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Theory to Practice:
Translating Pricing Theory into Reality
Suresh Acharya, VP of Product Management
Agenda


                                                         •   Overview of RM
                                                         •   Media Industry
                                                         •   Ratecard Optimization
                                                         •   Dynamic Placement
                                                         •   Questions




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                               2
Overview of RM Systems:
Perishable Inventory




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL   3
Overview of RM Systems:
  Demand Shaping

                   RM systems work by
                  RM systems work by predicting
                   predicting future demand,
                  future demand, based on booking
                  history and current history and
                   based on booking booking trends
                   current booking trends
                                                                                                                       Excess
                                                                                                                      Demand
             Capacity
Units Sold




                                                                                     By understanding the inventory
                                                                                     constraints, an RM algorithm decides
                                                                                     which subject of the remaining bookings
                                                                                     should yield out or displace

                                                                  Days Left                                         Service Date




                        Legend:                 Observed Demand          Unconstrained Demand       Capacity




  Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                                                                           4
Overview of RM Systems:
Customer Segmentation
                                           DILUTED                                            UNACCOMMODATED
                                           DEMAND                      $100
        $100                                                                                  DEMAND
                                                                        $80

                                                                        $60




                                                               PRICE
PRICE




         $50
                                                                        $40

                                                                        $20

           $1                                                            $1
                   1                       50            100                  1    20    40    60   80 100
                                   DEMAND                                            DEMAND
         • 1 Price                                                       •    4 Prices
         • Maximum achievable revenue of                                 •    Broader market segments can be
           $2,500                                                             addressed
                                                                         •    Produces $4,000 in revenue


Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Price & Inventory Optimization


                                            Inventory               Willingness 
                                                                      to pay


          Price 
                                                                                     Competitive
        Sensitive 
                                                                                        Data
        Forecasts



                                                             Optimization


                                                     Optimal Price Recommendations
Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                                             6
Similarities:
Media and Other Industries

                                                        Perishable inventory
                                                        Segmentation for efficient inventory usage
                                                        Fixed or inflexible inventory
                                                        Purchase date vs. service date
                                                        Competition affects rates
                                                        Integration with transactional systems




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Distinctions:
Special Considerations in the Media Industry

                                                          What is being directly
                                                           purchased is not what the
                                                           buyer is buying
                                                          Stochastic nature of yield
                                                          Small number of buyers
                                                          Different delivery vehicles can
                                                           be used to satisfy shortages
                                                          Splitting of inventory for Sales
                                                           and Promotions
                                                          Pre-emptibility




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Challenges in Media:

                                                          Constant changes in the
                                                           selling vehicles
                                                          Rotational buyers vs.
                                                           “cherry-picking” buyers
                                                          Changing delivery platforms
                                                          Imbalance of revenues
                                                           between delivery platforms
                                                          Ever increasing number of
                                                           selling items




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Ratecard Building

                      The basis of selling is to determine at what price
                       can something be sold to make the most revenue.
                      There are many groups that have a vested interest:
                              o     Finance: Here are our budget targets
                              o     Programming: Here is what we have to sell
                              o     Research: Here is the data behind the inventory
                              o     Sales: Here is how we should sell it
                              o     Revenue Planning / Management: Here are the statistical
                                    trends




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Ratecard Modification

                   Once rates are set, the next set of questions begins:
                           o Should I change the rates?
                           o Which rate(s) should I change?
                           o For all time periods and by how much?
                           o What relationships should be maintained between different
                             selling vehicles?
                           o What is the overall revenue impact?
                           o What are different scenarios that need to be considered?




Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Ratecard Optimization


                                            Inventory          Stewardship 
                                                                / ADU Req


        Demand                                                                Business 
        Forecasts                                                              Rules



                                                         Optimization
               JDA Media Rate Optimizer generates optimal ratecards based on a
              holistic evaluation of forecasts, remaining inventory and business rules
Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                                    12
Media RM Problem
Matching Demand and Supply
                             Demand                      Supply




        In addition to the optimal assignment of requests of spots, there are many
             complicating rules in media that make the problem very difficult
Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                               13
Media RM Placement Problem
Matching demand and supply

  Demand                                                 Supply
   Advertisers buy eyeballs;                             Network sells advertising
    i.e., the attention of                                 time
    audience                                              The value of advertising
   The size of audience                                   time depends on program
    depends on program, week,                              and week
    and target demographics                               Network is limited by
   Demand is price-sensitive                              capacity and level of sale
   Demand comes with                                      objectives
    complex and many times                                Opportunity to transfer
    conflicting restrictions                               inventory between Sales
                                                           and On-Air Promotions

Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Dynamic Placement:
Optimal Utilization of Inventory




      Many problems include those in transportation involve the assignment of
            space against available capacity to maximize overall value


Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                          15
Dynamic Placement:
Under the Hood
Minimize opportunity cost of                              Lost Impressions
                                                                              Manual
   placement subject to …
                                                                             Placement
       –    Audience requirements
       –    Daypart Mix
       –    Flighting
       –    Program quality constraints
       –    Program inclusions/exclusions
       –    Program/time block availability
                                                           More Units &
       –    Demand                                         Impressions        Optimal
       –    Frequency                                      Remaining         Placement
       –    Category conflicts
       –    Spot length mix                                Improved
       –    “Sellability”                                  Efficiency


 Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
Dynamic Placement:
Different Realities

In certain media
industries, it is possible to
reassign spots on a
periodic basis.


 In other industries, each
 proposal must be
 assigned with little to no
 opportunity to re-assign.
          JDA Commercial Proposal Optimization solution enables the optimal
           assignment of ad requests to spots to maximize overall profitability
Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                            17
Dynamic Placement:
Heuristic vs. Optimization


Rule of Thumb-based
solve methodologies are
known to produce inferior
recommendations –
costing companies
millions of dollars.



          Media RM problems are often categorized as difficult combinatorial problems.
            These types of problems require sophisticated optimization technology.


Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL                                   18
How can you go WRONG with
Revenue Management?
      Selling the right product
            to the right customer
            at the right time
           for the right price
     through the right channel
        RM is a process of maximizing revenue from a
         “perishable” product through a combination of
                 pricing and inventory control.
Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL   19
Theory to Practice:
Translating Pricing Theory into Reality
More Info: www.jda.com/revenuemanagement

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Translating Pricing Theory into Reality

  • 1. Theory to Practice: Translating Pricing Theory into Reality Suresh Acharya, VP of Product Management
  • 2. Agenda • Overview of RM • Media Industry • Ratecard Optimization • Dynamic Placement • Questions Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 2
  • 3. Overview of RM Systems: Perishable Inventory Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 3
  • 4. Overview of RM Systems: Demand Shaping RM systems work by RM systems work by predicting predicting future demand, future demand, based on booking history and current history and based on booking booking trends current booking trends Excess Demand Capacity Units Sold By understanding the inventory constraints, an RM algorithm decides which subject of the remaining bookings should yield out or displace Days Left Service Date Legend: Observed Demand Unconstrained Demand Capacity Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 4
  • 5. Overview of RM Systems: Customer Segmentation DILUTED UNACCOMMODATED DEMAND $100 $100 DEMAND $80 $60 PRICE PRICE $50 $40 $20 $1 $1 1 50 100 1 20 40 60 80 100 DEMAND DEMAND • 1 Price • 4 Prices • Maximum achievable revenue of • Broader market segments can be $2,500 addressed • Produces $4,000 in revenue Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 6. Price & Inventory Optimization Inventory Willingness  to pay Price  Competitive Sensitive  Data Forecasts Optimization Optimal Price Recommendations Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 6
  • 7. Similarities: Media and Other Industries  Perishable inventory  Segmentation for efficient inventory usage  Fixed or inflexible inventory  Purchase date vs. service date  Competition affects rates  Integration with transactional systems Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 8. Distinctions: Special Considerations in the Media Industry  What is being directly purchased is not what the buyer is buying  Stochastic nature of yield  Small number of buyers  Different delivery vehicles can be used to satisfy shortages  Splitting of inventory for Sales and Promotions  Pre-emptibility Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 9. Challenges in Media:  Constant changes in the selling vehicles  Rotational buyers vs. “cherry-picking” buyers  Changing delivery platforms  Imbalance of revenues between delivery platforms  Ever increasing number of selling items Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 10. Ratecard Building  The basis of selling is to determine at what price can something be sold to make the most revenue.  There are many groups that have a vested interest: o Finance: Here are our budget targets o Programming: Here is what we have to sell o Research: Here is the data behind the inventory o Sales: Here is how we should sell it o Revenue Planning / Management: Here are the statistical trends Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 11. Ratecard Modification  Once rates are set, the next set of questions begins: o Should I change the rates? o Which rate(s) should I change? o For all time periods and by how much? o What relationships should be maintained between different selling vehicles? o What is the overall revenue impact? o What are different scenarios that need to be considered? Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 12. Ratecard Optimization Inventory Stewardship  / ADU Req Demand  Business  Forecasts Rules Optimization JDA Media Rate Optimizer generates optimal ratecards based on a holistic evaluation of forecasts, remaining inventory and business rules Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 12
  • 13. Media RM Problem Matching Demand and Supply Demand Supply In addition to the optimal assignment of requests of spots, there are many complicating rules in media that make the problem very difficult Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 13
  • 14. Media RM Placement Problem Matching demand and supply Demand Supply  Advertisers buy eyeballs;  Network sells advertising i.e., the attention of time audience  The value of advertising  The size of audience time depends on program depends on program, week, and week and target demographics  Network is limited by  Demand is price-sensitive capacity and level of sale  Demand comes with objectives complex and many times  Opportunity to transfer conflicting restrictions inventory between Sales and On-Air Promotions Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 15. Dynamic Placement: Optimal Utilization of Inventory Many problems include those in transportation involve the assignment of space against available capacity to maximize overall value Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 15
  • 16. Dynamic Placement: Under the Hood Minimize opportunity cost of Lost Impressions Manual placement subject to … Placement – Audience requirements – Daypart Mix – Flighting – Program quality constraints – Program inclusions/exclusions – Program/time block availability More Units & – Demand Impressions Optimal – Frequency Remaining Placement – Category conflicts – Spot length mix Improved – “Sellability” Efficiency Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL
  • 17. Dynamic Placement: Different Realities In certain media industries, it is possible to reassign spots on a periodic basis. In other industries, each proposal must be assigned with little to no opportunity to re-assign. JDA Commercial Proposal Optimization solution enables the optimal assignment of ad requests to spots to maximize overall profitability Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 17
  • 18. Dynamic Placement: Heuristic vs. Optimization Rule of Thumb-based solve methodologies are known to produce inferior recommendations – costing companies millions of dollars. Media RM problems are often categorized as difficult combinatorial problems. These types of problems require sophisticated optimization technology. Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 18
  • 19. How can you go WRONG with Revenue Management? Selling the right product to the right customer at the right time for the right price through the right channel RM is a process of maximizing revenue from a “perishable” product through a combination of pricing and inventory control. Copyright 2013 JDA Software Group, Inc. - CONFIDENTIAL 19
  • 20. Theory to Practice: Translating Pricing Theory into Reality More Info: www.jda.com/revenuemanagement