The document provides an overview of a presentation on modeling impacts of climate variability and sea level rise on coastal utilities. It frames the topic by discussing proxies that help understand past climate, controversies around hockey stick graphs and Climategate, increasing greenhouse gases, temperature increases and melting ice, projected sea level rise, and evidence of past climate variation. It outlines greenhouse gases and their relative global warming potentials, with methane and sulfur hexafluoride having much higher potentials than carbon dioxide.
Manali is famous tourist attraction place in Himachal Pradesh, a hill station situated at a height of 2050m (6398 ft.) in the Himalayas. It is best tourist spot for travelling in summer and a magical, snow-covered put in winter. A delightful hill station Manali in Himachal Pradesh for the adventure lovers it is an impeccable destination to find and explore nature.
Manali is famous tourist attraction place in Himachal Pradesh, a hill station situated at a height of 2050m (6398 ft.) in the Himalayas. It is best tourist spot for travelling in summer and a magical, snow-covered put in winter. A delightful hill station Manali in Himachal Pradesh for the adventure lovers it is an impeccable destination to find and explore nature.
First lecture:
Climate Change and the New industrial revolution -
What we risk and how we should cast the economics and ethics
Speaker(s): Professor Lord Stern
Chair: Professor Lord Richard Layard
Recorded on 21 February 2012 in Old Theatre, Old Building
09-28-17 Lifelong Learning Lecture: Jim HaynesEllsworth1835
"Natural and Human Causes of Climate Change: What Scientists Know and How They Know It"
Presented by James M. Haynes, PhD, Interim Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs, Professor of Environmental Science and Ecology
For eons, six slowly, often intermittently acting natural forces have changed the Earth's temperature within a range of +7 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to climate swings from ice ages to planet-wide tropical conditions. Now, a seventh rapidly acting force is changing climate—modern human civilization. What evidences of climate change are observed today, and what is likely to happen to our children and generations beyond as a result of human activity in the recent past and today? What can we do to minimize the impacts of the changes to come?
Carbon CycleThis module uses a variety of sources to educate.docxtidwellveronique
Carbon Cycle
This module uses a variety of sources to educate you about the carbon cycle and current theories of climate. In this module, you will use resources that have opposing views about the impact of humans on the carbon cycle and global climate.
Of the many, many, different theories about climate change, we are only presenting a few. Our attempt in this activity is to give a few examples illustrating the complexity involved in studying the environment and the impact of bias on scientific research.
A. The carbon cycle is currently in the news as people look for explanations for changes in climate. This issue provides excellent examples of bias in the presentation of information.
What is bias in relation to science and reporting? Use any online dictionary and search for “bias”. Write the definition that relates to bias in science and reporting.
Answer:
Does being biased necessarily mean that you are wrong?
Yes
No
B. Theories Explaining Climate Change:
Climate fluctuations have long been observed to be cyclical. Theories explaining the variations include the following:
· Human Cause. Humans are responsible for an increase in greenhouse gases that is causing the Earth to warm up and change the climate.
· Natural Cycle. The climate changes observed are cyclical and natural.
· Volcanic Events. Volcanoes cause variations in the ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to absorb energy.
· Astronomical Cause. The Milankivitch Theory asserts that climate changes are caused by changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis. Changes in some areas are balanced by opposite changes in other areas.
· Variations if Energy Output from the Sun. Variations in heat from the sun causes drastic changes in climate.
C. Two movies shown in movie theaters have energized the “Global Climate Change” controversy. Evaluate the following movies using the questions on the next page. All information for this page is contained on the websites linked below. If you would like to learn more, you may be able to rent the movies.
Movie 1: An Inconvenient Truth
Website: http://www.takepart.com/an-inconvenient-truth Click the link “The Film” on the top tab and evaluate the reading list on the right side of the page. Much information was removed from the original website, however, the RealClimate website mostly supports the movie and provides a review at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/al-gores-movie/.
The website for An Inconvenient Truth has removed the original science pages and the "Hockey Stick" graphic that was one of its main graphics. It now links the following information from its official website at takepart.com:
Purpose Statement. Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth.
· An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air.
· The gases ...
We are the students of Ahsanullah University of Science And Technology from civil Engineering department .We have prepared a presentation for our Environmental Engineering lll course to explain global warming and climate change.Global Warming and Climate Change is hot topic nowadays .So this presentation was made to discover main causes behind this situation . Is Anthropogenic or natural?? In this presentation we have tried to explain this .
London Colder than Antarctica" unusual Trends of Global Cooling- Swechha ShuklaNeeraj Parashar
Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall and avalanches are the results of global changes and not local incidents. Vernacular Newspaper "Danik Bhaskar" has covered her paper with photograph on 18th February, 2010.
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and HealthTeresa Eastburn
2013 workshop, Climate Change Connections to Our Weather, Environment, & Health at the 13th Annual K12 Summer Institute sponsored by Texas A&M in Houston.
Climate change and Global Warming by Kiersten LippmannKiersten Lippmann
Beautiful, graphic rich slides to engage students based on Essential Environment by Withgott and Laposota. Slides cover Chapter 14 Global Climate Change
This presentation briefly describes the term - climate change and what we know and what we don't know. The intention was to understand the ideology of the term, framing of the term and politics behind this.
First lecture:
Climate Change and the New industrial revolution -
What we risk and how we should cast the economics and ethics
Speaker(s): Professor Lord Stern
Chair: Professor Lord Richard Layard
Recorded on 21 February 2012 in Old Theatre, Old Building
09-28-17 Lifelong Learning Lecture: Jim HaynesEllsworth1835
"Natural and Human Causes of Climate Change: What Scientists Know and How They Know It"
Presented by James M. Haynes, PhD, Interim Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs, Professor of Environmental Science and Ecology
For eons, six slowly, often intermittently acting natural forces have changed the Earth's temperature within a range of +7 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to climate swings from ice ages to planet-wide tropical conditions. Now, a seventh rapidly acting force is changing climate—modern human civilization. What evidences of climate change are observed today, and what is likely to happen to our children and generations beyond as a result of human activity in the recent past and today? What can we do to minimize the impacts of the changes to come?
Carbon CycleThis module uses a variety of sources to educate.docxtidwellveronique
Carbon Cycle
This module uses a variety of sources to educate you about the carbon cycle and current theories of climate. In this module, you will use resources that have opposing views about the impact of humans on the carbon cycle and global climate.
Of the many, many, different theories about climate change, we are only presenting a few. Our attempt in this activity is to give a few examples illustrating the complexity involved in studying the environment and the impact of bias on scientific research.
A. The carbon cycle is currently in the news as people look for explanations for changes in climate. This issue provides excellent examples of bias in the presentation of information.
What is bias in relation to science and reporting? Use any online dictionary and search for “bias”. Write the definition that relates to bias in science and reporting.
Answer:
Does being biased necessarily mean that you are wrong?
Yes
No
B. Theories Explaining Climate Change:
Climate fluctuations have long been observed to be cyclical. Theories explaining the variations include the following:
· Human Cause. Humans are responsible for an increase in greenhouse gases that is causing the Earth to warm up and change the climate.
· Natural Cycle. The climate changes observed are cyclical and natural.
· Volcanic Events. Volcanoes cause variations in the ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to absorb energy.
· Astronomical Cause. The Milankivitch Theory asserts that climate changes are caused by changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis. Changes in some areas are balanced by opposite changes in other areas.
· Variations if Energy Output from the Sun. Variations in heat from the sun causes drastic changes in climate.
C. Two movies shown in movie theaters have energized the “Global Climate Change” controversy. Evaluate the following movies using the questions on the next page. All information for this page is contained on the websites linked below. If you would like to learn more, you may be able to rent the movies.
Movie 1: An Inconvenient Truth
Website: http://www.takepart.com/an-inconvenient-truth Click the link “The Film” on the top tab and evaluate the reading list on the right side of the page. Much information was removed from the original website, however, the RealClimate website mostly supports the movie and provides a review at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/al-gores-movie/.
The website for An Inconvenient Truth has removed the original science pages and the "Hockey Stick" graphic that was one of its main graphics. It now links the following information from its official website at takepart.com:
Purpose Statement. Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth.
· An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air.
· The gases ...
We are the students of Ahsanullah University of Science And Technology from civil Engineering department .We have prepared a presentation for our Environmental Engineering lll course to explain global warming and climate change.Global Warming and Climate Change is hot topic nowadays .So this presentation was made to discover main causes behind this situation . Is Anthropogenic or natural?? In this presentation we have tried to explain this .
London Colder than Antarctica" unusual Trends of Global Cooling- Swechha ShuklaNeeraj Parashar
Swechha Shukla has presented a paper "London Colder than Antarctica" - Unusual Trends of Global Cooling. It drawn attention on changes in northern hemispheres and successfully conveyed that snowfall and avalanches are the results of global changes and not local incidents. Vernacular Newspaper "Danik Bhaskar" has covered her paper with photograph on 18th February, 2010.
2013 Climate Change Connections to our Weather, Environment, and HealthTeresa Eastburn
2013 workshop, Climate Change Connections to Our Weather, Environment, & Health at the 13th Annual K12 Summer Institute sponsored by Texas A&M in Houston.
Climate change and Global Warming by Kiersten LippmannKiersten Lippmann
Beautiful, graphic rich slides to engage students based on Essential Environment by Withgott and Laposota. Slides cover Chapter 14 Global Climate Change
This presentation briefly describes the term - climate change and what we know and what we don't know. The intention was to understand the ideology of the term, framing of the term and politics behind this.
The Public Works Director Roundtable is intended to help Directors across Florida network and share with each other the important issues and challenges every Director faces and how they can excel in their difficult roles.
This session covers how our Florida transportation infrastructure is funded and ways we can fix the shortfalls in our funding system. The presentation covers indexing gas tax, raising the county imposed gas tax and what public opinion is for raising gas taxes.
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Up the Ratios Bylaws - a Comprehensive Process of Our Organizationuptheratios
Up the Ratios is a non-profit organization dedicated to bridging the gap in STEM education for underprivileged students by providing free, high-quality learning opportunities in robotics and other STEM fields. Our mission is to empower the next generation of innovators, thinkers, and problem-solvers by offering a range of educational programs that foster curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking.
At Up the Ratios, we believe that every student, regardless of their socio-economic background, should have access to the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in today's technology-driven world. To achieve this, we host a variety of free classes, workshops, summer camps, and live lectures tailored to students from underserved communities. Our programs are designed to be engaging and hands-on, allowing students to explore the exciting world of robotics and STEM through practical, real-world applications.
Our free classes cover fundamental concepts in robotics, coding, and engineering, providing students with a strong foundation in these critical areas. Through our interactive workshops, students can dive deeper into specific topics, working on projects that challenge them to apply what they've learned and think creatively. Our summer camps offer an immersive experience where students can collaborate on larger projects, develop their teamwork skills, and gain confidence in their abilities.
In addition to our local programs, Up the Ratios is committed to making a global impact. We take donations of new and gently used robotics parts, which we then distribute to students and educational institutions in other countries. These donations help ensure that young learners worldwide have the resources they need to explore and excel in STEM fields. By supporting education in this way, we aim to nurture a global community of future leaders and innovators.
Our live lectures feature guest speakers from various STEM disciplines, including engineers, scientists, and industry professionals who share their knowledge and experiences with our students. These lectures provide valuable insights into potential career paths and inspire students to pursue their passions in STEM.
Up the Ratios relies on the generosity of donors and volunteers to continue our work. Contributions of time, expertise, and financial support are crucial to sustaining our programs and expanding our reach. Whether you're an individual passionate about education, a professional in the STEM field, or a company looking to give back to the community, there are many ways to get involved and make a difference.
We are proud of the positive impact we've had on the lives of countless students, many of whom have gone on to pursue higher education and careers in STEM. By providing these young minds with the tools and opportunities they need to succeed, we are not only changing their futures but also contributing to the advancement of technology and innovation on a broader scale.
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
1. Track 7: Modeling Impacts of Climate Variability
and Sea Level Rise on Coastal Surface Water Utility
(Part 1 – Framing Climate Variability)
Florida Public Works Expo - Tampa
April 19, 2016
2. Overview
• PART 1 – Track 7: Framing Climate Variability
and Sea Level Rise Concerns
• PART 2 – Track 11: Water Supply Reliability
Modeling on the Peace River
3. Framing Climate Variability and
Sea Level Rise
• Introduction
• Proxies Help Bridge Understanding of the Past
• Climate Controversy: Hockey Sticks/Climategate
• Greenhouse Gases
• Temperature and Melting Ice
• Sea Level Rise
• Evidence of Past Extreme Climate Variation
• Projected Climate Conditions
• Conclusions
8. Climate Policy
• Policy makers represent the broad, often
conflicting, interests of society
Recent Gallup poll
on what issues most
concern Americans
10. If You Condensed All of Earth’s History
into 24 Hours
• Dinosaurs died out at 20 minutes before midnight
• Hominids appear in the last 100 seconds
• Preserved ice cores let us “see” back 1 minute
• Our country has only been around 4.5 milliseconds
• Scientific data only goes back 1.5 milliseconds before
midnight
24 hours
11. Lacking Extensive Scientific Climate
Record, We must use Proxies to Help
Understand the Past
• Geologists & Paleontologists
• Anthropologists & Archaeologists
• Dendrologists & Paleoclimatologists
• Atmospheric Scientists, Speleologists
• Glaciologists
12. Some Issues with Using Proxies
• Proxies indicate “What”, but not “Why”
• Local/Regional Proxies don’t always reflect Global
• Proxies Can be Unreliable:
– Subject to interpretation by the Investigator
– QC and Processing Standards are often Ad Hoc
– Samples destroyed in Analysis are impossible to verify
– Cases of Poor Interpretation, Exaggerations or
Misrepresentation breed Skepticism
16. Conditions During the Medieval
Warm Period
• Warmer conditions
– 2 to 4 degrees F higher than today
• Longer growing seasons and milder winters
• Bountiful agricultural harvests
– Wheat and vineyards in the far north
• Long stretches of regular weather (few
droughts)
17. The Fate of the Vikings
• Little Ice Age began about 1350
• Black Plague happened about the same time
Plaque in
Weymouth
England
18. • Killed 60% of
Europe’s
population
• Quarantines
for Shipping
• But in 1349 a
wool
merchant
ship with all
dead aboard
grounded on
coast of
Norway
19. The Little Ice Age was an Era of
Plagues
60 million died
1 million died
100,000 died
100,000 died
650,000 died
500,000 died
20. Vikings Abandon Greenland by 1400
• Black Plague ~ 1350
• Cooling Temperatures
brought livestock indoors
for protection & warmth
• Less fodder – livestock and
even dogs eaten
• Iron and other tools left
behind
• Declining trade from
plague-decimated Europe
22. Design of a Hockey Stick
Butt
End Shaft Heel
Toe
23. One of the Most
Significant and
Unfortunate Proxy
Controversies
24. After Marginalizing the MWP and LIA, the straight
shaft was created, thus was Born the “Hockey Stick”
Analogy
25. The Sheep Mountain Bristlecone Pines,
some of the oldest living organisms on
the planet ~ 5,000 years old!
26. Bristlecone
Pines
• Oldest non-clonal living
organism > 5,000 yrs old
• Found in Southwest US
• Grows on dolomite slopes
• Annual rainfall < 12” year
• Individual needles live 40 years
• Far more reactive to
precipitation than temperature
27. McKitrick & McIntyre
• Questioned tree ring data and dug deeper
• Mann refused to release his data
• Eventually got Access to Data and found:
– Mann’s algorithms flattened temps in middle ages
and favored upspike at the present
– “Desirable” proxies favored as much as 390:1
– So contrived, random data fed into the algorithm
could produce “desired” results
• Nature reportedly declined to publish
retraction or rebuttal indicating they felt it
would be “too confusing” to their readers
28. In the Meantime
• Mann’s paper, matched the
policy-influencing narrative
IPCC wanted
• Mann, at the relatively young
age of 35 became one of 8
lead authors of the IPCC
Third Assessment Report in
2001
• He became a recognized
expert overnight
• But then, inexplicably, the
planet quit warming for a
decade
29. “Climategate”
• In 2009 the UEA’s Climate Research Unit suffered
public disclosure of thousands of emails
• Embarrassing and unprofessional, churlish and
spiteful at times, intent on colluding to deceive and
then destroying evidence of any collusion
• Hacked or Leaked? Never solved…
University of East Anglia
30. Selected Climategate Emails from Phil Jones,
Head of Climate Research Unit (CRU)
• "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps
to each series for the last 20 years and from 1961 for Keith's to
hide the decline.“
• From 2005: And don't leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you
never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after
the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom
of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather
than send to anyone. Does your similar act in the US force you to
respond to enquiries within 20 days?—our does! The UK works on
precedents, so the first request will test it. We also have a Data
Protection Act, which I will hide behind.
• May 2008, Jones asked Mann: "Can you delete any emails you may
have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise.... Can you also
email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email
address."
31. With all of this seeming subterfuge and pretense, you
don’t have to be Eliot Ness to wonder if there might
be a conspiracy
33. Hockey Stick and Climategate Fallout
• Michael Mann
– continues to defend his work
– critics continue to attack it
• IPCC assessments every 6 years:
– 3rd in 2001 reflected Mann’s Hockey Stick graph
– 4th in 2007 Hockey Stick gone but “Hide the Decline” in effect
– 5th in 2013 more nuanced and carefully composed
• The “Hockey Stick” and “Climategate”
concerns may have been well-meant attempts
to focus attention on a looming global
concern, but likely unintentionally hurt their
central cause by fueling skepticism
34. Richard Muller, PHD
- Professor Emeritus, Department of Physics
at University of California at Berkeley
- Sr. Scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National
Lab and Institute for Nuclear and Particle
Astrophysics
- Columnist for MIT’s Technology Review
If you are concerned about global warming (as I
am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide
may contribute (as I do) to global warming, then
you should still agree that we are much better off
for having broken the hockey stick. Misinformation
can do real harm.
37. • Seasonal Flux – Vegetative Uptake into plant mass each summer
• There is no question Carbon Dioxide Concentrations in the
Atmosphere are rapidly increasing due to Anthropogenic
Activities
46. NOAA Adjustments to Temperature
Data Sets Have Drawn Criticism
• Reduced station count favoring
urban sites
• Change Point algorithm used
to smooth data
• Discontinued Heat Island
Adjustments
• FILNET: “creates” data to fill
gaps, extrapolated from nearby
stations
47. Remember Physicist Dr. Richard Muller?
• Gladly Broke the Hockey Stick
– “Science dictates data should be
openly and freely shared
– “If a scientist does not share his
data, source code or methods,
never trust their work!”
• Muller realized there was a need
for trustworthy temperature data
• Founded Berkley Earth in 2010
48.
49.
50. So Is the Earth Warming?
Baseline temperature is mean of a fairly flat period from 1951 - 1980
51. Over the Past Century Mean Summer Temperature
has Increased about 0.8 deg C (1.5 deg F)
53. But What About the Decline?
• Dr. Muller: “You cannot consider climate
objectively over a window as short as 10 – 15
years.”
• Dr. Muller: “When
climbing stairs, if you
reach a platform you
might be tempted to
think you are at the
top until you pull back
and consider the larger
picture”
54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is not a
Natural System but makes an Especially
Analogous Parallel
There have been
temporal plateaus
and declines but
when viewed
objectively over
the long term the
trend has been
upwards
55. You cannot “feel” 1.5 degrees of mean
annual temperature difference over
100 years but the effects can be seen
in critical areas
70. Water Resource Planning
• Water systems design against droughts
• But historical stream flow records are usually
limited to < 100 years
• We have to recognize that this is a very short
representative period
• Planning only for the worse drought “on
record” may be short sighted
71. • BYU Professor Matt Bekker uses
Dendrochronology to Reconstruct Streamflow
Records for Weber River in Utah
• 16 year drought in the 1700s
72. Fallen Leaf Lake
• About 200 feet above Lake Tahoe on the Southside
below Mount Tellac
• 100 foot tall trees stand preserved underwater as
evidence of several mega droughts
83. Conclusions to Part 1
• Climate Science scandals fuel skepticism
• Special interests affect policy formulation
• Climate science is a young field and there is a
lot we do not understand yet
• However, Man’s imprint on the earth is
undeniable:
– CO2 levels higher than anytime in the past 5M
years
– CO2 levels have only risen faster than this before in
conjunction with volcanic mass extinction events
84. Conclusions to Part 1
• Other GGs are also rising (CH4 ,CFCs, etc.)
• Earth is Currently Warming
– (1.5 deg. F over the past century)
• Sea Level is Rising due ice melt & thermal
expansion of oceans
• This will have Disruptive Impacts on Coastal
Regions
• Rates of Change are Slow
• Climate Change cannot be seen year-to-year
but must be studied over decades
85. Conclusions
• Come back after a short break for Part 2 and I
will explain some Adaptive Management
Planning initiatives at the Peace River
Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority