1. Michel Temer of the PMDB believes President Lula has effectively distanced himself from corruption scandals while expanding social programs to gain support from lower classes. However, Lula's opponent Alckmin lacks charisma and failed to leave a mark as governor. Temer predicts the election will go to a second round.
2. Temer analyzes how Lula emerged from scandals involving his party while expanding popular social programs like Bolsa Familia.
3. The PMDB will not support a single presidential candidate but could ally after the first round, and it will win many state governorships strengthening its national power.
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
In the "Gov Affairs in Focus" column, the main topic is the information access and the government relations professional analysis. Does simple access guarantee the effective use of strategic information? Also on information, we highlight the dichotomy access/data leakage.
We do not, of course, avoid discussing the main themes in the political arena, and in this month's edition you will find another profile in the series "Presidential Candidates", this time Geraldo Alckmin. Subsequently, the implications former president Lula imprisonment to the Workers Party campaign, and the impasses and nuances of the distribution of power, or presidencies, in the thematic committees of the House of Representatives.
Finally, the international analysis discusses the China-US economic rivalry and then the importance of investing in the internationalization of companies and establishing global players.
In addition, we wish a good reading!
Analysis of the most viable candidates to the presidency of the republic of b...Fernando Alcoforado
Considerando o fato de o Brasil, como organização econômica, social e política, se encontrar em desintegração cujos sinais são evidentes em todas as partes do País e que a estagnação econômica atual tende a se agravar no Brasil com a elevação do desemprego e a redução das receitas do Estado que poderão inviabilizar sua capacidade de intervenção na economia, a eleição de um Presidente da República que não seja capaz de superar a crise atual e reativar a economia brasileira pode levar o País à convulsão social. Para evitar este cenário, é necessário eleger um Presidente da República que aumente a capacidade do governo brasileiro e das instituições políticas em geral de oferecer respostas eficazes para superação da crise política, econômica e social em que se debate a nação brasileira.
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
An Update on the Brazil Election - September 2014MSL
On 13 August, 2014 in a tragic event a private plane carrying one of the Brazilian presidential candidates crashed, killing all of those on board. As a result, a popular politician who was blocked from running for President due to missing a few signatures on her application form and instead became a VP candidate, stepped into the void as a new national Presidential candidate and has transformed the election dynamics and polls.
For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group
The putrefaction of the michel temer government and of the political institut...Fernando Alcoforado
The Datafolha Research demonstrates, above all, the putrefaction of political and juridical institutions of Brazil that can only be resolved by convening a new Constituent Assembly to carry out the political, of State and of Public Administration reform aimed at reordering the national life. Indirect elections with a demoralized National Congress as current and direct elections with a National Congress and demoralized political parties like the present ones will not solve the problems of Brazil.
In the "Gov Affairs in Focus" column, the main topic is the information access and the government relations professional analysis. Does simple access guarantee the effective use of strategic information? Also on information, we highlight the dichotomy access/data leakage.
We do not, of course, avoid discussing the main themes in the political arena, and in this month's edition you will find another profile in the series "Presidential Candidates", this time Geraldo Alckmin. Subsequently, the implications former president Lula imprisonment to the Workers Party campaign, and the impasses and nuances of the distribution of power, or presidencies, in the thematic committees of the House of Representatives.
Finally, the international analysis discusses the China-US economic rivalry and then the importance of investing in the internationalization of companies and establishing global players.
In addition, we wish a good reading!
Analysis of the most viable candidates to the presidency of the republic of b...Fernando Alcoforado
Considerando o fato de o Brasil, como organização econômica, social e política, se encontrar em desintegração cujos sinais são evidentes em todas as partes do País e que a estagnação econômica atual tende a se agravar no Brasil com a elevação do desemprego e a redução das receitas do Estado que poderão inviabilizar sua capacidade de intervenção na economia, a eleição de um Presidente da República que não seja capaz de superar a crise atual e reativar a economia brasileira pode levar o País à convulsão social. Para evitar este cenário, é necessário eleger um Presidente da República que aumente a capacidade do governo brasileiro e das instituições políticas em geral de oferecer respostas eficazes para superação da crise política, econômica e social em que se debate a nação brasileira.
Brazil’s unfinished business - A view on the presidential electionsBrunswick Group
No sooner has hosting the World Cup ended than Brazil is in the throes of a new competition: a presidential election. And it’s proving to be as full as surprises - and as unpredictable - as the tourney that saw the home favorite routed in an unprecedented 7 to 1 defeat in the semi-finals to eventual winner Germany.
http://www.brunswickgroup.com/publications/reports/
An Update on the Brazil Election - September 2014MSL
On 13 August, 2014 in a tragic event a private plane carrying one of the Brazilian presidential candidates crashed, killing all of those on board. As a result, a popular politician who was blocked from running for President due to missing a few signatures on her application form and instead became a VP candidate, stepped into the void as a new national Presidential candidate and has transformed the election dynamics and polls.
For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group
The imminent impeachment of Brazil’s President, Dilmah Rousseff and a spiraling economy are among the many challenges facing Brazil. Our experts from MSLGROUP Andreoli have co-authored a paper that looks ahead to the formation of a new Brazilian government.
Brazil turns a page - What to expect of a Temer governmentBrunswick Group
Brazil turns a page - What to expect of a Temer government
After a wrenching battle and a last-ditch attempt to derail the whole process, Brazil has removed President Dilma Rousseff and is set to install Michel Temer in her place. Now comes the hard part: getting the country back on track. Mr. Temer is facing a wave of conflicting pressures that amount to a triple challenge to him and his government.
Brunswick Partner Thomas Kamm looks at these challenges faced by a Temer government and the likely steps to expect from him and Finance Minister-designate Henrique Meirelles.
For further information please contact our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
Consummation of coup d´état executed by lula and pt with dilma rousseff conni...Fernando Alcoforado
Today, Dilma Rousseff will appoint Lula to take a ministry of her late government. In making this decision, Dilma Rousseff abdicated of power transferring it to the former president Lula who will try to save the government's economic and political debacle and himself of prison for the crimes of corruption. This is configured as a coup d´état or self-coup d´état perpetrated by Lula and PT with the connivance of her own Dilma Rousseff that turned into a kind of "Queen of England" that continues to reign but not rule. Who will govern effectively will be Lula. This is a coup d´état without similar or unprecedented in the history of Brazil and of any country in the world because it has the connivance of his own holds of coup d´état the power.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
Coup d´état or self coup d´état in execution process in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is taking place in Brasilia, an attempted of coup d´état of self-coup d´état being committed by Lula and PT to avoid the debacle of the Dilma Rousseff government and also to avoid arrest of Lula by Lava Jato Operation. By occupying a ministry with the connivance of Dilma Rousseff, Lula assumes in fact the Presidency of Republic transforming the current president in a kind of "Queen of England" who reigns but does not govern. Who will govern effectively will be Lula. The coup d´état assigned by PT and allies to their opponents that want the removal of Dilma Rousseff and PT of power is being implemented by PT itself and Lula with the connivance of Dilma Rousseff. It is no similar coup d´état or unprecedented in the history of Brazil and of any country in the world because it has the connivance of the own holds the power.
Coups d´état are characteristic of times when political opposition groups extrapolate the legality and sometimes make use of violence to overthrow a legitimate government. Coup d´état is therefore attempting to political forces to illegally overthrow a constitutionally legitimate government. Coup d´état has this name because it is characterized by an institutional break, contrary to normal law and order and subjecting state control to people who had not been legally designated either by election, inheritance or other transition. In the most common type of coups d´état, the rebellious forces surround or hijack the seat of government, often driving, holding or even executing members of the deposed government. Taking into account the concept described above of coup d´état, it can be said that the impeachment of Rousseff cannot be characterized as such. Even the ministers and former ministers of STF- Supreme Court did not consider the impeachment as a coup d´état as they seek to characterize Dilma Rousseff, PT (Workers Party) and its allies.
On Strawberries and Grapes - An Update on the Political Situation in BrazilMSL
Everything is possible in Brazil. Despite her actions and amazing tendency to blunder, even Dilma Rousseff can hang on to power after leaving the Brazilian economy in tatters after just a few years.
With inflation in double-digit territory, unemployment rising to around 12% by the start of 2016 and a government deficit in the region of US$ 35 billion, Dilma’s administration will come crumbling down in the first half of next year. At least, it’s a pretty good bet.
Paulo Andreoli, Chairman MSLGROUP Latin America shares a perspective on the current political scenario in Brazil.
We hope you enjoy reading it and invite you to share your feedback and tips with us on Twitter @msl_group.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Thanks to the political irresponsibility of the PT and its allies in defending the corrupt Lula are contributing to the ascent of the egg of the fascist serpent in Brazil. By acting in this way, the PT and its allies lack the necessary intelligence to realize that the correlation of forces is entirely unfavorable to their pretensions. Insisting on the confrontation with the great majority of Brazilian society means plunging the Country into civil war whose consequences are unpredictable. In addition to having allied themselves with right-wing parties and politicians to govern, the PT and its allies are now contributing to the rise of the extreme right to power either in the 2018 presidential election or through a coup d'état if political radicalization reaches uncontrollable levels.
THE SCENARIOS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL.pdfFaga1939
This article aims to outline scenarios for Brazil's presidential elections in 2022. In the race for the Presidency of the Republic, Lula and Bolsonaro have the preference of the electorate, followed by Ciro Gomes with a wide difference. By considering Lula and Bolsonaro as their preferred candidates, the Brazilian people are not realizing that both have neoliberal economic programs which, in Bolsonaro's case, is radically ultra-neoliberal, while in Lula's case it incorporates developmentalist and humanist elements. Ciro Gomes, in turn, who presents the best economic program for Brazil because it is a national developmentalist, will hardly surpass Lula or Bolsonaro in the 1st round of the presidential elections. One scenario assumes that the elections will take place without incident and the winner will assume power from 2023 and the alternative scenario is that there will be no elections thanks to the coup of state to be perpetrated by Bolsonaro before and during the elections. This means that Brazil may have two alternative futures: 1) Neoliberalism with humanist social policies and democracy with Lula in power if he is victorious in the elections if they are held; and, 2) Ultra-neoliberalism with social tightening and dictatorship with Bolsonaro in power if he succeeds in preventing the holding of elections.
This month's publication addresses the military intervention in Rio de Janeiro, the creation of the Ministry of Security, the migratory crisis in Roraima, the new prospects for campaign financing (theme expensive for 2018, no pun intended), as well as a contribution on the international political scene, the South African situation.
While Brazil has been in the Olympic spotlight, an important political drama has been also playing out. MSLGROUP’s latest thought leadership assesses the first 100 days in office of Brazil’s interim President Michel Temer and offers a perspective on the future.
Temer is expected to be confirmed in office within two weeks, after Brazil’s senate approves the impeachment of suspended President Dilma Rousseff (two-thirds of the Senate has already declared their plans to vote for the impeachment).
The article is written by Paulo Andreoli (Chairman MSLGROUP Latin America) and Claudia Mancini (Publicis Consultants and MSLGROUP ANDREOLI).
Brazilis New DirectionWendy HunterJournal of Democracy.docxAASTHA76
Brazilis New Direction
Wendy Hunter
Journal of Democracy, Volume 14, Number 2, April 2003, pp. 151-162
(Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2003.0034
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Florida International University (24 Feb 2014 10:41 GMT)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
BRAZIL’S NEW DIRECTION
Wendy Hunter
On 27 October 2002, the voters of Brazil chose Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) to be their next president, giving him
a wide margin of victory with 61.3 percent in a two-candidate runoff
against José Serra of the Social Democratic Party (PDSB). Does the
election—on his fourth try—of this lathe operator turned trade union
leader and the ascendance of his leftist party signal a historic shift in
Brazilian politics? What are the implications of a Lula presidency for
democracy in Brazil, and what is the larger situation of that democracy
now?
Should 2002 be seen as marking a new era in Brazilian politics? Is it
the start of a period in which a programmatic leftist party that has cham-
pioned popular participation, accountability, and redistributive change
supplants the political clientelism, social elitism, and technocratic policy
making for which Brazil is known? Or is it wiser to focus on the prag-
matic adjustments that the PT has made, the continuing sway of
conservative forces, and the multitude of constraints—political and eco-
nomic, domestic and international—that will hem in efforts to make
major changes?
On the one hand, the election of a candidate who is a true outsider is
a dramatic break with the pattern of Brazilian politics since the
postauthoritarian period began in 1985. President José Sarney (1985–
90), who inaugurated the civilian regime, had been a leading member of
the official government party under the military regime that ruled from
1964 to 1985. His successor, the disgraced Fernando Collor de Mello
(1990–92), had similar political origins. After serving as an opposition
Wendy Hunter is associate professor of government at the University
of Texas–Austin. Her current research investigates the effects of
democratization, economic globalization, and international diffusion
on decisions that affect social policy and human capital formation in
Latin America.
Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 2 April 2003
Latin America’s Lost Illusions
Journal of Democracy152
Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) senator during the military
period, Fernando Henrique Cardoso played a leading role in brokering
Brazil’s transition to democracy, forging an array of compromises with
outgoing actors and solidifying his establishment credentials, albeit as
a moderate social democrat affiliated initially with the PMDB and then
the PDSB.
Sarney, Collor, and Cardoso all came from elite backgrounds in a
soci ...
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
With the arrival of the PT to the federal government, with Lula and then with Dilma Rousseff, the past twelve years, Machiavellianism was elevated to the extreme with the rigging of the Brazilian government, whose ministries and public enterprises were taken by assault which came to be allotted to the parties that support the government. Each party receives a share of the administration, including ministries, state enterprises and other public bodies, which are to be managed as if they were properties of these parties and their bosses and can freely appoint his nominees, regardless of whether they have technical, ethical or moral qualifications well to manage public affairs. It should be noted that this practice was not started by the governments of the PT, but was "improved" in the past 12 years overwhelmingly as evidenced in the process of "mensalão" which investigated the buying of votes of legislators in Congress and in Operation “Lava Jato” of Federal Police that is investigating the assault carried out against Petrobras.
Numerous scandals occurred during the eight years of the Lula government and the four years of Dilma Rousseff government, when several ministers and members of the second tier were accused of corruption and eventually left their positions, which were passed on to other indicated by the same parties and the spree with public money continued with impunity. The greatest symbol of corruption during the Lula government was the "mensalão", which first took some important policy to prison, though with extremely soft feathers, compared to those received by operators without parliamentary mandate, as Marcos Valerio. With the termination of the purchase of the Pasadena refinery in the United States by Petrobras, which resulted in a loss of more than one billion dollars, the largest business deal coming to the public, it was thought that the matter was finished. Another complaint came to public as the overpricing of the construction of the Abreu e Lima refinery in Pernambuco. To complete the ethical and moral collapse of PT governments, the Brazilian people became aware that we are facing the biggest scandal and robbery ever recorded in the history of Brazil, since the proclamation of the Republic, with the arrests of Youssef money changer and Petrobras's former director, Paulo Roberto Costa. Petrobras had been victimized at R$ 88 billion by the collusion of the PT and allied parties, contractors and oil executives.
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
The imminent impeachment of Brazil’s President, Dilmah Rousseff and a spiraling economy are among the many challenges facing Brazil. Our experts from MSLGROUP Andreoli have co-authored a paper that looks ahead to the formation of a new Brazilian government.
Brazil turns a page - What to expect of a Temer governmentBrunswick Group
Brazil turns a page - What to expect of a Temer government
After a wrenching battle and a last-ditch attempt to derail the whole process, Brazil has removed President Dilma Rousseff and is set to install Michel Temer in her place. Now comes the hard part: getting the country back on track. Mr. Temer is facing a wave of conflicting pressures that amount to a triple challenge to him and his government.
Brunswick Partner Thomas Kamm looks at these challenges faced by a Temer government and the likely steps to expect from him and Finance Minister-designate Henrique Meirelles.
For further information please contact our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
Consummation of coup d´état executed by lula and pt with dilma rousseff conni...Fernando Alcoforado
Today, Dilma Rousseff will appoint Lula to take a ministry of her late government. In making this decision, Dilma Rousseff abdicated of power transferring it to the former president Lula who will try to save the government's economic and political debacle and himself of prison for the crimes of corruption. This is configured as a coup d´état or self-coup d´état perpetrated by Lula and PT with the connivance of her own Dilma Rousseff that turned into a kind of "Queen of England" that continues to reign but not rule. Who will govern effectively will be Lula. This is a coup d´état without similar or unprecedented in the history of Brazil and of any country in the world because it has the connivance of his own holds of coup d´état the power.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
Coup d´état or self coup d´état in execution process in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is taking place in Brasilia, an attempted of coup d´état of self-coup d´état being committed by Lula and PT to avoid the debacle of the Dilma Rousseff government and also to avoid arrest of Lula by Lava Jato Operation. By occupying a ministry with the connivance of Dilma Rousseff, Lula assumes in fact the Presidency of Republic transforming the current president in a kind of "Queen of England" who reigns but does not govern. Who will govern effectively will be Lula. The coup d´état assigned by PT and allies to their opponents that want the removal of Dilma Rousseff and PT of power is being implemented by PT itself and Lula with the connivance of Dilma Rousseff. It is no similar coup d´état or unprecedented in the history of Brazil and of any country in the world because it has the connivance of the own holds the power.
Coups d´état are characteristic of times when political opposition groups extrapolate the legality and sometimes make use of violence to overthrow a legitimate government. Coup d´état is therefore attempting to political forces to illegally overthrow a constitutionally legitimate government. Coup d´état has this name because it is characterized by an institutional break, contrary to normal law and order and subjecting state control to people who had not been legally designated either by election, inheritance or other transition. In the most common type of coups d´état, the rebellious forces surround or hijack the seat of government, often driving, holding or even executing members of the deposed government. Taking into account the concept described above of coup d´état, it can be said that the impeachment of Rousseff cannot be characterized as such. Even the ministers and former ministers of STF- Supreme Court did not consider the impeachment as a coup d´état as they seek to characterize Dilma Rousseff, PT (Workers Party) and its allies.
On Strawberries and Grapes - An Update on the Political Situation in BrazilMSL
Everything is possible in Brazil. Despite her actions and amazing tendency to blunder, even Dilma Rousseff can hang on to power after leaving the Brazilian economy in tatters after just a few years.
With inflation in double-digit territory, unemployment rising to around 12% by the start of 2016 and a government deficit in the region of US$ 35 billion, Dilma’s administration will come crumbling down in the first half of next year. At least, it’s a pretty good bet.
Paulo Andreoli, Chairman MSLGROUP Latin America shares a perspective on the current political scenario in Brazil.
We hope you enjoy reading it and invite you to share your feedback and tips with us on Twitter @msl_group.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Thanks to the political irresponsibility of the PT and its allies in defending the corrupt Lula are contributing to the ascent of the egg of the fascist serpent in Brazil. By acting in this way, the PT and its allies lack the necessary intelligence to realize that the correlation of forces is entirely unfavorable to their pretensions. Insisting on the confrontation with the great majority of Brazilian society means plunging the Country into civil war whose consequences are unpredictable. In addition to having allied themselves with right-wing parties and politicians to govern, the PT and its allies are now contributing to the rise of the extreme right to power either in the 2018 presidential election or through a coup d'état if political radicalization reaches uncontrollable levels.
THE SCENARIOS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL.pdfFaga1939
This article aims to outline scenarios for Brazil's presidential elections in 2022. In the race for the Presidency of the Republic, Lula and Bolsonaro have the preference of the electorate, followed by Ciro Gomes with a wide difference. By considering Lula and Bolsonaro as their preferred candidates, the Brazilian people are not realizing that both have neoliberal economic programs which, in Bolsonaro's case, is radically ultra-neoliberal, while in Lula's case it incorporates developmentalist and humanist elements. Ciro Gomes, in turn, who presents the best economic program for Brazil because it is a national developmentalist, will hardly surpass Lula or Bolsonaro in the 1st round of the presidential elections. One scenario assumes that the elections will take place without incident and the winner will assume power from 2023 and the alternative scenario is that there will be no elections thanks to the coup of state to be perpetrated by Bolsonaro before and during the elections. This means that Brazil may have two alternative futures: 1) Neoliberalism with humanist social policies and democracy with Lula in power if he is victorious in the elections if they are held; and, 2) Ultra-neoliberalism with social tightening and dictatorship with Bolsonaro in power if he succeeds in preventing the holding of elections.
This month's publication addresses the military intervention in Rio de Janeiro, the creation of the Ministry of Security, the migratory crisis in Roraima, the new prospects for campaign financing (theme expensive for 2018, no pun intended), as well as a contribution on the international political scene, the South African situation.
While Brazil has been in the Olympic spotlight, an important political drama has been also playing out. MSLGROUP’s latest thought leadership assesses the first 100 days in office of Brazil’s interim President Michel Temer and offers a perspective on the future.
Temer is expected to be confirmed in office within two weeks, after Brazil’s senate approves the impeachment of suspended President Dilma Rousseff (two-thirds of the Senate has already declared their plans to vote for the impeachment).
The article is written by Paulo Andreoli (Chairman MSLGROUP Latin America) and Claudia Mancini (Publicis Consultants and MSLGROUP ANDREOLI).
Brazilis New DirectionWendy HunterJournal of Democracy.docxAASTHA76
Brazilis New Direction
Wendy Hunter
Journal of Democracy, Volume 14, Number 2, April 2003, pp. 151-162
(Article)
Published by The Johns Hopkins University Press
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2003.0034
For additional information about this article
Access provided by Florida International University (24 Feb 2014 10:41 GMT)
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/jod/summary/v014/14.2hunter.html
BRAZIL’S NEW DIRECTION
Wendy Hunter
On 27 October 2002, the voters of Brazil chose Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) to be their next president, giving him
a wide margin of victory with 61.3 percent in a two-candidate runoff
against José Serra of the Social Democratic Party (PDSB). Does the
election—on his fourth try—of this lathe operator turned trade union
leader and the ascendance of his leftist party signal a historic shift in
Brazilian politics? What are the implications of a Lula presidency for
democracy in Brazil, and what is the larger situation of that democracy
now?
Should 2002 be seen as marking a new era in Brazilian politics? Is it
the start of a period in which a programmatic leftist party that has cham-
pioned popular participation, accountability, and redistributive change
supplants the political clientelism, social elitism, and technocratic policy
making for which Brazil is known? Or is it wiser to focus on the prag-
matic adjustments that the PT has made, the continuing sway of
conservative forces, and the multitude of constraints—political and eco-
nomic, domestic and international—that will hem in efforts to make
major changes?
On the one hand, the election of a candidate who is a true outsider is
a dramatic break with the pattern of Brazilian politics since the
postauthoritarian period began in 1985. President José Sarney (1985–
90), who inaugurated the civilian regime, had been a leading member of
the official government party under the military regime that ruled from
1964 to 1985. His successor, the disgraced Fernando Collor de Mello
(1990–92), had similar political origins. After serving as an opposition
Wendy Hunter is associate professor of government at the University
of Texas–Austin. Her current research investigates the effects of
democratization, economic globalization, and international diffusion
on decisions that affect social policy and human capital formation in
Latin America.
Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 2 April 2003
Latin America’s Lost Illusions
Journal of Democracy152
Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) senator during the military
period, Fernando Henrique Cardoso played a leading role in brokering
Brazil’s transition to democracy, forging an array of compromises with
outgoing actors and solidifying his establishment credentials, albeit as
a moderate social democrat affiliated initially with the PMDB and then
the PDSB.
Sarney, Collor, and Cardoso all came from elite backgrounds in a
soci ...
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
With the arrival of the PT to the federal government, with Lula and then with Dilma Rousseff, the past twelve years, Machiavellianism was elevated to the extreme with the rigging of the Brazilian government, whose ministries and public enterprises were taken by assault which came to be allotted to the parties that support the government. Each party receives a share of the administration, including ministries, state enterprises and other public bodies, which are to be managed as if they were properties of these parties and their bosses and can freely appoint his nominees, regardless of whether they have technical, ethical or moral qualifications well to manage public affairs. It should be noted that this practice was not started by the governments of the PT, but was "improved" in the past 12 years overwhelmingly as evidenced in the process of "mensalão" which investigated the buying of votes of legislators in Congress and in Operation “Lava Jato” of Federal Police that is investigating the assault carried out against Petrobras.
Numerous scandals occurred during the eight years of the Lula government and the four years of Dilma Rousseff government, when several ministers and members of the second tier were accused of corruption and eventually left their positions, which were passed on to other indicated by the same parties and the spree with public money continued with impunity. The greatest symbol of corruption during the Lula government was the "mensalão", which first took some important policy to prison, though with extremely soft feathers, compared to those received by operators without parliamentary mandate, as Marcos Valerio. With the termination of the purchase of the Pasadena refinery in the United States by Petrobras, which resulted in a loss of more than one billion dollars, the largest business deal coming to the public, it was thought that the matter was finished. Another complaint came to public as the overpricing of the construction of the Abreu e Lima refinery in Pernambuco. To complete the ethical and moral collapse of PT governments, the Brazilian people became aware that we are facing the biggest scandal and robbery ever recorded in the history of Brazil, since the proclamation of the Republic, with the arrests of Youssef money changer and Petrobras's former director, Paulo Roberto Costa. Petrobras had been victimized at R$ 88 billion by the collusion of the PT and allied parties, contractors and oil executives.
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
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हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
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1. http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO689_a.html
(C) SAO PAULO 623; (D) BRASILIA 1136;
(E) SAO PAULO 573 AND PREVIOUS; (F) SAO PAULO 30
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY
-------
SUMMARY
-------
1. (SBU) Michel Temer, President of the Brazilian Democratic
Movement Party (PMDB), believes President Lula has done a masterful
job of disassociating himself from the political corruption scandals
that have crushed some of his closest advisers. He also has
effectively expanded social programs to earn the loyalty and support
of Brazil's lower-middle and lower classes. At the same time,
Lula's opponent, Sao Paulo ex-Governor Geraldo Alckmin, suffers from
a lack of charisma and a failure to have left a visible mark in five
years at the helm of Brazil's largest state. Nevertheless, Temer
declines to predict what will happen in this race, except to say it
will go to a second round, in which "anything can happen." He
confirmed that his own party will not run a candidate for president
and will not ally with either Lula's Workers Party (PT) or the
opposition Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), at least not
before the second round. However, the PMDB will win the governors'
races in at least ten and possibly as many as fifteen states, and
will again have the largest bloc in both the Senate and the Chamber
of Deputies, so that "whoever wins the presidential election will
have to come to us to get anything done." END SUMMARY.
----------------------
LULA'S SLEIGHT OF HAND
----------------------
2. (SBU) In a June 19 meeting with Consul General (CG) and Poloff,
Michel Temer, Federal Deputy from Sao Paulo, offered his assessment
of the balance of forces for the presidential election. Though
anything can still happen -- he has seen candidates overcome much
greater disadvantages than Alckmin currently faces, and win -- it is
clear that President Lula is in a strong position. Temer
dispassionately analyzed how Lula had seen his Chief of Staff and
the entire leadership of his party disgraced, and prominent
Congressional members of his party dragged through scandal, and had
emerged personally more or less untouched. This was partly because
other political parties -- Temer mentioned the PSDB and the Liberal
Front Party (PFL) but not his own PMDB, though his comment could
just as easily apply to them -- had, at different times, been
involved in affairs akin to the PT's infamous "mensalao" bribery
scheme, and were thus not eager to expose the PT's misdeeds to the
fullest.
3. (U) It was also because Lula had such a strong bond with the
people, the so-called C, D, and E classes - i.e., the lower-middle
and lower classes. Many in these strata, in Temer's view, believe
2. http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO689_a.html
that Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC) had robbed the poor and given
to the rich, while Lula robs the rich and gives to the poor. Lula
has expanded the "Bolsa Familia" program from 6.5 million families
in 2004 to 8.7 million in 2005 to 11 million families this year, or
(assuming two children per family) roughly 44 million Brazilians.
This, combined with the increase in the minimum wage, the rise of
the Real against the US dollar, and the fall in the price of certain
basic food staples, make the poor much better off. Paradoxically,
many of the rich, especially bankers and other major financial
players, have also benefited from Lula's policies.
4. (SBU) It is the middle class that has suffered from both an
increasing tax burden and the loss of professional-level jobs. In
SAO PAULO 00000689 002 OF 004
truth, Temer continued, it is difficult to be optimistic about
Brazil's economic future. The fact of 11 million families eligible
for Bolsa Familia handouts implies a minimum of 44 million people in
abject misery in Brazil. He described a recent event he had
attended sponsored by the Institute for Industrial Development
Studies (IEDI), where Minister of Development, Commerce, and
Industry Luiz Fernando Furlan delivered an upbeat speech. When
challenged by a member of the audience with a few hard questions and
statistics, Furlan, who has himself been at times a tough critic of
the GoB's economic policies, was at pains to respond. Brazil faces
serious challenges in fostering growth, stimulating productivity,
attracting investment, improving infrastructure, and reducing
inequality; however, Lula's sleight of hand has made many voters all
but unaware of these growing problems.
--------------------------
ALCKMIN'S LACK OF CHARISMA
--------------------------
5. (SBU) Meanwhile, Alckmin is simply stuck. Temer believes that
since inheriting the governorship from Mario Covas in 2001, Alckmin
has provided honest, decent, competent government to Sao Paulo.
However, in a country that relishes superlatives, he did not
champion any great works, and his accomplishments are not visible.
Alckmin is not personally aggressive or charismatic and is not given
to showmanship, so he didn't leave a distinctive mark on the state.
By way of comparison, Orestes Quercia (ref C), Governor of Sao Paulo
from 1987 to 1990, was a controversial (many say corrupt) figure,
but he definitely left his mark on the state in the many streets and
highways and prisons and hospitals he built. (COMMENT: The same
might be said of colorful, and reportedly equally corrupt, former
Mayor and Governor Paulo Maluf. END COMMENT.) Former President
Cardoso was another example of a politician who had charisma. But
let's wait and see what happens, Temer suggested. Wait until after
the World Cup, which could impact on the voters in a variety of
different and not easily predictable ways, depending on the result.
Wait until the government-subsidized television advertising begins.
It will be "a great war" on the airwaves, and it opens up
3. http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO689_a.html
innumerable possibilities for the underdog.
6. (U) Temer, a former Sao Paulo state Secretary for Public
Security, was not certain whether Alckmin would suffer as a result
of the recent violence on the streets and in the prisons of Sao
Paulo (ref E) perpetrated by the criminal gang First Capital Command
(PCC). Some of his public criticism of his successor, Governor
Claudio Lembo, had been unfortunate and not good for his image. But
only time will tell how this situation plays out.
------------------------
LULA'S TURN TO THE LEFT?
------------------------
7. (SBU) CG asked what a second Lula term would look like, assuming
he is re-elected. Unlike some of our interlocutors, Temer believes
Lula may take a more radical (i.e., populist) approach during a
second term. The recent incident in which radicals from the
Movement for the Liberation of the Landless (MLST) stormed the
Chamber of Deputies (ref D) and committed acts of vandalism was a
harbinger of things to come. The group's leader, a member of the
PT's Executive Committee, had on many occasions over the years been
seen at Lula's side. The PT had suspended him, but had taken no
further action and did not appear particularly upset over the
episode, Temer noted.
8. (SBU) Lula, in Temer's view, was a trade unionist who had done
well for himself, who, once re-elected, might finally begin to heed
his friends on the left. Very possibly he would let himself be led
SAO PAULO 00000689 003 OF 004
away from the orthodox macro-economic policies that have dominated
his first term. (COMMENT: Some other observers have also pointed to
the GOB's expansion of social spending in recent months as an
indication that Lula is drifting left. Thus far, however, this
spending seems in line with the pump-priming measures of most
incumbents seeking re-election. While Temer sees Lula's campaign
pitting "rich versus poor" as a sign of things to come in a second
term, many analysts who have followed Lula's career characterize him
as a "cultural conservative" who is unlikely to succumb to the
radical leftist/populist temptation. A more worrisome, and more
likely, scenario is a second-term Lula government that lacks the
policy direction, political will, and working majority in Congress
required to push through essential economic and political reforms.
END COMMENT.)
------------------------------
PMDB - A HOUSE (STILL) DIVIDED
------------------------------
9. (SBU) Turning to his own party's fortunes, Temer confirmed
reports that the PMDB will not run its own candidate for President,
and will not enter into a formal alliance with either the PSDB or
4. http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO689_a.html
the PT. Any of these options at the national level, he explained,
would damage the party's chances in some of the states because the
"verticalization" rule remains in effect during the 2006 elections.
The recent ruling by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which
would have tightened even further the rules governing party
alliances (ref B), was probably correct, Temer averred, even though
it would have been disastrous for the PMDB. If you're going to
require parties to replicate their national alliances at the state
level, it makes perfect sense to go a step further and say that
parties that don't run or formally support presidential candidates
may not ally at the state level with parties that do. Nevertheless,
as the head of a party whose lifeblood is coalition-building at the
state level, Temer was relieved when the TSE reversed itself within
48 hours, and he looked forward to the 2010 elections when the
Constitutional amendment abolishing the "verticalization" rule
altogether would enter into force.
10. (SBU) If the presidential election goes into a second round, as
Temer is sure it will, the PMDB may at that point throw its support
to one side or the other. The PMDB remains split almost evenly
between the pro- and anti-Lula groups. The former seeks alliances
with the PT and hopes for several Ministries in Lula's second
administration. Temer, who is anti-Lula, was highly critical of the
pro-Lula faction and commented wryly over some of the party's
internal contradictions and divisions. Renan Calheiros, President
of the Senate, is the leader of the PMDB's pro-Lula faction; yet, in
his home state of Alagoas (northeast), the PMDB will support the
PSDB's gubernatorial candidate, Senator Teotonio Vilela. Another
pro-Lula leader is Senator (and former President) Jose Sarney, but
his daughter, PFL Senator Roseana Sarney, will be running for
Governor of Maranhao (also in the northeast) with PMDB support
against a PT candidate. Temer outlined the situation state by
state, ending with Sao Paulo. The PSDB, he noted, badly wants an
alliance with the PMDB, but they want to choose the PMDB candidate
to be Jose Serra's running mate. This issue will be resolved within
the week, since the PMDB holds its state convention on June 24. The
party will not hold a national convention June 29 as originally
planned, since all its issues at the national level were resolved at
a preliminary June 11 caucus.
11. (SBU) Temer, who himself had strongly favored fielding a PMDB
presidential candidate (ref F), noted that by relinquishing this
ambition, the PMDB stands to win the governors' races in ten or
perhaps even fifteen states, and will again have the largest blocs
in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. Thus, whichever
SAO PAULO 00000689 004 OF 004
party wins the Presidency will inevitably have to seek an alliance
with the PMDB in order to govern. Temer spoke caustically of the
Lula administration's miserly rewards for its allies in the PMDB.
They give the job of Minister to a PMDB loyalist, but no real
control over the Ministry; thus, he can't accomplish anything. In
contrast, Temer believes that in return for joining a governing
5. http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/06SAOPAULO689_a.html
alliance, the party should be given control over a sector of the
economy, agriculture, say, or health, and full responsibility for
operating that sector, and should receive full credit or blame for
the successes and failures in that sector. (COMMENT: Left unsaid,
of course, is that the sort of control Temer envisions would also
give the PMDB, and other allied parties, the opportunity to advance
their political patronage goals at the taxpayers' expense. The
PMDB, which is Brazil's largest political party, is already
well-known as a vehicle for patronage. END COMMENT.)
-------
COMMENT
-------
12. (SBU) Temer was more charitable in his assessment of Alckmin's
campaign and his performance as Governor than Alckmin's own PSDB
colleague, Andrea Matarazzo (ref A). Nevertheless, Temer's critique
hits home: Alckmin may perform in the coming months, but so far he
simply has not connected at any level with the electorate. Lula's
job performance, on the other hand, may be open to question, but his
ability to communicate with and relate to the average Brazilian is
unsurpassed. Temer is correct that whichever candidate wins will
need to turn to the PMDB for support in governing. The real problem
is that the PMDB has no ideology or policy framework that it could
bring to the task of formulating and implementing a coherent
national political agenda. Despite the party's illustrious history
as the guiding force that led Brazil from military dictatorship to
democracy, the PMDB, which now holds the balance of political power,
has devolved into a loose coalition of opportunistic regional
"caciques" who for the most part - and there are exceptions - seek
political power for its own sake. Such a party is hardly suited to
the task of providing political direction, which would be
particularly important in a post-election alliance with Lula's
rudderless PT. END COMMENT.
13. (U) This cable was coordinated/cleared with Embassy Brasilia.
MCMULLEN
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