Presentation slides: Life and Commerce in a Post COVID-19 Era by Edward M. Erasmus, MA. University of Aruba

1. Aruba Post-Corona: The New Normal
Series of Zoom Presentations followed by Q&A
Hosted by the
Center for Lifelong Learning
University of Aruba
May 26, 2020

2. Please….
• Mute microphone
• Questions via Q&A
• Use speaker view
• Have patience with internet

3. Life and Commerce in
a Post COVID-19 Era
E.M. Erasmus, BA, MA
May 2020
ARUBA POST-CORONA
THE NEW NORMAL

4. Presenter: Edward Erasmus
• Part-Time Lecturer at the UA (Faculty of Accounting, Finance
& Marketing and Faculty of Arts and Science in the OGM
program)
• Head of Operations of Freezone Aruba
• Successfully runs his own consulting and training business
(http://www.erasmusbpas.com)

5. Before We Start….

6. Outline
• Economic damage caused by COVID-19
• Context of the “New Normal”
• A Glimpse into the New Normal
• Doughnut Economics
• 5 Operational “P’s”

7. COVID-19 (the novel coronavirus):
• Not only considered a health crisis of immense
proportion;
• But it is also an imminent restructuring of the
global economic order.

8. Global economic
impact (Q1 GDP)

9. Aruba: economic
impact
• GDP drop by 44.4%
• From projected surplus 46 million
to deficit 1.3 billion
• Financing needs: 1.6 billion
• Debt-to-GDP: 104%
Source: Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and Culture

10. Aruba enterprises:
a significant
deterioration in
market outlook

11. ACCORDING TO OECD, THE CORONAVIRUS IS NOW THE
“HIGHEST THREAT TO THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY SINCE THE FINANCIAL
CRISIS OF 2007-08”

12. Pandemics
and Economic
Uncertainty
Uncertainty = unquantified risk
Source:
Marc Rzepczynski (Feb 2020)

13. The virus will gradually “die out” and completely disappear after the
summer.
The virus will fade out and resurge, creating seasonal waves of
infections.
The virus will not “die out” but will stay around, however due to
enforced PD and other strict health measures the number of infections
will be maintained at acceptable norms.
(HOW) WILL IT END? Three scenarios…

14. (HOW) WILL IT END? Three scenarios…

15. Many ask the key questions
• “When will it all be over? When can we go
back to normal?”
• Fact is…that when the pandemic is over,
we WILL PROBABLY HAVE to prepare to go to
another type of “NORMAL”.

16. PHYSICAL
DISTANCING
Maintaining physical
distance in the
workplace
TRANSACTIONS
WITH LIMITED
CONTACT
Pickup and delivery as
means for product
distribution
STRICT BORDER
CONTROLS
Strict conditions for
international travel
REMOTE
WORK
Doing office and
administrative work
from home
HEALTH AND
SANITATION
PROTOCOLS
Heightened in-store
health standards and
procedures
THE CONTEXT OF THE ‘NEW NORMAL’…
Same things we are experiencing right now, will remain in effect way after the pandemic is over…

17. • Economic and political pressure will lead to
worldwide reopening…
• With limited and/or conflicting knowledge
on how things will turn out…

18. “reopening” on two levels:
1. restoring business operations
2. opening borders for inbound flights
Going into the “New Normal”…

19. Going into the “New Normal”…
• 1980’s: The HIV/AIDS pandemic
• 2001: 9/11 terrorist attacks
• 2008: U.S. Financial crisis
COVID-19 requires massive adaptation
on macro, meso and micro levels
Have we been through ‘adjusted’ normals before?

20. A Glimpse
Into The
New Normal

21. • Content is based on my own personal views.
• Derived from measures we are currently experiencing
already.
• International trends and operational best practices.
• Speculative in nature.
• Not pretending to present solutions.
Disclaimer

22. • Traveling: Thermal-imaging cameras and rapid COVID-19
tests
• Corporate travel: only when highly necessary
• Certificate of immunity
• Restricted type of tourism
• Regulated use of hotel property
Traveling & Tourism in the Post-Pandemic Era

23. • Working from home will be the new normal.
• Huge impact on company culture, leadership, ICT technology and
teamwork.
• Lawyers, consultants, accountants and other service professionals
will probably have to get used to the fact that they will have to
continue operations through remote means that do not require
workers, customers, or the public to enter or appear at the brick-
and-mortar premises.
• New technologies will enable a boost in digital servicing procedures
in public services as well.
Remote Work and Servicing

24. • Physical access to schools will most likely remain limited to
avoid agglomeration.
• Schools will probably schedule small group school attendance
for certain hours per week.
• Digital conferencing tools and learning platforms will continue
to dominate as means to deliver distance education.
• Teachers and lecturers will have to quickly learn to develop
quality teaching materials (videos & audio) to keep students
engaged.
Rethinking Education and Learning

25. • Coronavirus: huge threat to entertainment industry
(music, events, theme parks, theatres, etc.)
• Innovation is key (product/service, process & paradigm)
• Brick and mortar retailers must focus on new customer
experience
• Distribution: delivery and pick-up
Innovation in Retail and Entertainment-Related
Industries

27. Paradigm Innovation…

28. Reinventing
Business Models
• DIY product kits
• Enhanced virtual experience
• eCommerce, effective content
marketing and the combination of
existing and new digital tools will
be key drivers to help retailers
boost sales.

29. • “More thorough, more often cleaning” will be the new
company promise and brand positioning.
• Increased contactless interaction with equipment,
devices, vanities and everyday stuff we used to touch
(entry doors, bathroom faucets, hand dryers, etc).
The Squeaky Clean & Spotless Economy

30. GDP
Self-contained market
Rational economic man
Mechanical equilibrium
‘Growth will even it up again’
‘Growth will clean it up again’
Growth addicted
Doughnut Economics
Kate Raworth
the Doughnut
Embedded economy
Social adaptable humans
Dynamic complexity
Distributive by design
Regenerative by design
Growth agnostic
1. Goal
2. Big picture
3. Human nature
4. Systems
5. Design
6. Creation
7. Growth
Key areas 20th Century Economics Doughnut Economics

31. essential operational “P’s”
to survive (or even thrive)
in the post-COVID-19 era…

32. • Health and sanitation will be essential aspects of
every business operations
• Focus on employee & customer health and safety
1. Protocols

33. • Invest in process innovation:
– Anything that enhances customer experience
– Anything that boosts your online presence
• Inclusive by design
2. Processes

34. • Reestablish international supply chains
• Alliance within local supply chains
• Rethink competition
3. Partnership

35. • Opportunity to transition to more sustainable
practices
• Reconsider financial performance
• Strict control of costs
• “Go bold, or go home” (try new things)
4. Performance

36. • Organizations (not just businesses) must deeply
reassess their missions
• Contribution to society
• Consider a stakeholder approach
5. Purpose

37. •Adaptive
•Creative
Human Beings:

38. The human brain is a natural
inventor, constantly looking
for ways to do things better,
faster and easier…
We will find a way!
#BetterNormal

39. edward.erasmus@ua.aw