Theory of Change: Development and Implementation of Tanzania Livestock Master Plan Presented by Joseph Karugia during a SAPLING Initiative inception and TLMP ToC Validation workshop held on 17 March 2022 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

1. Better lives through livestock
Theory of Change: Development and
Implementation of Tanzania Livestock
Master Plan
Joseph Karugia
Principal Scientist - Agricultural Economist and Policy Expert
PIL/ILRI
SAPLING Inception and TLMP ToC Validation Workshop
17 March 2022, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

2. KLMP Time plan
Introduction…
• MoL&F, ILRI and Dalberg collaboration to support
implementation and M&E of TLMP
• Building capacity of Private Sector Desk
• Prioritization of investments by public and private sectors
• Development of a monitoring, learning, and evaluation
framework
• Advocacy, engagement and coalition-building
• Need to articulate a theory of change of TLMP
• map out the expected pathways or links between
interventions and intended impacts, and develop performance
indicators thank link to ASDP II M&E frameworks and CAADP
BR

3. KLMP Time plan
Introduction contd …
• LMP provides the evidence-base and empirical guidance to
the government, private sector, and development partners
on where best to invest in the livestock sector to achieve
national development goals, CAADP, SDGS
• baseline analysis of the livestock sector
• Long-term Livestock Strategy (15 years)
• Value chain specific investment road maps
• “by year 2025 there should be a livestock sector, which to a large extent shall be
commercially run, modern and sustainable, using improved and highly productive livestock
to ensure food security, improved income for households and the nation while conserving
the environment”.

4. 4
Tanzania LMP Theory of Change
Year 1-2
Outputs
• Increased productivity at
animal/household/region/
country level as a result of
better feed, less disease
and genetic improvements
• Reduction in post-harvest
losses
• Increased livestock
production and supply of
animal source foods
• Improved quality of
livestock products
• Increased livestock trade
• Increased income at the
household level
Short-term
outcomes
Medium-term
outcomes Development
impacts
sphere of influence
sphere of control
sphere of interest
• Chronic
underinvestment in
livestock development
in Tanzania hence
public and private
sector investors and
development partners
need support to make
the investments to
transform the livestock
sector
• Sector’s slow growth
undermines its ability
to support the
livelihoods of millions
of the poor (50% of
Tanzania population)
who depend on
livestock for their food
security, nutrition, and
incomes
Challenge
Activities/
Inputs
Increased livestock
contribution to GDP
Poverty reduction
Industrial and manufacturing
sector (based on livestock raw
materials)
Food security and nutrition
Exports and foreign exchange
earnings
• Capacity of local experts
enhanced
• More and better-quality
investments by public and
private sectors and
development partners
• Alignment of public, private
and development partner
investments
• Targeted interventions by
location, commodity, value
chain
• Change in existing policies,
laws, and regulations
• New policies, laws, and
regulations
>Year 6
National
development
goals
and
Vision
2025
• Capacity building of local
experts and public sector
officials
• Baseline analysis of the
livestock sector
• Identification of priority
value chains and
technological/policy/
institutional intervention
options
• Ex-ante impact evaluation
of interventions
• Building a coalition of
change
• Training modules and
reports
• Evidence-based Livestock
Sector Analysis Report
• Evidence-based Long-term
Livestock Sector Strategy
• Evidence-based
documentation of priority
value chains and value
chain specific investment
roadmaps
• Documentation of TLMP
implementation modalities
and monitoring, evaluation
and learning plan
Year 2-4 Year 4-6
Employment opportunities for
men, women, and youth
Environmental sustainability-
GHG emissions/climate
change related impacts

5. 5
TLMP

6. THANK YOU