our March newsletter goes on with the series "Presidential Candidates" with the polemic Jair Bolsonaro, besides many international, local, economic and political analysis.
In this edition, we also bring a bit of the day to day of the professional of government relations, with information for a better understanding of the practice.
Always with the aim of stimulating the best debate, we wish everyone an excellent reading!
A organização Repórteres sem Fronteiras publicou, em 24 de janeiro de 2013, um relatório intitulado “Brasil, o país dos trinta Berlusconi”, que aborda os importantes desequilíbrios e obstáculos que caracterizam o horizonte midiático do gigante sul-americano. O documento se baseia em uma investigação realizada em três etapas – Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo e Brasília – no decorrer de novembro de 2012.
Similar to Understanding Brazil's 2014 Presidential Election: The Parties Candidates and Issues That Will Determine Brazil’s Future Direction (20)
Is Technology Removing the ‘Care’ from Healthcare?MSL
We live in a digital age that is transforming healthcare. But, how does the industry need to adapt to fully engage in the digital future of the NHS?
New solutions are critical to embrace the benefits of improved digital technology in personalised care, while ensuring that patients are not marginalised in the process.
An enquiry led by US cardiologist, geneticist and digital medicine expert, Dr Eric Topol, explores how to support the deployment of digital healthcare technologies throughout the NHS.
MSL partnered with research firm Toluna to survey 1,846 marketing and communications leaders from Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, United Kingdom and the United States.
Powered by AI: Communications and Marketing in the Algorithm AgeMSL
MSL partnered with research firm Toluna to survey 1,846 marketing and communications leaders from Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, UK and US. We partnered with our colleagues at sister agency Publicis.Sapient who are experts in counselling companies and brands on the AI revolution.
A look inside the endless debate between traditional and digital media.
For more information write to Joshua Gardner, Vice President & North American Lead, Global Energy Practice, MSL | joshua.gardner@mslgroup.com
SCOTUS Launches New Economy with Legalized Sports BettingMSL
In a 6-3 decision in the case Murphy vs. National Collegiate Athletic Association, SCOTUS ruled that because Congress exceeded its constitutional authority when it passed PAPSA. In essence, Congress tried to prohibit state legislatures from repealing their existing statues that outlawed sports betting. Under a line of Supreme Court precedent known as the anti-commandeering doctrine, federal efforts to coerce states into enforcing federal law are unconstitutional violations of the Tenth Amendment.
To say this is just the beginning would be cliché, but what SCOTUS has wrought with its decision will have lasting consequences that go far beyond sports betting.
Our current consumption patterns are stretched to breaking point. Few would argue the need to fix our systems. It’s how to manage an economically viable and just transition that is making heads ache.
[Salterbaxter Directions] Moving The Goal PostsMSL
Is your business goal-ready to move beyond 2020? Explore a new generation of emerging sustainability goals that are unlocking business returns and driving transformational change.
The food market will experience rapid evolution in 2018, according to sector experts at MSL. A broad array of technological innovations will make it easier to acquire and consume foods and beverages tailored to our specific food needs, speeds and philosophies.
These insights emerge from the MSL’s annual analysis of top food trends compiled by its highly specialized food marketing and PR team, appearing as a shareable infographic. In recent years the agency’s forecast has been viewed more than 100,000 times. Past forecasts have spotted the emergence of major marketplace successes, including turmeric, coconut, ugly produce, food waste reduction and coffee as an ingredient.
The Second Technology Revolution: How the PR Business Needs To Change Once AgainMSL
Not even a decade after the PR industry turned on its head when social media ushered in the Age of Influence, technology once again is causing brands, companies and organizations to rethink its communication in dramatic ways. This time machines that process data and artificial intelligence, combined with immersive technologies like virtual reality, augmented reality and mixed reality, are creating new opportunities for “augmented influence” as well as giving communicators pause to manage a number of emerging new challenges from Machine Journalism to Artificial Influence.
SDG Signals - SBTribe Research by Salterbaxter MSLMSL
It’s been two years since the launch of the SDGs and the UN’s recent progress report highlights that support is uneven and needs to accelerate. New data sources, including
social media, continue to be vital tools to measure, monitor and report progress.
SDG Signals uncovers new insights about SDG communications online and which areas, people and brands are cutting through. We explore the overall SDG online conversation, providing clear opportunities for differentiation, with initial comparisons from the Technology and Food & Beverage sectors. Future editions will put the spotlight on other specific sectors and issue areas.
A joint initiative conducted by MSL and SPARK Neuro gives PR pros true cause for excitement. What was once only subjective – how much people are engaged with content and their emotional experience with it – can now be directly quantified by reading brain activity and other neurological responses.
For more information about Conversation2Commerce, email Erin.Lanuti@mslgroup.com or visit www.publicisC2C.com.
In PR2020, experts give us their perspective on what’s coming next in terms of tech disruptions, and how they believe this will impact the work we do. We explore influence, data, human science and machines, and our relation to them as communications professionals, business owners, governments, and human beings.
Write to us to start a conversation on how we can help you distill actionable insights and foresights from conversations and communities.
For more information contact Pascal Beucler, SVP & Chief Strategy Officer, Global, MSL (pascal.beucler@mslgroup.com) and Melanie Joe, Consultant – Research & Insights, MSL (melanie.joe@mslgroup.com)
[Salterbaxter Directions] Human Rights - The Time is NowMSL
Is your business up to speed on the risks and opportunities of human rights issues?
Learn from the early adopters of the UN Guiding Principles Reporting Framework and get ahead of the game.
For more information, connect with @salterbaxterMSL or reach out to us on Twitter @msl_group.
News in the Times of Digital - Indian Media TrendsMSL
The way India consumes news is changing in this digital age. 20:20 MSL's media trends infographic assesses Print v/s Online media consumption and how communications professionals can choose the right media mix through a structured approach.
Connect with our insights experts or share your feedback with us on Twitter @2020MSL and @msl_group.
To supplement Qorvis MSLGROUP's Guide to the Trump Administration, we have created a set of appendencies highlighting expected cabinet and staff appointments as of 12/1/2016.
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Public affairs and policy experts from Qorvis MSLGROUP have compiled an extensive election coverage and analysis of how the new U.S. President and Congress will move forward after one of the most bitter campaigns in American history.
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Each year, Directions takes an in-depth look at an area of sustainability and communications. This time, we’re delving into the quite sizeable gap that still exists between business and society. It’s not the void that interests us so much as the question of how it can be shrunk.
How do we move from just minding the gap to actually mending the gap?
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Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
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By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
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#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
3. 03
INTRODUCTION
Brazil is making news for many reasons this year.
From the World Cup, to national elections or preparations for the
2016 Rio Olympic Games, each topic presents an opportunity for this
beautiful and dynamic country to break free of common stereotypes
and become an increasingly understood nation.
Whether it's news stories about delays related to World Cup
preparations, or public protests related to living standards, it's clear
the international press are reporting on Brazil through a somewhat
sensationalist lens. What such stories fail to highlight is that these
topics are in a sense elements of an even more important event that
takes place this fall for all Brazilians: The 2014 Presidential election.
The World Cup and protest movements are actually just two of nine factors we have identified that
will influence the outcome of the election, scheduled to take place on October 5, 2014.
Determining Brazil’s next President and evolved vision for the nation will have a long-lasting impact
on Brazilian people, the economy and the country as a marketplace for international companies in
particular.
At this moment, one thing is clear: Brazilians want change and require a government and leader
strong enough to combat corruption and professionally manage public investments.
As our MSLGROUP teams in Brazil and around the world serve as business and communications
counselors for a variety of multinational corporations and foreign governments, the upcoming
election is of significant importance. MSLGROUP does not work with the Brazilian government or
its political parties, allowing us to focus entirely on advocating in the interest of our clients.
In addition to this report, which focuses on a more fundamental understanding of Brazil’s 2014
election, we will be releasing additional commentary, before and after the election, that will delve
deeper into topic-specific implications for the future of the country and economy.
Paulo Andreoli
Chairman, MSLGROUP Latin America
4. With a GDP of around US$ 2.2 trillion, Brazil is
the world's seventh largest economy. On
October 5th, 2014, around 143 million Brazilians
will head to the polls to elect their new president.
•
•
•
The first round of presidential voting is held on the first Sunday in October. Election day
is a national holiday
If no candidate receives more than a 50% plus one vote majority, then a run-off or
second-round voting is held the last Sunday of October
Voting is compulsory between the ages of 18 and 70, resulting in high voter turnout rates
of 85% or more
More information on Brazil’s electoral process and history can be found here:
http://countrystudies.us/brazil/100.htm
Brazil's Federal Presidential Election Process
The first round will likely see history
repeat itself with three political forces
dividing the electorate. With shifting
alliances nationally, regionally and locally,
the outcome is hard to predict.
04
5. 05
The three main national parties include:
Dilma Rousseff
Worker’s Party (PT)
By dividing the electorate between three parties and their candidates, it is almost certain that the
presidential election will go to a second round, scheduled for October 26.
Eduardo Campos
Brazilian
Socialist Party (PSB)
Aécio Neves
Brazilian Social
Democracy Party (PSDB)
• The current party of President Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party (PT) on the left
• The Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) on the center left
• The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), also on the center left.
Image Credits: Valentina Petrov / Shutterstock.com, blogdajoice.com, fotospublicas.s3.amazonaws.com
6. 06
Given the country's immense size, elections in Brazil are a significant undertaking:
27 federal units (26 States and the Federal District) and
5,570 municipal regions on a land mass covering
2
8.5 million km (the fifth largest country in the world by size,
2
similar to China at 9.5 million km , yet with one sixth of China’s population).
The sheer reach of the electoral process, given the low population density in many parts of
the country, is a logistical challenge faced by few democracies of this size.
7. Brazil
2014
07
Brazil's voting system was fully computerized in 1996, and in October
2014 around 22 million voters will be identified using biometric
information. These systems mean results can be announced just a few
hours after polling stations close. In addition to the presidential
elections, voters will also choose 513 federal representatives and one
third of the Senate's seats (each state has three senators). Elections will
also include a vote for state governors and state representatives.
Dilma Rousseff of the Worker's Party (or PT),
Brazil's first female president, is seeking re-
election having been voted into power in 2010. At
that time she won the second round of voting with
56.05% of all valid votes, knocking out José Serra,
of the PSDB, who collected 43.95% of all votes.
Back in 2010, Rousseff enjoyed the support of 10
smaller parties with varying ideologies. This
alliance will not be in place this time around,
because new parties have been created in recent
years (such as the PSD, Pros and Solidarity parties)
and some support has been lost to the Brazilian
Socialist Party (PSB) candidate.
Most support for the PT during the past four years
has come from the center-right Brazilian
Democratic Movement Party (PMDB),
guaranteeing attorney Michel Temer the post of
vice-president. He is considered a skilled politician
who has a good relationship with members of the
opposition. To achieve a majority from her
parliamentary base, Rousseff distributed
ministerial positions to parties from the left, center
and right of the political spectrum. This is likely to
continue this year. Additionally President Rousseff
will clearly have significant support from major
figures in her own party. Former President Lula
has promised to accompany her on the campaign
trail and to appear on TV programs leading up to
the election.
2014 will be the first presidential election since 1989
in which former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
will not be a direct participant (although many
assume he will be operating behind the scenes).
Michel Temer (PMDB) Vice-President
President Dilma Rousseff (PT) and former President Lula da Silva
Image Credits: cratonoticias.wordpress.com, riotimesonline.com
8. 08
In spite of not being a PT member from the outset
- having joined the party only in 2000 after leaving
the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) - President
Rousseff has never had to face opposition from her
own party. This fact is mainly due to her militant
left-wing past, which began during her late teens.
She was imprisoned by the military dictatorship
from 1970 to 1972. After her release, she graduated
with a degree in Economics and began to work in
public administration for the southern state of Rio
Grande do Sul. She joined the government in 2003
as the Energy Minister in former President Lula’s
first term of office and in 2005 was made Lula’s
Chief of Staff, after a corruption scandal - the
Mesalão - brought down key government figures
including the then Chief of Staff, José Dirceu. She
is of Bulgarian heritage and has a discreet,
personal style. Up until her election she had never
been involved in corruption cases, which
contributed to her victory in 2010, along with the
backing of President Lula. President Rousseff is
divorced and has a daughter and one
granddaughter.
Image Credit: Gil C / Shutterstock.com
9. 09
The main opposition candidate is economist Aécio
Neves, who is 54 and the grandson of former
president Tancredo Neves. He is a member of the
PSDB and was the governor of Minas Gerais state
from 2003 to 2010 (Brazil's second-largest
electoral college), a federal representative and
former president of the Federal Congress. He is
currently a Senator. He has solid support from his
home state and has always remained steadfastly
opposed to the PT. In 2010, he was able to help
elect his successor as governor of Minas Gerais.
However, he is not particularly popular in São
Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral state. He is likely
to look to São Paulo when choosing a vice-
president in an attempt to boost his candidacy, an
approach supported by former president Fernando
Henrique Cardoso, the PSDB's strongest
supporter. Support will also come from the
Democrat Party (DEM) on the right and the
Popular Socialist Party (PPS), a moderate left
party.
Opposition
The newcomer in this 2014 campaign is Eduardo
Campos (PSB), who stood down as governor of
Pernambuco State to stand as a presidential
candidate. He is the youngest candidate at 48 and
supported the federal government, which was run
by the PT, until last year. He is the grandson of
Miguel Arraes, a radical leftist leader exiled during
the military dictatorship, but has a milder approach
to politics. Minister for Science and Technology
between 2004 and 2005 in the first Lula
administration, he was subsequently elected state
governor of Pernambuco in 2006 and then easily
re-elected with the former president's support.
Campos is a believer in development and has
always pushed for federal funding for his own
state.
Not well-known outside Pernambuco, his trump
card is his candidate for vice-president, Marina
Silva, a former PT senator and Minister of the
Environment during the Lula administration, who
is well-known internationally for her sustainability
credentials.
Eduardo Campos (PSB)Aécio Neves (PSDB)
Image Credit: blogdajoice.com, federasul.com.br
10. 10
Marina Silva originally planned to stand as a
presidential candidate, attempting to create a new
party named Rede (“Network” in Brazilian
Portuguese), to support her candidacy. She
needed 492,000 signatures from voters in order to
gain ratification for the new party from the TSE
(Superior Electoral Tribunal). However, only
442,500 signatures were accepted – less than the
minimum number required by law – and as a result
she decided to throw her support behind Campos.
There was much controversy around her new
party’s rejected registration, as tens of thousands
of signatures were invalidated at the last moment
and some claim this was an effort by the PT party
to derail Silva’s political challenge.
In 2010, Marina Silva stood as a candidate for the
Green Party and obtained 19.3% of the vote in the
first round of the presidential election. This was
considered a success for a first attempt at the
presidency, but she lagged far behind in the
subsequent battle for one of two spots in the
second round.
Silva’s personal story contributes to her political following and support. She grew up as one of eleven
children in a community of poor rubber tappers in the remote western state of Acre. Lacking any formal
education and orphaned at age 16, she moved to Rio Branco, the state capital, where she received a
Catholic education and worked as a maid. She graduated from university at 26 and became increasingly
active promoting workers’ rights and environmental issues.
In theory, any of the 32 parties registered with the
TSE could name a presidential candidate, as in
previous elections. However, as many parties do
not have much in the way of support or
infrastructure in every state, their results are
marginal and they have little impact on the
elections. They are referred to as the "dwarf"
parties. The most powerful of these is the far left
Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), made up of
former members of the PT. It appeals to university
students and is likely to put forward Randolfe
Rodrigues, from Amapá State, as a candidate for
Senator, although he is almost unknown to voters
nationally.
The other parties could put forward "folkloric"
candidates or candidates willing to use the free air
time on TV as a platform for future elections.
Marina Silva, Former Senator
Image Credit: development.thinkaboutit.eu/
11. 11
POLITICS IN BRAZIL
According to the latest presidential election
opinion poll of likely votors released by Ibope
Inteligencia on May 22nd, President Rousseff had
40% (up from 37% in April), Aécio 20% (up from
14%), and Campos 11% (up from 6%).
Another recent survey also discovered that around
76% of voters said they want some sort of change.
This number is strikingly close to the response to a
similar question asked in 2002, when Fernando
Henrique Cardoso (president from 1995-2002)
and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were vying for the
presidency. At that time, 72% of those interviewed
also wanted to see change, which was reflected in
the result of the election. Political scientist
Alberto Carlos Almeida, author of the books A
Cabeça do Brasileiro (Mind of the Brazilian) and A
Cabeça do Eleitor (Mind of the Voter), says Brazil is
in an atypical situation, which he refers to as
"political limbo." He also believes that the
electoral outlook is uncertain. The analyst referred
to figures from the Ibope Research Institute
released in February 2014, citing a 39% approval
rating for the president, down four percentage
points compared with December 2013. He believes
that political and economic instability may force
President Rousseff’s approval rating down even
further over the coming months.
(*Vote defined as individuals who are eligible and said
they intended to vote on election day.)
12. 12
Since the end of March, Dilma's image as an
austere and responsible administrator has come
under attack after events which took place in 2006
(when she was chairman of the board at Petrobras)
recently came to light. In 2006, Petrobras acquired
an oil refinery from Astra Oil in Pasadena, Texas
USA, with authorization from Dilma.
Petrobras paid USD 360 million (USD 190 million
for 50% of the stock and USD 170 million for oil
inventories) which was significantly more than the
USD 42.5 million Astra Oil had paid the year
before for the entire refinery. This figure rose
further as the years went by. This was due to a
grave error in not noticing a Put Option clause, with
mandatory payment for the remaining 50% of the
company if the shareholders ended up in litigation,
which is what happened in 2008.
In 2012, the US courts ruled that Petrobras should
pay Astra Oil an additional USD 820.5 million,
increasing Petrobras' total cost to USD 1.18 billion.
Since the outset, President Rousseff has always
denied knowledge of the Put Option clause, but
documents revealed by Wikileaks in April this year
revealed that the President was supplied with all
the necessary information about the contract by
the White House. Disclosure of this transaction
further undermined the President's relationship
with Congress, which now has two active
investigations exploring possible criminal activities
at Petrobras.
13. 13
A critic of the PT administration, Marco Antonio
Villa is a historian and professor at the Federal
University of São Carlos and shares his thoughts
about the current climate of uncertainty.
•
•
•
•
•
According to the professor, the political
winds were blowing in favor of
Fernando Henrique Cardoso in 1994
and 1998, particularly because of the
Real Plan to strengthen Brazil’s
currency.
2002 saw a sea change after a number
of problems arose during his second
term, especially after 2000.
Villa has noted that in the 2006
elections, Lula managed to distance
himself from the "monthly payment
scandal," known locally as the
“Mensalão,” and built the “Lulism”
brand. The professor claims that since
then, the PT has been hostage to Lula.
2010 was a euphoric year for the Lula
camp with GDP rising 7.5% (the
previous year GDP had shrunk by
0.3%).
The situation in 2014 is entirely
different and there is a real possibility
of change.
Marco Antonio Villa believes that the election will
go to a second round between President Rousseff
and Neves. He believes that Neves is likely to
attract support from Campos, but has doubts
about Marina Silva’s position on this support. If
Neves wins, Villa believes he will focus mainly on
the economy and to reduce the public deficit.
Abroad, he is likely to change Brazil's approach to
other Mercosur countries and take a less political
and ideological line. However, no analyst has risked
forecasting a victory for Campos, who has the least
probability, of the three candidates, to win.
Climate of Uncertainty Second Round 2014 Voting
14. 14
When President Rousseff was sworn into office,
she inherited the solid base built up by her
predecessor comprised of 10 parties – PT, PMDB,
PDT, PCdoB, PSB, PR, PRB, PTN, PSC and PTC –
which gave her a large majority in the House: 402
votes against just 111 for the opposition. The
Senate was in a similar situation, with a majority of
49 allied Senators out of a total 81.
In exchange for these alliances, the government
distributed a number of ministerial portfolios and
other positions to parties aligned with the PT,
regardless of their idealogy. This resulted in a
bloated structure of 24 ministries, as well as 10
secretariats and five ministerial level bodies linked
to the president's executive office. These positions
were distributed among parties ranging from the
far right to the far left, with little attention paid to
the actual political ideologies involved. The
parties in the strongest positions, the PT and the
PMDB, hold the more strategic ministries, such as
the Treasury, Justice, Executive Office, Mines and
Energy, and Social Security.
The wide range of alliances has created a more
robust and stable relationship in the legislature. It
was required to guarantee as much free air time as
possible for political broadcasts on TV and radio –
TV and radio broadcasters are forced to set aside a
certain amount of time for party political
propaganda – which begin on August 19 and
continue until a couple of days prior to the
election.
Parliamentary Base Alliances of Convenience
New Parties
Unlike other countries where the political party
system is more consolidated and hierarchical,
party political alliances in Brazil are based to a
much greater extent on regional political
convenience rather than pragmatic ideological
considerations. As such, the PMDB may work with
President Dilma on the federal elections while
joining up with an opposition party like the PSDB
for specific state elections. The Brazilian political
party system also allows politicians to switch
parties while in office, which may end up
weakening or strengthening certain groups. One
example is the conservative party Democratas
(DEM), which began the legislature with 43 federal
representatives but currently has just 26. PSDB
began 2011 with 53 representatives in Parliament
but will end 2014 with just 43.
In addition to the customary game of musical
chairs by political parties, three new parties have
been created since 2011. The most important was
the Social Democratic Party (PSD), a center-right
party set up by the former mayor of São Paulo,
Gilberto Kassab, which can be considered a perfect
example of how malleable Brazilian politics can
be. He is likely to be a candidate for the São Paulo
state governor's position (running against the PT)
while supporting Rousseff’s candidacy for
President. He is currently supported by 53
Parliamentary representatives of all political hues.
15. 15
Big Block
State Elections
Solidarity (SDD) is another new party which is
chaired by union leader and federal representative
Paulo Pereira da Silva, who was previously a
member of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), and
is represented by 22 federal representatives. The
SDD has already announced its support for Neves's
candidacy, but is not overtly opposing Rousseff’s
current administration.
The final member of this trio of new parties is the
center-right Republican Party for Social Order
(PROS), whose leaders include the governor of
Ceará state, Cid Gomes, and his brother Ciro
Gomes, a former government minister and former
presidential candidate. In the House of
Representatives, the PROS lineup alongside the
PP and they jointly command a group of 59
representatives (20 from PROS and 39 from PP).
In February, based on this patchwork of alliances,
there was a "rebellion" in the House of
Representatives. This exemplifies what happens
when government allies are unhappy or feel that
their demands are not being given due
consideration. The Brazilian Democratic
Movement Party (PMDB) was the driving force
behind an informal group of dissatisfied allies,
nicknamed the "big block," who began putting up
barriers to derail bill that the federal government
was supporting, like the Civil Rights Framework for
the Internet (which was approved after lengthy
discussions and a number of concessions), and
creating a Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry to
investigate irregularities at Petrobras.
In the media, some political analysts opined that
the PMDB would support President Rousseff,
despite the current situation, because the cost of
walking away is too high. The PMBD is likely to be a
member of the presidential election alliance but
will allow the party's state organizations to make
their own arrangements.
According to historian Marco Antonio Villa, the
situation at the state level seems easier to read in
Sao Paulo, where current governor Geraldo
Alckmin (PSDB) will probably be elected, more
because he faces weak opponents than for any
merit of his own. The same could be said of Minas
Gerais, with the possible election of former
Governor Antonio Anastasia, from the PSDB, who
stepped down in April to focus on Aécio Neves'
campaign. In Pernambuco, Campos, the former
state governor and presidential candidate, is likely
to push through his chosen successor.
However, everything is in play in Rio de Janeiro,
because the former state governor Sergio Cabral
(PMDB) has had quite a turbulent time, and the
same can be said for Bahia, the state currently run
by Jaques Wagner (PT). The current governor of
Río Grande do Sul, Tarso Genro (PT) has a real
chance of taking the elections into the second
round.
Image Credit: development.thinkaboutit.eu/
16. 16
A LOOK BACK AT PAST ELECTIONS
After a 25-year gap during the military dictatorship
and José Sarney's transitional civil government,
Brazil held its first direct presidential elections in
1989, with a second-round victory for Fernando
Collor de Mello over Lula. This concluded a
transition that began in 1982 with elections for
state governments, which also encompassed
elections for mayors of Brazil's state capitals in
1985. After Collor took office, Brazil found itself
navigating through stormy waters due to the
overall lack of economic control. Brazilians saw
their savings accounts confiscated and corruption
scandals cropped up, leading to major
demonstrations in Brazil's biggest cities. These
demonstrations were peaceful and no major
incidents were recorded. Impeachment
proceedings were initiated and President Collor
was forced to step down from office, resigning on
the eve of his trial, at which point vice-president
Itamar Franco took office.
Real Plan
With just two years left in office, President Franco
focused his efforts on containing the very high
level of inflation and in 1994, he announced the
Real Plan, adopting a new currency with a return to
parity with the dollar.
As the economy stabilized, the then Minister of the
Treasury, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, saw an
opportunity to run for the presidency alongside
conservative vice presidential candidate Marco
Maciel (DEM). The PSDB/DEM alliance won the
1994 presidential election against Lula in the first
round. The PT made a strategic error by not
supporting the Real Plan, which was supported by
a majority of Brazilians.
17. 17
Political Maneuvering
Based on the electoral legislation in place at the
time, Cardoso would have served as president for
five years. However, in a controversial
Congressional maneuver, including accusations of
"vote buying," President Cardoso changed the
rules and created the possibility of re-election for
an additional four-year term.
President Cardoso’s first administration is
remembered for stabilizing the economy and the
currency, reducing inflation, initiating privatization
and reopening the door to foreign investment,
based on a fictitious foreign-exchange parity. In
1998, President Cardoso faced Lula once again,
and won in the first round.
The following years saw some of the initial
platforms on which the Real Plan was based (like
forced foreign-exchange parity between the Real
and the US dollar) start to deteriorate and
President Cardoso begin to lose popularity.
It was at this point that the PT took advantage of
the situation to become more pragmatic and
amenable to alliances with parties which, up until
then, it had viewed as "enemies." PT leaders
offered the vice-presidency to businessman José
Alencar, a member of the center-right Liberal Party
(PL). After three attempts, Lula managed to win
the election against his opponent, Jose Serra
(PSDB). After taking power, he expanded his
political alliances, bringing on board the Brazilian
Workers’ Party (PTB).
The government lost control of part of the
economy following a speculative attack on the
Real in 1999, which significantly devalued the
currency. Interest rates rose to historically high
levels and inflation jumped from
1.78% 1998
8.94% 1999,
12.53% 2002,
in to
in hitting
in the election year.
José Serra ( PSDB)
Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)
Image Credits: wikipedia, pt.wikipedia.org/
18. 18
The Monthly Payment Scandal: "Mensalão"
In 2005, the biggest corruption scandal in Lula's
administration exploded. Known as the "monthly
payment scheme," it brought down some of the
main leaders of the PT and its allied parties. The
scandal involved buying votes from Congressmen
and misappropriating public funds as part of a
scheme that included a number of banks and
advertising agencies. Those dragged into the
scandal include people like José Dirceu, the head
of the President's executive office and a possible
successor to Lula; former PT chairman José
Genoino; congressmen Roberto Jefferson (PTB)
and Valdemar da Costa Neto (PR), both
government allies. Lula's popularity plummeted
during the initial months of the scandal, but
started to recover in the following year as the
government implemented a number of populist
policies, like Family Benefit, which distributes
income to people living in extreme poverty. As a
result, President Lula managed to win re-election
against Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), who enjoyed
significant support in São Paulo, but was
completely unknown in the north and northeast
states of the country, which is the PT's main
electoral base.
As President Lula's popularity rose, he faced a few
political difficulties during his second term and
recommended that Dilma Rousseff, previously
Minister of Mines and Energy and the President's
Executive Office, be nominated as his successor.
While the "PT monthly payments" trial progressed,
the opposition also found itself embroiled in
corruption scandals in the Federal District. This
had a massive impact on the political ambitions of
Governor José Roberto Arruda (DEM), who had
been a potential presidential candidate in 2010. At
the same time, it was reported that the "PT
monthly payments" scandal had originated at the
end of the 1990s, and involved former governor
Eduardo Azeredo (PSDB) and the same people
who stood accused of running the more recent
operations.
Although not personally connected with any of the
people involved in the monthly payment scandal,
Rousseff was criticized by those of a more
conservative ideology because of her clandestine
militancy during the dictatorship. However, as both
economic and social issues started to turn in their
favor, Rousseff and vice-presidential candidate
Michel Temer easily won the election in the second
round, beating José Serra, whose popularity was
shrinking.
José Dirceu (PT) José Genoino (PT)
Image Credits: wikipedia.com, www.forte.jor.br
19. 19
9 ELECTION ISSUES TO
UNDERSTAND AND MONITOR
As in any election, there are issues which may have a greater or lesser effect when voters go to the
polls. James Carville, the US political operative, created one of the most universal phrases on what
decides an election when he said, "It's the economy, stupid." He was right, but little did he know that
in Brazil, with all of its characteristic quirks, certain issues run even deeper.
Economic performance does not have the impact
one would expect on Brazilian elections. It is very
different from mature economies, like the USA,
where negative stock market figures, investment
banking insurer bankruptcies, high real estate
prices, lower growth and falling incomes have a
direct effect on how citizens vote. Here, a slowing
GDP (2.3% in 2013 and a forecast of 1.5% in 2014)
is more likely to affect the election if it is linked to
other events, such as a possible electricity crisis
(with blackouts), water shortages (because of the
drought and lack of investment) and rising
unemployment. The first two issues mentioned
above are on the government's emergency agenda.
Economist Ricardo Amorim, a partner at Ricam
Consultoria, says the results of the elections are
much more uncertain than opinion polls suggest,
especially if we look at specific domestic issues.
The likelihood of further protests during the World
Cup, which is being held just three months prior to
the elections, could cause the government serious
1. The Economy :
HIGH IMPACT
discomfort if the protests become violent. The
increasing risk of energy rationing – which played
in part in the downfall of then President Fernando
Henrique Cardoso in 2002 – and water rationing
will affect voters. Amorim concludes that possible
problems on the job market would also be a
contributing factor.
President Rousseff is considered an
interventionist, who deliberately gets involved in
running structural sectors of the economy oil,
energy and finance. Her approach has had a
number of repercussions for state-owned
companies in all three areas, one of which was a
spectacular drop in corporate profits at the end of
last year. Capital markets have reacted badly, with
heady speculation on the stock market. The best
example of this came on March 19 and 20, on the
eve of Ibope's most recent opinion poll. There
were rumors that President Rousseff was losing
popularity that were not confirmed until after the
Datafolha survey results were announced in April,
but suspicion was high enough to see the stock of
three major state-owned companies rise
significantly for the first time in 2014: Petrobras
was up 7.8%, Eletrobrás rose 10% and Banco do
Brasil gained 10%, in just two days. Shares in state-
owned companies are expected to be quite volatile
from now until the elections.
20. 20
This is a federal government welfare program
which distributes between 70 BRL (USD 30) and
200 BRL (USD 90) per month (depending on the
number of children) to families living in extreme
poverty. Launched in 2003, it has so far benefited
around 36 million people, principally in the north
and northeast regions of the country. Although
criticized by the opposition, not a single candidate
proposed ending the program in either the 2006 or
2010 elections because of its widespread
popularity. According to political analysts, this is
the PT's trump card. Campos and Neves are
expected to face difficulties reaching out to poorer
voters. Historian Marco Antonio Villa said that if
there is any likelihood that Neves and President
Rousseff are to face off in a second round of
voting, there may be rumors during the campaign
that the family benefit program will be eliminated,
which will consequently have repercussions among
poorer voters.
Brazil is expected to practically come to a
standstill during the World Cup and many host
cities are considering if they should declare public
holidays on the days that Brazil plays matches.
Nobody is sure how the World Cup will impact the
elections. In 2002, Brazil won the competition for
the fifth time, but this did not help boost the PSDB
presidential candidate's popularity. In 2006, Brazil
was eliminated before the semifinals, but
frustration with the loss was not reflected in the
polls.
However, the 2014 World Cup brings with it a
number of specific issues. First, it is being held in
Brazil and many people are upset about the high
cost of hosting the event, which has diverted
investment away from essential sectors such as
education, health, transport and infrastructure.
Political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida said that
if Brazil exits the tournament early, this could have
an impact on the elections, potentially leaving
behind the sensation that Brazil organized the
party, but everyone else had all the fun.
Brazil is also preparing for the 2016 Rio Olympic
Games, which is also frequently in the news for
schedule delays and cost overruns.
2. Family Benefit :
HIGH IMPACT
3. World Cup :
MID-LEVEL IMPACT
Image Credit: SPOT_MuralEventoDaPompeia
21. 21
In 2010, Lula presented Rousseff to the country
and was directly responsible for her being elected.
Two years later, he nominated Education Minister
Fernando Haddad as a candidate for the mayor of
São Paulo, and was also successful. At the end of
2011, he was diagnosed with cancer of the larynx
and was forced to cut back on his political
activities.
Although he is still popular, Lula is likely to have
less influence than in 2010. However, it is widely
acknowledged now that he still has a relatively
strong following in the electorate. According to
Datafolha's most recent survey, 37% of
interviewees said they would vote for a candidate
supported by the former president, compared with
35% who would not vote for any candidate he
supports. Despite these figures, Alberto Almeida
believes that people will vote for Rousseff in 2014
more for her personal qualities rather than any
direct association with the former president.
In June of last year, Brazil's major cities saw a
number of demonstrations directed at politicians
who were vigorously criticized, causing alarm and
debate across the country. The demonstrations
were fueled by a wide range of concerns, with
people protesting against the lack of healthcare,
transportation, education and against political
corruption. The protests took place at the same
time as FIFA’s Confederations Cup. There were
clashes with the police around the stadiums of the
six host cities, however none of the matches were
disrupted. President Rousseff was booed during
the opening game and decided to not attend the
final. The federal and state governments
reinforced policing to ensure public order and
prevent more serious consequences. There were
no serious injuries or deaths during the
demonstrations.
There is some expectation that further
demonstrations will be held during the World Cup
and they will have a greater or lesser impact on
voters depending on how widespread and popular
they are. There is a consensus that the three
months between the World Cup and the
presidential elections will be a chance to cool off
and any demonstrations that do occur are unlikely
to have a decisive impact on the vote. Additionally,
some believe that any demonstrations held during
the World Cup will not be as big as those which
occurred in June. Furthermore, there is no
"surprise factor" because the government's
intelligence services have been forewarned.
4. Lula Factor :
MEDIUM IMPACT
5. Public Demonstrations :
MEDIUM TO HIGH IMPACT
Image Credit: Will Rodrigues / Shutterstock.com
22. 22
All candidates are allowed unpaid airtime on TV
and radio for political party purposes. The amount
of exposure each party receives depends on the
number of representatives it has in Congress. This
increases the importance of political party
coalitions. In other words, the larger the coalition,
the more free airtime it will have on TV and radio
for political campaign broadcasting. This does not
necessarily guarantee a good result. In 1989, the
then PMDB candidate Ulysses Guimarães had the
most free airtime, but finished the election in sixth
place. Today, the most important factor affecting
political broadcasts is how creative can marketing
managers be in finding new ways to directly
interact with voters.
According to a recent Ibope survey, 76% of
Brazilians prefer political broadcasts on TV,
making political campaigns sophisticated
marketing tools that are now being further
reinforced by the Internet and social media. The
free broadcasts will run from August 19 until
October 2. Political analysts see these broadcasts
as the cornerstone of electoral advertising.
The arrest and incarceration of well-known people
accused of running the "monthly payments
scandal" is unlikely to have an impact, according to
political scientists. If the presidential elections had
been held in 2012, when the Mensalão trial began,
it would probably have had a different result. The
sentences handed out to the more significant of
those accused had huge repercussions in the
national media, as well as overseas. However, there
were no real effects on the municipal elections
held that year. The PT’s candidate, the ex-
education minister, Fernando Haddad, became
mayor of São Paulo, Brazil’s largest and most
populous city, after to claim the beating José Serra,
who Rousseff also beat the presidency in 2010.
After appeals were made and lost by those
condemned in the trial, prison sentences have
been in force since November 2013. Political
scientist Alberto Almeida said that as far as
Brazilians are concerned, the fact that those
involved were sent to prison belongs in the past. In
general, Brazilians think "all politicians are
thieves."
6. Free Party Political
Broadcasts : HIGH IMPACT
7. Monthly Payments
Scandal : LOW IMPACT
Image Credit: SPOT_MuralEventoDaPompeia
23. 23
Elections in many countries hinge on debates -
where political candidates buckle under the
pressure and make a mistake. During the mayoral
elections for Sao Paulo in 1985, the then candidate
Fernando Henrique Cardoso was asked if he
believed in God. He He botched the answer,
projecting an image of himself as an atheist. His
adversaries took advantage of this to alienate the
more conservative voters.
Based on data from past elections, voters do not
appear to prioritize the makeup of party coalitions.
The two main reasons are the ideological
weaknesses of the parties, more concerned about
creating arrangements that will provide them with
certain advantages, and voters' ignorance of
political rules, which means that they are more
often influenced by the candidates themselves
rather than their parties. Only the more
ideological voters are likely to complain about an
unsuitable alliance and they are too few in number
to change the result of an election.
8. Debates :
MID-LEVEL IMPACT
9. Party Alliances :
NO IMPACT
A few political journalists who moderate debates
debates have criticized the current model used for
presidential debates, which significantly restricts
the candidates. During the first round of elections,
the debates are not particularly relevant because
much weaker candidates, with little chance of
winning, are present. The very strict debating rules
make it difficult for candidates to debate their
ideas with one another. The debates may become
more important if there is a second round of
elections, however the candidates' advisors tell
them to minimize risk.
However, the debates are an excellent opportunity
to offer voters more insight into what each
candidate represents. A chronic problem for
debates is the time they are broadcast, always after
10 PM, which means that working-class people,
who are generally low-income, do not get to watch
them.
24. 24
IN SUMMARY
The political situation in Brazil is unpredictable.
It's difficult to forecast a possible winner for the
presidential election. However, there is a
consensus that regardless of who wins, there will
be no drastic changes in Brazil's international
relations.
Brazil's relationship with some South American
countries might be affected, according to a recent
article featuring Neves. These proposed changes,
which are common in the run-up to elections, are
critical of Brazil's current attitude towards
diplomacy, which is considered excessively
benevolent to governments in more left-leaning
countries. Last year, President Rousseff was
criticized by the opposition for partnering with
President Raul Castro to build a port in Cuba. Their
criticism was based more on ideological issues
than the practicality or feasibility of the
construction project itself. Despite Brazil's current
position, the country is not expected to follow the
path of Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela.
Political analysts do not believe there will be any
major changes, especially given the track record of
the three main candidates, who are not risk-takers.
A potential Neves administration is expected to
focus more on rebuilding support for the markets
and in the business community. Campos is
expected to do the same, but to a lesser degree. As
does President Rousseff, who is under criticism by
the Brazilian business community and will have to
rebuild her relationship with domestic and
international investors.
The air of uncertainty makes it difficult to predict
the results of the election at present, and however
the situation evolves by October, both the current
administration and the opposition will have a
chance to win.
This situation is reminiscent of a phrase from
Magalhães Pinto (1909-1996), a politician and
banker who ran against Tancredo Neves (Aécio's
grandfather) in Minas Gerais, when he was asked to
describe politics: "Politics is like the clouds. You
look at them and they look like one thing. Look
again and they have already changed."
25. MSLGROUP Latin America contact:
Josh Shapiro
josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com
About MSLGROUP
MSLGROUP in Latin America
MSLGROUP Brazil
MSLGROUP is Publicis Groupe’s strategic communications and engagement group, advisors in all aspects of
communications: from consumer PR to financial communications, public affairs, reputation management, crisis
communications, experiential marketing and events. We have more than 3,500 communications consultants across more
than 100 offices worldwide. In 2013, The Holmes Report recognized MSLGROUP as the “Best Corporate Consultancy in
the World.”
MSLGROUP has been active in Latin America for more than 25 years and has developed into a network of both
MSLGROUP owned operations and long-term affiliate partnerships. Today our Latin America team includes more than
150 MSLGROUP staff across four offices, plus partner offices in 20 additional countries across Central America, South
America and the Caribbean. From our regional hub based in São Paulo, Brazil, MSLGROUP Latin America supports a
variety of clients on global, regional and local communications programs.
Founded more than 20 years ago, MSLGROUP’s Brazil team has supported both national and international companies as
they entered into and developed across Brazil. Today, MSLGROUP Brazil includes three agencies that operate as distinct
businesses, while collaborating in certain areas like tools and training: MSLGROUP Andreoli, MSLGROUP Espalhe and
MSLGROUP Publicis Consultants.