Transition to a Low Carbon, Post Fossil Fuel Future

1. Transition to a Low Carbon Post Fossil Fuel Future Brendan Barrett United Nations University

2. Since we last spoke...

3. What do these two people have in common? Richard Branson Sir David King, UK Government Virgin Group former chief scientist

4. 10 February 2010 UK Industry Task Force Report... “The oil crunch will happen in the next ﬁve years...” See: http://peakoiltaskforce.net/

5. 23 March 2010 Oxford University report states “...current oil reserves should be downgraded from 1150-1350 bbpd to 850-900 bbpd...” The Status of Conventional Oil Reserves - Hype or Cause for Concern, Energy Policy Journal See: http://www.off-grid.net/2010/03/22/peak-oil-back-in-the-news/

6. 4 February 2010 paper by researchers at Kuwait University develop new model “estimated world oil production to peak in 2014” Published in: Ibrahim Sami Nashawi; Adel Malallah; Mohammed Al-Bisharah; Energy Fuels Article ASAP

7. The era of cheap oil is over

8. We need a plan

9. Assertions Climate change makes the carbon reduction transition essential. Peak oil makes it inevitable. Shifting away from fossil fuels creates a huge energy short-fall. Low carbon society, 2000 Watt Society, and Transition initiatives make it feasible, viable and attractive. We have to change, but how fast can we change?

10. Recall Holgrem’s Four Energy Futures

11. Techno- new energy sources allow continual explosion (Star growth in material wealth Trek!) steady state economy based on use Techno-stability of renewable energy reduction of economic activity, Energy Descent complexity and population as fossil fuels are depleted Collapse (Mad failure of systems that maintain and Max) support industrial society

12. Can we portray “energy descent” in a positive light?

13. Holgrem’s Four Energy Descent Scenarios Brown Tech Destructive Lifeboats Top down constriction Civilisation triage Global Warming Slow oil decline 2% pa Fast oil decline 10% pa Green Tech Earth Steward Distributed powerdown Benign Bottom-up rebuild http://www.futurescenarios.org

14. Settlement Energy and Culture and Scenario Form and Economy Politics Gender Agriculture Spirituality Mobility Centralized Nationalist, power, high tech High density fascist, class Brown Tech efficiency, non- cities, structure and Super rationalist, conventional oil, electric cars, National banks Male dominated Top-down hinterland and currencies rights, price and blended fundamentalist gas, coal, rationing, dictonomy constriction adandonment, nuclear, bio population shelter mass migration control agriculture Distributed Compact towns City state and Green Tech network, and cities, Regional hinterland, conservation, Balanced and Humanist, eco- Distributed gas, wind, solar, electric public currencies and markets, blended rationalist powerdown transport, funds rationing, forest, organic telecommuting democracy agriculture Distributed local hydro, methane Town and Earth Steward Ruralization of industrial bioregion Female sub-urbia, rural Local currency, Bottom-up salvage, forest, resettlement, barter Participatory dominated and Earth spirituality re-build organic and democracy? gendered minimal mobility garden Neo-fuedalism agriculture Distributed local, Lifeboats forest, range Hamlet and gated Household and Feudal systems Male dominated Civilization land, industrial communities, barter, precious Patriarchal and gendered Warrior Cult triage salvage, nomads metals authority Oasis agric.

19. Transition to a post-peak oil world Rob Hopkins, permaculturist, set up the Transition Movement. Visit his blog at: http:// transitionculture.org/

20. Transition Movement Asks the question.... how can communities respond to the challenges, and opportunities, of Peak Oil and Climate Change?

21. Transition Movement We were creative, ingenious and adaptable on the way up to the peak, and there's no reason that we will not be the same on the down slope.

22. Transition Movement “If we collectively plan and act early enough ... we can create a way of living that's signiﬁcantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with our environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we ﬁnd ourselves on today.”

23. Key Steps in the Transition • awareness raising around peak oil, climate change and the need to undertake a community led process to rebuild resilience and reduce carbon • connect with existing groups in the community and build bridges to local government • form groups to research all the key areas of life (food, energy, transport, health, etc) • kick off projects aimed at building people's understanding of resilience and carbon issues • launch a community implemented "Energy Descent Action Plan" over a 15 to 20 year time scale

24. Economic localisation is key to the transition process...... local currency systems strengthen the local economy whilst preventing money from leaking out.

25. Resources Transition Handbook by Rob Hopkins. Transition Primer. Transition Timeline for a local, resilient future. Transition Town website (http:// transitiontowns.org)

26. Transition Towns First Transition Town: Totnes, Devon, began in 2005. 170 official TTs in UK, Australia, USA, Ireland, Canada, Chile, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands and New Zealand. 600 more mulling the idea over.

27. Cheerful Transition Disclaimer “We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale. What we are convinced of is this: if we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late and if we act as individuals, it'll be too little.”

28. Move towards a Low Carbon Society

29. Japan as a Low Carbon Society In 2004, researchers at the National Institute for Environmental Studies began collaborating with academics from across Japan and the UK on the idea of a Low Carbon Economy/Society. Their report was published in June 2008 and can be downloaded at http://2050.nies.go.jp/:

30. Key conclusion Japan has the technological potential to reduce its CO2 emission by 70% compared to 1990 level, while satisfying the expected demand for energy services in 2050.

31. Two scenarios

32. Vision A “Doraemon” Vivid, Technology-driven Urban/Personal Technological breakthroughs Centralized production /recycling Comfortable and Convenient 2% annual GDP growth http://2050.nies.go.jp

33. Vision B “Totoro” Slow, Natural-oriented Decentralized/Community Self-sufficient Produce locally, consume locally Social and Cultural Values 1% annual GDP growth http://2050.nies.go.jp

34. Innovations on the demand side 0 100 200 300 400 (Mtoe) Passenger Freight 2000 Industry Household transport transport Business 2050 Scenario A Reduced energy demand 2050 Scenario B 40-45 reduction Industry Household Passenger Freight Business transport transport Smart consumer choices can reduce energy consumption by as much as 40-45%!

35. And on the supply side - 100 200 300 400 500 600 (Mtoe) 2000 Coal Oil Gas Hydro 2050 Scenario A Nuclear Use of centralized energy 2050 Scenario B Biomass Solar/ Wind Use of distributed energy Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar/Wind Low carbon shift in primary energy sources via introduction of renewable energies

36. Main Conclusion of the Research 70 CO2 reduction feasible by 1% of annual GDP

37. Carbon Footprints We are all familiar with the idea of a carbon footprint measured in kg of CO2 equivalents Raises the issue of equity - how many kg of CO2 per person? Idea not discussed fully at COP15 was Convergence. See Age of Stupid Video.

38. Convergence

39. Saul Griffith’s encourages us to think in terms of Watts Learn more at: http:// www.wattzon.com/

40. What is a Watt? A unit of power that indicates the rate at which you are using energy.

41. Power in Watts is like an average. The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second.

43. Equivalent to having a boy cycling continuously......

44. Rationale Change the conversation on personal accountability in climate change away from the common "carbon footprint" and towards collective energy reduction.

45. Rationale Measuring in power recognizes that it will not be possible to support our current lifestyles with any energy technology that we could implement in the near future - our needs are not sustainable. Energy reduction will need to be part of any solution to the global climate challenge.

46. Saul Griffith’s Energy Use (2007) Saul Grifﬁth 2008 The Game Plan Slide Set Release 1.0

47. Saul Griffith’s New Life (to ensure only 2 degree C increase in temp, 450ppm, sharing fairly with 6.5 billion people) Saul Grifﬁth 2008 The Game Plan Slide Set Release 1.0

48. 2000 Watt Society The concept was developed in 1998 by the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ). Sets a target of 2000 Watts per person. Do this without compromising living standards and mobility. Learn more at: http://www.novatlantis.ch/ index.php?id=5&L=1

49. Why 2000 Watts? 2000 Watts is the world average energy demand per person.

50. Why 2000 Watts? Saul Grifﬁth 2008 The Game Plan Slide Set Release 1.0

51. Why 2000 Watts? 15 TW Saul Grifﬁth 2008 The Game Plan Slide Set Release 1.0

52. Why 2000 Watts? 15 000 000 000 000 Watts = 2 255 Watts per person 6 650 000 000 People

53. Energy consumption per capita (today) USA 10,381 W Canada 11,055 W Russia 5,890 W Japan 5,381W Italy 4,164 W Malaysia 3,087 W Mexico 2,041 W China 1,516 W Egypt 1,013 W Ghana 533 W All move to this line Bangladesh 214 W 0 2500 5000 7500 10000 12500

54. What can we conclude? Initiatives like Transition Towns, Local Carbon Society and 2000 Watt Society are still new. Our experience in these new ﬁelds is shallow. Carbon footprints help identify our contribution to climate change. Watts helps to include consideration of how to reduce energy (i.e. especially relevant for Peak Oil).

55. The 2005 Hirsch ReportMitigation Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, warned.... and Risk Management Waiting until world oil production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deﬁcit for 20 years (very painful = major economic upheaval). Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a short-fall of liquid fuels for a decade (painful). Initiating a crash programme 20 years before peak could avoid a global fuels short-fall (painless).

56. Thank you

Transition to a Low Carbon, Post Fossil Fuel Future

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