China has multiple strategic reasons to consider invading Taiwan: 1) Taiwan's democratic system threatens China's authoritarian rule and its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. 2) Taiwan is a global leader in semiconductor production, and China's reliance on Taiwanese chips exacerbates its trade deficit. 3) Invading Taiwan would allow China to gain control over a crucial segment of the global semiconductor supply chain and industry.

1. 1
TPG H2 FY23 Results – Demystified
Aug 2023

2. 2
Attribution
Licensed Under
This work is Licensed Under
No Derivative 4.0 International
Disclaimer: This presentation acknowledges and gives credit to the work of others. Necessary validation have
been taken to avoid copyright infringement. Any instances that violate terms can be removed when notified.
All discussed thoughts & opinions are my own & not that of my employer or other parties.

3. 3
Key Message
Why China Wants to Invade Taiwan
• China has been threatening to invade Taiwan, claiming it as part of its One China policy due to cultural and historical reasons.
• Being a highly authoritarian country with minimal democratic values, it cannot afford to have an island nation located merely 150
kilometres away from its mainland that practices democracy.
• Taiwan holds a prominent position as the global leader in the semiconductor industry, with TSMC as its flagship company. Today
Semiconductors are crucial components in the defence, space, and technology sectors.
• China's trade deficit is exacerbated by its reliance on Taiwan for advanced semiconductors, prompting it to seek industry
dominance and supply chain control.
• The US, which has a $400Bn trade deficit with China, is preventing China from acquiring advanced semiconductor technology,
fuelling further tension. Therefore, China has multiple reasons to invade, including cultural, political, and economic factors.
• Analysts argue that the US is feeling the pressure because they facilitated China's ascent as a manufacturing hub and are now
seeking to diversify supply chains to mitigate risks in the post-COVID era.
• China's trade deficit with Australia is being driven by continued demand for its resources, while Australia post-COVID, is
diversifying its import and export portfolio.
Taiwan, 156
Australia, 64
Brazil, 47.6
Switzerland, 42.1
Saudi Arabia, 40.4
Russia, 38.8
S.Korea, 38.0
Top 7 Countries with China’s Trade Deficit in $Bn
China’s Taiwan Dilemma
Economic, Cultural or Political
USA, 400
HongKong, 287
Netherlands, 104.9
India, 100.2
UK, 60
Vietnam, 59.2
Poland, 56.4
Top 7 Countries with China’s Trade Surplus in $Bn
Source: World bank, IMF, The Print, RBI, AFR, RBA

4. 4
4
India's Conundrum
G7/20 to BRICS (+6)
GDP
China
$17.9 Tn BRICS
$25.5 Tn
ROW
$30.8 Tn
G7
$43.8 Tn
USA
$25.5 Tn
India
$3.4 Tn
Key Message
India is playing its part in the BRICS because of the following
• India's trust in China has eroded due to 4 skirmishes at the Northern Border. India is wary of China's growing clout in the new
world order. While BRICS is economically China-centric, it is ensuring that it doesn't become a Unipolar bloc in Asia and another
India-bashing group like OIC used to be. India can no longer rely on Russia as it has been forced to become China's ally because of
sanctions.
• By consenting to an expansion, it is mounting pressure on China and other relevant parties to acknowledge its deserving position
in the UN's Permanent Five + Group and refrain from raising objections.
• Besides India's trade deficit with the New BRICS being around 69%, prompting a need for effective management. In response,
India is seeking to promote the use of local currency in trade transactions, thereby reducing its reliance on the USD and
conserving Forex reserves. Furthermore, UAE has agreed to do business in Indian Rs, a significant development in this regard.
• In light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the economic impacts of COVID-19, the New BRICS bloc, which now includes
Argentina, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, is expected to have a combined GDP of $29.14 Tn. The New BRICS bloc
has a population of 3.6 Bn, which accounts for 51.6% of the world's population, while G7 has a population of only 0.8 Bn, which
accounts for only 10.9% of the world's population.
-48%
-69%
-53%
-31%
-100%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
BRICS ROW
BRICS New
BRICS
India's Trade Deficit with BRICS & New BRICS (+6)
New
BRICS
$29.1 Tn
Source: World bank, IMF, The Print, RBI

5. 5
War and Inflation
Recession In US – Likely (?)
• Key Message
• The US economy is adversely affected by inflation and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
• The Federal Reserve's actions in intervening in the economy have been resolute, and they are currently exploring methods to pre-
empt a potential economic downturn.
• It is worth noting that the credit rating agency Fitch has downgraded its rating from AAA to AA+ for only the second time in
history. This decision comes amidst growing concerns about mounting debt which is heading northwards of 120% of GDP.

6. 6
Economic Outlook
Indictors Australia – FY 2024
• Solid fundamentals for the Australian economy
• Low unemployment, low underemployment, high participation rates
• Strong exports and non-mining investment
• Immigration providing a structural tailwind
• Inflation and economy moderating due to higher interest rates
• Economic growth and per capita consumption resilient but slowing
• Households taking practical steps to adjust –low arrears and hardship requests
• Wages rising but real household disposable income falling
• Downside risks remain as we near the end of the current tightening cycle
• Further impact to be felt from cash rate increases
• Lagged impact −Potential for services inflation to become entrenched
• Continued global uncertainty –Australia well positioned
• Key Sectors going through Growth
• Resources, Mining, Oil & Gas
• Education
• Entertainment, leisure & tourism
• Retail trade - Household spending remains high despite cost-of-living pressures
• Sectors facing Headwinds
• Construction Sector remains challenged
• Commercial Property
• Key Message
• Australian Economy is Strong and Stable.
• GDP to grow by 1.4% and will accelerate in 2025.
• Interest Rates will head southwards in Q2.
• Commodity, Minerals, Tourism and Education driving the growth.
Source: CBA, RBA

7. 7
Telecom Industry
Key Trends - Australia 2023
Key Trends
• Market Size: $33.5 Bn.
• Recovering since COVID.
• Technology Change: High.
• Life Cycle: Matured.
• Regulation: Heavy
• Key Players $Bn+ in Rev: Telstra, Optus, TPG, NBN
• The expected industry's growth rate of 3.8% in 2024 is modest
and is struggling to generate ROI.
• COC is heading northwards of 5%.
• Avg P/E has moved up from 13 to 17.
• Digitisation of core services has commoditised it hence fierce
completion.
• The Era of organic growth is declining rapidly.
• Decentralisation and Reducing Information Asymmetry are
used to achieve inorganic growth in business.
• Fixed business is consolidating.
• Mobility providers are experiencing margin erosion as
consumers shift from post-paid to prepaid plans. 5G (inc.
private) and Fixed Wireless are growth areas.
• The telecom technology stack has evolved from being
hardware centric to software centric.
• The next generation of growth is anticipated from technology
enablers like Connectivity (5x data, from 21 to 40 devices at
home), 5G & Private 5G, IoT, Network Edge, SD-WAN, SDN,
and Hybrid Cloud.
High
Low
Revenue
Volatility
High
Hazardous Rollercoaster
Blue Chip
Stagnant
Low 5 Year Annualised Growth
Global
Industry
Telstra
FY23
NBN Co
FY23
Optus
FY23
TPG
FY 22

8. 8
High
Low
Revenue
Volatility
High
Hazardous Rollercoaster
Stagnant
Low 5 Year Annualised Growth
Key Message
• The merger with Vodafone was a necessary remedy to the NBN, but
it hasn’t lived up to expectations. TPG’s plan for the Vodafone merger
was to do what it has always done – cram lots of users through a
fixed asset base to raise profits. It hasn’t worked out that way.
• Selling off the wholesale Fibre Business can be likened to
relinquishing a fortress, where the installation of the fibre requires
minimal capital and new customers translate to higher margins and
earnings, with the capacity for expansion being remarkable. This
decision can be interpreted as a demonstration of TPG's weakness,
rather than one that emanates from a position of strength.
• The business cannot sustain an expensive multi-brand strategy as it
shifts towards a pure RSP play. Hence abandoning it.
• The emerging trend of choosing Prepaid mobile over post-paid is
reemphasised (MVNO Play). Post paid ARPU increased primarily
from price rises in Jan and Feb.
• The Mobile network is underutilised with just 3.2Mn postpaid mobile
users compared to 6Mn for Optus and 9Mn for Telstra. This surplus
capacity enticed them to go for the MOCN deal with Telstra.
• FW is cannibalising NBN and ADSL subscribers and improving its
margin (bypassing NBN). About 0.5Mn premises are on FW. This is a
growth area with an addressable market of around 20% of the Mobile
Segment. 5G rollout of 3K sites by the EOY and another 5K sites by
2025. 1 site requires 50 weeks to provision.
• With NBN EE's market-leading position in E&G, business is
experiencing stickiness, incremental revenue and higher margin
managed services (SD–WAN).
• Learnings from New Zealand in the Mobile segment are acting as a
guiding force.
• IT Transformation (like single billing) has reduced impediments in
P2O, O2A and RA, enabling agility in their GTM strategy.
Challenges :
• Sustain in a pure RSP play (consumer centric)
• Mobile Business and Towers
• The multi-operator core network (MOCN) sharing
deal with Telstra for 10 years, will give TPG
access to around 3700 Telstra cellular towers in
regional Australia and on urban fringes. Rejected
by ACCC.
Source: TPG, IBIS, NBN Co, AFR, Gov.au
TPG Results – Aug 23
Key Takeaways – HY23
Blue Chip
FY 22 TPG

9. 9
Subbrands
Endorsed
Brands
House
of
Brands
Corporate Product
Product Corporate
Product
Branded
Housed
Corporate
Ease of Operation
Role of Corporate Brand
Same
Identity
Different
Identity
No
Connect
Shadow
Endorser
Co
Drivers
Master
Brand as
Driver
TPG
Future
?
Source : Brand Relationship Spectrum by David Aaker & Erich Joachimsthaler
TPG
Today
TPG – Today
Brand Mgmt - Changes Ahead
Key Message
• The business
cannot sustain
an expensive
multi-brand
strategy as it
shifts towards
a pure RSP
play. Hence
relinquishing
it.
TPG
Future
?
iinet
TPG AAPT
Voda
Lebara Felix

10. 10
TPG Today – Aug 23
E&G – HY 23
Key Message
• EE, FW, and Fast Fibre are driving the growth
in E&G.
• TPG is leading the EE segment.
• TPG and ABB (in SMB) are giving grief to the
Telstra Enterprise DAC segment.
• Healius is a good win because it’s a high
margin and has stickiness.
• Long-term mobile contacts (36 mths) are
impacting all telecom operators, esp. in terms
of inventory turnover, margin erosion and
NWC. TPG is moving away from 3rd party
consumer finance to overcome ITO challenges.
• Note on - HPS as Partner and Competitor
• AWS local Zone in Perth. Brisbane and Adelaide
in future (Reacting to MSFT Telstra Partnership)
• Private LTE (5G) is where TPG is partnering with
AWS.
• Mobile Private Network is in-house and
exploring how to take this to GTM.
• Deploys 1st 5G Private network for a mining
site in NSW. Telstra deployed this a few years
ago in WA.

11. 11 Source: TPG
TPG Today – Aug 23
Segment Performance – HY23

12. 12
TPG Today – Aug 23
HY23 – Market Response
Key Indicators
• Market Cap – 10.10 Bn
• P/B – 0.8
• P/E (Trailing) – 19.82(down, Growth)
• P/E (Forward) – ? (Growth)
• Rev (FY 22) - $5.41 Bn
• Income (FY 22) – 0.513 Bn
Why the Stock Price is Flat ?
• TPG's share price has been flat at $5.47, with a marginal rise of 0.03c after HY23 results on August 24.
• The critical reasons for this are:
• Growth in the Mobile segment because of roaming charges, rationalisation of plans and price increases to combat inflation.
• Growth in FW bypasses NBN and magnifies margin.
• Growth in E&G supplemented by Fibre Fast and EE.
• The expected sale of the wholesale arm, Vision Stream, is seen as a value creator in the short term. In the longer term, TPG will face
severe headwinds to sustain the business because selling a fortress (fibre infra.) on which the business is built is not a good move.
Source: AFR, Motley.com, TPG, UBS

13. 13
TPG – Aug 23
Future is Challenging ?
Source: AFR, Motley.com, TPG, UBS
Key Message
• By focusing on pure RSP play in the fixed access, the company has positioned itself
as a semi-premium player, similar to Virgin Airlines. This strategic approach
enables them to provide cost-efficient services without compromising on customer
service. Hence consolidating all the brands under one umbrella, streamlining their
operations and enhancing their overall efficiency. This is uncharted territory for
TPG as they will face competition from both high-end and low-end players.
• In the Mobile segment, they have an underutilised network, hence MVNO play
will rise, and they may start exploring other network-sharing deals in the future.
• TPG is preparing itself for a challenging future.

14. 14
Disclaimer: This presentation acknowledges and gives credit to the work of others. Necessary validation have
been taken to avoid copyright infringement. Any instances that violate terms can be removed when notified. All
discussed thoughts & opinions are my own & not that of my employer or other parties.
For further information, please contact:
Name: Vishal
Address: Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia
Mobile: 0468 675 566
Blog: https://blog.sharmavishal.com/