This document summarizes a panel discussion on trends in the commercial real estate finance industry. It discusses current market trends such as declining transaction volumes and shifts among lenders. Regulatory topics covered include potential reforms to Dodd-Frank and the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The panel also examines potential impacts of infrastructure spending, tax reform proposals, and changes to risk retention rules on the commercial real estate finance market. Attendees were surveyed on their preferences for various options for GSE reform related to multifamily lending.
2018 Market Outlook Presentation - Vancouver Victoria Grady
Strategic decisions for an uncertain future:
John Nicola, Chairman & CEO addresses several issues facing
high net worth families:
• How will the Liberals’ tax changes affect financial planning for Canadians?
• How will inflated prices impact future returns?
• Are there best practices for navigating the current environment?
Rob Edel, Chief Investment Officer provides an investment roadmap for 2018:
• After a record-breaking period for the S&P 500, what signs might indicate an economic downturn?
• What current events could most affect the economy and investment strategy?
• What should one make of bitcoin, marijuana stocks, electric vehicles, and other hot topics for the upcoming year?
5 predictions for commercial real estate, risk management and lending in 2018. Presented by Dianne Crocker, EDR Insight in her opening comments at the Environmental Bankers Association Conference in Long Beach, CA on January 15, 2018.
High Real Estate C&I Market presentation feb. 2018William Boben
High Real Estate Group commercial and industrial real estate review of 2017 and forecast for 2018, includes national, regional, and local statistical data with observations from our Lancaster Team.
In the past, there have been concerns about debt, especially if interest rates were to rise. Interest rates are still an issue. The bigger issue is cash flow with govt, business, and personal. Sales and wages could see significant shrinkage as part of the COVID19 recovery.
Debt was a becoming significant issues for many economies pre-covid19. The post covid19 may see even more challenges including the restructuring of debt.
2018 Market Outlook Presentation - Vancouver Victoria Grady
Strategic decisions for an uncertain future:
John Nicola, Chairman & CEO addresses several issues facing
high net worth families:
• How will the Liberals’ tax changes affect financial planning for Canadians?
• How will inflated prices impact future returns?
• Are there best practices for navigating the current environment?
Rob Edel, Chief Investment Officer provides an investment roadmap for 2018:
• After a record-breaking period for the S&P 500, what signs might indicate an economic downturn?
• What current events could most affect the economy and investment strategy?
• What should one make of bitcoin, marijuana stocks, electric vehicles, and other hot topics for the upcoming year?
5 predictions for commercial real estate, risk management and lending in 2018. Presented by Dianne Crocker, EDR Insight in her opening comments at the Environmental Bankers Association Conference in Long Beach, CA on January 15, 2018.
High Real Estate C&I Market presentation feb. 2018William Boben
High Real Estate Group commercial and industrial real estate review of 2017 and forecast for 2018, includes national, regional, and local statistical data with observations from our Lancaster Team.
In the past, there have been concerns about debt, especially if interest rates were to rise. Interest rates are still an issue. The bigger issue is cash flow with govt, business, and personal. Sales and wages could see significant shrinkage as part of the COVID19 recovery.
Debt was a becoming significant issues for many economies pre-covid19. The post covid19 may see even more challenges including the restructuring of debt.
RegTech broadly to include any technology and/or software created to address regulatory challenges and help companies understand regulatory requirements and stay compliant.
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Research conducted by Excelsior Management Solutions, LLC on the coming boom within the real estate and infrastructure sector/Real Estate market predictions.
RegTech broadly to include any technology and/or software created to address regulatory challenges and help companies understand regulatory requirements and stay compliant.
"Originally developed as a two-day training for HUD Choice Neighborhood program grantees, this presentation was delivered to grantees from NeighborWorks America's Catalytic Grant Program. The training presents the rationale and structure of a new approach to comprehensive neighborhood economic development: ""neighborhood business planning."" After walking through the effects and implications of the transition to the knowledge economy, the presentation provides a framework for seeing neighborhoods as dynamic systems whose role in the economy is to develop and deploy assets (e.g., workers, businesses) into larger markets.
An overview of neighborhood types and their unique roles within regions follows, along with data on the typical trajectories of different neighborhood types. Sections on each of five market levers (human capital, clusters, innovation and entrepreneurship, urban growth form and governance) show how the development of neighborhood goals, market analysis, strategies and initiatives can create neighborhoods of opportunity in connection with their region. Local-facing issues like housing, retail and other amenities are examined in relation to their effect on creating neighborhoods of choice that certain populations are attracted to, influencing a neighborhood's type and trajectory. The presentation concludes with an overview of the most comprehensive application of neighborhood business planning to-date: the Greater Chatham Initiative."
Research conducted by Excelsior Management Solutions, LLC on the coming boom within the real estate and infrastructure sector/Real Estate market predictions.
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
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Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
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RMD24 | Retail media: hoe zet je dit in als je geen AH of Unilever bent? Heid...BBPMedia1
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Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
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It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
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Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
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HR recruiter services offer top talents to companies according to their specific needs. They handle all recruitment tasks from job posting to onboarding and help companies concentrate on their business growth. With their expertise and years of experience, they streamline the hiring process and save time and resources for the company.
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This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
This insightful presentation is designed to equip entrepreneurs with the essential knowledge and tools needed to accurately value their businesses. Understanding business valuation is crucial for making informed decisions, whether you're seeking investment, planning to sell, or simply want to gauge your company's worth.
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Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
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4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
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2. 2
• MODERATOR DAN GOTTLIEB
• Chief Operating Officer, EDR
PANELISTS:
• LISA A. PENDERGAST
• Executive Director
• Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC)
• MICHAEL P. FLOOD
• Deputy Executive Director
• Commercial Real Estate Finance Council
OUR SPEAKERS
4. 4
MEGA TRENDS
• Sharing economy, collaborative economy – Air B&B, WeWork – multi-configurable
spaces and flexible leases
• E-commerce -Telecommuting, Driverless Cars
• Demographic Shifts -- Millennials and Baby Boomer
REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS
• Capital developments, alternative lenders, taxes, infrastructure
PROTRACTED ECONOMIC RECOVERY GIVES LEGS TO CYCLE
• Prolonged period of low rates informed by weaker/volatile global markets
• Cautiously optimistic that industry can continue to grow
• Fundraising declines as focus turns to allocation – niche markets for returns
• Non-residential construction spending to grow at a slower pace amidst caution
KEY CRE FINANCE MARKET TRENDS
5. 5
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN U.S. CRE/MULTIFAMILY
• Chinese (Life Cos) largest group of foreign investors in 2016 at $19.2b, up 10%
• Safety (15% outside investment limit), diversify away from slowing economy,
depreciating yuan, $1b+ buys
• 2nd largest was Canada at $13.1b (Forbes)
• FIRPTA and EB5 developments
FEDERAL RESERVE / REGULATORS CITE CAUTION
• Loosening credit risk underwriting practices
• CRE growth and concentration risk on bank portfolios
EXPANSION OF LENDER TYPES
REDUCED CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES
KEY CRE FINANCE MARKET TRENDS
6. 6
OVERALL CRE PICTURE FOR 2017
• 55% believe CRE property markets have peaked
(Especially in multifamily and hotel assets)
• 67% expect economy to perform at least somewhat better than in ‘16
CRE CAPITAL AVAILABILITY AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
ATTRACTIVENESS OF CRE DEBT
• Majority expect domestic investment in debt & equity to be about the same
this year vs. 2016 (66%; 67%)
• Expectations for foreign investment in debt and equity are higher
• 72% believe 50-75% of 2017 CMBS maturing loans will pay off
GAUGING SENTIMENT: CREFC MARKET
OUTLOOK
7. 7
GAUGING SENTIMENT: CREFC MARKET
OUTLOOK
LOAN ORIGINATION VOLUMES
• Expected to be healthy, even outpacing 2016
• Exceptions: banks, multifamily, hotel and construction lending.
• 84% anticipate CMBS issuance of $50b-$100b in 2017,
• Plurality predict $75b-$100b
INTEREST RATES
• ~80% of respondents expect interest rates to rise 25-100 bps
• Majority anticipate some impact on business performance.
EXTERNAL FACTORS OF MOST CONCERN
• Contagion
• Geopolitical trends
8. 8
LOAN ORIGINATIONS ENDED 2016 HEALTHY
• Lower in 2016 by just 1% compared to full-year 2015
• Down 7% in 4Q16
REFLECTS DECLINE IN CRE/MULTIFAMILY TRANSACTION VOLUME
• Lower YOY of 8% to $434.96 billion
LOAN ORIGINATION VOLUME DIPS MODESTLY
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YOY Q4 Q3 to Q4 YTD-YTD
2013 123 167 166 223 16% 34% 15%
2014 122 164 193 246 11% 27% 7%
2015 182 210 217 293 19% 35% 24%
2016 182 212 227 272 -7% 20% -1%
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations Index
Percentage ChangeOrigination Volume Index
(2001 Avg. Qtr * 100)
9. 9
1. CMBS MORTGAGE
ORIGINATIONS FELL IN
2016
2. PORTFOLIO LENDERS &
GSE LENDERS THRIVE
3. NEW ALTERNATIVE
LENDERS RISE
SHIFTS IN LENDING SOURCES
YOY Q4 Q3 to Q4 YTD-YTD
CMBS
2013 15 35 33
2014 6 -3 20
2015 -2 3 6
2016 -2 5 -15
Commercial Banks
2013 54 44 32
2014 -7 59 6
2015 82 50 59
2016 -17 37 6
Life Insurance Companies
2013 40 8 25
2014 8 16 2
2015 19 17 23
2016 -6 13 0
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac
2013 -43 48 -18
2014 119 49 33
2015 24 90 59
2016 4 8 10
Source. Real Capital Analytics.
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers
Originations Index by Lender Type
Percentage Change
10. 10
U.S. RANKS 11TH GLOBALLY IN INFRASTRUCTURE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
88%
83%
77%
74%
63%
60%
58%
54%
Quality of Infrastructure
Consumer Demand
Availability of Skilled Workforce
Regulations That Encourage or Discourage Development
Tax Structure (Development Incentives, Ongoing Tax
Burden)
Quality of Government (Transparency, Accountability,
Service)
Quality of Schools
Availability of Recreation and Cultural Activities
Quality of Infrastructure Is a Significant Driver of Real Estate Investment
Source. Urban Land Institute and EY, 2014.
11. 11
INFRASTRUCTURE & REAL ESTATE POSITIVE TWO-WAY
RELATIONSHIP
• Power
• Transportation
• Telecommunications
• Water Supply Networks
FUELS JOB CREATION AND STIMULATES ECONOMY
BI-PARTISAN SUPPORT BY HOW FUNDED?
• Public-Private Partnerships
• Public Financing - Direct Federal Spending
• Tax incentives
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
13. 13
EXIT DODD-FRANK, ENTER CHOICE ACT 2.0?
FINANCIAL CHOICE ACT OF 2017
• Repeals and replaces (or reforms) Dodd-Frank
• Sponsored by House Financial Services Chair Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)
• 2nd version of a proposal first introduced in 2016
Then focus mainly relief for well-capitalized institutions
MAIN FOCUS OF V2 STILL CAPITAL RULES / SIFI DESIGNATION
ALSO ADDRESSES:
• Repeal of risk-retention requirements (except for RMBS)
• Volcker rule
• Options for ending conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
CMBS REFINEMENTS TO RISK RETENTION LIKELY COURSE
• RMBS risk retention not addressed by CHOICE ACT 2.0
14. 14
GSE REFORM A ‘PRIORITY’ FOR SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE CHAIR
• April 27, “Housing finance is one of those areas that has greater potential than
many of the others.” Senator Crapo (R-ID), Banking Committee Chair
BOTH PARTIES AGREE GSE MULTIFAMILY PERFORMANCE EXCEPTIONAL
• Business model works
Fully privatize or keep the Agency’s “government sponsored”
COMPETING ISSUES:
• ACA, Tax Reform, CHOICE Act 2.0, Flood Insurance, Government Funding, Debt
Ceiling
~$113B 2016 FREDDIE MAC K AND FANNIE MAE GEMS ISSUANCE
• Outpaces private-label CMBS issuance of $76b
GSE REFORM TARGET: LATE FALL OR 2018
FUTURE OF MULTIFAMILY GSE LENDING
15. 15
CREFC SURVEY ON GSE REFORM
If Congress put forward a GSE Reform bill, which of the
following would you support for multifamily real estate products?
Partial explicit guarantee / partial private guarantee
Partial implicit guarantee /partial private guarantee
Full government guarantee / no private business
No government guarantee / full private guarantee
Standardized single platform
Separate treatment of residential and commercial real estate
16. 16
TAX REFORM IN ALL ITS ITERATIONS
TAX REFORM FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH & AMERICAN JOBS (TRUMP)
• Corporations
• Reduction of the corporate tax rate to 15%
• Reduction of pass-through entities tax rates to 15%
• Repatriation of corporate earnings
• Conversion to a territorial tax system
• Individual tax code
• Individual income tax rates of 10, 25 and 35%
• Greater childcare tax credits
• Repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
• Repeal of estate taxes
• No change to interest deduction and savings plan treatment.
HOUSE HAS ITS OWN PLAN, SENATE STILL PULLING ONE TOGETHER