Moore's Law and the Evolution of Electronics

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© Ian Phillips 2020
https://ianp24.blogspot.com
They're not making smaller atoms!
... The future for Moore’s Law (after 60yrs)
Seminar at ...
Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics
University of Liverpool, UK.
Revised and Packaged for Virtual - Jan21
First Presented - 5mar20
Prof. Ian Phillips CEng, FIET, FIMA, SMIEEE
Retired 2017 - Technology Consultant & Philosopher
Formerly: Principal Staff Eng’r. @ ARM Ltd, UK
Member of Council at the IET
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Visiting Prof @ ... Formerly Visiting Prof @ ...

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1830: The Beginning of Electronics
§ Electronic: Electricity used for other-than power
§ The Relay - Several Inventors in the 1830’s
§ The First Electronic Amplifier (Electromagnetic)
§ 1837: The Electrical Telegraph ...
Wheatstone (Scientist) and Cooke (Engineer)

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1891: The Strowger Automatic Telephone Exchange
... Electromagnetic ‘Computation’ - The Telephone System from 1891-1978 (87yr!)

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§ 1885: Magnetic Amplifiers (133yr ago) § 1904/6: Valve Amplifiers (110yr ago) ...
§ Diode - Fleming 1904, Triode - Forest 1906
Magnetic Amplifiers, then Vacuum Tubes
Aircraft MagAmp c1951
Core saturation ‘turns-off’ inductors
Modulating the flow of electrons
in a vacuum

5
Vacuum Tubes (aka Valves) in 2020
... Relays, Magnetic Amplifiers and Valves are still in use today in applications where their
characteristics offer a functional advantage over ‘more-recent’ technologies!

6
Concept -vs- Product
"Scientists investigate that which already is ... .
... Engineers create that which has never been."
- Albert Einstein
... He used this to explain that he was a Scientist!
Scientists – Discover Science (Concepts)
Strive to understand and manipulate the proprieties of the universe
Engineers – Exploit Science (Products)
Create Actual Solutions to meet Societal Need (Business opportunity) ...
... Use Available-Science (Technology)

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§ William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain
§ Demonstrated Solid-State Electronics (Not in Vacuum) ...
1947: The Transistor Concept ... (just 73yr ago)
FirstTransfer-Resistor (Point-Contact)
First Junction Transistor
i
i
C
B
E

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§ Different Architectures emerge, but Same concept.
§ More Producible and more Robust.
§ But still £’s per transistor ... So had to be used wisely!
Just 4yrs later (1951)... the First Transistor Product
1954:The OC71
Transistor Architectural Symbols

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1957/8: The Integrated Circuit Concept ...
§ 1957: Jean Hoerni (Fairchild)
The Planar Transistor
§ 1958: Jack Kilby (Texas Instr.)
The concept of the Integrated Circuit
(3 components)
...The PlanarTransistor Architecture made Implementation
of the Integrated Circuit possible
The Planar Transistor Architecture

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Just 3yr later (1960)... the First Integrated Circuit Product
§ 1957: Robert Noyce founded
Fairchild to make the planar 2N687 ...
§ But as soon as he saw the possibilities
of Integrated Circuits changed the plans
§ 1960: First Commercial IC produced
§ Binary (Digital), a Natural Architecture
for Boolean Logic
§ State Machines and ultimately CPUs
§ Digital Memory
§ Less efficient use of transistors than
analogue ...
... But a scalable architecture
... 1968: Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel to make Memory ICs
Fairchild: “Flip-Flop”
4 transistors, 2 resistors
$120.
4mm

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1965: Moore’s Law
§ “Moore's Law” was coined by Carver Mead in 1970, from Gordon Moore's article in
Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965 "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits“.
“The complexity for minimum component
costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor
of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this
rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase.
Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more
uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will
not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That
means by 1975, the number of components per
integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I
believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single
wafer”
In retrospect Moore’s Law didn’t START in 1965 ... It Started much earlier in 1830!
Planar Solid-State Electronics have been the Maintaining-Technology since 1958 ...

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1965: Integrating 30-40 components – Digital Electronics
§ Transistor Transistor Logic (TTL) - Bipolar
§ Digital design (Boolean Mathematics) ...
In 1965 at Fairchild, Moore was designing ICs with ~80 components ...
...And based his observations on earlier 30-40 component ICs!

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1970: Large-Scale Integrated Circuit (LSI) ... Digital Electronics
§ 300Tr - 75 Digital Gates (Boolean Math)
§ 74181 bit-slice 4-bit ALU...
§ 16 Logic & 16 Arithmetic Fn on 4bit operands.
§ AND, OR, XOR, A OR NOT B, A + B, A - B,
(A OR B) + (A AND NOT B).
§ Can be paralleled on a PCB ‘today’ ...
... Or 4x in a next generation chip (Moore’s Law)
... A Digital Architecture (Gates) is largely Process Technology and Geometry Independent!
... You don’t have to totally re-design it every New Process Generation (Productivity)

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300 Tr. IC’s Enabled the Mainframe Computer Products
§ Early 1970’s
§ Using 74’ Series TTL logic
family (Still available today)
§ Only affordable by bigger
commercial operations
§ Mostly used by Accounts Dpt.
(Naturally numeric application)
§ Universities frequently had
one one or two for Research
§ Electronic Designers didn’t
start to use them till later in
the decade
...The power available was ~1MIP, and it was shared amongst many using ‘Batch’ schemes

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1971: The Intel 4004 4-bit Integrated Processor Chip
§ Ist non-memory chip made by Intel
§ 2,300 Tr. Dynamic PMOS Logic, 740KHz, 16DIL
§ Designed for the Busicom Calculator

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10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
Approximate
Process
Geometry
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip
(M)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law
Moore’s Law: The Personal Computer Years ...
Transistor/PM
(K)
1975
~1,000 Tr/Chip
10Ktr
... 10 Ktr/chip brought the Computer to The Person
200Ktr
ARM
Chip

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1987: ARM 32bit RISC Processor Chip – 35kGate (140kTr)
4-bit ALU
§ ARM1 32bit RISC Processor Chip
§ 32bit data-path, 24bit address, 8MHz
§ Designed for the Archimedes Desk-Top Computer
§ A Computer in every school ...

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1991: ARM RISC-Processor IP Core
§ System Processor Chip Implementation ...
§ 1um CMOS Die has ~1MTr capacity
§ Whole ARM 7 Macro-Cell is a small-part of chip
§ Customer-Added Peripheral Circuits to
differentiate their product
ARM7 Core
DMA
Par.
Port
PCMCIA UART (2)
Int’t.
Contr.
Memory
Interface
Timers
W’Dog
Arb’tr.
Misc.
ARM 7, 32-bit RISC Processor Macro-Cell (50kgate, 200ktr)
... In 20yrs the 74181 4-bit ALU had become a tiny part
of a 32-bit RISC Processor; which in turn is a small part
of a typical chip today ... Moore’s Law in action!

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10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
Approximate
Process
Geometry
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip
(M)
Moore’s Law: The Smart System Years ...
Transistor/PM
(K)
X
20B Transistors for €5
1Mtr
... 200,000x Functionality in 25yr (20,000x Tr. & 10x Freq.)

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2012: Moore’s Law puts 1BTransistors into Production ...
NB: The Tegra 3 is similar to the Apple A4
NVIDIA’sTegra 3 CPU Chip (~1Btr, 28nm)
... A further ~10x Functional Density due to Multi-Layer Metals!

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Designer Productivity Became the Issue
§ The Product Possibilities offered by utilising the Billions of Affordable and Aesthetically
Encapsulate-able Transistors is Commercially Beguiling!
SanDisk: 19nm 128Gb flash memory chip
~160,000,000,000 (160B) nv transistors
(NV Memory is analogue and much denser than logic)
§ BUT if you can’t design your chip it in a reasonable
time with a reasonable team and within at a
reasonable budget ... Then it is not available!
§ Chip Design requires huge amounts of Reuse of Design,
Technology and Methods
§ Even Professional & Military Applications can’t afford clean-
sheet design any more!
... So Companies like ARM Ltd make Designer-
Productivity Products for use in the Design-Phase of
Electronic-System Products Life-Cycle ...

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10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
Approximate
Process
Geometry
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip
(M)
Transistor/PM
(K)
1Mt
1,800py
8,500py
100py
“Productivity Gap”
... Without >90% Reuse, today’s Electronic Systems would be Un-Producible !
Moore’s Law: The Designer Productivity Years ...
Global Teams
Local Teams
Small Team
Single Designer
Expertise Reuse
HW&SW Reuse
Some Reuse
Clean Sheet
“Verification Gap”

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ARM CPU/GPUs are Software-Engines ...
... A range with different performance sweet-spots for different application domains
About 50MTr
About
50KTr

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... ARM supplies around 24 Processors in 6 Families ...
... Processors optimised to be used Alone or in Combination to best-fit the Application

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... With CoreLink for Heterogeneous Multi-Processing ...
... Platform Models and Development Systems to help the customer develop their Product

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Physical IP
– The process-specific
logic-blocks of the chip
ARM is a System-Design Productivity Product ...
... It enables End-Products Companies (Apple, Tesla, Samsung, etc) to create
products with ‘Intelligence’ in them, in reasonable time and effort.
Early software
development on
Virtual Platforms
Power Mgmt
Bluetooth
Cellular Modem
WiFi
SIM
GPS
Flash Controller
Touchscreen
& Sensor Hub
Camera
Apps Processor

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But it was Delivered by Global Teams working in their Expert Domains ...
§ Transistor and Process Architectures
§ Photolithography Lenses, Masks and Photo-Chemistry
§ Manufacturing Machinery and Metrology Tools
§ Precision Handling (Alignment and Control) and Robotics
§ Process and Environment Control
§ Understanding of Physics
§ Use of more Elements
§ Better Process Modelling
§ EDA
... All working to Shrink Transistors to Half Their Area every 18-24mth
Moor’s Law Guided Exponential Density Increase for 60yrs
Apple: A7 Chip, 10 Layer Metal
ASML: EUV 13.6nm Stepper ($100m)
A.Assenov: Atomic-Level Process Modelling
Simple Planar (2D) Transistor

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...Transistors Getting Ever Smaller, But Not the Atoms !
... So is this the end for Moore’s Law? Or just the start of the end ?!
90nm
28nm
14nm
7nm
130nm
§ Difficulty making nm
scale Structures on chip …
§ Major changes to Transistor
Architecture and Photolithography
§ Sharp Increase in Process Complexity and Cost
§ Significantly Reduced Yield and Reliability
§ Statistical nature of Atoms showing through ...
§ Makes Transistor electrical characteristics randomly
variable; Significantly Increasing Design Complexity
§ Theoretically impossible to make a chip where all
transistors work!
§ Power, Speed and Cost
benefit of scaling stopped in
2005 at 100nm (Dennard Scaling)
§ Silicon Crystal Lattice ~ 0.54nm
§ Today’s (2017) Transistor Process ~20nm ...
§ Already Seriously Difficult
§ Opinion is 10 or 7nm to be the smallest Ever!
§ End of ‘Planar’ Scaling in next few years !?

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2019: Scaling Not Dead Yet ...
...TSMC and Samsung announced they have climbed one more rung of
Moore’s Law Ladder ...Their 5nm process is now in “Risk Production”
...The 5nm node is the first to be built using EUV lithography (13.5nm)
... Global Foundries gave up at 14nm (Still make ‘larger’ processes)
... Intel is years behind with its 7nm equivalent process
IEEE Spectrum Jun 2019
ASML: EUV 13.6nm Stepper - $100m each!

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If You Can’t Make Them Smaller; You Can Stack Them Higher!
Planar Transistor - 2D
FIN Transistor - 2.5D
GAA Transistor - 3D
Stacked Transistor – True 3D
(NAND FLASH Memory)
... But uses ever-More Exotic materials and Processes; and ever-Greater Costs
... Which means ever-Bigger Markets required to justify the Investment ($B’s)

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Micron’s 512 Gbit NAND Flash (9nov20)
§ True 3D Integration: 176 layers on top of CMOS ...
§ 5.7 million columns, of 176 charge-trap transistors in series
§ CMOS technology at the base for I.O. & control functions
§ Overall die is ~ 0.02mm thick (1/5 a sheet of paper)
§ Available now!

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3D Integration Today – Packaging (Apple A7 circ. 2013) …
A7 Chip 10 Layer Metal, 28nm, ~1Billion Tr
Processor SOC Die
2 Memory Dies
Glue
Memory
‘Package’
4-Layer Platform
Package’
... Apples latest CPU is the A13 about 4BTr using a TSMC 7nm process

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3D Integration Tomorrow
CEA Feb20: 96-Core.
Chiplet-Based Compute Tile ...
100 Tiles/Board,
10,000 Boards/ HPC System
... Moore’s Law can now be seen for
what it always was, a Law predicting
the growth of Functionality Density.
... Currently being Maintained by
Assembly Technology

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§ General Purpose, Stored Program, Computer - Concept
§ Technology: Electronics (valves), Digital (base 2)
§ Computers available today ... Enhanced by Solid-State Electronic Technology
Data Processing, the Driver of Electronics in 1947 …
Uo.Manchester, BABY (Reconstruction 2000)

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Consumer Drives Technology Dev’t Today
... Products Purchased and Used by Consumers, are chosen for Function not Technology

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... ‘Old’ Markets remain today; but they inherit their Technologies from the Lead Markets!
Business Has Always Driven Technology Evolution
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Main Frame
Mini Computer
Personal Computer
Desktop Internet
Mobile Internet
Millions
of
Units
P
r
o
f
e
s
s
i
o
n
a
l
ç
è
C
o
n
s
u
m
e
r
1st Era
Select work-tasks
2nd Era
Broad-based computing
for specific tasks
3rd Era
Computing as part
of our lives
But End-Customer has evolved from Professional to Consumer

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A Product is a Commercial Opportunity ...
§ Design Engineer: Creates a Viable (Technology) Solution to fulfill a Product Opportunity ...
§ Functional - It has GOT to work
§ Economical - Its cost has got to be less than its value
§ Reproducible - It has to Yield, be Distributable and Reliable (enough)
§ Innovative - It has to be Competitive against Alternative implementations
§ Design Engineer: Is making a Prediction for the future ...
§ Certainty: Deliver as promised
§ Timescales: Deliver when promised
§ Costs: Development & Manufacturing
§ Quality: Dependability and Reliability
§ Design Engineer: Has to use Appropriate Available Technology ...
§ Not the fanciest, newest or optimistically promised (Have to judge between claim and reality)
§ It is about working with others (teams) internally and externally to deliver
§ It is about thinking around and about the problem, and being Ingenious in the solution (Ingineer!)
... The Design Engineer’s role involves life-long Scientific Learning and its Application

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Conclusions
§ For 60yrs the use of the Planar Integrated Circuit (2D) has transformed all our Lives ...
§ Society now expects engineers to deliver regular ‘Performance Improvements’ by using
‘New Technology’ ... (But it know little about what that means!)
§ Fact: Integrated Transistors are approaching the size of atoms, so Moor’s Law must end soon!
So, does that also mean the end of regular ‘Performance Improvements’ ?
§ No: Actually, Moore’s Law has always been a System Density concept ...
It started around 190yrs ago with the first electronic systems
And the Planar Integrated Circuit has been the primary vehicle for the last 60yrs
But it cannot be for the next ...
... Higher Integration Density will come from advances in 3D (Process and Assembly)
... And ‘Functionality in the Box’ (FiB) will become the new metric for Moore’s Law!

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https://ianp24.blogspot.com
Thank you for listening

Moore's Law and the Evolution of Electronics

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