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China economic growth sets pace for securing 
energy ressources for the 21st century 
Confidential, January 2014
Summary 
Energy bottlenecks are driving resources management strategies 
Moving abroad to acquire key IP or resources is n...
Presentation 
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy 
• Energy issues represent a key challenge ...
China is likely to account for one third of the expected energy 
growth in the next 20 years 
Page 4 
Global Energy Consum...
But China GDP has been steadily decelerating in the last 4 
years 
Page 7 
60 000 
50 000 
40 000 
30 000 
20 000 
10 000 ...
China energy needs will continue to grow as China 
economy develops 
China installed electricity needs 
forecast scenarios...
Presentation 
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy 
• Energy issues represent a key challenge ...
Energy strategic planning including moving abroad is 
mainly based on scenarios methodology 
Page 10 
Environmental 
Prote...
Managing a large portfolio of strategic ressources worldwide 
means to handle a great diversity of risks to optimize retur...
Even smart technological carbon neutral choice do bear 
unexpected catastrophic cost at times 
Page 13 
USA 108 
Canada 18...
Presentation 
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy 
• Energy issues represent a key challenge ...
Leadership and risk management excellence are high 
yield assets to succeed in external growth 
Page 18 
External growth 
...
We favor integrated M&A approach with emphasis on both 
strategy and finance decision criteria for maximum impact 
Page 22...
Presentation 
• Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy 
• Energy issues represent a key challenge ...
So far China have invested over USD 780 billion abroad with 
energy and metal accounting for USD 500 billion (64%) 
Key re...
2 
1,8 
1,6 
1,4 
1,2 
Top resources China largest deals in 2013 investors 2008-2013 
Bn 
USD, 1 
0,8 
0,6 
0,4 
0,2 
0 
M...
Deal background Deal story line 
Tianqi swiftly moved with a better but finally creative offer to get the deal 
Page 27 
“...
Next steps 
Page 29 
Focus full energy on best opportunities 
• A well prepared deal maximizes success 
chances (risk / re...
Leading a world of change, together
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China new energy (abstract) - Maverlinn

This Maverlinn presentation on China energy perspective was delivered in January 2014 in Beijing, China by Olivier Coispeau, Maverlinn Europe founder.

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China new energy (abstract) - Maverlinn

  1. 1. China economic growth sets pace for securing energy ressources for the 21st century Confidential, January 2014
  2. 2. Summary Energy bottlenecks are driving resources management strategies Moving abroad to acquire key IP or resources is needed Success is based on pre-ops and post-ops management Disclaimer : this presentation was created for the exclusive use of our client who is entitled to use it for its own internal needs and further discuss with Maverlinn officers. This presentation must not be shared with third parties without the written prior consent of Maverlinn. This presentation is not fully understandable, complete and reliable without further analyses and oral explanations. Page 2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Energy consumption in China is directly correlated to GDP growth China has key assets to implement smart and successful energy policies
  3. 3. Presentation • Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy • Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future • Leads for possible solutions and options Page 3
  4. 4. China is likely to account for one third of the expected energy growth in the next 20 years Page 4 Global Energy Consumption Source : Total, Shell Comments : • Primary energy demand 2030 vs 2010: +33%, CAGR 1.4% • 90% of the global growth from non- OECD countries − China 33% − India 26% 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (in EJ / Year) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 EJ/Year USA - Canada Europe China India Latin America MEA Others IMB
  5. 5. But China GDP has been steadily decelerating in the last 4 years Page 7 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source : World Bank GDP GDP growth China maintains its 2013 GDP growth target at around 7.5% to leave some leeway for economic restructuring…
  6. 6. China energy needs will continue to grow as China economy develops China installed electricity needs forecast scenarios CAGR : 10,6% / year CAGR : 4,5% / year (source : State Grid) 622 713 790 874 930 1450 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 Page 8 Source : China statistical yearbook, UPS Monitor, NEB, EPRI, State Grid CAGR : 3,3% / year (source : NEB)
  7. 7. Presentation • Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy • Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future • Leads for possible solutions and options Page 9
  8. 8. Energy strategic planning including moving abroad is mainly based on scenarios methodology Page 10 Environmental Protection Energy Security Energy policies in the long term rely on complex optimizations of sometimes contradictory results in the short term Economic Prosperity Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Energy scenario strategy Three key driving forces : • Energy security • Environmental protection • Economic prosperity Typical explored scenarios : • Watch and wait • Shared urgency • Leaders and laggards
  9. 9. Managing a large portfolio of strategic ressources worldwide means to handle a great diversity of risks to optimize returns Page 12 Energy investment strategy Return : • Hurdle rate • Objective • Complex play Risk : • Typology • Mini-Max • Volatility Return Risk Hurdle rate Maxi
  10. 10. Even smart technological carbon neutral choice do bear unexpected catastrophic cost at times Page 13 USA 108 Canada 18 Mexico 2 France 59 UK 19 Brazil 2 Germany 17 Other EU 70 Pakistan 2 Iran 2 Argentina 2 South Africa 2 Japan 55 Russia 32 South Korea 21 India 20 China 13 Global power mix (electricity prod. est.) : Coal 40.9% Gas 21.3% Hydro 15.9% Nuclear 13.5% Oil 5.5% Others 2.9% The total cost of the 1986 Chernobyl (Belarus) accident is estimated USD 235 billion of economic damage (UNDP) The cost of the 2011 Fukushima (Japan) accident is estimated USD 250 billion of economic damage (Japan Center for Economic Research)
  11. 11. Presentation • Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy • Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future • Leads for possible solutions and options Page 17
  12. 12. Leadership and risk management excellence are high yield assets to succeed in external growth Page 18 External growth Leadership Risk Management – Systematic approach – Research and know your targets – First call status – Get culture settings right – Practical approach – Adaptability and determination – Momentum, timing – Post acquisition skills Target A Target C Acquirer Target B
  13. 13. We favor integrated M&A approach with emphasis on both strategy and finance decision criteria for maximum impact Page 22 Abroad Strategy Integra -tion Business Impact M&A In China We emphasize multicultural strategic finance as our distinctive footprint, meaning we integrate M&A, culture and strategy We serve industry leaders on impact M&A and also advise on preparation and integration to optimize success • We rely on an international network in China, in Europe and beyond • Most of our customers are Fortune 500, dealing with complex growth issues
  14. 14. Presentation • Economic growth will continue to fuel higher demand for energy • Energy issues represent a key challenge for the future • Leads for possible solutions and options Page 24
  15. 15. So far China have invested over USD 780 billion abroad with energy and metal accounting for USD 500 billion (64%) Key regions for investment : • USA : n°1 but atypical portfolio, including $ 20 Bn in FIG and $ 16 Bn in energy • Australia : energy $ 24.5 Bn, minerals $ 35 Bn • Canada : energy $ 34.5 Bn, minerals $ 3.3 Bn • Dominant regions : Page 25 − MEA, by far − South America 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Energy Metals Tranportation Financial Inst. Real estate Agriculture Technology Others USD, Bn Energy and metals account for 62% : • Energy : USD 370 billion (47.4%) • Metals : USD 115 billion (14.7%) Source : Heritage Foundation
  16. 16. 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 Top resources China largest deals in 2013 investors 2008-2013 Bn USD, 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Minerals Queensland Curtis LNG project Brow se LNG project Talison Lithium Alumina Focus 30 25 20 15 10 5 28.6 China accounted for ~42% of all foreign acquisitions in Australia in 2013 Page 26 Country Deal Case : Australia 0 China Canada Japan USA UK Source : The Australian
  17. 17. Deal background Deal story line Tianqi swiftly moved with a better but finally creative offer to get the deal Page 27 “Strategic“ Case : Tianqi Ind. (China) – Talison (Australia) • Tianqi was in competition with Rockwood Holdings, which made a lower offer at C$ 724 million. Tianqi’s offer was then prefered • In March 2013, Tianqi got the Australian Fed nod for C$ 848 million • Tianqi started to own 19,9% of the capital and clearance to later acquired the remaining 80% • In December 2013, Tianqi and Rockwood announced a 51/49 joint venture for the acquisition of Talison • Talison Lithium is a 25 years old mining company and producer of lithium, producing 350,000 t of lithium products every year • The company is listed on the TSX (Canada) and has two key mining sites in Australia and Chile
  18. 18. Next steps Page 29 Focus full energy on best opportunities • A well prepared deal maximizes success chances (risk / return / integration) • A trusted and expert M&A team makes a difference on the field • A swift execution significantly enhance the deal profile • The integration investment management team needs to be quickly empowered
  19. 19. Leading a world of change, together

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