FALLOWMeine van   Desi      Rachmat   BethaNoordwijk   Suyamto   Mulia     Lusiana www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/fallow_do...
Macro-climate change Globalization and desakota integration  Rural development Government:                       infrastru...
Framing human behaviour & decisions:Optimal foraging,         Agricultural        Portfolio theory ofopportunistic use    ...
Framing human behaviour & decisions:Optimal foraging,         Agricultural        Portfolio theory ofopportunistic use    ...
The FALLOW model currently contains ele-ments of several theories of                        decision making:   Optimal for...
www.agralin.nl/ojs/index.php/njas/article/view/588/302
A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning                      A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt)     ...
Short model descriptionGoal of model development:• Represent continuum of ‘subsistence’ to ‘market integration’, shifting ...
Short model description       maximizing ‘utility’     ‘model inside the model’:         (profitability)• Diagram         ...
Lusianaet all.,underreview
Developments needed to                                                                            better deal with this at...
Developments needed to better                                                                      deal with this attribut...
Final remarks  Common features in x-scale  model family ~ databases              Tree                           FBA allome...
Initial version in Stella for 10*10 gridSimplified model operates on PC-Raster dynamic GIS platform,   district level <1...
Multipurpose agroforestry as a climatechange resiliency option for farmers: anexample of local adaptation in Vietnam  Quan...
Solar radiation and Green-House Gas effect Vegetation effects on rainfall triggering                             Macro-   ...
Pfrom Et/Pvan der Ent RJ, SavenijeHHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐Dunne SC, 2010. Originand fate of atmosphericmoisture overcontin...
South Africa’sconcept of pay-ments for treeplantations thatevaporate water atabove-averagerates, can not betransferred to ...
Financial capital                       Emotion, intuitionMacro-economic   Human              Social       Risk &      . d...
Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
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Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23

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Presentation from the CCAFS Farm-household Modeling workshop - Amsterdam, 23-35 April 2012

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Van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23

  1. 1. FALLOWMeine van Desi Rachmat BethaNoordwijk Suyamto Mulia Lusiana www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/fallow_download Short presentation at CCAFS workshop: Farm- household modelling with a focus on food security, climate change adaptation, risk management and mitigation: a way forward, 23-25 April 2012
  2. 2. Macro-climate change Globalization and desakota integration Rural development Government: infrastructure, Labour, Land, land use/access Water, Soil fer- planningtility, Germplasm, Capital Decision Knowledge and making on Self-reliant vs know-how, market-reliant Norms & agricultural livelihood sanctions resource strategies use Sustainability & Agent differen- tiation: gender, Sustainagility class, age, Private sec- power, ethnicity tor: input & output markets
  3. 3. Framing human behaviour & decisions:Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory ofopportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso- economics” economics” economics” Collective action, Linear Development bounded altruism, programming, planning & ‘green social norms, do’s multi-goal growth’: “macro- & don’ts optimization economics” Trusted sources of Agent-based Payments for eco- information: models: wealth, system services: extension & class, age, gender, “environmental innovation theory power, ethnicity economics” Rights-based Planetary boun- System dynamics: approaches: daries, ecological positive & negative bundles of rights sustainability: feedback loops to resource use “giga-economics”
  4. 4. Framing human behaviour & decisions:Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory ofopportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso- economics” economics” economics” Grand synthesis is yet to come, but Collective action, bounded altruism, Linear programming, Development planning & ‘green we’re starting to connect at least social norms, do’s & don’ts multi-goal optimization growth’: “macro- economics”some of these theories in our current Trusted sources of information: Agent-based models: wealth, Payments for eco- system services: extension & class, age, gender, environmental models…. innovation theory power, ethnicity economics” Rights-based Planetary boun- System dynamics: approaches: daries, ecological positive & negative bundles of rights sustainability: feedback loops to resource use “giga-economics”
  5. 5. The FALLOW model currently contains ele-ments of several theories of decision making: Optimal foraging, Agricultural Portfolio theory of opportunistic use economics: NPV, risk & rational of time; “pico- R2L; “micro- diversity: “meso- economics” economics” economics” Agent-based Trusted sources of System dynamics: models: wealth, information: positive & negative class, age, gender, extension & feedback loops power, ethnicity innovation theory Rights-based Payments for eco- Dynamic Geo- approaches: system services: Informatics bundles of rights “environmental System to resource use economics”
  6. 6. www.agralin.nl/ojs/index.php/njas/article/view/588/302
  7. 7. A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt) Livelihoods, provisioning & profitability Land Conse- Response/ Actors/Drivers use/cover quences & feedback agents changes functions options Biodiversity, Watershed functions, GHG emissions, Landscape beauty B2. PES and conditional ES incentives B1. Incentive structure through policy change (tax, subsidy etc) Modified from Van Noordwijk et al., 2011
  8. 8. Short model descriptionGoal of model development:• Represent continuum of ‘subsistence’ to ‘market integration’, shifting cultivation to permanently cropped fields, labour + cash constrained decisions in a ‘tropical forest margin’ setting• Dynamics of soil fertility (~ Trenbath) and (agro)forest resources• Relate dynamic knowledge of landscape agents to dynamic action (decision making) in ‘adopt & learn’ mode; open to impact analysis of ‘extension’• Explore spatial dynamics, consequences of land use zoning, restrictions to access• Tradeoff and scenario analysis of livelihoods & ES (C-stocks, biodiversity, key watershed functions)• Use in spatial planning and scenario development boundary workTypical research questions addressed:1) Can we account for historical land use change of a study area (calibration/validation phase)2) What can we expect (‘scenarios’) of ‘business as usual’ extrapolation compared to specific interventions in spatial planning, demographic, economic, K-dynamics, PES-incentive systems
  9. 9. Short model description maximizing ‘utility’ ‘model inside the model’: (profitability)• Diagram dynamic knowledge - learning (external-extension and of model internal - experience) ≈
  10. 10. Lusianaet all.,underreview
  11. 11. Developments needed to better deal with this attributeAttribute Covered If ‘yes’, which Which indicators For your model For house- in pre- indicators were used? would you like to use hold level vious ana- in future to deal with models in lyses? attribute? generalEconomic Y •Non-food expendi- • Empirical GINI • Learning sty- Multipleperformance ture coefficients les ~ decision discount • Returns to labour • (Attractiveness to) rules rates ~ • Learning styles external investment •Degree of decision •In/out-migration • External input prioritization making as outcome dependencyFood self- Y • Landscape-level • Empirical GINI Preferential Distribu-sufficiency production ~ coefficients treatment of tional demand staple food ~ issues, •Exchange across portfolio landless landscape border choices HH’sFood security Y •Income security • Empirical GINI Multiple buffer Risk avoi- •Interannual buffer coefficients concepts ~ ex- dance in •Nutritional ternal shocks switch to diversity markets
  12. 12. Developments needed to better deal with this attributeAttribute Covered in If ‘yes’, which Which indicators would For your model For house-hold previous indicators were you like to use in future level models in analyses? used? to deal with attribute? generalClimate y Single random Partial correlates of Link to rela- Portfoliovariability variate on yields stochastic effects on ted model for analysis, multiple crops & prepro- multiple income sources cessing buffersRisk y Multiple model Substitutibility Partial de- Desakota runs across key across different pendence of family stochastic para- buffer types external price networks (rur- meters variation urb)Mitigation y Landscape level Livestock-based PES mecha- x-scale PES C stocks emission estimates nisms ~ HH mechanisms scaleAdaptation y Local experience Interactions Meso-clima- X-scale based learning between diverse tic influences sustain-agility as driver of learning styles on ClimVar analyses decisions impacts
  13. 13. Final remarks Common features in x-scale model family ~ databases Tree FBA allometry Plot/patch WaNuLCAS, SExI-FS Household/landscape FALLOW, ABM’s GenRiver Watershed Daily Annual time-stepsStrong interest in using models as ‘boundary objects’ in K2A analysis with local stakeholders
  14. 14. Initial version in Stella for 10*10 gridSimplified model operates on PC-Raster dynamic GIS platform, district level <100,000 ha Recent applications Suyamto DA, Mulia R, van 1) in context of OpCost/REALU in Noordwijk M and Lusiana Indonesia, Viet Nam B. 2009. Fallow 2.0. Manual and 2) Aceh post Tsunami Software. Bogor, Indonesia. World recovery & land use planning Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF, SEA 3) Livestock intergration Regional Office. 67 p. 4) University courseshttp://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/af2/fallow_download
  15. 15. Multipurpose agroforestry as a climatechange resiliency option for farmers: anexample of local adaptation in Vietnam Quan Nguyen, Minh Ha Hoang, Ingrid Öborn, and Meine van NoordwijkRecently, the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change (Beddington et al. 2011) launched its recommendations for ensuring food security under a changing climate. The report does not mention trees, forests or agroforestry as important for food security. This is in contrast to the ways farming traditions have evolved (van Noordwijk et al. 2011) and how farmers currently try to adapt to further climate change.
  16. 16. Solar radiation and Green-House Gas effect Vegetation effects on rainfall triggering Macro- Teleconnections of rainfall with sea sur- face temperatureRainfall pattern&intensity Meso- Local tree cover: wind- breaks, shade treesTemperature, humidity,windspeed, incoming Micro - Plant growthradiation, potential eva-potranspiration at the level climate Water supplyof plants or animals buffered by soil
  17. 17. Pfrom Et/Pvan der Ent RJ, SavenijeHHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐Dunne SC, 2010. Originand fate of atmosphericmoisture overcontinents. WaterResources Research 46, E/PW09525,
  18. 18. South Africa’sconcept of pay-ments for treeplantations thatevaporate water atabove-averagerates, can not betransferred to E.Africa, where suchevapotrans-pirationis likely to return asrainfall.
  19. 19. Financial capital Emotion, intuitionMacro-economic Human Social Risk & . development buffering capital Pico- capital economics sermons Ratio Social norms Infra- Natural structure Spatial planning & LU rights capital Giga-economic green development

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